John Ryan
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona +185
Technical Discussion Points: Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-19 over the last 5 seasons good for 62.7% winners and made 18.2 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ARIZONA) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against a good starting pitcher (ERA under 3.70) -NL, playing on Friday. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 23-32 (-19.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season; 14-20 (-15.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season; 18-24 (-12.5 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. Arizona is 57-52 (+16.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Giants are 3-13 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series. Giants are 0-7 in their last 7 games following an off day. Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Giants are 1-5 in Bumgarner's last 6 road starts. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Diamondbacks are 6-1 in De La Rosa's last 7 Friday starts.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Paul Goldschmidt is 13-for-44 with a pair of homers versus Bumgarner. The Diamondbacks swept four from San Francisco to begin the season series. The Giants have not won back-to-back road games since June 30 at Oakland and July 1 at Arizona. Take Arizona Diamondbacks.
BRANDON LEE
Tigers -102
Detroit is worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Orioles. This is simply too good a price not to back the Tigers at home with arguably their best pitcher on the mound in rookie Michael Fulmer, who comes in with a 2.77 ERA in 22 starts. On the flip side of this, Baltimore counters with Kevin Gausman, who has been lights out with a 0.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. However, Gausman is a mere 1-9 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 14 road starts this season. He's also got a 4.91 ERA in 4 career starts against the Tigers. Detroit is 13-3 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series and 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning record.
JACK JONES
Seattle Mariners -128
After taking three out of four games from the Texas Rangers last series, the Seattle Mariners have new hope and life. They are still 4.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the American League, but they know a big finish would give them a chance.
Seattle clearly has the edge on the mound tonight over the A's behind Hisashi Iwakuma, who is 14-11 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 28 starts this season. Iwakuma has enjoyed some nice success against the A's, going 8-4 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 13 career starts. He is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA in his last five starts against them.
Daniel Mengden has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. Mengden is 1-6 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 10 starts, 0-5 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.849 WHIP in six home starts, and 0-2 with a 10.21 ERA and 2.431 WHIP in his last three outings.
The Mariners are 7-0 in Iwakuma's last seven starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Seattle is 16-5 in Iwakuma's last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The A's are 1-5 in Mengden's last six starts overall.
JIMMY BOYD
Florida Int +11
I like the value here with the Panthers catching double-digits at home. Had FIU not shot themselves in the foot, they likely would have covered against Indiana last week. The Panthers had 3 turnovers, two of which were interceptions returned for a touchdown and also gave up a safety in a 34-13 loss as a 10-point home dog to Indiana (outscored 22-0 in 4th quarter).
Sure the Terrapins looked good in their opener against Howard, but don’t let that result fool you. Last year Boston College beat Howard 76-0 and went on to go 3-9. Even with that 76-point effort, the Eagles only ended up averaging 17.2 ppg.
Maryland wasn’t a great offensive team last year, scoring just 24.7 ppg. That same offense is being guided by starting quarterback Perry Hills. He only completed 50% of his attempts with 8 touchdowns to 13 interceptions last year. He only threw for 126 yards against Howard. Based on how well the FIU defense played against a much better Indiana offense, I think they can keep the Terrapins in check.
I also think that playing Howard covered up the fact that Maryland likely won’t be great on defense. The Terrapins allowed 34.4 ppg and 421 ypg last season and only have 5 starters back.
It wasn’t a great first game of the season, but FIU does have a talented quarterback. Alex McGough threw for 263 yards against the Hoosiers, but was done in by 3 interceptions. Keep in mind that Indiana had all 4 starters back in the secondary. Maryland only has 1 starter back in their defensive backfield.
Another key factor here is rest. FIU played Indiana last Thursday, while Maryland played on Saturday. The Panthers will have had a full 7 days to prepare, where the Terps only have 5.
This is also a bit of unfamiliar territory for Maryland. It’s just the 10th time since 2006 that they have been a road favorite. The last time was in 2014, where they were a 13-point favorite at USF. A game they only won by 7. It just so happens it came in the 2nd week of the season after a 52-7 blowout win at home against James Madison. I think we could see a very similar type outcome in this one with a decent shot at an outright upset.
