Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, September 23rd, 2016

Cal Sports

USC / Utah Under 46.5

Utah’s offense has been far from impressive scoring 24 points on Southern Utah, 20 points against BYU and while they did put up 34 points last week it came against my #118 defense of San Jose St. The Utes defense however has done what was expected holding Southern Utah and San Jose St to 8.5 PPG and allowing only 328 yards and 19 points to my #48 offense, BYU. USC meanwhile is already playing their third TOP 15 defense so we basically know what to expect. The Trojans totaled a combined 16 points versus Alabama and Stanford and now they travel for a second straight week. USC HC Clay Helton has also made a QB change naming freshman Sam Darnold this week’s starter over Max Brown and while Rice-Eccles Stadium is a very tough place to make your first ever start the level of difficulty is amplified by doing so on a short week. Both teams prefer to run the ball and against FBS foes USC has run 67 and 61 plays on offense while Utah has run 65 and 67 plays. While totals can move several points the current number on this game is 46.5 and it’s a valid play at any O/U line of 43.5 or more.

Mike Rose

TCU -13 1st Half

The Horned Frogs have a date at home with Oklahoma next Saturday which sets up to being an elimination game of sorts. Since joining the Big 12, the Horned Frogs check in 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the week before battling the Sooners. Two of those wins and covers just so happened to come against SMU whom they paid a visit to each time.

SMU has played against one of the more laughable schedules in the country (91/128), yet has only managed to put just over 25 points per game on the board and given up just as many. The defense can’t defend the pass and that’s where the Horned Frogs excel with Kenny Hill already going off for over 1000 yards and accounting for 10 total touchdowns. The dual threat is in line for a huge showing this evening if the Mustangs continue to turn the ball over better than two times per game.

Look for TCU to pile up the points in hopes of putting it into cruise control in the second half to give the No. 1s time off to rest up for next week’s huge brawl with Boomer Sooner. SMU’s wilted under the Friday night lights covering one of its last five appearances, and stands just 6-15-1 ATS the last 22 times it ran up against a Big 12 opponent. TCU has bludgeoned SMU by the aggregate score of 160-54 over the L/3 meetings, but backing the Horny Toads in the first half looks to be the way to go in this matchup.

Will Rogers

Texas Christian vs. Southern Methodist
Pick: Texas Christian

TCU: The 2-1 Horned Frogs are unranked in the AP poll but a tied for 21st in the latest Coaches’ Poll. Junior QB Kenny Hill has thrown for 1035 yards but just four TDs (with three INTs) through three games. He has added six rushing TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC. TCU has run for 215.7 YPG (on 6.1 YPC) and has 13 rushing TDs on the season. However, TCU will be without the versatile KaVontae Turpin due to a knee injury. He has 16 receptions for 196 yards but maybe more importantly, he is one of the nation's top return specialists. He leads the nation in punt-return average (28.8 yards, one TD) and ranks fifth in kickoff returns (32.8 ). TCU is averaging 46.0 PPG (12th) on 571.7 YPG (4th).

SMU: The Mustangs are also 2-1 to open the 2016 season and while the offense averages 490.7 YPG (28th), it has only translated to 25.3 PPG (ranks 98th!). The defense is allowing 25.0 PPG but is tied for third in the nation with 10 takeaways, including nine INTs. Redshirt freshman QB Ben Hicks has passed for a modest 583 yards with just two TDs and has already been picked off five time. The running game is solid (244.7 YPG on 5.6 YPC) but has produced just three TDs on the ground.

The pick: SMU came up woefully short in losing 40-13 at Baylor on September 10, allowing the Bears 536 yards. Not sure we should expect the Mustangs to be any more competitive against the Horned Frogs, even at home. TCU has won 14 of the past 16 meetings between the schools and the last time here in Dallas, won 56-0. Last year’s score in Fort Worth was 56-37. Maybe SMU should rid themselves of these games on the schedule against former SWC rivals? Lay the points.

DAVE COKIN

UTAH -3

This is an interesting game to handicap, as off the power ratings, USC at Utah is lined right about where it ought to be. I think a case can be made that the Utes opened a shade too inexpensively. Apparently, some sharp players felt that way as this line has crept up to -3. That’s right about where I priced it, as I power rated this contest at Utah -3.2.

But going beyond the ratings and focusing on the physical matchup, I think there’s a decent case to be made for the home team. For me, that focus belongs on what’s likely to take place in the trenches, which is so often a great predictor for what will happen in the game.

I’ve watched the USC duels with Alabama and Stanford, and I don’t know else how to say this, but it looked like men vs. boys on the front lines. The Trojans got pushed around by both the Crimson Tide and the Cardinal. That’s reflected in the rushing stats. Alabama won the ground game by a whopping 242-64 margin. Similarly, Stanford dominated that aspect to the tune of 295-117.

