Larry Ness
Oakland vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -117
The Oakland A's may be just 74-85 on the season but they enter the final weekend of the regular season with 16 wins over their last 21 games. In stark contrast, after losing 4-1 at home to the A's last night, Texas is looking to put an end to a season-high seven-game skid in which it has been outscored 49-9 in the last five contests. Making the challenge even tougher is the fact that the A's have won SEVEN straight against the Rangers!
Raul Alcantara (1-1, 6.86 ERA) will take the mound for Oakland, opposed by Martin Perez (12-12, 4.83 ERA) of Texas. Alcantara turned in his second straight strong start on Saturday, scattering two hits over five scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory versus Texas. "The command of the fastball is better," manager Bob Melvin said of Alcantara. "It looks to me like his split and slider are better, and he's pitching with a lot more confidence. It's good to see." Alcantara is making his third straight spot start, this time as a fill-in for fellow right-hander Jharel Cotton, who has been shut down after dealing with right elbow soreness.
Perez had ripped off seven straight wins from 8/9 through 9/8 but has gone 0-2 with a 4.96 ERA in his last three starts (team is 1-2), including a five-run effort in an 8-1 loss to Oakland this past Sunday. Perez owns a 1-2 mark with a 5.93 ERA in three starts this season versus the Athletics, giving him a 6-7 career record with a 5.29 ERA over starts (Rangers are 8-7). Perez will make his final start of the season Friday against and it's be announced that he will have the option for his contract next season picked up, as Texas will pay him $6 million in 2018 (gotta love it!).
Alcantara is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA this month (four appearances / two starts). He has made four career starts against Texas and is 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA in those games, including 1-1 with a 10.29 ERA against Rangers in two starts in 2017. I'm going with the veteran Perez, as Texas snaps its slide.
Brandon Lee
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Brewers -130
The Cardinals were just eliminated from postseason play by the Cubs last night in gut-wrenching fashion, as St Louis was robbed of a home run that would have tied the game in the bottom of the 11th. Even knowing they can play spoiler to Milwaukee, who is 2-games back of the Rockies for the final Wild Card spot, I don't see the Cardinals coming to the park the least bit interested in this game. This is a team that really thought they had what it takes to get back to the postseason and win this division. While St Louis is hanging their heads, the Brewers are going to be 100% locked in on this game, as they have to sweep here to have any chance of catching Colorado. They got the right starter on the mound to get off on a good note, as they send out Chase Anderson, who is 11-4 with a 2.81 ERA in 24 starts and owns a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 outings.
Jimmy Boyd
USC vs. Washington St
Play: Under 65½
A lot of people are expecting a shootout tonight between the Cougars and Trojans with all the offensive fire-power that will be on display, including two of the top quarterbacks in the country in USC's Sam Darnold and Washington State's Luke Falk. I believe that has this total inflated quite a bit and the value is clearly on the UNDER.
The Trojans have had some lapses and let some teams hang around that they shouldn't, but the defense definitely turned it up a notch after that poor showing in the opener against Western Michigan. They have been much better against the pass than the run and that's ideal here against a Washington State offense that basically only throws the ball. USC can get after the quarterback with their pass rush and Falk likes to hold on to the ball, which should lead to some big sacks and empty possessions for the Cougars.
A lot of people think Washington State is all offense, but they have been playing much better on the defensive side of the ball the last couple of seasons and are currently 12th in the country in total defense coming into this game. They are 42nd against the run (120.0 ypg) and 12th against the pass (142.3 ypg). I think they can give USC's offense some problems, especially given the circumstances of this being a home night game that is getting a ton of attention. Martin Stadium is going to be electric.
UNDER is now 22-8-1 in the Trojans last 31 conference games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-0 in USC's last 6 as a road favorite and 6-0 in the Cougars last 6 home games after rushing for 125 or less yards in 2 straight games.
Dave Price
USC vs. Washington St
Play: USC -5
There is one huge difference between these teams during their 4-0 starts. USC has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, beating Western Michigan, Stanford, Texas and California. Washington State has played one of the softest schedules in the land, beating Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada, all at home. The better team is USC, and it's really not even close here. That will show on the field Friday night.
