Free Picks for Friday, September 29th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
NEBRASKA AT ILLINOIS
PLAY: ILLINOIS +6.5
Nebraska has been a big moneymaker thus far for anyone willing to fade the Cornhuskers. The team stands 2-2 straight up, but only 1-3 ATS. The one spread win was thanks to a strong second half comeback that got the Huskers inside the number in the loss to Oregon.
The big issue for Nebraska has been QB Tanner Lee, who continues to be a turnover machine. Nine picks in four games is alarmingly bad. It’s kind of weird, as Lee has the ability to make all the throws, but he just can’t seem to avoid critical mistakes. Until this situation gets rectified, Nebraska will continue to have problems winning games, let alone covering spreads as chalk.
Illinois isn’t very good, so it’s not like they’re a team likely to inspire much confidence. The Illini are 2-1. But they were very fortunate to slip past Ball State, the win over Western Kentucky was not particularly impressive and they were blown out at South Florida after hanging in early against the Bulls.
Aside from running back Mike Epstein, who has been very solid in the early going, there’s very little in the way of star power on this team. Head coach Lovie Smith is going to have to find a way to attract some better talent to this school, or the Illinois run of mediocrity will be maintained moving forward.
But for all their flaws, the Illini might be in better shape than Nebraska at thus point. The general consensus is that Mile Riley is a lame duck coach barring a sudden turnaround in the Cornhusker fortunes. The rumor mill is already churning with current UCF head coach and ex-Nebraska QB Scott Frost being the hot name. Former LSU mentor Les Miles has also been mentioned in connection with this job should it open.
This is basically just a continuation of a fade Nebraska routine. If they break through and get a good win, maybe it’ll be time to get away from playing against them. But until that time, grabbing points against the Huskers still makes sense. I’d look to side with Illinois on Friday night.
Marc Lawrence
Utah State +3½
Edges - Aggies: 6-3 ATS the last nine games in this series, including 3-0 when BYU is playing with rest… Cougars: 0-3 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus FBS foes this season… With college football home dogs that scored 55 or more points in a SU road favorite win and cover in their last game 14-8 SU and 15-6-1 ATS, we recommend a 1* play on Utah State.
Indian Cowboy
Illinois / Nebraska Under 47.5
Who is going to score here? A Nebraska team that scored 17 points against NIU or 27 points against Rutgers? Or an Illinois team headed by Lovie Smith that scored 20 points against Western Kentucky and is rated the 120th offense in the nation? For starters, Nebraska's strongest suit is their defense, and they have become as inconsistent as ever on offense. And with the AD being recently fired, that is sending a clear message that this team needs to shape up and they will do what they do well or will do what they do well better - which is defense. Combine that with Lovie Smith being a defensive-minded coach who just gave up 40+ points on the road to South Florida on national television, and what you will see here is likely a low-scoring, ball-control affair which is why the spread is so low at just 6 points. Look for points to be a premium here as this game likely goes under the posted total and also a decent public fade here as well.
Ken Thomson
USC vs. Washington St
Play: USC -3½
USC has looked shaky in 3 of 4 games so far....the opener vs. Western Michigan, the Texas game and last week in Berkeley. Trojans played solid game vs. Stanford in week 2 and Wazzu has really not looked great against anyone of quality. Nevada is horrendous, Oregon State may win 2 games this season, FCS opponent Montana State and a double OT win that Boise State gift wrapped after blowing a 21 point lead in 4th quarter. This is their 5th straight home game and when they take to the road, this team will get lit up.
Their running game hasn't amounted to much yet and Falk was actually pulled and benched in Boise State game. Martin is a speedster at wide out but Craycraft & Marks were great route runners and possession receivers and they are gone. The biggest loss for Wazzu is their MLB- Peyton Pelleur. This guy was their QB on defense. Last season he had 93 tackles- 21 more than anyone else on the team. They still have a great leader on the D-Line in Hercules Mata'afa and he could help neutralize Darnold if he gets some help. SC played last week without three starters including senior RB Ronald Jones who together with freshman Stephen Carr are a dynamic 1-2 punch. I know freaky things happen in Pullman but the Trojans are already there getting acclimated to the conditions.