This doesn’t bode well for the Men of Troy as they journey to Salt Lake City for this challenge against Utah. It’s not like the Utes have what I’d call a dominant rushing attack. But it’s also not bad and let’s just say that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is no dummy. I’d be very surprised if based on what he and his staff have seen on film, it’s anything other than an effort to ground and pound by the Utes on Friday evening.

I also think that Whittingham vs. Clay Helton could be a bit of a mismatch. I might end being soaking wet with this assessment. But I was pretty vocal about my general disdain for the full time hiring of Helton as the USC head coach last season. That wasn’t meant to be a slap in the face as Helton did a nice job of stabilizing the Trojans last season in the midst of the Steve Sarkisian fiasco.

But that didn’t mean Helton was the ultimate choice to take control of the football program. I felt that USC needed to go higher profile. Time will tell on that assessment. But off the early results, I think I might have it right. True enough, USC was supposed to lose to both Alabama and Stanford. But I wasn’t impressed with the way they lost, and I suspect there’s a real chance this team could struggle to win even half their games. If that’s the way this season unfolds, the natives are going to get very restless very soon. Again.

I would think this particular game has a good chance to be fairly tight as it’s not like the 2016 Utes are any kind of powerhouse. But playing at home with revenge and owning what share looks to me to be an advantage in the trenches it’s a game I expect Utah to win.

Chase Diamond

USC +3

Big game in the Pac-12 Friday Night as the 1-2 USC take on the 3-0 Utah. This line opened at a pk and has gone to 3 in most spots. USC is not as bad as their 1-2 record indicates as they have losses to Alabama and Stanford two very good teams. Utah has not really played anyone with their highlight so far is beating BYU and that was a 20-19 win at home. USC changes QB'S in this game which I feel is big as they go with a red shirt freshman. USC is a money making 13-2-1 ATS as a dog in conference games off a loss. Public is very big on Utah as 67% of the public are backing them. I'll take my chances with the better athletes and a team determined to get a win.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston at Tampa Bay
Play: Boston -116

Boston has won 8 straight and takes on a Tampa team that is 6-18 on Fridays. Road favorites off a road favored win that scored 5 or more runs like Boston are 24-7 vs an opponent off a home win by 2 or more runs. Pomeranz is pitching for the Sox and he has a stellar 2.80 Road era and a 2.55 Eras vs Tampa in his career. Archer for the Rays has lost 11 of 15 vs Boston with a 5.56 career Era. The Rays have lost 11 of his 15 home starts. look for Boston to take the opener.

Sean Murphy

TCU / SMU Under 65

This isn't the same SMU squad we've seen in years' past.

The Mustangs have topped out at 34 points through three games this season and that performance came against North Texas. They'll be hard-pressed to approach that number against the Horned Frogs on Friday night.

TCU bounced back nicely with a decisive win over Iowa State last week after falling in a shootout at Arkansas the week previous. Keep in mind, the Horned Frogs were also burned by San Diego State - albeit in a winning effort - allowing 41 points in Week 1.

Needless to say, TCU knows the challenge that lies before it here. The Horned Frogs need to tighten things up defensively and this appears to be an ideal spot to do just that.

SMU knows that it can ill afford to get involved in a shootout with TCU. The Horned Frogs simply have too significant of a talent, not to mention athleticism, edge.

The last three meetings in this series over the last three years have all played 'over' the total. That's been factored into the number here. I believe it will prove to be too high.

Jim Feist

Rockies at Dodgers
Pick: Over

Colorado is a strong offensive team, tops in the NL and second in baseball in runs scored. The Over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Starter Jon Gray is off a 113-pitch shutout but that was against punchless San Diego. On the road he has a 4.56 ERA walking 35 in 75 innings. LA lefty Scott Kazmir (4.56 ERA) has been battling injuries and is off an 18-9 win over Cincinnati his last start. The Over is 6-2-1 in his last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Matt Josephs

Nationals vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -108

Jameson Taillon gets his first ever crack at the Nationals on Friday as Washington tries to clinch the NL East. Taillon has a 2.95 ERA in nine starts at home with the Buccos winning six of them. Washington hitting just .244 in their last seven games. The Pirates bullpen has been pretty solid for the most part this season. Gio Gonzalez has allowed 13 runs and 21 hits in his last three starts. He's 4-6 with a 4.64 ERA in 15 road outings. Pittsburgh is 19-9 vs. left-handed starters hitting .278 in those games while scoring nearly six runs per contest. The Nats bullpen is 6-13 with a 3.65 ERA on the road this season. The Pirates have won six of their last eight at home in this series. I like their chances on Friday.

