Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, September 22nd, 2017

BEN BURNS

Ottawa vs. Winnipeg
Play: Winnipeg -7

On Friday, north of the border, Ottawa will visit Winnipeg. The Redblacks are off an impressive 29-11 road win on Sunday. However, keep in mind that victory came against a Montreal squad which has really been struggling of late. Also, lets not forget that the Redblacks are still a sub-500 team. Now, they play on an extra short week against a very well-rested Winnipeg team. The Bombers, who won by three at Ottawa back in August, were last in action way back on 9/9. They destroyed Saskatchewan by a 48-28 margin in that one. With the schedule in their favor, provided that the line doesn't climb above a touchdown, consider laying the points, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Indian Cowboy

Virginia at Boise St
Play: Under 51.5

Do you think Virginia remembers their throttling against Boise State the last time they played in 2015 by a score of 14-56? It was ugly. Note, Virginia's strength is their defense, which is ranked 45th in the nation in total yards and top 30 in passing yards allowed. They struggle in containing the run, which means that Boise State likely will do just that and chew up clock. This is the reason why this total is so low because Virginia is going to play quality defense likely here as they do not want to be embarrassed again and defense will be the strongest element of their gameplan here in containing Boise State. Note that Boise State also gave up more than 40 points to Washington State, their last quality opponent, and they understand they have to contain Virginia's top 30 passing attack. This means Boise State will probably allow Virginia to run the ball more and eat up clock as well. And, Boise State is aware that if they have any chance in this game that they need to play quality defense unlike what they did against their last quality opponent. This is also a great public fade as well as the public is on the Over on the late game, which typically bodes trouble. The Under is 10-4-1 for the Cavs in their last 15 road games and the Under is 12-3 for the Broncos in their last 15 home games.

Alan Harris

Hamilton vs. B.C. Lions
Play: B.C. Lions -12

The BC Lions will look will look to get things back on track after losing four of their last five games when they take on the lowly Hamilton Tiger-Cats at BC Place in Vancouver, BC on Friday night. The Lions have posted an 8-3 ATS record in their last eleven games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have gone an excellent 12-3-1 ATS in their last sixteen games following a straight up loss. The Tiger-Cats, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Friday as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven Friday night games and they are an awful 3-8-2 ATS in their last thirteen games following an ATS loss. They have also failed to cover the spread in eight of their last eleven road games and they are just 5-12-2 ATS in their last nineteen games overall going back to the middle of the 2016 season. Throw in the fact that the Lions are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings between the two teams and we're laying the points with them here to get the home win and cover in Vancouver on Friday evening.

DAVE COKIN

CUBS AT BREWERS
PLAY: CUBS -115

This is how a slump will often begin. The Milwaukee Brewers have been a major surprise all season and they’re still very much alive in the hunt for the NL Central title as well as the second wild card berth in the upcoming post-season.

But the last two nights have been tough to swallow for the Brewers. The bullpen has simply not delivered when needed and Milwaukee has turned back to back wins into back to back losses.

I think the pressure could be mounting for this team. That’s not likely to be a problem for the reigning world champion Cubs

John Lackey has not had a banner season for the Cubs, but the veteran righty has looked sharper lately. Lackey has always been a guy I consider to be a money pitcher and I expect him to do well tonight. Brandon Woodruff has been a nice late season callup for Milwaukee. But he’ll be facing the biggest pressure start of his young career to date tonight. I can’t say I trust the rookie to a great extent in this situation.

I don’t think there’s much question that the Cubs will be a big public side tonight, so this won’t be falling into the value classification. But I’m willingly playing the role of square tonight. The Cubs are the free play for the day.

Ray Monohan

Rangers vs. A's
Play: A's -127

AL West foes battle and Oakland here has value at this low juice.

Nick Martinez gets the ball for the Rangers and he enters play with a 5.47 ERA. Martinez has bounced from the bullpen to the starting rotation here in the month of September, which is not the most ideal situation. Martinez has let up 4 runs in each of his last 2 outings, one of which was just 0.2 innings out of the pen.

