Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, September 9th, 2016

Strike Point Sports

Syracuse (+14.5) over Louisville

This is a big spot for coach Dino Babers and the Syracuse Orange. No, I do not see them winning this game, but I do see them making it more competitive than the line suggests. Babers has been all over local radio and the news urging the fans to wear Orange to make it an "Orange-out" at the dome. Does this make a team win a game? Absolutely not, but a Friday night game in Syracuse is a big deal for the Orange and their fans. Louisville's offense will give the Cuse defense fits, but Syracuse will be able to stall them just enough to keep this game within the number. The Syracuse offense, lead by Eric Dungy, has enough talent to but up a minimum of three touchdowns. This will be enough for Syracuse backers to cash at the window. Louisville wins, but not by enough, 34-24.

DAVE COKIN

ROYALS AT WHITE SOX
PLAY: WHITE SOX -107

I’m staying on Carlos Rodon, who is a little under the radar as the #3 starter on a non-contender. But Rodon is pitching more like a #1 right now, as his improved overall command is making that filthy slider an almost unhittable offering.

Yordano Ventura had been pitching well, and had seemingly found his form after struggling for much of the season. But Ventura has gone backwards in his last couple of appearances. The big red flag is the sudden resurfacing of poor control, as Ventura has walked eight in his last two outing, while registering only three K’s. That’s a strong sell signal in my estimation.

So one elevator up, one down and while they are not out of it, the Royals are now sixth in the wild card chase, so the reality is they’re on the verge of falling out of this chase. I mulled over playing this game just F5 on the starting pitching comparison. But the fact remains the White Sox bullpen at home has actually been rock solid, and I’d rather therefore go ahead and get what will be a better price with the full game play on the Chisox.

Scott Spreitzer

Dodgers vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins +132

Jose Fernandez had a tough outing at Cleveland but he still is close to invincible at home with a 10-2 record and 1.91 ERA this year and Miami has won 31 of his last 36 home starts. Fernandez has faced Los Angeles once this season and gave up two runs in six innings at Dodger Stadium. In his two starts before the Cleveland loss, Fernandez pitched 13 shutout innings against the Royals and Mets while allowing only a total of nine hits. Clayton Kershaw comes off the disabled list to make his first start since June 26 and he'll probably be limited to five or six innings. Miami beat Kershaw in April when he allowed five runs and seven hits in seven innings. The Marlins have won 13 of their last 19 home games against left-handed starters. Fernandez as a home underdog is too good to pass up.

Matt Josephs

New York at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -121

Julio Teheran loves facing the Mets. The righty saw them twice in the span of six days back in June allowing just six hits in 17 innings of work. He is 6-3 with a 2.01 ERA and a WHIP of 1.000 in 12 starts against the Mets. New York is hitting just .239 against right-handed starters and .235 in NL East games. I think their lineup is highly mediocre. Robert Gsellman makes his first start on the road for the Mets. He's allowed five runs and 13 hits in two home outings beating Washington while losing to Philly. Atlanta is in good form offensively hitting .288 in their last seven games while averaging 5.7 runs per game. They are hitting a respectable .252 at home this season. The Braves have nearly split this series going 6-7.

Freddy Wills

Maryland vs. Florida International
Play: Florida International +11

I have this game 6, but given the fact that Maryland blew out Howard 52-13, and Indiana, a Big 10 team covered at Florida International easily (on the scoreboard) we have some line value.

First of all I bet on FIU, and it was one of my 2 losses on the 8-2-1 ATS week 1 in college football. We were somewhat unlucky when you consider their 3rd year QB threw thee interceptions and two of them went back for TD’s. This was a 13-12 game in the 4th quarter before Indiana scored 22 straight points. I have Maryland below Indiana as they only return 12 starters compared to Indiana who had 16 guys coming back. Maryland also lost at home to Indiana 28-47 last year.

Maryland has a lot of high hopes as they typically do year in and year out, but I see this as a tough spot going down to Miami to play on a Friday night. Yes, they beat Howard 52-13 to open the season, but Howard was a 1-10 team last year and got beat by Boston College 76-0. BC could not score points at all last year. Maryland brings in DJ Durkin to take over and of course he has a ton of good coaching pedigree having coached under Urban Meyer at Bowling Green, and Jim Harbough at Michigan and Stanford, but I’m not sold on some of his decisions which include bringing in 3 former head coaches to help him out. I much rather see a young head coach bring in other young hungry guys who are going to work hard to move up than 3 former head coaches. One of the guys is Mike London, who got fired from Virginia. A lot of egos and I’m not so sure this is going to be very good for Maryland.

I think Florida International gets the offense clicking more on Friday night against this defense, and their defense should look better too. I just see too much line value to pass on this game.

Mike Lundin

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Red Sox -105

The Boston Red Sox travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in a huge three-game series between the AL East foes. Boston sits top of the division with Toronto just one game back, and I think the Red Sox remain on top after the conclusion of this contest.

Rick Porcello (19-3, 3.23 ERA) takes the ball for the Red Sox. He held the A's to two runs and four hits over seven innings his last time out, and he's undefeated behind a 2.47 ERA through his last six starts. The 27 year old is 6-7 with a 5.27 ERA against Toronto throughout his career but 2-0 in three meetings on the season.

The Blue Jays turn to Marco Estrada (8-7, 3.56 ERA) who surrendered five runs on seven hits in five innings of a 7-5 loss at Baltimore his last start. That was the third time in his last four outings he was charged with five runs or more, and he is 3-5 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 starts this season at Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays have dropped four of their last five while the Red Sox are 5-2 in their last seven. Both teams had Thursday off which sets up a nice spot for Boston which is 6-0 in its last six games following an off day while Toronto is 3-7 in its last 10 such situations.

