Free Picks for Friday, September 1st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Alex Smart
Navy vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: Navy -12½
A lot has been made about Navy only returning 9 starters , but that is of no matter to me, as the recruiting class that Niumatalolo has on board,is more than capable of taking out lower tier opponents with ease via a triple option offense that is extremely hard to stop, when not having experienced it regularly ie ( Florida Atlantic). I expect Zach Abey The 6'2", 212-pound junior who after being thrown into his first game because of injury to the Middies starter struggled in his proverbial first kick at the cat. But going forward after that ugly effort he performed much better in the Armed Forces Bowl, rushing for 114 yards and passing for another 159 and looks primed to be even smoother this season, behind a deep crew of powerful backs. On defense, Navy has 6 returning starters and look primed for a stellar season.
I know a lot has been made about Lane Kiffin the new coach of Florida Atlantic, but he will have some monumental problems trying to reformulate a FAU front four that was disastrous last season, allowing close to 3,000 rushing yards and 37 scores. Early on in this season, Im betting Lanes D is not ready for what's coming their way.
I'm projecting that Navy puts 28 or more points on the board-FLA ATLANTIC is 0-10 ATS L/10 when they allow 28 or more points.
A home team Florida Atlantic - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 6-30 ATS dating back 25 seasons.FLA ATLANTIC is also 0-6 ATS L/6 in home lined games.
Doc's Sports
Washington vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +27½
Just do not believe that Rutgers will get run off the field on opening week in a true home game for them. Washington is loaded once again but this was only a 35 point victory for them last year in Seattle. Many people do not even expect the Huskies to win the PAC-12 this season and I see them winning this game by just 21-24 points. The Scarlet Knights are in year two under Chris Ash and they and I expect them to improve upon their two wins from 2016. Washington is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on field turf.
Joe Everett
Boston College at Northern Illinois
Play: Under 52
Steve Addazio runs an NFL style defense with players like All-American defensive end Harold Landry (1st round talent) and senior linebacker Connor Strachan who led the team in tackles last year. Second year defensive coordinator Jim Reid runs a 4-3 defense with a lot of Oklahoma looks and line stunts to keep offensive linemen on their toes. The Eagles will get a Northern Illinois team that lost their leading passer, leading rusher and leading 1,000-yard receiver (Kenny Golladay) from last season. The Huskies are returning first team All-MAC offensive tackle Max Scharping and senior runningback Jordan Huff did manage 6.3 yards per carry last year but they have no proven passing game.
NIU will be playing right into the strength of Boston College’s defense and that’s their front seven, which held opponents to 109 rushing yards per game and just 25 points a clip. The Huskies defense returns seven starters, they have 30 returning lettermen on that side of the ball and their entire secondary from last year is back intact. Northern Illinois was a poor rushing defense, so pounding the rock will be exactly what the Eagles will look to do with both of their leading rushers back from last year as well as four returning starters on the offensive line. BC has an unproven quarterback in Darius Wade and their passing game is likely to be non-existent again this year.
The last meeting between these two schools was a 17-14 Boston College win at Chestnut Hill and that was a Northern Illinois team that ended up averaging 31.1 points per game in 2015. This total opened up as low as 47 points and has done nothing but go up to 52 and 51½ at the moment. With two teams that lack a passing attack and the slow plodding pace of Boston College likely to rub off on the Huskies here, the UNDER is a quality look featuring two suspect quarterbacks in what should be a final score in the 23-17 range for an Eagles’ win.
Greg Shaker
Washington / Rutgers Over 28 1st Half
UW Signal Caller Browning did not look so Spiffy verses Alabama but he did have a Bad Shoulder in that game and he was playing against the ALABAMA Defense. Rutgers is a far cry from that. The Huskies will score points on Friday Night, lot's of them. But will the Scarlet Knights do the same? We say yes. This team was DEAD LAST in their conference in 2016 Offense but Former Minnesota HC Jerry Hill takes over the reigns as Offensive Coordinator. He's got some Talented RB's to work with and Deep Threat Grant to spread the field. Bolin in at QB after 6 starts at Louisville will spark this team.
Mike Lundin
Angels vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -105
The Los Angeles Angels are coming off a three-game sweep of the A's, but they've had a day to cool down (LAA 1-7 in its last eight games following an off day) and I think they're in for a tough matchup against another AL West rival at Texas Friday night.
The Rangers hand the ball to Cole Hamels. The left-hander is 6-0 behind a 3.04 ERA in eight home starts on the season, and he's 2-0 while allowing just three runs through 21 2/3 innings of work in three starts against LAA. The Rangers are 24-6 in Hamels' last 30 home starts.
The Halos turn to another left-hander in Tyler Skaggs (1-4, 4.25 ERA) who was charged with five runs (four earned) in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-3 loss when pitching opposite Hamels on August 21. In total he's posted a 5.87 ERA in three starts covering 15 1/3 frames against the Rangers on the season.