DAVE PRICE
New York Yankees -140
Don't look now but the New York Yankees are on the verge of a playoff spot. They have won 5 straight games including four wins over Toronto and Baltimore. I look for them to continue their winning streak tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. Michael Pineda clearly has elite stuff as he has 172 K's in 151 2/3 innings, but his numbers haven't reflected that. Blake Snell got off to a good start for the Rays but has struggled of late with a 4.97 ERA and 1.739 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Rays are 10-43 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 1-5 in Snell's last 6 road starts. The Yankees are 6-2 in the last 8 home meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
FIU +11½ over Maryland
The Terrapins rookie head coach DJ Durkin did what so many veteran coaches do in Week 1 (including his former boss at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh) and that's schedule a 'tune up' game to start the season. The Terps did just that in a 53-13 victory over Howard. We could pour over the game stats but they do not matter here, as any points scored against a team like Howard should barely count. Lost in the big victory was the fact that Maryland was a 50-point favorite and they failed to cover by two touchdowns in a handpicked, cakewalk game. The Terps were 3-9 last season so we guess any win is valuable but that W last week won't mean jack when Maryland faces some real competition. That just might happen tonight, as they travel south to face an FIU squad that's coming off a tough loss at home.
While Maryland was beating up on Howard, Florida International actually played a competitive game against a power-conference school in Indiana. The Golden Panthers failed to capitalize on several offensive opportunities in that game. The 34-13 score flatters the Hoosiers, as FIU actually took a 13-12 lead into the fourth before coming undone. Indiana added a pair of pick sixes that made this score much more lopsided than it actually was. FIU has some positives to build on here in Week 2, including quarterback Alex McCough who went 23-for-26 for 263 yards in the air. He did a good job of spreading the ball around to his big tight end Jonnu Smith and to his freshman receiver Stantley Thomas.
On paper it was just another 21 point loss and an easy Indiana cover but if you watched that game you know how tough FIU was for three quarters of that game. Now they face a Maryland squad that is a clear step down in competition from their Big 10 'mates at Indiana. Hell, if IU played MU last week, the Hoosiers would likely have been a 7-point favorite and now Maryland is the exact same price against FIU that Indiana was last week. That is not correct. This line is a clear overreaction to a big Terps win over a no-name school because their new head coached wanted to guarantee a win in his first game. It’s all fool’s gold, as Durkin got his win but that game did not serve his team well. By contrast, FIU’s loss served them well and knowing that they competed against Indiana has to give them a pretty good feeling coming into this one. We seldom play a game under 13 points that we don’t think can win outright. The Golden Panthers are not going to roll over here. FIU played a very decent and methodical game last week against a dangerous offense and figure to be even more dialed in against a Maryland team that has no business laying this kind of road weight to anybody with a pulse.
SYRACUSE +16 over Louisville
Louisville was a 40-point favorite over Charlotte last week and had that game won and covered by half time or before. The final score read Louisville 70 Charlotte 14 but it may as well read 140-14. That’s Louisville football (and basketball). The Cardinals schedule blowout games. HC Bobby Petrino and his weasel colleague Rick Pitino, work the system like nobody else. As a ranked team that just put up 70 points, Louisville has everybody’s attention heading into Week 2. However, the Cardinals play #3 Florida State next week so this game may be an afterthought. It's not likely to as easy as advertised either.
Entertaining it will be but if you play the Cardinals here, you are spotting inflated road points. What we have here is another ranked team spotting road points to an unranked opponent. That ranked team garnered headlines last week with the beat down they put on Charlotte (big deal) and they also have a potential Heisman winning QB in Lamar Jackson, who experts claim “is the most elusive QB” in the world right now. Playing the chalk to cover in these situations has a low win expectation. So, while we take nothing away from the Cardinals and their dynamite offense, selling the Orange short here may be a mistake because Syracuse can score too.
Syracuse sleepwalked in its 33-7 win over Colgate last week. So, while the Cardinals were gaining over 650 yards in an all-out first half win over Charlotte last week, SU gained 554 yards on 81 plays without breaking a sweat last week. Said Orange Coach Dino Babers after the victory, "That will be the slowest game you ever see us play. Did you see the paint dry? I did. It will never be that slow again." The Orange will utilize their no-huddle offense. They are not coming into this game expecting to lose. Syracuse thinks they can win and that is half the battle.
Remember, Louisville went just 7-5 last year. They played three ranked teams and lost all three. One of those was a 41-21 defeat to Florida State, the team they face next week. Lamar Jackson can scramble while moving like a cat but he was an average QB last year and one game in against Charlotte doesn’t make him a superstar just yet. Syracuse went into Louisville last year and lost 41-17. That game was 10-7 for Syracuse midway through the second quarter. Syracuse held a time of possession edge of 33 minutes to 27 minutes but turnovers at inopportune times did them in. Now the venue switches to Syracuse. For the Orange, this game is huge and for the Cardinals, next week's game is huge. Therefore, we will once again go with the best of it and take the inflated number being offered.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston -1½ +151 over TORONTO
Let’s see if we have this straight. Toronto is 40-28 at home. They will send out Marco Estrada to the mound here, a starter that has MLB’s lowest oppBA over the past two seasons, which includes a better one than Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner. Estrada also has an ERA of 3.15 since the start of last year covering 55 starts, which also includes three post-season starts (2.33 ERA). Despite Toronto’s dominance at home and Estrada’s dominance since last year, Boston is favored here. Why? Imagine, if you can, Clayton Kershaw or Madison Bumgarner a dog at home to Rick Porcello.