This Athletics team has been playing hard all season long and they put up 4.6 runs per game. This team is anything but a pushover and should have a lot of success here against Martinez given how aggressive they are.

Some trends to note. Rangers are 0-4 in Martinezs last 4 starts vs. American League West. Rangers are 0-5 in Martinezs last 5 starts.

Texas has struggled when Martinez is on the mound, plain and simple.

Vic Duke

Utah vs. Arizona
Play: Utah -3½

Utah/Arizona 10:30: Utah's strong run-stop-unit (allowing 49.3 YPG) will be tested against the explosive Arizona run game led by versatile QB Brandon Dawkins. We'll look for Utah's defense to be up for the challenge. They're allowing 245 YPG on a stingy 3.8 YPP. Not sure can say the same about Arizona's defense which allows 401 YPG on 5.7 YPP. Arizona has lost the recruiting battle for the last few years and the quality of star athlete has diminished. Utah the better team here with QB Tyler Huntley running the show with go-to WR Carrington. Utah's a sweet 14-3 ATS on the road against teams with winning records. And they've covered the last 4 road games. Arizona a mere 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home tilts and just 5-11 ATS in September. Tread lightly though: Arizona has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series.

Brandon Shively

Colorado vs. San Diego
Pick: Over 8.5

Friday night we should see an opportunity for a lot of run scoring chances here.

Particularly the Rockies side of things should see a lot of traffic on the bases. Jordan Lyles goes for the Padres and he's been abysmal as of late. He's let up 11 runs in his last 9.0 innings of work and got knocked around for 7 runs in his last outing.

The Padres will take on Jon Gray, who has been a much worse pitcher on the road. Gray enters play with an ERA of 4.32 away from Coors Field.
Expect plenty of traffic on the bases in this one.

Jim Feist

Rangers at Athletics
Pick: Over 9.5

Texas has a powerhouse offense and will need it with Nick Martinez (3-6, 5.47 ERA) on the mound. He has allowed 8 runs on 11 his his last two starts (6 innings). Oakland is 6-0 over the total at home against a righty starter. Kendall Graveman (4.39 ERA) goes here withh batters hitting .283 off him. And the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

SPORTS WAGERS

ARIZONA +3½ over Utah

Utah is 3-0 as they get set to fire up their Pac-12 schedule but the Utes are a great example of how college win/loss records can be very deceiving. Through three games, Utah has played nobody of substance, including in-state rival BYU. They have double-digit wins over both San Jose State and North Dakota, both of which are a notch above Division II. In their only game where they were not favored by 20 or more, the Utes struggled against BYU barely covering as -4½ point road chalk. BYU is putrid and cannot score, posting just 40 points in four games with 20 or those coming against Portland State as a -35 point favorite. The combined record of Utah's cupcake opponents is 3-8 and the three wins of said opponents came against some of the worst teams in the country. Now the Utes come in ranked #23 in the country. You will always pay a price to get behind ranked versus unranked and that applies here as well. Utah is not close to being one of the top 23 teams in America.

Arizona, on the other hand, is 2-1 having lost to Houston 19-16 in Week 2 as a one-point pooch. In their other two games, the Wildcats also played a pair of cupcakes but they pasted both Texas-El Paso and Northern Arizona by 47 and 38 points respectively. The Arizona offense put up over 60 points in both of those games as they easily covered the 25 and 26 points lines. The defensive battle with Houston was a surprise, as the total in that game was 67, but the Wildcats' offense still had a good day with 371 yards in the air and another 152 on the ground, despite not putting a bunch of points on the board. That loss to Houston and the fact it came at home has lowered 'Zona's value in the market, which we’ll attempt to take advantage of. Entering this game as a ranked team instantly gives credibility to the Utes in the market but that superficial number is just that. The Utes are not that good and certianly not worthy of this billing on the road.

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota -1½ +111 over DETROIT

The AL Wild Card race has basically come down to Minnesota versus Texas, the Angels and K.C with Minnesota holding a 2½-game lead. Twins Manager, Paul Molitor has been outmaneuvering everyone all season long and that figures to continue here in this very winnable and important series. Molitor’s baseball IQ was off the charts when he was a player and it’s still off the charts. After watching him all season long, we’re convinced he’s the best in the game and that matters this time of year.

