Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Friday, September 30th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Rob Vinciletti
Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Mets -150
The Mets fit a power system that is cashing over 85% long term and plays on road favorites off a road dog win vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs with no errors. The Mets are averaging over 9 runs the past week and are surging toward a wild card berth. They have won 18 of the last 26 here in Philly and have R. Gsellman and his superb 2.53 Era on the mound. He has been solid vs the Phillies with a 2.77 era. The Phillies counter with Asher who has a dismal 7.97 Era vs the Mets and they are 12-27 vs winning teams. Look for the Mets to take the opener.
Matt Josephs
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -123
The Yankees start their final home series of the season as they host the Orioles. Michael Pineda has pitched well as of late giving up three runs and 10 hits in his last 15 innings of work striking out 23 while walking just six. Pineda has faced the Orioles twice in 2016 allowing just two runs and 10 hits in 10 innings. This once fierce Baltimore lineup has scored just 31 runs in their last 12 games so they limp down the stretch to a potential playoff berth. The Yankees bullpen has an ERA under three at home this season. Yovani Gallardo is 3-5 with a 6.71 ERA and a WHIP of 1.700 in 12 road starts for the O's. He has lost both his starts at Yankees Stadium allowing 12 runs and 11 hits in just over eight innings. The Yankees have scored 23 runs over their four game win streak and have played some awesome baseball to close out the season. They have won five of the seven meetings between the two at home in this series. I think that trend continues on Friday.
Sean Murphy
Stanford vs. Washington
Play: Stanford +3½
Both of these teams enter this Pac-12 showdown sporting flawless records. However, Stanford has also managed to go a perfect 3-0 ATS while Washington checks in just 2-2 ATS.
I do feel that the Cardinal are the superior team in this matchup, even if they have shown some chinks in their armor through their first three contests.
It's not as if Washington has been on cruise control. Note that the Huskies needed overtime to beat Arizona last week (we cashed with the Wildcats in that one). Washington has been favored by at least 16 points in all four games so far, laying at least 25 points in three of those.
Stanford is the more battle-tested team having faced Kansas State, USC and UCLA so far this season. The Cardinal have been stout defensively and opportunistic offensively, and here I look for them to put forth a more efficient performance than we've seen here in 2016.
The underdog is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, with only Stanford covering as a favorite over that stretch - a 31-14 win over Washington last year.
Jim Feist
Tigers at Braves
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Tigers lose the DH for this series. Lefty Daniel Norris (3.59 ERA) has had a fine season and the Under is 3-0-1 in Norris' last 4 starts during game 1 of a series. He faces a weak Atlanta offense but starter Matt Wisler is off to strong starts allowing 2 runs in each game. Wisler didn't factor into the decision against the Marlins on Friday, giving up two earned runs on two hits and three walks over six innings. He struck out five in the 3-2 win. He hasn't surrendered a homer since Aug. 31 against the Padres. And the Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Atlanta.
Dr Bob
Stanford (+3½) 23 WASHINGTON 21
This game could decide the winner of the Pac 12 North division and we’ll find out just how good Washington really is. While Stanford has been beating good teams Kansas State, USC, and UCLA by an average score of 25-12 the Huskies started the season with three home games against bad teams (Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State) before being tested last week at Arizona. Washington needed overtime to tame the Wildcats, which calls into question just how good the Huskies are (since my model doesn’t think much of Arizona).
Washington’s offense has averaged 7.2 yards per play and 46 points per game but the Huskies have faced 4 bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yards per play to an average offensive team. The best defense that Washington faced was Arizona last week (Arizona is 0.5 yppl worse than average) and the Huskies were limited to 28 points in regulation. Washington was only 0.3 yppl better than average last season and their starters have been +0.5 yppl this season so far, which is pretty close to what I projected before the season began.
That unit should be held in check by a good Stanford defense that has limited 3 better than average offensive teams to just 12 points and 5.2 yards per play. Stanford will be without their two starting cornerbacks Meeks and Holder, but the two filling in, Murphy and Alexander, have combined for 5 passes defended and the Cardinal defense played great in the second half last week after Meeks and Holder were injured. I did adjust the Stanford pass defense a bit even though there is no evidence that they’ll be any worse. My model does project Washington quarterback Jake Browning to have pretty good success (7.2 yppp) but the Huskies’ run game should be held in check by a strong Cardinal defensive front.