David Banks

Utah -3

Two teams headed in very different directions will meet Friday night in Salt Lake City when the 1-2 USC Trojans take on 24th-ranked Utah. It is hard to believe, but the Trojans have won just once in their last five football games. In this season’s second week, USC defeated Utah State, 45-7. Beating the Utes at home will be much tougher and leaves Trojans head coach Clay Helton facing the possibility of being 1-3 heading into October.

Helton will replace his starting quarterback, Max Browne, with redshirt freshman Sam Darnold in an attempt to spark the offense. Taking away the 45 points scored against Utah State, USC put up six against top-ranked Alabama in Week 1 and just 10 in a loss to Pac-12 rival Stanford last week. Browne’s numbers – 63% completions, 111 QB rating – are not terrible, but the Trojans have just sputtered against two of the better defenses in the nation.

The Utes, meanwhile, are off to a third consecutive 3-0 start having defeated Southern Utah, rival BYU, and San Jose State last week. While Helton and Trojans fans hope that Darnold can lead the offense to points, the young QB is going to have to do it against a defense that recorded ten, yes ten, sacks in a 34-17 win over San Jose State.

On offense, Utah has been riding the arm of transfer QB Troy Williams. The former Washington and Santa Monica College quarterback has completed 54-of-86 passes for 723 yards and four touchdowns so far. The running game is solid though none of head coach Kyle Whittingham’s running backs are as good as Devontae Booker, last year’s leading rusher. The Achilles heel for the Utes has been turnovers. Utah has lost nine fumbles in three games. If they manage to hold on to the football, good things will happen on Friday night against USC.

Harry Bondi

Utah -3

Three games into the season, the Trojans are “Team Turmoil.” Following last week’s disheartening loss vs. Stanford in which they failed to top 10 points in a Pac-12 game for just the fourth time in 10 years, players were outwardly grumbling, a few announced they were transferring and in-over-his-head Head Coach Todd Helton benched his starting QB, further complicating matters in what is now a divided locker room. In its two games against quality opponents (Stanford and Alabama), USC has been outscored 79-16, losing to the pointspread by 42 points, and has allowed 537 rushing yards. That doesn’t bode well here tonight against a typically physically, balanced and well-coached Utes team looking for revenge from last year’s 42-24 loss at USC in which it turned the ball over four times. Lay the short number at home in front of a rocking home crowd in Utah.

Bruce Marshall

Utah -3

There cries from angered SC alums and boosters for mobile RS freshman QB Sam Darnold to get a shot have been answered, as previous starter Max Browne goes to the bench. But Darnold is not Lamar Jackson. And since getting the prestigious Troy gig on a full-time basis, former o.c.Clay Helton is 1-4 SU, with reports of nerves fraying internally after the Trojans were beaten soundly once again by Stanford last week. Utah is as physical as ever (10 sacks last week at San Jose State), while former Washington QB Troy Williams continues to flower.

Brad Wilton

After dealing with Alabama and Stanford last week, USC gets the pleasure of hitting Salt Lake City for a date with the Top-25 ranked Utah Utes who are off to a 3-0 start this year, and are looking for revenge.

Last year USC coach Clay Helton debuted with a 42-24 upset win over then ranked #7 Utes, and I like him to have Utah's number once again tonight. I don't see this one ending with nearly as many points, but the Trojans switch at QB to Sam Darnold should pay dividends as the season moves on.

Utah quarterback Troy Williams is a transfer from Washington, and he has been improving with each game under center for Kyle Whittingham's team, but has failed both tries this season as the home favorite, and are now just 2-7 their last 9 when laying points at home!

It's been a brutal schedule for the Trojans, but I don't see them breaking 1-3 from the gate. Take USC plus the points, in what could be an outright win for the Men of Troy.

2* USC

Chris Jordan

My free play for Friday night is on the Milwaukee Brewers, over the Cincinnati Reds, in National League Central action.

This is a cheap price to lay against a team that stumbles into town on a three-game losing streak. Cincinnati just enjoyed its final off-day of the season, but arrive after being swept by National League Central champion Chicago and having dropped seven of its last eight overall.

Meanwhile, the Brewers come into this series after a 3-1 victory Thursday over Pittsburgh.

Neither team is headed to the postseason, so at this point it is all about pride. The Brewers are 40-38 and would love nothing more than to finish with a winning record at home. They have a chance to sweep this, as the Reds are 26-48 on the highway this season.

Lay the cheap price, don't list either starting pitcher and take the Brewers to the bank.

5* BREWERS