Daniel Norris has started since early July. He returned in early September to make four relief appearances but the Tigers were getting pounded in all of them but one. He came into games that the Tigers lost 10-4, 8-2 and 11-1. Norris has been a physical mess since his Sept 2014 debut. He had off-season surgery for thyroid cancer, a fractured back in March of that same year and also suffered an oblique strain last June. This year he’s been dealing on and off with a strained groin the entire season and when he has been healthy enough to pitch, it hasn’t been pretty. Norris brings his .300 oppBA, 1.67 WHIP, 6.02 xERA and poor control into this start, his first in roughly 10 weeks. The Tigers need bodies to finish out the season and that’s what Norris provides right now.

While nobody was watching, the Twins added a third dangerous arm to their prospective playoff rotation. While people were fawning over adorable, ancient, rotund, polygamous Bartolo Colon and mulling whether the team could cobble together a competent fifth starting slot, Kyle Gibson evolved into the solid, efficient, mid-rotation innings-eater he always ought to have been.

Since being exiled to Triple-A (for the first of two times this season) in early May, Gibson has made 30 starts (27 with the Twins, and three with the Rochester Red Wings), posted a 3.94 ERA, pitched 162 innings, faced 606 batters, struck out 122, walked 58, and induced ground balls on more than half of all batted balls against him.

A career that seemed very much in jeopardy as recently as two months ago now seems to be on a steady, upward trajectory. With any pitcher as broken and removed from his own potential as Gibson was earlier this season, it’s hard to put much faith on a recent surge but it’s legit.

Gibson has a fairly high natural arm slot, but over his career, he’s somewhat lost touch with it, and has even artificially raised it—with disastrous results. When Gibson releases the ball from a higher sheer height, it’s usually because he’s either tilting his spine sharply to the left (carrying him off a straight line toward his target and wasting some of the energy in his motion) or not bending the back enough at all. Not the way the release point rose throughout 2016. That was Gibson (hampered by pain in his shoulder and lower back) simply landing on a stiff front leg, staying high throughout the drive phase of his delivery, and throwing without finishing strongly. Recognizing that issue, Gibson consulted a former coach from his amateur days this winter and landed at the Florida Baseball Ranch. There, he retrained his shoulder muscles to absorb the energy of completing his release and allowing his arm to recoil. The resulting arm path was a bit lower and considerably easier to repeat, and it began to pay off as he tapped into other mechanical improvements later in the season. Gibson has always relied heavily on his sinker and that is still in play. On video, you can see a mild version of Max Scherzer’s head movement from Gibson lately, and the reason is that (like Scherzer) Gibson has added a bunch of well-directed energy to the final phase of his delivery, snapping his upper half toward the plate as if spring-loaded. The most obvious change Gibson has made, of course, is one that can easily be observed without an especially keen eye for pitching mechanics or an intimate knowledge of Gibson’s medical history. He’s become a five-pitch pitcher, especially over the last two months or so. All of what you just read has progressively made Gibson a reliable and effective five-pitch pitcher that will now face a bunch of young and inexperienced hitters. Minnesota figures to score a bunch off of Norris and that putrid ‘pen while Detroit can’t get out of their own way these days.

Xpert Picks

Utah / Arizona Under 57.5

Utah has gone UNDER the total in 74 of the last 133 games coming off a win in their last game and they have gone UNDER the total in 30 of the last 45 games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their last game. Utah has gone UNDER the total in 51 of the last 93 games when playing in the 1st half of the season and they are only allowing an average of 15 points a game on defense this season.

Winning Angle

Virginia +12.5

Virginia has won 95 of the last 155 games when playing in the 1st half of the season and they have won 77 of the last 137 games coming off a win against the spread in their last game. Virginia has won 60 of the last 107 non-conference games and they are averaging 431 yards a game on offense this season.

