JACK JONES
Cardinals -1½ +114
The St. Louis Cardinals are in must-win mode over these final three games. They trail the San Francisco Giants by just one game for the final wild card spot in the National League, and came through with a huge win yesterday against the Reds to gain some momentum.
I expect the Cards to win by multiple runs today over the Pirates with ace Carlos Martinez on the mound. He is 15-9 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 30 starts this season. Martinez has allowed just 5 earned runs over 18 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Pirates.
The Pirates have nothing to play for but pride now. And they are giving Tyler Glasnow a look here late in the season. He is 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.765 WHIP in three starts this season. One of those came against the Cardinals on July 7th, where he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 1-5 loss.
The Cardinals are 23-9 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. St. Louis is 19-9 in Martinez's last 28 starts vs. NL Central opponents. The Cardinals are 28-10 in Martinez's last 38 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. St. Louis is 21-7 in Martinez's last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
DAVE PRICE
Baltimore Orioles +122
The Baltimore Orioles have a ton of momentum right now after they went on the road and beat the Blue Jays on Wednesday and Thursday. Now they are tied with the Blue Jays for the two wild card spots, and 1.5 games ahead of the Tigers. I believe they catch the Yankees at a good time as they are eliminated from postseason contention, and they just swept the rival Red Sox last series, so they are in for a letdown here. And we're getting the Orioles as underdogs here to boot. The Yankees are 1-5 in Pineda's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toledo +3½ over BYU
The Rockets enter with a record of 3-0 but the market is not putting a lot of weight on their early season success. Toledo has beaten down on two cupcakes (Fresno State and Maine) after yielding an impressive rout of Arkansas State in its season opening contest on the road at Jonesboro.
BYU comes in at 1-3, the victims of three consecutive losses, all of which were by marginal differences of three points or less. The list of bitter losses includes Utah 17-14 in the latest adaptation of The Holy War, UCLA by the slight score of 20-19 and most recently a demoralizing road loss at West Virginia where the Cougars once again fell by just a field goal. With the losses stacking up for the Cougars against Power Five Conference competition, this match-up against Toledo seems like a walk in the park for the men of Brigham Young. However, Toledo is not your average Group of Five football team. Furthermore, we don’t know how BYU will come in to this one in terms of the psyche from losing game after game in such disparaging fashion.
The Cougars will need to bring their A-game against the Rockets and they may not have it in them. This is a Toledo squad that won 10 games in 2015 and they have traveled to hostile environments on the road before and pulled off victories. Ask Arkansas about Toledo’s efforts when the highly touted Razorbacks fell in their opening game of 2015 at home against this same Toledo outfit. Furthermore, let us regurgitate the fact that this team ransacked Arkansas State on the road to open the season and Ark State in their own right was a nine-game winner last year. The Rockets assaulted Arkansas State 31-10. While to many, Toledo may have lost their razor’s edge but this team has never sharper. Toledo will approach BYU no differently than they do any other team it faces with a robust defense complemented by an innovative rushing attack that when it gets going, is seemingly unstoppable. Sure, many can make the argument that BYU has played a tough schedule and is a play away in all of them from being 4-0 but losses take a toll and they provide a mindset too. Cougars’ backers beware, as this game will be no walk in the park. Toledo is a football team that can easily be playing for bowl games of consequence in the near future. They are good enough to be in this one to the wire and they’re also good enough to win outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON -1½ +177 over Miami
The Nationals need one more win to secure home-field edge over the Dodgers and we’re rather confident that they are going to give it everything they have in order to put it to rest. The Nats are two games up on L.A. but the Dodgers own the tiebreaker after going 5-1 against Washington this year. Under normal circumstances, we would not be interested in spotting runs with A.J. Cole on the hill but playing the Marlins on the final weekend of the year is anything but normal. Jose Fernandez’s funeral was yesterday so one has to believe the somber mood in that Marlins locker room remains. Cole has looked like a young starter with a lot of potential in September with a BB/K split of 4/19 in 16 innings. That level of dominance and command has helped him produce an outstanding base performance value during the last month of the season. With rock solid control against both lefty and righty bats, Cole also doesn't have a significant split holding him back. The missing piece to him becoming a strong starter is a groundball pitch but Miami is second last in the majors in HR’s so his fly-ball lean profile is not likely to hurt him here. Aside from being unmotivated and/or unfocused to a high degree, the Marlins OPS in the second half is the lowest in the majors.
Andrew Cashner is about as average or below as anyone. He comes in with a 5.13 ERA, a 4.61 xERA, a 1.51 WHIP and a weak swing and miss rate of 8%. Over his last five starts, Cashner’s ERA is 7.17. He’s also walked 16 batters over his past 21 innings. Cashner’s control is waning. His numbers versus LHB continues to be ugly with a swing and miss rate of 6%, an oppBA of .287 and a OPS of .889 (!). The Nationals are loaded with left-handed bats and figure to do damage against Cashner here, just like they have in the past when facing him. Miami’s story in the final week of the 2016 season will be told but it’s not going to include giving the Nationals a hard time in Washington’s clinching game for first place.
CINCINNATI +117 over Chicago
Josh Smith appeared in nine games (7 starts) with Cincinnati in 2015 and didn’t fare well (6.89 ERA). He has appeared in 31 games this year covering just 55 frames but has started just one game. Smith has a good arm, above average control, and a deep repertoire. He’s been mostly a starter in his career, though a less-than-stellar change-up could mean he’d be better off in the bullpen over the long-term. Smith induces groundballs with a low-90s fastball with late life and complements it with a good curveball and average slider. Though he doesn’t have a true plus pitch, he’s been able to register strikeouts by shrewd sequencing and polished pitching instincts. He’ll now face a Cubbies’ team that has no interest whatsoever in playing three meaningless games in the final weekend of the year.
Chicago’s players have stated that playing this past week has felt like the third week of spring training. Joe Maddon’s plans are to give the regulars one or two at bats and then use call-ups. The Cubbies are a unmotivated bunch that cannot wait for the playoffs to begin and right now they are just showing up in body only. The Reds will play hard like they always do and they’ll feature an offense very capable of scoring. Jake Buchanan gets his first start of the year and is being used as a warm body to fill in. Buchanan is a soft-tossing strike-thrower with fairly pedestrian minor league numbers. Buchanan has been riding buses for years. He has close to 850 career minor-league innings under his belt for several different teams since 2010. Buchanan has 45 career MLB innings (1 inning this year) and they are ugly with a 4.17 ERA but a 6.22 xERA. Chicago favored here is wrong and we must try and take advantage.