Dave Essler
Duke / Miami Under 56
I don't think this number gets better, and I hate hooks. I thought I'd like Duke, and although I can't take Miami, some of the market moves to this point concern me a bit - which of course led me to this one. Duke has THE best defensive third-down conversion rate in the nation, period. And although they've been able to put up a few points, this will be by far the best defense they've faced. Daniel Jones (Duke QB) is still only a Sophomore, throws too many picks for my liking, and took 29 sacks last season. He's already taken 9 this season. They've been able to run the ball and set up the pass, but that's not going to be as easy against Miami's front as it has been against the rest of their competition. Miami had that two week layoff after the Bethune-Cookman tuneup, an honestly even thought they woke up in the 2H against Toledo, this is by far THEIR toughest opponent, and of course on the road. To top it off they've got FSU next week which is well beyond an ACC rivalry - it's perhaps their biggest recruiting rivalry. Duke will certainly be motivated to erase the memory of a 41-20 loss in Miami last season (the big reason for the Duke lean). I like Malik Rosier's POTENTIAL - but he's not seen a ton of "game action" and this IS on the road in what will be a hostile environment. It's the old adage of "until you do" I can't bet that you will. So, I don't see the big plays here that one might instinctively feel - and see a score for both teams in the low-20's.
SPORTS WAGERS
ILLINOIS +197 over Nebraska
We haven’t seen Illinois take the field in two weeks but the last glimpse many had of the Illini was the USF Bulls torching them in Tampa for 47 points in a nationally televised Friday night game. That loss was ugly as can be while Nebraska won last week. These results conjure up preconceived notions. Overall, the Huskers were projected to have more of a ceiling in 2017 compared to Illinois, who took steps backward in 2016. Nebraska won nine games in 2016 while Illinois lost two more games in 2016 than it did in 2015. The Cornhuskers are expected to go bowling while Illinois is forecasted to stay home yet again. We now get to take advantage of some of things that influence the market. You see, Nebraska has benefitted from eating cupcakes more than actually being a good football team.
The Huskers began their season with a 43-36 win against Arkansas State in Lincoln. The Red Wolves were able to generate 415 passing yards and outperform Nebraska in total offense. However, Arkansas State would commit two costly mistakes and that would be the ultimate decider of the affair. Nebraska was very lucky to escape victorious. The Huskers would follow that win up with two consecutive losses against Oregon and Northern Illinois. Against Oregon, Nebraska would be torched for 566 yards of offense in a game that was far less competitive than the score-line depicts be that they trailed by as much as 28 before the Quack Attack let off the gas. On paper, a 42-35 loss to Oregon in Eugene does not look bad at all. We’re here to tell you that Nebraska was horrible.
Against Northern Illinois, the ‘Huskers defense would finally show up but the offense would turn the ball over three times and the Huskies would seize the opportunity to pull the upset. Nebraska seemed to finally get its act together against Rutgers at home last week, but again the score was also not indicative of how the game was played. Nebraska did not nose away until the final stages of the fourth quarter on a field goal in the last five minutes that gave Nebraska the 10-point margin it would win by. For most of the game, the Scarlet Knights hung with the Cornhuskers every step of the way and even led at one point. It is worth noting that Rutgers went winless against the Big Ten in 2016 and they have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent in 2017.
By contrast, Illinois comes in “free-rolling”. With such low expectations, the Illini will treat every contest with a “nothing to lose” mentality. Teams of this pedigree can be exceptionally dangerous and the Illini already took advantage of this when they hosted a Western Kentucky team that was spotting them a touchdown in Champaign three weeks ago. Illinois would win the game 20-7, as Western Kentucky was caught scratching the target on its back from being a two-time defending conference champion. Illinois also has a victory over Ball State to open its season.
In summarizing, the Cornhuskers are 2-2 with narrow victories at home over both over Arkansas State (43-36) and Rutgers (27-17). They could just as easily be 0-4. Nebraska’s success, if you want to call it that, has been fueled by a weak schedule, some timely breaks and unsustainable luck field position. Against weak competition, Nebraska was neither dominant nor reliable. Hop off this Nebraska train immediately, as this team is about to sink quickly and it likely starts with a loss to the Illini. Thus, we’re playing Illinois to win outright and Illinois to cover the number.
WASHINGTON ST +6 over USC
There is no question that the Trojans have played the tougher schedule this season. USC has already faced Western Michigan, Stanford, Texas and a much improved Cal squad while Washington State has faced Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada. Oregon State and Nevada are two of the worst defensive clubs in Division I and Wazzu torched them both. While we have our reservations about getting behind a team that plays a weak schedule, we have to put that aside here for several reasons. You see, the Trojans come in with their #5 high ranking and what that means is that one must pay an inflated priced to back them in a nationally televised game. Not only are the Trojans ranked highly but their QB, Sam Darnold, is getting a massive amount of press, which also inflates the price on the Trojans. Sam Darnold really is as good as they say he is. He’ll make throws that will make you go WOW. However, the line protecting him is weak, which results in Darnold having to get rid of the ball sooner than he would like to. That in turn has led to USC turnovers every week.