Arizona +3.5

Arizona has won 61 of the last 95 games when playing in the 1st month of the season and they have won 97 of the last 162 home games. Arizona has won 35 of the last 53 games coming off a road win in their last game and they are averaging 47 points a game on offense this season.

The Sports Capper

Utah / Arizona Under 57.5

Utah has gone UNDER the total in 54 of the last 97 road games and they have gone UNDER the total in 73 of the last 138 games vs. conference opponents. Utah has gone UNDER the total in 46 of the last 78 games coming off a home win in their last game and they have gone UNDER the total in 33 of the last 57 games coming off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

Dr Bob

Virginia @ Boise St.

1* BOISE STATE -12 31 Virginia 13

Strong Opinion – Under (52½)

It appears as if Brett Rypien will be back at quarterback for Boise State after sitting out nearly two full games with a concussion. The line jumped up a couple of points on that news but I would have preferred to play Boise at a lower number with Montell Cozart at quarterback since I don’t think Rypien makes a difference to the offense. Cozart actually has better compensated passing numbers this season (6.7 yards per pass play on 51 pass plays against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB) than Rypien has (5.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and Cozart adds a running element (187 yards on 28 runs) that Rypien does not possess. Rypien’s sample size this season is small (37 pass plays) and he averaged 8.6 yppp in 2016 (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp) so I still rate the Broncos’ as a better passing team with Rypien.

However, I do not expect Rypien to be nearly as good as he was last season when the Broncos had two elite receivers in Thomas Sperbeck (10.2 yards per target on 125 targets) and Cedrick Wilson (11.9 ypt on 95 targets). Rypien still has Wilson to throw to and he’s been just as good (12.0 ypt on 23 targets) but the next 3 wide receivers have combined to average just 5.7 ypt on 21 targets, which is a massive drop-off from what Sperbeck averaged. Boise’s pass attack won’t be nearly as good as last season unless another receiver steps up and the rushing attack, without Cozart helping, is also worse.

Boise lost RB Jeremy McNichols (1709 yards at 5.4 ypr in ’16) to the NFL after his junior season and new backs Mattison and Wolphin have combined for a dismal 3.9 ypr through the first 3 games. Overall the Boise offense rates the same with either quarterback because of what Cozart adds with his feet and the Broncos are clearly not as good on the attack side of the ball as they were last season.

Virginia’s defense is mediocre at best, as the 20.7 points per game they’ve allowed through 3 games is not indicative of their level of play. The Cavaliers have allowed 5.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team and last season that unit was 0.3 yppl worse than average. Overall, the math projects a modest 5.7 yppl for Boise State in this game.

While the Boise State offense doesn’t figure to be as good this season, the Broncos defense looks significantly improved. Boise has yielded just 4.2 yards per play against Troy, Washington State, and New Mexico and held the best of those offenses (WSU) to just 4.8 yppl in their overtime loss to the Cougars (just 3.8 yppl in the other two games combined). Virginia looked incredibly good offensively in last week’s 38-18 win over Connecticut with 621 yards at 8.7 yppl but the Cavaliers have averaged just 5.6 yppl in 3 games even without those incredible numbers from last week skewing their average upwards. Virginia actually rates at 0.7 yppl worse than average when you take into account that the three teams the Cavaliers have faced would combine to allow 6.3 yppl to an average team. I don’t see the Cavs having much success in this game against what appears to be a very good Boise State defense.

Overall, my math favors Boise State by 15 ½ points and I get 19 points using this year’s games only. The Broncos also apply to a 151-63-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Virginia applies to a 101-212-5 ATS situation. I’ll consider Boise State a 1-Star Best Bet at -12 or less and as a Strong Opinion from -12.5 to -14.

I also see this as a low scoring game given that Boise State’s offense is not as good while their defense is underrated. Boise is also playing at a much slower pace so far this season and their games have averaged 11.3 points below the over/under total (excluding the total points in overtime against Washington State). I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.

Note: The line was at -12 this morning but has since moved out of Best Bet range up to -13. I still consider Boise a Strong Opinion at that number.