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco vs. Arizona
Play: San Francisco -185

The Giants have won 6 of the last 7 here in Arizona but are too high a favorite too unit rate tonight. SF is 8-1 as a road favorite at -175 or more. Arizona is a terrible 3-19 as a home dog of +175 or more and 8-19 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. Bumgarner for SF has a solid 2.42 career Era vas the Diamondbacks and has better overall numbers then DE Larosa for Arizona. To top it off SF qualifies in a road warrior system that is winning 91% since 2004. Play on the Giants.

Jim Feist

Rockies at Padres
Pick: Under

Petco Park is huge, great for pitchers, tough on offenses. Colorado hits well at home in Coors Field but not as well away from home. They have a good arm going in Tyler Chatwood (3.94 ERA) with a 1.82 ERA on the road. The Under is 15-7-1 in Chatwood's last 23 starts. San Diego has a weak offense and the Under is 5-1 in the Padres last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings, including 5-2 under the total at San Diego.

Buster Sports

Tampa Bay at New York
Play: Tampa Bay +132

The Yankees and Rays play their 2nd game of their 4 game series in NY tonight. The Yankees have now won 5 in a row and are only 2 games back of a wildcard spot and 4 games back of the division race. Who says the Yankees have packed it in for the season. Today however, we are going to step in front of that Yankee train as we have a nice pitching matchup with great value in our favor. Starting tonight are for the Rays LH Blake Snell (5-7, 3.39 ERA) and he faces the Yankees RH Michael Pineda (6-11, 5.10 ERA) Snell has pitched well in his rookie season for the Rays and at times he has lacked some run support or his win/loss record would be better. Snell has started twice against the Yankees this year and he has an impressive 2.61 ERA with a WHIP of 1.065. As for Pineda he has not had the year he has wanted for the Yankees. Of late he has been terrible. In his last 3 starts he has a 7.05 ERA with a WHIP of 1.50. The Rays have owned him all year. In 3 starts against Tampa Bay he has given up 18 runs with 6 HR going 0-3. This will play heavy on the mind of Pineda tonight. Tampa Bay has loved being the spoiler in the American League East and we see them doing so again. We are getting great value tonight at real nice plus money. So like we always say when we see this kind of value we have to take it.

David Banks

Louisville @ Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse +15

It’s a Friday night at the Carrier Dome where the 13th-ranked Louisville Cardinals will take on ACC foe Syracuse. The Orange got off to a good start in Week 1 of new head coach Dino Babers’ regime. Syracuse beat up on FCS Colgate 33-7. Louisville got off to an even better start destroying Charlotte 70-14.

Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson let the nation know that he is one of the nation’s best by accounting for 405 yards of total offense and eight, yes eight, touchdowns. The 6-3, 205-pound sophomore was 17-of-23 for 286 yards passing and six touchdowns. He rushed for 119 more and scored twice on the ground. The Louisville offense racked up 663 total yards, while Louisville defensive coordinator Todd Grantham’s defense limited Charlotte to just 208. If not for giving the ball to the 49ers at their 39-yard line and then a late fumble return for a TD, the Cardinals would have recorded a shutout.

The Orange thrived in Week 1 in Babers’ hyper-speed offense. Quarterback Eric Dungey revitalized his career working in the spread offense. He was a very efficient 34-for-40 for 355 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Colgate. Dungey and wide receiver Amba Etta-Tawo, who had 12 receptions for 210 yards last week, will have to be sharp if the Orange is to have a chance on Friday night.

Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino has joked that he would like Louisville to hire slower chain gangs to effect fast-paced offenses like Syracuse’s. Chains are supposed to be set prior to each snap. The Orange ran 81 plays against Colgate and got a play off roughly every 22 seconds. Babers would like to be faster and if the Orange are, they present a problem for the Cardinals.

Bruce Marshall

Royals +109

Not ready to discard the Royals quite yet as the offense did come alive earlier this week vs. the Twins. Kansas City also looks very good value tonight as the Royals have won in seven straight starts made by Yordano Ventura, who has not allowed more than three earned runs in a game since July 3. Chisox starter Carlos Rodon also pitching effectively of late, but can't pass up the plus price on the still playoff-hopeful Royals.

Harry Bondi

SYRACUSE +15 over Louisville

Tonight, we go against a Louisville team that is in the mother of all bad scheduling spots. The Cardinals came out flying last week in the season opener and got a lot of attention for thumping Charlotte, 70-14. Now, after a week of reading their press clippings, seeing their highlights on ESPN and jumping seven spots in the AP poll, the team has to travel north, play in a dome and lay double digits to an inferior opponent while trying not to look ahead to next week’s huge home game against Florida State. Talk about a sandwich game! The Orange have a new head coach in Dino Babers, who comes over from Bowling Green where he won the MAC Championship, and he has installed an up-tempo offense that will have his QB throwing until the final gun. This is a “Game of the Year” type of situation for Syracuse (national TV, standalone game at home vs. the No. 12 team in the country), while Louisville will be looking to escape without any major injuries and try to stay fresh for FSU next week. Let’s take those points!

Bob Balfe

Marlins +120

Clayton Kershaw makes his way back from the DL tonight. I don’t expect to see him go toe to toe against Jose Fernandez. If this were a playoff game we would be treated to one of the best strikeout pitching match ups we could see. The Marlins are pretty good against left handed pitching and need a big series here.

Bruce Marshall

Brewers +200

Even though St. Louis has won the last four starts made by Carlos Martinez, on principle we must take the Brewers, considering this rather large price and the Cardinals' continuing inability to make Busch Stadium any sort of advantage this season after yet another loss last night when Milwaukee scored 12 runs. The Redbirds are just 30-38 at home and Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson has pitched well in 2 of his last 3 starts, the Brewers winning each of those vs. the Bucs and Rockies.