Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Red Sox over the Rays.
Boston has reeled off 8 straight wins, and those wins all come against division-rivals as they have pretty much sewn up the A.L. East Division heading into this weekend set at Tropicana Field.
The Sox have won 7 of the last 10 series meetings against the Rays, and they catch Tampa having dropped 4 of their last 6 games overall.
Chris Archer takes the hill against a Boston team that he has lost 10 straight decisions against, and Archer is also on the verge of setting a Tampa franchise record for losses, as he enters this start with an 8-18 mark!
Drew Pomeranz is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his 4 games - 3 of them starts - against the Rays, so look for a sharp effort from the lanky southpaw.
Just too much Boston these days, and at this price I cannot make a case against them.
Play the BoSox.
4* BOSTON
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Detroit Tigers, over the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals.
While the Tigers are in the thick of the American League wild-card race, the Royals are dwindling, having lost three straight after a trip to Cleveland to start the week.
Now it's time for these rabid bengals from Motwown to maul Kansas City, and put the champs out of their misery. The Tigers have won four in a row after a quick jaunt to the Twin Cities.
This is a cheap price to lay, and I'll do so without listing pitchers. Take the Tigers.
3* TIGERS
BRANDON LEE
Mariners -132
Seattle is worth a look here as a relatively small road dog here against the Twins. Minnesota has thrown in the towel on their season and come in having lost 6 straight, where they have scored 2 or fewer runs in all 6 losses. Seattle knows this is a series where they can make up some ground in the Wild Card race. On top of the edge in motivation, the Mariners have a huge advantage here on the mound. They send out James Paxton, who is coming off back-to-back really good starts, where he's allowed just 4 runs on 9 hits in 13 innings of work. He'll be going up against Kyle Gibson, who would like to forget this season, especially his performances at Target Field. Gibson is 1-7 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 12 home starts. Seattle is 21-6 in their last 27 as a road favorite of -125 or more.
RAY MONOHAN
USC +3
The Trojans head into Utah here on Friday night and it's time for this USC team to step up.
The program is off to their worst start since 2001 and a 2nd loss in Pac 12 play could almost eliminate the Trojans from conference title contention.
They matchup well here with the Utes, who really don't have much of a threatening offense. Utah has averaged just 26 points per game this season as they've leaned heavily on their defense to find success.
For the Trojans, they will feature the best offense the Utes have seen this season, which will feature a potent passing game that the Utah secondary hasn't had to face.
Some trends to note. Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200
yards rushing in their previous game. Trojans are 29-11 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up loss.
The Trojans are 5-0 in their last 5 Friday games. Look for them to play some inspired football here, as they grab a win on the road.
Rocketman
Boston @ Tampa Bay
Play: Boston -10
The Boston Red Sox travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays on Friday night. Boston is 89-64 SU overall this year while Tampa Bay comes in with a 65-87 SU overall record on the season. Drew Pomeranz is 10-12 with a 3.40 ERA overall this year and 6-7 with a 2.80 ERA on the road this season. Chris Archer is 8-18 with a 4.06 ERA overall this year and has a 3-9 record at home this season. Pomeranz has a 2.55 ERA in his 3 career starts vs Tampa Bay. Archer is 1-10 with a 5.56 ERA in his 15 starts vs Boston in his career. Boston is scoring 5.6 runs per game against right handed starters this year and 5.7 runs per game at night this season. Boston is allowing 3.9 runs per game on the road this year and 3 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they are 7-0. Tampa Bay is scoring only 3.9 runs per game at home this year and 3.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!
JIMMY BOYD
SMU +21
I like the Mustangs catching three touchdowns at home. It’s a shame that SMU lost starting quarterback Matt Davis in the opener. However, the Mustangs covered on the road at Baylor without him and can do the same here.
This is not an easy spot at all for TCU. They are coming off their conference opener and playing an inferior team on short rest. What really makes it tough is the game on deck the following week at Oklahoma.
