Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, September 2nd, 2016

Alex Smart

Toledo vs. Arkansas St
Play: Toledo +3

Toledo beat up on ASU two seasons ago in the GoDaddy Bowl, 63-44, and clobbered them by a 37-7 count in Toledo last season. The Rockets lead the all-time series, 4-0 SU and according to my own numbers and matchup statistics this years version of the Rockets are being vastly under rated here vs a Arkansas State side, that I am betting will not be as explosive as last season. With new QBs and wide recievers, it will take time for this Red Wolves team to jell . With that said, I expect the Red Wolves will struggle for cohesiveness vs a Toledo team that beat Arkansas last season, and blew out Bowling Green the eventual MAC Champions. With the Rockets offense getting back four starters on a line that allowed just four sacks, and opened up the lanes for 208 ypg rushing I expect this catalyst will be the key to us getting a cover on a value underdog line in this tilt .

Power Sports

Toledo vs. Arkansas St
Pick: Arkansas St -3

Playing in the MAC and Sun Belt respectively, one wouldn't think of Toledo and Arkansas State having any kind of "rivalry." But Friday night marks the third year in a row that the schools will "hook up." The first meeting came in the 2014 GoDaddy.com Bowl and saw UT win 63-44. The Rockets then hosted last year and won by an even wider margin, 37-7. Arkansas State was held to -14 yards rushing in the game. But several factors have me ready to say that "the third time will be the charm" for the Red Wolves, most notably the fact the game takes place in Jonesboro. Lay the points.

Toledo is coming off a 10-2 (SU) season and was arguably the best team the MAC had to offer in 2015. But their two losses were both killers as they came against divison foes, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan. This year's squad has only 11 starters back (just 4 on defense) for a new head coach, Jason Candle, who replaces Matt Campbell (went to Iowa State). As was the case w/ Campbell, Candle was the OC and simply elevated to the head position. I feel this is a tough spot for Candle to make his debut. The Rockets are only 1-9 SU in "true" road openers when not facing a MAC opponent. That win came last year, a stunning outright win over Arkansas (as 21-pt dogs). I don't see any kind of repeat of that performance here.

Arkansas State, like Toledo, was the best team in its conference last year. The difference is they won the Sun Belt, going a perfect 8-0 SU. Their last regular season loss was to Toledo. Revenge will obviously be a factor here. In last year's 30-pt loss, five ASU turnovers led to 17 Rockets' points. Getting this rematch at home is huge as the Red Wolves are 26-4 SU their L30 games at Centennial Bank Stadium. They have a returning starter (Sr. Chad Voytik) while Toledo does not. Look for ASU to ruin Candle's debut and cover this spread with "room to spare."

Kyle Hunter

Ball St vs. Georgia St
Play: Under 52½

The Georgia State Panthers offense was all about quarterback Nick Arbuckle the last couple years. Arbuckle threw for more than 7,600 yards in the past two years. This Georgia State team went from 0-12 in 2013 to 6-7 and a bowl berth last year. Arbuckle had a lot to do with that, and he will be missed.

Georgia State has no one experienced at quarterback ready to step in, and they also have almost no running game. The Panthers offense is going to have to find its way this year, and I think that will take some time. While Georgia State was 47th in tempo last year, I expect a slower pace to start the year with a new signal caller.

Georgia State's defense was much improved last year, and that was the other big reason for their overall improvement as a team. The Panthers have a defensive-minded coach in Trent Miles. Georgia State allowed 43.4 points per game two years and only 28.3 per game last year. This defense returns nine guys and is a senior-laden group. Look for further improvement here.

Ball State returned 10 guys on offense last year and still only managed 23.3 points per game. These two teams played last year at Ball State and the Cardinals only managed 19 points in a loss. Ball State returns 6 guys on offense last year, and like Georgia State I think they need to find an identity. It should take some time.

Defensively, Ball State returns nine starters from last year and star Darnell Smith who missed all of last year with an injury is back as well.