If the Cougs get out of the gate quickly and Falk gets in a rhythm then Washington State can definitely win this Friday Night late game. If they struggle early on offense with a few 3 and outs, SC could open things up. Because I'm a USC backer for 4 decades, I didn't want to sell this one due to people thinking I'm biased so it's a FREE opinion. I bet against SC in the opener vs. Western Michigan plus 28 and got that one easily so I'm not opposed to going against my heart in a good spot. I actually circled Wazzu at the beginning of the season in this one but Falk's crummy performance vs Boise State and the loss of Pelleur are reasons I reversed my field in this one!
DAVE COKIN
TEXAS VS. IOWA STATE
PLAY: IOWA STATE +4.5
If you’re into technical analysis, Iowa State would stand out as a pretty strong side tonight as the Cyclones play host to Texas. I’m not much of a trend player, so the attractive angle numbers that apply to this evening’s game weren’t enough to get me to the wagering window. Close, but no cigar as far as that goes.
I certainly lean to the home dog here. Iowa State is looking like a competitive entry this season in the Big 12. That might not translate into outright wins, but I do feel this edition of the Cyclones is not going to be a pushover for most of their conference brethren.
Texas is clearly better now than they were at the start of the season. If they were to replay Maryland, I’m quite sure we’d see a dramatically different result than was the case when the schools met back in Week One.
That’s really the big stumbling block for me tonight. I know the Longhorns are improving, but I’m not convinced they’re ready to be spotting points on the road to a fired up home dog that might be better than most fans think. I’m particularly impressed with QB Jacob Park’s efficiency and David Montgomery is doing some very solid work at running back.
My projection for this game has Texas -4, so it’s just a very slight edge with the line where it is now sitting. +6.5 with Iowa State was previously available. Not anymore, as the consensus line as I’nm writing this is Longhorns -4.5. Factor in the technical data that points to Iowa State, and the Cyclones are the side I see as more likely to cover in what has a chance to be a very entertaining football game.
Ray Monohan
Miami Florida vs. Duke
Play: Miami Florida -6
Miami FL -6 The Hurricanes head into Duke Friday night and have value laying under a touchdown here. The Hurricanes ended up blowing away the Toledo Rockets last week, after trailing by 6 at the break. It showed a lot in terms of what this Miami team is really like, as they came out with what looked like a purpose in that 2nd half. Miami is easily the quickest and most difficult team this Blue Devils team will have seen thus far into the season. They also haven't had much luck against the Hurricanes in the history of the program. Miami leads the head to head series 12-2 and has dominated in almost every fashion. Some trends to note. Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. This number is valuable here.
Ben Burns
Nebraska vs. Illinois
Pick: Illinois +6.5
A few weeks ago, I successfully played on Illinois when it upset Western Kentucky. Readers of this column may recall that we successfully played against the Illini in their following game. Playing their first road game and doing so on a short week, I predicted that they'd get blown out at USF. They did.
The shoe is on the other foot this time though. Illinois hasn't played since that loss at USF, a full two weeks. Nebraska, on the other hand, will be playing on a short week. Also, the Huskers face Wisconsin next week. Note that Nebraska lost its only road game and also that the Huskers, who lost outright vs. Northern Illinois, have yet to win a game by more than 10 points.
The last meeting here saw Illinois score an upset, a 14-13 win in 2015. The Illini also covered at Nebraska last season. With the schedule in favor of the home dog, consider grabbing the points with Illinois.
Scott Rickenbach
Montreal vs. Calgary
Play: Montreal +17
The Stampeders have been red hot and the Alouettes have been ice cold. However, this line is over-inflated given the situation. While it is true that Calgary has revenge here (their lone loss this season was at Montreal), it is also true that the Stampeders are on a short week plus have a bye on deck. After battling hard in a defensive battle versus a divisional foe, Saskatchewan, for the win Sunday, Calgary has to be happily looking ahead to their upcoming bye. As a result, I expect Calgary to be in a bit of a "coast mode" here and just put it on cruise control. Montreal's defense has played well against the Stampeders and has held them to just 16.8 points per game in the last 5 meetings. The Alouettes also have a perfect 4-0 ATS mark as an underdog of 10 points or more. Calgary is on an ugly 2-8 ATS run when playing with revenge. Look for the Als to keep this one much closer than many are expecting.