Washington’s defense was very good last season and has been very good so far this season, as the Huskies’ starting unit has been 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average and 2.0 yards per pass play better than average (they gave up a lot of passing yards in the first 3 games after their starters were pulled and I don’t use those stats in my model). Washington’s run defense is actually better than they’ve shown (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense) but Arizona’s elusive quarterback Dawkins ran for 180 yards on 11 runs last week. Those numbers aren’t relevant in this game since Stanford’s quarterback Ryan Burns has run only 9 times in 3 games (for 49 yards) and I used on Washington’s run defense numbers against running backs in my model for this game. the Huskies’ run defense has been great against running backs – although tonight they’ll be tested by Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey has averaged a good, but not great, 5.5 ypr so far this season but the Cardinal have faced teams that are really good defending the run (those teams would allow only 4.2 yprp to an average team), so he’s actually been really good when compensating for the defenses he’s faced so far. Washington should do a good job containing McCaffrey and the pass defense has an advantage over Burns but Stanford is historically good at converting 3rd downs and keeping drives alive and that has been the case against this season (50% 1st downs on 3rd and 4th down despite facing 3 good defensive teams).
While Washington should average more yards per play my model projects Stanford to run significantly more plays and for the totals yards to be pretty even. The Cardinal have the edge with their special teams, which helps with field position and converting stalled drives into points with a kicker that is among the best in the nation (24 for 26 on field goals since last season). I’ll call for a mini upset and side with the Cardinal plus the points.
Mark Franco
Stanford at Washington
Play: Washington
Junior running back Christian McCaffrey ranks second in the nation in rushing yards per game but is somehow considered to be experiencing a down season as he leads No. 6 Stanford into a Pac-12 showdown at No. 9 Washington on Friday night. McCaffrey's spectacular 2015 campaign in which he rushed for 2,019 yards and finished second in the Heisman Trophy balloting has made his 145.3 rushing yards per game seem pedestrian but only San Diego State's Donnel Pumphrey (199.7) has a better average.
McCaffrey rushed for 436 yards and leads the Cardinal in receiving (12 catches for 119 yards), which led frustrated coach David Shaw to say "when this kid doesn't get 300 yards of total offense, we say he got 'bottled up.'" Opponents are crowding the line to stop McCaffrey as senior quarterback Ryan Burns (395 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions) hasn't displayed the ability to be a downfield passing threat despite throwing the go-ahead touchdown pass with 24 seconds left to beat UCLA on Saturday.
Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning threw 14 touchdown passes against two interceptions this season while helping the Huskies rank 10th nationally in scoring offense at 45.8 points per game. Sophomore tailback Myles Gaskin has a team-leading 302 rushing yards but is being pushed by junior Lavon Coleman, who exploded for a career-best 181 yards on 11 carries in Saturday's 35-28 overtime victory over Arizona.
Rocketman
Toronto vs. Boston
Play: Boston -151
The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox on Friday night. Toronto is 87-72 SU overall this year while Boston comes in with a 92-67 SU overall record on the season. Rick Porcello is 22-4 with a 3.11 ERA overall this year, 13-1 with a 2.88 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA his last 3 starts. Toronto is scoring only 4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Boston is scoring 6 runs per game at home this year. Boston is allowing only 3.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Toronto is 1-6 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +150. Boston is 8-1 this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Under in Toledo and BYU.
The Rockets hit Provo this Friday night with an average of 42.6 points per game score, and Overs in their last pair of games!
That's all fine and dandy, but let's see if they can crank it up against a BYU team that is allowing an average of just 22 points per game to be scored against them. The Cougars holding Under in 3 of their 4 games this season as well.
BYU has only been able to score just under 21 points per game themselves, so in order to garner the win this Friday night, it would serve the Cougars well to keep Toledo from blasting off (pun intended).
With this being such an unusual trip for MAC rep Toledo, look for it to take a while for the Rockets to get acclimated, and look for the Under to be the play on Friday night.
Toledo-BYU Under the total.
2* TOLEDO-BYU UNDER
Brad Wilton
Friday comp play is the Nats over the Marlins.
Washington is looking to clinch home field advantage in the National League, so there is some importance for the Nationals as they take on the emotionally-drained Marlins.
Miami came out on Monday, and let it all hang out for their fallen teammate Jose Fernandez, but as you can see there simply isn't much left for the Marlins who play tonight's game fresh off their memorial service for Fernandez yesterday back home in Miami.
I am sure the Marlins cannot wait for Sunday's regular season finale, and I don't see how they get up for this final road series of the season?