Not only is this a bit of a trap/sandwich game for the Horned Frogs, but their defense remains a major concern. After giving up 41 in each of their first two games, they let Iowa State score 20 on them last week. The same ISU team that only scored 3 points on 291 yards of total offense the previous week against Iowa.
On the season, they are giving up 34.0 ppg and 406.3 yards/game. SMU isn’t as potent offensively without Morris, but are capable of doing some damage. Mustangs head coach Chad Morris has really got them going on this side of the ball. They play at a blazing pace and that’s tough for any defense to handle. He took over a team last year that only averaged 11.1 ppg in 2014 and got them up to 27.6 ppg. Not a big surprise given his background as the former OC for Clemson.
SMU has turned to red-shirt freshman Ben Hicks to replace Davis at quarterback. Hicks has had his ups and downs. He’s thrown for 583 yards and 2 scores, but also has 5 interceptions. I know the Mustangs only put up 13 with him as the starter against Baylor, but the Bears are better defensively than they get credit for.
It’s also important to keep in mind that TCU came into this season way overvalued. A big reason why they come into this game having not covered a spread. Even after failing to cash in 3 straight games, the betting public is going to be on them in this one. They just won’t be able to stomach backing SMU with their starting quarterback out.
It’s also worth noting that TCU lost a big piece of their offense in the win over the Cyclones. Wide out and return specialist KaVontae Turpin suffered a PCL injury. He’s out at least 4-6 weeks and maybe the season. Turpin has a team-high 16 receptions and 196 yards.
I think the value is with the Mustangs and so does the big money. We have already seen this line get bet down quite a bit from the opening number. TCU is just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games under Patterson off a game where they had no turnovers and 1-4 in their last 5 follwoing a SU win by more than 20 points.
DAVE PRICE
Houston Astros -135
Sitting 1.5 games back in the wild card race, the Houston Astros are in need of wins here down the stretch. They get to host the Los Angeles Angels, who are just 67-86 on the season. After losing Game 1, look for the Astros to come back with a win in Game 2 tonight. Doug Fister is 12-12 with a 4.45 ERA in 30 starts this year. He'll be opposed by Alex Meyer, who is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA in 4 starts, including 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in 2 road starts. Fister is 3-3 with a 2.72 ERA in 11 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. Meyer is 0-1 with a 10.11 ERA in his lone lifetime start against Houston. Fister has only given up 3 earned runs in 13 innings in 2 starts against the Angels this season. The Astros are a perfect 7-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line after getting shut out this season.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Mariners -132
This is a fairly manageable line on the M's considering they are still very much alive in the wild card race and factoring in that the Twins have lost 6 straight games. Minnesota has the worst record in all of baseball with a 55-98 mark on the season. The Mariners come into this match-up fresh after a day off yesterday. Seattle is on a 10-4 run in their last 14 games while the Twins are in a full free-fall having lost 21 of their last 27 games! With Minny on a 6-21 run and starting pitcher Kyle Gibson 1-7 with a 5.32 ERA in his home starts this season, this is a "value" spot to lay a moderate price (currently in the -130 range) to have the hungry and superior team in this one. Seattle will have James Paxton on the mound tonight and he has given up just 4 earned runs on 9 hits in his last 13 innings on the mound. Also, the southpaw has struck out 18 in his last 17 and 1/3 innings. Paxton struck out 7 in less than 5 innings in the only start he has made against the Twins in his career. Look for plenty of K's to get piled up in this outing too as the Minnesota slump continues. Amazingly, the Twins have been held to 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Mariners have won 6 straight road games and averaged 6.3 runs per game during this hot streak.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +159 over TORONTO
Bryan Mitchell has only pitched 12 innings at this level this season but he has significant big league time under his belt, pitching 40.2 innings between 2014 and 2015. He was all set to open the year in the Yankees bullpen, but he fractured his toe in March and required surgery. He returned in August and only pitched 21 innings before being called up. Mitchell can touch the upper-90s with his fastball. However, he has a deep pitch mix also. He’s big and strong, though fringy command and a below average change-up could hold him back until he refines both. At his best, he uses a power sinker to keep the ball low in the zone and he can get strikeouts with his hard, low-80s curveball. Mitchell also has a cutter to give hitters a different look. He owns a 4.27 ERA, a 3.44 xERA and 8.2 K’s/9 in his minor league career. Is he a risk? Of course he is but he’s taking back an inflated price and Francisco Liriano is just as big a risk.