I see a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under.

Strike Point Sports

Chicago Cubs (-1.5) over San Francisco

For this free play, this is a matchup of two potential playoff teams that could see each other in the postseason, but I'm not sure if both pitchers would be making a start if they were to meet in a series. Jon Lester will certainly be pitching for the Cubs if they continue on their path to the playoffs. Lester has been great all season, and he is 7-2 with a 2.01 ERA at home on the year. He has been even better in August as he has produced a 3-0 record with a 1.71 ERA. Matt Cain, on the other hand, hasn't been very good this year and has battled injuries throughout the season. He has been brutal on the road this year, going 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA and in his last two starts he has allowed 11 earned runs over 8.2 innings pitched. San Francisco has struggled since the All-Star break, and even though they are getting healthier I still like the Cubs to win this game. Chicago has the best home record in the National League at 46-19, and I think they will add to that win total in this contest.

Robert Ferringo

Kansas State (+15.5) over Stanford

If I have said it once I have said it a thousand times: Bill Snyder is a national treasure! He is one of the greatest coaches in college football history. And the hallmark of Snyder teams is his ability to cash as an underdog. Snyder has gone 20-6 ATS the last 26 times he has been catching points, and he has 10 outright upsets in those games. I don't think the Wildcats have the goods to steal a win from Stanford, but I will be really surprised if this one is a blowout. Stanford is replacing a four-year starter at quarterback in Kevin Hogan and installing a redshirt junior at QB (Ryan Burns) that has exactly one college pass attempt on his resume. In fact, David Shaw has said that he will play both of his quarterbacks (Keller Chryst is the other) in this game, which could really hurt Stanford's offensive flow. Frankly, I think that the Cardinal are way overrated at No. 8 in the country right now. They are a big, powerful team. But they play the same smash-mouth style that K-State favors, and I don't see the Wildcats getting plowed over. Kansas State took on four Top 10 teams last year and played three of them (Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor) within a touchdown apiece (3-0 ATS). Stanford has been one of the best bets in college football the last six years, going 38-18 ATS at home and 49-24 ATS in their last 73 games overall. But that's made them a bit overvalued. I think Stanford will do enough to win here. But I see a vintage Snyder we-can't-seem-to-shake-these-guys game and a 33-24 win for the home team - but cover for us.

Kyle Hunter

Ball St vs. Georgia St
Play: Under 52½

The Georgia State Panthers offense was all about quarterback Nick Arbuckle the last couple years. Arbuckle threw for more than 7,600 yards in the past two years. This Georgia State team went from 0-12 in 2013 to 6-7 and a bowl berth last year. Arbuckle had a lot to do with that, and he will be missed.

Georgia State has no one experienced at quarterback ready to step in, and they also have almost no running game. The Panthers offense is going to have to find its way this year, and I think that will take some time. While Georgia State was 47th in tempo last year, I expect a slower pace to start the year with a new signal caller.

Georgia State's defense was much improved last year, and that was the other big reason for their overall improvement as a team. The Panthers have a defensive-minded coach in Trent Miles. Georgia State allowed 43.4 points per game two years and only 28.3 per game last year. This defense returns nine guys and is a senior-laden group. Look for further improvement here.

Ball State returned 10 guys on offense last year and still only managed 23.3 points per game. These two teams played last year at Ball State and the Cardinals only managed 19 points in a loss. Ball State returns 6 guys on offense last year, and like Georgia State I think they need to find an identity. It should take some time.

Defensively, Ball State returns nine starters from last year and star Darnell Smith who missed all of last year with an injury is back as well.

I see a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under.