Matt Fargo
Miami-FL vs. Duke
Play: Miami-FL -6
Duke is off to a 4-0 start, matching its 2014 season when it started 4-0 and that streak ended with a loss against the Hurricanes and we can expect a similar result here. The Blue Devils have shown good balance on offense and the defense has overachieved thus far as they are ranked No. 16 in total defense and No. 17 in scoring defense. Offensively, they have been buoyed by a strong rushing attack that has three players with over 200 yards on the ground but the opposition has played a factor in that. The Miami defensive front will be the best the Blue Devils have faced as the Hurricanes came into the season with the No. 2 ranked defensive line and No. 2 ranked linebacker unit in the ACC. Duke is one of four teams in the nation that is off to a perfect 4-0 ATS start and while some people ride those streaks, it is best to go contrarian. We like what we saw with Miami last week. After having not played in 21 days because of the effects of the hurricane, it got off to a slow start against Toledo and trailed 16-10 at halftime. The Hurricanes found their groove however as they outscored the Rockets 42-14 in the second half. That is something they can carry over into this week and while laying chalk on the road is a rare thing for us, we make the exception here with a team that talent-wise is much better. Good news on the injury front for Miami is that 2016 leading rusher Mark Walton, who was injured last game and 2016 leading receiver Ahmmon Richards, who has missed both games, have both been upgraded to probable. Going back, the Hurricanes are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Ross Benjamin
Miami-FL vs. Duke
Play: Miami-FL -6
Duke has started the season 4-0. However, their 3 wins over FBS opponents came against teams (North Carolina, Baylor, Northwestern) that currently have a combined 3-8 record. Friday night will be far and away their toughest opponent they’ve faced this season. They’ve also benefitted from a turnover margin of +5 thus far, and Miami has turned it over just once during its first 2 games.
Miami shook off the rust from a 3-week layoff in last Saturday’s 52-30 home win over a very good Toledo team, and covered as a 13.5-point favorite while doing so. The Canes trailed 13-10 at the half in that contests before outscoring Toledo by a decisive 42-17 margin during 2nd half action. This will be Miami’s first road game of the year, and they were a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS last season as an away favorite under new head coach Mark Richt. Since 2005, Miami is 6-0 in games played at Duke and won by 10 points or more on each occasion.
John Martin
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Rays -140
We have two starting pitchers headed in opposite directions here. Wade Miley is 0-3 with a 13.94 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his last three starts, yielding 16 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. Jake Odorizzi is 2-1 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts for the Rays. Miley gave up 5 earned runs in 6 innings of a 4-5 loss at Tampa Bay on July 25th in his last start against them. Odorizzi pitched 6 innings without allowing an earned run in his last start against Baltimore on September 23rd.
Dave Price
USC vs. Washington St
Play: USC -5
The Key: There is one huge difference between these teams during their 4-0 starts. USC has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, beating Western Michigan, Stanford, Texas and California. Washington State has played one of the softest schedules in the land, beating Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada, all at home. The better team is USC, and it's really not even close here. That will show on the field Friday night.
Big Al
Atlanta vs. Miami
Pick: Miami -146
RHP Dan Straily would almost certainly love to know where he's going to call home during the 2018 MLB season. The Marlins are Straily's fifth team in the last four seasons and if he can win his final start tonight, he would have put together back-to-back winning seasons. Perhaps more importantly in terms of securing a contract for next season, Straily seems to have demonstrated that he can stay healthy. Tonight will be his 33rd start of 2017 and when you add that to the 31 he had last season, it makes for a pretty durable player the last two years. Straily's ERA is slightly higher this season, but many of his other stats have trended in the right direction, including his strikeout and walk rates. Straily can definitely end the season on a high note as he'll be facing a team that he's gone 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four starts covering 22 innings against this season. Those are the best numbers for any opponent that Straily has faced on multiple occasions in 2017. The Braves are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. teams with a losing record.
Jim Feist
Orioles at Rays
Pick: Over 9
This is a good hitter's park and a pair of weak starters are on the mound. Baltimore is 8-2 over the total against a right-handed starter. Wade Miley (8-14, 5.5 2 ERA) goes for the Orioles, off a pair of defeats, 9-0 and 13-5. He allowed 11 hits and 12 runs in 4+ innings! Tampa Bay is 15-5 over the total at home against losing teams. Jake Odorizzi (4.26 ERA) has a 4.48 ERA at home and the Over is 7-3 in Odorizzi's last 10 home starts. And the Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Tampa Bay.