Liriano was recently used in the pen in back-to-back appearances in which he was tagged for three runs combined after facing 10 hitters combined. In his last start, Liriano allowed four runs in six innings. In the eight games that he’s appeared in since arriving here, Toronto has lost five of them. Liriano has the potential to throw a great game but he’s also a big risk because he does not pitch deep into games anymore. His pitch count is always high because he throws so many balls. Liriano has walked 82 batters in 150.2 innings for the highest walk rate in the majors among starters. He’s also been taken yard three times in his past two starts including twice in his last start at the Rogers Center. Toronto is still fighting it offensively and they have not been sharp at home recently either. When it comes right down to it, this is very close to a 50/50 proposition so taking back a price would be the prudent way to go.
Atlanta +110 over MIAMI
If Josh Collmenter could go into Miami and silence the Marlins, Matt Wisler can do the same. After fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt for a long time, it’s all over the Fish and they’re playing like it. This is a very beatable host.
We have to hand it to the Braves, who are on fire and look the part too. The trade to acquire Ender Inciarte from the D-backs for Shelby Miller may turn out to be one of the biggest steals on record. Inciarte leads the majors since the All-Star break in several offensive categories including batting average and on base %. He’s reached safely in 42 straight games and sets the table by leading off. Several other are hot too, like Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis. The Braves offense has scored more runs than any team in the NL over the past five weeks and they have also won six in a row but they’re priced like none of that has happened. They’ll now face Andrew Cashner.
Andrew Cashner is about as average or below as anyone. He comes in with a 5.27 ERA, a 4.68 xERA, a 1.52 WHIP and a weak swing and miss rate of 8%. Over his last five starts, Cashner’s ERA is 6.28. He’s also walked 15 batters over his past 23 innings. Cashner’s control is waning. His numbers versus LHB continues to be ugly. A mild rebound perhaps, but he's nothing more than a mid-range starter and his profile is one you don’t want to spot a price with against the hottest team in the majors.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +194 over OTTAWA
While it looks bad, it hasn't been a complete wash for Toronto. In two starts, quarterback Dan LeFevour has thrown for over 600 yards and five touchdowns. We like what we've seen from LeFevour. He's mobile and can throw on the run, thus giving his guys a better chance to get open. While both Toronto and Ottawa are struggling, there seems to be light at the end of the Argo's tunnel. Toronto has a strong coaching staff and they appear to be in a good position to go on a run. In the CFL, you're never really out of it and despite everything, the Argos are just a game back of Hamilton for top spot in the East Division.
As bad as it may seem in Toronto it might be worse in Ottawa. Since Trevor Harris went down win an injury, the Redblacks have not been the same. They lost four straight and a rash of injuries have forced them to plug new signings in all over the field. Former Oklahoma running back Mossis Madu will walk off the street and into the starting lineup this week. Harris will make his return tonight but it could be too little too late. The Redblacks toothless defense that couldn't sniff Bo Levi Mitchell in a 48-23 loss in Calgary could be in for a long night with the mobile LeFevour. At the end of the day, the Redblacks cannot be spotting points or anything else to anybody at this point, which instantly prompts us to step in. Take the points if you like, we're playing the Double Blue straight up.
Bob Balfe
Tigers -135
The Royals have checked out for the season losing 7 of their last 10 games. It is tough for a playoff team to get up night after night knowing they won’t be going to the playoffs. If you look at a team like Atlanta they are building towards something and want to take teams home with them. This is not the energy you will get from this Royals team. Detroit needs to win this game to stay on top of the playoff wild card race. This is obviously a must win playoff game for them and they are at home. You have to win these games if you want to play in October.