Power Sports

Toledo vs. Arkansas St
Pick: Arkansas St

Playing in the MAC and Sun Belt respectively, one wouldn't think of Toledo and Arkansas State having any kind of "rivalry." But Friday night marks the third year in a row that the schools will "hook up." The first meeting came in the 2014 GoDaddy.com Bowl and saw UT win 63-44. The Rockets then hosted last year and won by an even wider margin, 37-7. Arkansas State was held to -14 yards rushing in the game. But several factors have me ready to say that "the third time will be the charm" for the Red Wolves, most notably the fact the game takes place in Jonesboro. Lay the points.

Toledo is coming off a 10-2 (SU) season and was arguably the best team the MAC had to offer in 2015. But their two losses were both killers as they came against divison foes, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan. This year's squad has only 11 starters back (just 4 on defense) for a new head coach, Jason Candle, who replaces Matt Campbell (went to Iowa State). As was the case w/ Campbell, Candle was the OC and simply elevated to the head position. I feel this is a tough spot for Candle to make his debut. The Rockets are only 1-9 SU in "true" road openers when not facing a MAC opponent. That win came last year, a stunning outright win over Arkansas (as 21-pt dogs). I don't see any kind of repeat of that performance here.

Arkansas State, like Toledo, was the best team in its conference last year. The difference is they won the Sun Belt, going a perfect 8-0 SU. Their last regular season loss was to Toledo. Revenge will obviously be a factor here. In last year's 30-pt loss, five ASU turnovers led to 17 Rockets' points. Getting this rematch at home is huge as the Red Wolves are 26-4 SU their L30 games at Centennial Bank Stadium. They have a returning starter (Sr. Chad Voytik) while Toledo does not. Look for ASU to ruin Candle's debut and cover this spread with "room to spare.

Brad Diamond

Army vs. Temple
Play: Army +16

Conflicting data generated through injury and other reports gives us some soft returning starter numbers on both sides of the ball for Temple and Army Friday night up in Philadelphia. The Owls log back in with a “projected” 12 returning letters starting. The Black Knights show with approximately 16 lettermen at starting positions. The contrast surely is in the numbers as Temple is coming off a 10-win season and a 32-17 Bowl loss to Toledo, whereas Army shuttering from a 2-10 campaign and a heart breaking 21-17 loss to 11-2 Navy at seasons end looks to defeat the Owls for the first time since 2007. Temple comes 6-0 SU & ATS versus Army. Can’t help believe coach Rhule with experienced core will lose to the smallish Knights at home. In the hot weather expect a Temple lead early as they coast to a 10-point win, as Army cashes the back door.

Jim Feist

Colorado St vs Colorado
Pick: Under

A high total here in a rivalry game, so look for both defenses to show up. Colorado State enters 2016 looking to continue a run of three straight winning seasons and bowl appearances. CSU has QB Nick Stevens (21 TDs, 12 interceptions last season) and the Colorado State ground game is strong with Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews, who combined to rush for 1,678 yards and eight TDs a year ago. The Rams are 4-0 under the total at neutral site games and 8-2-1 under against the Pac 12. They face a rebuilding Colorado squad that struggles to run the football, 3.7 yards per carry last year. After early showing signs of progress running the modified Pistol offense, Colorado suffered a dip in scoring and yards per play. QB Sefo Liufau missed spring and is still recovering from a difficult foot injury, while senior Jordan Gehrke has limited upside. Colorado is on a 4-0 run under the total and the Under is 5-1 in the Buffaloes last 6 neutral site games. Explosiveness was virtually non-existent, and now the attack will regroup without its most feared weapon, all-league WR Nelson Spruce. The under is 7-1 in the last the 8 meetings, 4-0 under at Colorado.

Rob Vinciletti

Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -140

The Phils have a nice pitching edge with Hellickson who is 2-0 with a 3 Era vs the Braves over DeLacruz who is 0-4 on the road with a 5.59 Era. The Braves are 1-9 on the road off a home win and the Phillies qualify in a solid system that plays on home favorites off a +140 or higher home dog loss scoring 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a home win scoring 5 or more runs like Atlanta. Play on the Phillies in this one.