The Rangers are 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Michael Alexander
Washington vs. Rutgers
Play: Washington -27
There is always the chance that huge chalks when opening on the road in weekday games, may come up a bit flat, early, only to chase the spot for the remainder of the game. However, if ever a team was focused for a seemingly "nothing" game, the Huskies are that team. They've had to live with their poor showing in last year's semifinal loss to Alabama, in which a 7-0 lead turned into a 24-7 loss. They are +244 points ATS in their last 26 games, have 14 returning starters, including their very good QB Browning (43 touchdowns with only 9 interceptions last year). The Knights have a 40-16 points per game deficit in their last 18 lined games.
Rob Vinciletti
Boston College vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Under 51
Both teams have inexperience on the offensive side of the ball. B.C Has a powerful defense that returns 7 starters. The Eagles have stayed under in 13 of 17 on turf, 9 of 12 vs MAC Conference teams and 8 of 9 as a favorite. The Huskies have stayed under in 3 of 4 vs ACC Teams and the last 3 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7. They will have problems moving the ball vs a staunch B.C Defense. The Huskies are improving on defense and should play well here at home. Look for this game to stay under.
Jim Feist
Cardinals at Giants
Pick: Under
This is a good park for pitchers and St. Louis is in town with a Top 10 pitching staff in team ERA. You won't see much of starter Jack Flaherty, a reliever, but the bullpen is deep. The Under is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. San Francisco has one of the worst offenses in baseball. Chris Stratton (3.82 ERA) or Johnny Cueto are on the mound, both with above-average stuff. San Francisco is on an 8-2 run under the total and don't look for much offense in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
Atlanta vs. Chicago
Play: Atlanta +183
The Braves Mike Foltynewicz got back on track with just 1 earned run allowed in his most recent start. Though he has had his share of inconsistency this season, when Foltynewicz is in good current form he tends to pitch well in stretches. Keep in mind that the Braves right-hander has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 18 of his 25 starts this season. The Cubs will have John Lackey on the mound in this one and he has given up 10 earned runs in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. The Braves are 12-9 in Friday games this season while Chicago is an ugly 8-13 in Friday games on the year. Upset potential at a big dog payback is the story here!
Cappers Club
Royals vs. Twins
Play: Twins +111
We have went with the Twins twice this week and have cashed, and on Friday we will go back to the well for more.
Everyone has counted the Twins out all year, and somehow they just keep rolling. They come into this game having won four games in a row, and in this one they will extend it to five.
On the mound for the Twins is Dillon Gee who has pitched well this year. He has a 3.51 ERA this year, and will probably be able to lower it even more.
The Royals bats have gone cold, and just this week they had four games in a row where they didn't score a run.
The Twins will have no issues running up the score in this one.
Some trends to note. Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 overall. Twins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
Brandon Shively
St. Louis vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco +100
San Francisco sends out Johnny Cueto, who returns to the rotation after making his last start back on 7/14. Cueto has been one of the most stable starters for the Giants and his stuff can be filthy. He's turned in 10 quality starts this season, really working deep into games for the
He'll be going against Jack Flaherty, who will be promoted from the minors for this start. He's bounced from Double A to Triple A this year and certainly will have plenty of nerves running here in this one. He throws in the mid 90s and length will be an issue for him as these Giants hitters will really look to work the counts on him.
Look for San Francisco to pick apart the rookie.
Brandon Lee
Royals vs. Twins
Play:Twins +107
Minnesota is worth a look here. The Twins are playing with a ton of momentum right now, as they secured their 4th straight win in walk-off fashion last night. They have also now won 7 straight at home. While Minnesota has been playing excellent baseball over the last month, the Royals are in a major funk and just lost a big home series against the Rays. KC will send out Jason Hammel for the series opener and that's a big edge for the Twins, who have hit Hammel hard this season. He's faced them 3 times and allowed 15 runs on 21 hits and 9 walks in 13 1/3 innings of work. Minnesota will send out Dillon Gee, who doesn't have great numbers, but has only made 3 starts and is facing a Royals team that is averaging 1.6 runs/game and hitting a mere .196 as a team over their last 7 games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Charlotte +14 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
Targeting overreactions is a hallmark of our strategy and given what Eastern Michigan achieved in 2016, it applies to them here. Eastern Michigan was one of 2016’s renaissance teams. The Eagles won more games in one season than they had in the previous four campaigns combined. EMU finished 7-6, capped off by their first bowl bid in 29 years when they appeared in the Bahamas Bowl. Though Eastern Michigan had lost the contest by just four points, the invitation in itself was a huge victory for the program. In 2015, the Eagles had won just one game. That one victory reinforced the notion that the Eagles were regarded as one of college football’s quintessential cupcakes. This prejudice made Eastern Michigan a great value play in the early stages of 2016 given the fact we had an opportunity to take back enhanced points. However, that day may be dead and gone in the short going. With Head Coach Chris Creighton back at the helm for his fourth season, the Eagles are elegantly equipped with much of the talent he utilized to make monumental strides in 2016. As a result, there is rare optimism surrounding Eastern Michigan. Some have argued that they are in fact a dark horse for the MAC crown in 2017.