Sam Darnold can and has done it on his own. However, playing on the road against a very explosive offense changes the dynamics. USC has been home for three games with its only road game occurring at Cal last week. The Trojans would go onto a 30-20 victory but Cal, as a 17-point dog, had that game tied at the half and tied going into the fourth quarter. None of USC’s victories this year have been easy. It took the Trojans double OT to sneak by Texas last week and they couldn’t put Stanford or Western Michigan away until the fourth quarter but the market will largely ignore the danger signs associated with spotting significant road points with this flawed favorite.
What you may read about is how nearly every game between these two – regardless of the time, the date, the place or the tint of the jerseys worn that day – has gone awry for the Cougars. USC has won 87 percent (59 of 68) of the ones that didn’t end in a tie and minus blips in 2013, 2002 and 2000, the Trojans have won every game played between these two this millennium. Most haven’t been particularly close, either. The last five USC victories: 44-17 in 2014, 50-16 in 2010, 27-6 in 2009, 69-0 in 2008 and 47-14 in 2007. We couldn’t care less, as useless trends also influence the market. A result in 2009 has zero impact on this one.
Fact is, this USC team hasn’t yet been tested in front of a tough road crowd (sorry, Golden Bears) and the Trojans also haven’t left the state of California for a game since Week 10 last season. It’s a short week for both, but in theory that’s always tougher on the team that’s traveling – and no road trip in the Pac-12 is more awkward than the one to Pullman. The Trojans have a knack for slow starts while the Cougars have a knack for starting fast. USC’s QB has thrown seven picks, Wazzu’s has thrown one.
Even though State hasn’t been tested, maybe they’re really good. What we know for sure is that turnovers are the biggest deciding factor in which team covers the number and we already discussed why the Trojans are turning it over. With the way Darnold is running for his life every week, it would be unreasonable not to expect one or more turnovers again this week from the Men of Troy. Washington State has to be sick of being the Trojans whipping boy for years but now Mike Leach brings his best chance to win this game since he’s been here. Wazzu is a well-coached but mostly overlooked team with a chance to make some noise at the end of September. The Cougars are moving off a well-timed easy win over Nevada into the most unforgiving portion of the schedule. On the balance this bunch is a legitimate threat to dislodge USC from its customary superior position over them, we’re taking the inflated points for sure while the hype train is still rolling on USC. Sam Darnold is great but USC is not.
Pass MLB
Pat Hawkins
Washington St +4
Washington St is 9-1 ATS under head coach Leach when taking in undefeated foes, while Leach is 15-5 ATS as an underdog when facing teams without a blemish. Expect this game to be a shootout as both teams have high powered offense. Take the hungry home dog that's looking to make a statement.
TJ PEMBERTON
Nebraska vs. Illinois
Play: Nebraska -6
The Nebraska Cornhuskers roll into Illinois to take on the Fighting Illini. Nebraska is 2-2 on the season but have covered the spread in just one game this season. The Cornhuskers beat Rutgers on the road last week and have some momentum even on this short week. Nebraska beat the Fight Illini 31-16 last season. QB Tanner Lee continues to throw interceptions. Lee passed for 109 yards in last weeks win with two touchdowns but had two interceptions. RB Devine Ozigbo had a nice game which opened things up for this offense. Ozigbo had 101 yards on 24 carries. Nebraska is listed a touchdown road favorite in this one. Illinois showed better play on their home field this season but welcome in a tough Nebraska team. Expect both teams to have turnovers but the Cornhuskers defense will be more solid and have better play makers on offense
Joey Juice
Friday's comp play is Miami-Florida as the road favorite over Duke.
Miami plays Duke in ACC Conference football action tonight at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. After a prolonged rest, UM shook off Hurricane Irma to convincingly beat Toledo 52-30.
These two teams met last year and the Hurricanes beat them easily 40-21.
Bottom line is the Hurricanes have too much offense for their opponent in this game. The Canes offense is ranked sixth in the country averaging over 570 yards per game. They are passing for about three hundred yards a game and running for about three hundred yards of game this balance is off it impossible for opposing teams to deal with, just ask Bethune-Cookman.
People look at that Duke defense who played so well against North Carolina and they think this Duke team has a chance, but they're dead wrong. Miami's offense is so superior to North Carolina's offense that Duke won't know what hit them. On the other hand people think that Miami's defense is weak but they're not nearly as weak as people think and they will continue to get better every game.
This one is all hurricanes as they win by double-digits.
4* MIAMI-FLORIDA
Eric Schroeder
"There is little doubt in my mind Duke will win this game outright."
That was the text message I received earlier this week, from someone extremely close to the Miami program.