Brandon Shively

Kansas State vs. Stanford
Play: Kansas State +15½

Kansas State averaged 4.7 yards per play, ranked 112th last year. The QB play was terrible due to injuries and should be better this year, but this year they lose 4 starters on the offensive line and we don’t think they will be able to score many points on this Stanford defense. While Kansas State has much more talent and explosiveness at the receiver position, the QB has to have time in the pocket to get the guys the ball and the Cardinals are more healthy on the D-Line this season and have big, physical linebackers. Stanford will also have a decent to excellent defense. It’s really all about what the offense does with new QB Chryst who will replace Hogan. Sure, they have Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey, but they lose two offensive linemen to the NFL and we don't’ think McCaffrey will have the season he is being hyped for. So this leads us to a defensive game with sub-par offensive play. The bad news is the sharps pounded this total down from the opener of 54 to 50. Stanford went 5-0 ATS last year as a favorite of 11.5+ points. We think the oddsmaker inflated this line slightly knowing they got burnt last year when the Cardinals were laying double digits. Kansas State is 4-0 ATS their L4 games as a 14+ point underdog.This is the most points they have gotten since the 2012 season when the Wildcats beat Oklahoma SU, 24-19, as a 15.5 point road dog.

Ross Benjamin

Toledo vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State -4½

Since 2011, Arkansas State has gone a terrific 26-4 (86.7%) at home. They’ll also be out to revenge an embarrassing 37-7 loss at Toledo a season ago. Toledo will have a dynamic rushing attack in 2016. Nevertheless, Arkansas St. possesses a stout defensive line fully capable of neutralizing Toledo’s running game, and in turn takes the Rockets out of its comfort zone.

Any home favorite of 11.0 or less in its season opener, and is playing with revenge, resulted in those home teams going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2010. They won those 13 contests by an average of 17.1 points per game. Take Arkansas State minus the small number.

Bill Biles

Toledo vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State -4½

Arkansas State won the Sun Belt with a perfect 8-0 record, and will look to repeat. They lost to Toledo last season and will look to avenge that loss at home this year. Toledo lost more than half of their starters so they will have trouble early.

DAVE COKIN

KANSAS STATE AT STANFORD
PLAY: KANSAS STATE +15

Bill Snyder’s 2015 Kansas State team was beset by injuries and some subpar QB play. Gotta figure there’s improvement on both counts this season. Even in the midst of what was clearly a down year for the Wildcats, they were a competitive team for the most part. I definitely expect improvement from the Wildcats this season, although this is a very difficult opening week assignment. From a spread standpoint, Snyder plus doubles is take or leave it alone, he’s too good a coach to give that much to. But I’m still skeptical about their offense, and therefore the ability to stay in if they happen to fall behind early.

I’m also curious to see how Stanford HC David Shaw approaches games with a big time Heisman candidate in Christian McCaffrey. Shaw has been conservative by nature but did open things up some last season with the very heady Kevin Hogan at QB. With much less experience under center this season, I wonder if Shaw goes back to his old tight collar ways.

As a fan, I’m hoping Shaw plays the role of bully when the opportunity arises. McCaffrey is one of the most exciting college players I’ve ever seen, and I want to see him given every chance to win the Heisman. That’s not going to be easy for a variety of reasons, so it behooves Shaw to try and get his superstar as much positive notice as possible. I just don’t know if he’ll do that.

Stanford is the better team and if the QB play is good, this will be a very tough squad to compete with, much less pull the upset against. That’s the case tonight, as even if Kansas State plays its best game, I doubt that it will be enough to win outright. My projected line is right about where the books have it, as I made the Cardinal -14. But I certainly lean to the visiting Wildcats on the strength of Snyder and the belief that the underdog might be a shade underrated, even on my personal power rankings.

So while this just missed the cut as a personal play, it’s what I’d classify as a decent lean, and with the line now above the tw0-TD level, Kansas State would be the side I’d favor at +15.