The outlook on the 49ers has not been met with the same enthusiasm. Charlotte is one of the new kids on the FBS block and like Eastern Michigan prior to 2016, the team from the Queen City is led by an up and coming coach in Brad Lambert that has the program heading in the right direction. In 2015, the 49ers joined the FBS and won just two games. In 2016, the 49ers finished 4-8 and managed to go .500 in conference play in Conference USA. Now Charlotte enters 2017 looking to earn its first bowl bid in school history. In doing so, the 49ers are also looking for a signature win. Knocking off one of 2016’s Cinderella teams could be a huge exclamation point to hit the ground running in 2017. The fact remains that not many know who the 49ers even are and that in itself lowers their stock. Furthermore, the fact that Eastern Michigan created such headlines in 2016, the former ugly duckling that bares the semblance of a beautiful swan is an even more popular selection in this market by virtue of sentimentalism alone. Lastly, Eastern Michigan’s 39-17 thrashing of Charlotte in 2016 is a compelling argument to back the chalk too. All told, you will be paying a few extra points to back the favorite here, which rarely comes recommended. This fast-rising 49ers outfit can play EMU’s game and keep it scary close.
COLORADO -3½ over Colorado St.
We are going to continue our attack on Colorado State, as we are in position to take back a short-priced favorite due to an overreaction from last week’s easy win and cover by CSU. Many analysts and prognosticators have bolstered the claim that this year may be the year that Colorado State takes a step forward. After lambasting Oregon State in its season opener, Colorado State’s 58-point offensive spectacle provided plenty of credence to back up some of those lofty claims.
Colorado comes in off a stellar season in 2016 but the closing acts were filled with disappointment. After putting together a resurgent campaign that saw Colorado accumulate 10 victories for the first time since 2001, the Buffs would culminate their efforts with two blowout losses suffered in the Pac-12 Championship and the Valero Alamo Bowl to Washington and Oklahoma State respectively. Coupling that with the loss of a four-year starter at quarterback in Sefo Liufau to graduation, along with eight other defensive starters, the Rams appear to be in position to pull off the minor upset but we wouldn’t be so fast to pull the trigger on the Rams.
The market assessment of this contest is no fluke. The Rocky Mountain Showdown is a high-profile affair played at a venue that plays host to the Denver Broncos. Thus, the oddsmakers are aware that this is the Friday Night marquee matchup with lots of market money at stake. The books are bound to be sharper so the initial offering of the Rams getting eight points was no mistake. Nevertheless, the offering was quickly gobbled up at a price that seemed too good to be true. Chances are that it is. CSU laying waste to Oregon State is not much of a statement. Oregon State went just 4-8 in 2016 and won just three games in Pac-12 play against an atypical Oregon, an Arizona team that went 1-8 in conference play, and against a very accommodating California defense that still required overtime to declare a winner. This is also an Oregon State team that fielded a defensive operation that gave up 30.5 points per game and surrendered 429.2 yards of total offense per contest, as well. Colorado State will be taking a step up in competition and you can bet that Buffs Coach Mike McIntyre won’t be buying into the hype machine surrounding Mike Bobo and company in the same manner is which this market is. The Rams defense again looked vulnerable in allowing 456 yards to Oregon State but the market is focusing in on the final score, which is something we’ll try to take advantage of. Mike McIntyre also has film on Colorado State’s win last week while Mike Bobo has no such luxury.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels -1½ +151 over TEXAS
When something doesn’t make sense, alarm bells go off over here and this is one of those games in which the line makes no sense whatsoever. That has us looking towards the side that the books have taken a “position” on.
Cole Hamels is at home here, where he is 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA. Hamels has pedigree, market familiarity, and an overall 9-2 record this season with a 3.78 ERA. The Rangers are also at home after taking two of three from the popular Astros at a neutral site. Furthermore, Hamels is a southpaw and he’ll face an Angels’ squad that is dead last in MLB in OPS versus lefties. We also see a heavy market lean towards the Rangers, yet the Halos opened as the chalk and at the time of this writing, they’re still the chalk. Why?
Tyler Skaggs has a fraction of the market recognition that Hamels has. Tyler Skaggs also has one victory this year in 10 starts, not to mention a 5.87 ERA over his last three starts. The Angels are 31-34 on the road while the Rangers are 35-29 at home. One could break this one down 100 ways and not come up with a valid reason as to why the Angels are road chalk here. If lines are based on starters, Texas must be favored. If lines are based on starters, plus home-field advantage, plus home/road splits, Texas must be favored but they’re not. Why? Again, the books have taken a position here and we want to be on the same side as they are. You should want to be also. We could play the Angels straight up in a near pick-em game but we like to go for the kill so pencil us in on the run-line. If you are on board for this game, you may want to wait until later in the day because by game time, we have a suspicion that the Rangers will be favored.
COLORADO -1½ +210 over Arizona
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
22-36 + 24.75 units