Marco Estrada is a dog here because the odds makers know Estrada is a stiff that has been riding a wave of extreme fortune for two years. We have been saying so for two years and now the clock has struck midnight on him. Estrada was demoted to Milwaukee’s pen and subsequently Toronto’s pen before he started getting lucky. Remember, he could not get anyone out for years and NOTHING has changed in his skill set. In fact, his skill set is worse now than it was when Milwaukee wanted nothing to do with him and Toronto wouldn’t let him near the starting rotation before injuries forced their hand. Estrada’s ERA/xERA over his last five starts is 6.58/5.46. His WHIP over that span is 1.65. All season, Estrada has been falling behind hitters and getting away with, 2-1 and 3-1 counts. His 32%/21%/47% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one of the most disturbing profiles in the game. His first-pitch strike rate and the rest of his sub-indicators are also weak.
Estrada’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate in his last start was 8%/38%/54%. Estrada has been tagged for 21 jacks this season but seven in his last five games. Balls hit to the warning track is not a skill. Getting a batter to line-out in the gap is not a skill either. For two years running, Estrada’s high strand rate, low hit rate and low BABIP (all luck driven stats), has done all the heavy lifting. Marco Estrada is no better than Jered Weaver or any other fifth starter in this league. If he pitches a good game tonight, a possibility, it’ll be because luck will be on his side. This is one of the least skillful pitchers in organized ball and that includes the minor leagues. Boston is a small favorite tonight but we’re not interested in Boston winning by a run. We expect a blowout and will play it that way with a much sweeter takeback. Marco Estrada evenly priced against Rick Porcello? Seriously? Get the f**k outta here.
Chip Chirimbes
Louisville at Syracuse
Play: Syracuse
How bad was it last week for over-matched NC Charlotte well, Louisville's sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson had six touchdown passes and two scores running the ball and that was BEFORE the half. Syracuse meanwhile trounced Colgate 33-7 under new head coach Dino Babers who left Bowling Green for the Orange. I expect both clubs to have to play more defense this week and the Orange have the advantage as they return their top seven tacklers from last season. Take the points with the home field advantage.
Dr Bob
Louisville (-14½) 38 SYRACUSE 28
Louisville beat up on a horrible Charlotte team as expected, winning 70-14 as a 38½ point favorite. Cardinals’ quarterback Lamar Jackson picked up where he left off in last year’s bowl win over Texas A&M, as he ran and passed his way into Heisman Trophy candidacy. I rated Louisville higher than most heading into this season but last week’s impressive performance is factored into the line on this game and I think the value lies with Syracuse.
The Orange are an experienced team (8 starters on each side of the ball) with an upgrade at head coach in Dino Babers, who spent the last two seasons as the head coach at Bowling Green. Babers’ offensive system seems to suit the Orange well, as quarterback Eric Dungey completed 34 of 40 passes in last week’s 33-7 win over Colgate. That performance was actually more dominating than the score indicates, as Syracuse had 558 total yards to just 147 total yards for Colgate. Colgate is about 25 points worse than an average FBS team, although they have the same core players that made it to the FCS quarterfinals last season, but Syracuse outplayed them by over 40 points based on the statistics.
Both of these teams were impressive last weekend and my ratings favor Louisville by 13½ points – so the line is about right. The reason for liking Syracuse here is a 130-61-1 ATS revenge situation and a 34-6 ATS big home underdog momentum situation that applies at +14 points or more. I don’t have enough value to make this a Best Bet but I certainly lean with the Orange based on the technical indicators.
Goodfella
SF Giants TT Over 4.5
Arizona sends out Rubby De La Rosa this evening. He's been on the DL since late May with an elbow injury. He will be on a strict pitch count limit for this evening. So, we will see our fair share of that poor Arizona bullpen. Several current Giants have had good success vs De La Rosa (a combined .941 OPS) vs him. I do expect these Giants to get to him eventually at hitter-friendly Chase Stadium. Then we get into that poor Zona pen for the rest of the game. The Giants are most potent vs RH pitching and I do think we see a couple balls leave the yard for SF in this spot tonight. We also have the visiting club here, so we're assured of getting our 9 at-bats. The bottom line for me here, is that I really see these SFG plating at least 5 runs before this game goes final and I'm on their Team Total going OVER 4.5 RUNS in this spot.