Now I don't always go off what people tell me, especially if they're close with a program. Of course those folks are usually pumping their own team, and this time they're advocating the Canes will lose. But I still do my own research, as well.
What I see is a 4-0 Duke team that is - yikes! - two wins from becoming bowl eligible.
The Blue Devils own double-digit wins over Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina. And with momentum in their coffers, they'll be pumped for three home games in the next four.
The run continues with a win over Miami, a team that is 2-0 with wins over, gulp, Bethune-Cookman and Toledo. Now a conference team, and a real showdow, against Duke before heading to play Florida State.
Are the Canes going to be focused?
Take Duke tonight, as it rolls toward an outright win.
2* DUKE
Chris Jordan
Can it be? Another loss to Utah State?
I think yes, and so do the wiseguys. Don't let the squares fool you, the line move earlier this week was from the sharps. And so, my free play is with the Utah State Aggies over the BYU Cougars.
A Cougars loss to suddenly dangerous Aggies could be disastrous, and I think Utah State can win this game outright, as the annual game for the Old Wagon Wheel is at rowdy Maverik Stadium. And the natives are restless.
BYU has opened the season 1-3, while Utah State is 2-2, and will be treating this game like it does every year - like its own BCS Championship.
The Aggies demolished Mountain West-foe San Jose State last Saturday, and will be motivated to follow up with a win over struggling BYU tonight.
Take the home team.
5* UTAH STATE
Tommy Brunson
Friday night comp play is BYU over Utah State.
It has not been a pretty season for the BYU Cougars, as BYU heads to nearby Utah State with 3 losses in a row saddled to their team bus.
The Cougars were shutout at home by LSU 27-0 back at the start of September, they lost a 19-13 defensive slugfest to Utah on the 9th, and they were also routed by Wisconsin, 40-6 in their last game. Perhaps the bye-week the Cougars are coming off of will help here as they step down the ladder in competition just a little to play an Aggies team that walloped San Jose State, 61-10 last week on the road.
BYU has been able to dominate in this series, as they have won the last pair of series meetings, and 8 of the past 10 series meetings overall. The Cougars have also turned the tide at the ticket window in this rivalry, covering the last pair and 3 of the past 4.
Yes, Tanner Mangum is out for tonight's game, but just feel the added rest, and a chance to step down in talent level will do wonders for BYU's psyche tonight versus Utah State.
Play BYU in this near pick contest.
1* BYU
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on USC, which is putting a better football product on the field than the other two teams in Los Angeles - and I mean the Chargers and Rams. Even UCLA is better football to watch.
Tonight the Trojans are up in Pullman, and I like their chances of getting this one done.
Sam Darnold is the real deal, and he should be offended the guy up in Laramie was considered the best quarterback in college football, back in July, when teams were meeting in conference centers for Media Days.
Darnold is a gamer, he plays all four quarters and he will light up Wazzu's secondary. He's thrown nine touchdowns, against seven interceptions. But let's not be fooled by the seven picks. He was trying to make something happen and threw off the back foot with a couple of those. You have to read between the lines and actually watch football games to comprehend what is going on.
Darnold is smarter than his TD-to-interception ratio, and tonight he will prove that.
As for Washington State's offense, ranked 15th in the nation, will be stymied by USC's staunch defense.
3* USC
Bruce Marshall
Dodgers at Rockies
Pick: Rockies
The Dodgers got well at the expense of the Padres this week, but expect plenty of substituting and resting of regulars for this weekend, regular-season closing set at Denver. Meanwhile, the Rocks still have a magic number of 2 to sew up the last NL wild card, and Bud Black will be all out for a win tonight, and not fool around if starter Chad Bettis struggles. The Dodgers have lost the last four starts made by Hyun-Jin Ryu, and were recently swept 4 at Chavez Ravine by Colorado.
Buster Sports
Dodgers at Rockies
Play: Over 11.5
The LA Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies both have something to play for tonight as the Dodgers are trying to seal up first place overall and the Rockies are trying to get the last NL wild-card berth. The starting pitchers for tonight’s game are for the Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-8, 3.47 ERA) and he will face the Rockies RH Chad Bettis (1-4, 5.72 ERA) We will be on the over in this game tonight and here is why. The last time Ryu faced the Rockies in Colorado he was beat up for 10 runs in 4 innings. Colorado has been excellent against left-handed pitching this year, as they rank 2nd in hits and 3rd in OPS against LH. As for Bettis, he has been terrible in his last three starts as he is sporting an 8.10 ERA with an ugly WHIP of 2.100. When Bettis faces the Dodgers things are not much better as he has a 6.32 ERA with a WHIP of 1.787 in his career when he faces them. We will see tons of runs tonight at the bandbox that is Coors Field.