Washington has won 10 of their last 14 games at home, and while they are nursing a few injuries, I will give them the play with Cole matching pitches against Cashner tonight.
Nats over the Marlins.
3* WASHINGTON
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles.
Only three games remain, and the Yankees are four games out. So there is no getting into the postseason. But there is playing out the season with pride.
And since the last few days have been more about David Ortiz's last series ever inside Yankee Stadium, now it's time for New York to show a little pride and soak up the cheers from the hometown crowd.
I know Baltimore needs wins, with Detroit and Seattle knocking on the American League wild card door, so the Yankees will be looking to play the spoiler role, and I like my chances in Game 1 of this series.
Lay the cheap chalk, and do not list pitchers.
3* YANKEES
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Angels against the Astros.
Neither of these teams is going to the playoffs, so the party is underway for a final weekend in Anaheim. And with the Halos riding a wave of momentum to close this season out, I like them.
The Angels have won three in a row and seven of 10, and two more wins gets them at 40-40 at home this season. That's a big deal for teams, to hit .500 at home.
Houston has struggled lately, and arrives after losing its home finale to Seattle two nights ago. The Astros won't be in to this game, or series, after being eliminated from postseason contention.
Take the Halos here.
2* ANGELS
Chris Jordan
Lo and behold, the Seattle Mariners are still alive in the American League wild card race. They're behind the Detroit Tigers, who are 1' games back, but the M's could still get in.
The New York Yankees are hosting the Baltimore Orioles, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the pinstripes sweep the O's in this series. If that happens, the Tigers or Mariners could sneak in.
Seattle won the series-opener last night, and the Athletics have now lost four in a row. Oakland has dropped into the basement of the AL West, and comes into the weekend having lost nine of its last 10 games.
The Mariners are 10-5 against the Athletics this season but just 2-4 at home. Seattle is playing for something now, though, and won't be losing at home this weekend.
5* MARINERS -1.5
BRANDON LEE
Cardinals -1½ +114
St Louis got a fortunate call in last night's 4-3 win over the Reds and I look for them to build on that with a comfortable win at home against rival Pittsburgh on Friday. The Cardinals will send out Carlos Martinez, who is coming into this one off back-to-back quality starts, but more importantly has pitched very well against the Pirates this season. In 3 starts, he's allowed just 5 runs in 18 2/3 innings of work. Pittsburgh will counter with Tyler Glasnow, who will be making just his 4th start. The first 3 haven't been great, as he comes in with a 6.35 ERA and 1.765 WHIP. He hasn't made it past the 3rd inning in each of his last two outings and was touched up for 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings at St Louis earlier this season.
JIMMY BOYD
Toledo +3½
Even though Toledo is 3-0 and BYU is just 1-3, I fully expect the public to be on the Cougars Friday. Oddsmakers are well aware of this, yet BYU is only a 3.5-point favorite. Keep in mind this line actually opened at 4.5, so early sharp money is on the Rockets.
The big thing that everyone is going to point to is the level of competition for both teams. Toledo has beat up on some bad teams in Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State. BYU on the other hand has 3 losses to the likes of Utah, UCLA and West Virginia. All coming by 3-points or less.
While Toledo has played some bad teams, it’s not like they are just scraping by against them. The Rockets have absolutely dominated the opposition. They come in averaging 42.7 ppg on a 564 ypg. Defensively they are only giving up 10.0 ppg and 252 ypg.
If you have watched Toledo play, you know they like to play fast offensively. Similarly to BYU’s last opponent in West Virginia. The Mountaineers up-tempo attack had plenty of success against the Cougars defense. West Virginia put up 481 yards and racked up 26 first downs. Most of that coming through the air, as Skylar Howard completed 31 of 40 attempts for 332 yards.
Toledo’s offense is led by the play of talented junior quarterback Logan Woodside. He’s completed 62.2% of his attempts with 11 touchdowns to just 1 interception. It’s not just the passing game BYU has to be worried about. The Cougars as a team are averaging 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. They have three talented backs who can wear down a defense.
Another big factor here that I think is getting overlooked is the fact that Toledo is coming off a bye. So while BYU is playing on just 5 days of rest, the Rockets will have had 12 days off since their last game. Keep in mind that the Cougars have played a gauntlet of a schedule to start and all 4 games have come down to the wire. If BYU doesn’t give Toledo the respect it deserves, I could easily see the Rockets winning this game.
BYU is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams who are averaging 450 or more totals yards/game. Toledo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off a home win by 28 or more points.