Free Picks for Monday, December 12th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
RAVENS AT PATRIOTS
PLAY: UNDER 45
The weather has very little to do with this opinion. While it’s supposed to be pretty nasty during the day in the Boston area, the forecast I’m seeing indicates things should be okay by game time. There might be a bit of a breeze but the inclement conditions should ease by the time the Ravens and Patriots kick off.
My take here is based on the way I think the game plays out, regardless of the conditions. The New England offense is still potent, but the fact is it’s simply not as daunting without Rob Gronkowski. Danny Amendola will also be missing from the lineup tonight.
It’s not like I’m expecting Bill Belichick to turn into Mr. Conservative tonight. The Pats are still going to have Tom Brady throwing the ball on a regular basis, and they’re still plenty dangerous with the football. But the Baltimore defense is solid and comes into this game in good form.
The Ravens offense is not as threatening. That unit did have an outstanding game last week at Miami, but this still an attack that is more plodding than explosive. Joe Flacco will be throwing it on a regular basis as the Ravens don’t have a particularly good running game. But I don’t see this team getting to the end zone on a regular basis and suspect their best weapon will, as usual, be the amazing Justin Tucker.
I can’t call this a strong opinion, as it’s not, but I prefer the Under tonight between the Ravens and Patriots.
Joseph D'Amico
Brooklyn at Houston
Play: Houston -14
Since the return of Patrick Beverly, Houston is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS. The Guards play has helped James Harden, offensively, and the entire squad, defensively. On the flip-side, Brooklyn is turning into the NBA's doormat, sporting an overall, 6-16 record, including 1-9 on the road, a place where the team is being outscored by an average of 12.0 PPG. First year coach, Kenny Atkinson is having problems with consistency as his team is "trying" to adjust to the absence of Jeremy Lin. Defensively, the Nets rank 30th in Points Allowed, 28th in FG%, 29th in RPG, and what will be fatal in this matchup, 27th in 3-pt%. The Rockets are one of the League's top-offensive teams while possessing the #1 squad on the defensive boards. Brooklyn is 2-5-1 ATS their L8 games vs. Western Conference foes, 1-5 ATS their L6 vs. NBA South West foes, and 2-10-1 ATS their L13 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Houston is 13-3 ATS their L16 games played on 1 days rest, 7-0 ATS their L7 vs. teams with a losing SU record, and 16-5 ATS their L21 overall games.
Bob Harvey
Bucks vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -8½
The Bucks (11-11, 10-12 ATS) have been up and down like an elevator. They were enjoying a stretch of five wins in six games - with the lone loss a one-point setback to San Antonio - and looked like a team on the rise before losing games to the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards. The Bucks squandered a 20-point lead in the 114-110 setback at home against the Hawks and gave up an 11-0 run down the stretch at Washington en route to a 110-105 setback.
The Raptors (16-7, 16-6 ATS have been off since Friday, when they erased an eight-point halftime deficit to beat the Boston Celtics 101-94. They’ve won eight of their last nine games, including a 105-99 triumph at Milwaukee on November 25.
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings but 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 meetings in Toronto. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games against the Atlantic Division.
The Raptors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
The OVER is 13-4 in Toronto’s past 17 overall and 7-1 to the OVER in its last eight home games.
Scott Rickenbach
Ravens vs. Patriots
Play: Under 45
This is week 14 (game 13) and the Ravens have stayed under the total in 7 of 8 games the past two seasons in their final 4 games of the year. Even though the precipitation should end prior to kickoff and winds will be light, it certainly will be cold in Foxboro, MA tonight. The Ravens game went over the total last week but that snapped a streak of 5 straight unders and Baltimore has allowed just 15.3 points per game in their last 6 games. The Patriots have stayed under the total in 3 straight games and allowed only 14.7 points per game in those 3 games. The Ravens have had just 6 overs in their last 18 games as an underdog. The Patriots have stayed under the total in 7 of their last 10 games. This one will certainly have a playoff-like atmosphere and I look for a hard-hitting fierce battle rather than an "air it out" type affair. This is especially true with Rob Gronkowski out for the Patriots.
Ben Burns
Boston vs. Montreal
Pick: Boston
It goes without saying that these longtime rivals don't like each other. The Habs have already gotten the better of the Bruins in both meetings this season and come in as the hotter team. They've won two straight while Boston has dropped three in a row. That said, the Bruins don't usually have many extended losing streaks. Playing with "double-revenge" against hated Montreal, they're going to be a little extra motivated this evening.
This marks the third time that the Bruins have dropped three straight this season. On both previous occasions, they stopped the bleeding right there. After losing three in a row in October, they responded with a 1-0 victory over Detroit. After dropping three straight in November, the Bruins answered with a 4-1 victory over Tampa. Including those results, they're 13-8 (+4.7) the past couple of seasons, after losing three or more in a row.
The Bruins are one of the few teams with a better record on the road the past couple of seasons. They've arguably been as good on the road, as they have been at Boston so far this season. Last season, they were much better (25-13-3) on the road than they were at home. Don't be surprised if they score the upset tonight.
Jim Feist
Wizards at Heat
Pick: Over
The Miami Heat look to snap a five game losing streak tonight against the Washington Wizards. The Heat have struggled offensively this season, following the loss of point guard Dwayne Wade to the Chicago Bulls. Miami is ranked 28th in the NBA in scoring (96.8 ppg) and 26th in assists. Meanwhile, Washington looks for its third win in a row tonight. The excellent back court of John Wall (23.6 ppg) and Bradley Beal (21.5 ppg) lead the club. Washington has been a very good over team of late, posting a 10-2 O/U mark on the road in their last 12 games. In addition, the last 10 times these clubs have met the game has gone over eight times and the last four have gone Over in Miami. Miami has struggled offensively, but I look for Washington to put up enough points here to get this one over.
Dr Bob
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
The newly minted most winningest quarterback in NFL history, Touchdown Tom Brady, will face off against one of the top-ranked defensive units in the league. Baltimore is the second-ranked defensive unit allowing only 4.8 yards per play and a 42.0% success rate. Offensively for the Ravens, they are coming off their best performance of the year averaging 56% success rate and 6.9 yards per play in a 38-6 blowout of the Dolphins. The advanced stats model sees value on both the Under and Ravens, so lean to UNDER (45) and Baltimore (+7), both below model thresholds.
Mark Franco
Ravens +7
The New England Patriots did not even have to take the field to seize control of their postseason destiny and they can solidify the front-running status when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. Oakland's loss to Kansas City on Thursday night put the Patriots one-half game up for the No. 1 seed in the AFC entering the final quarter of the season.
New England has won three in a row and can wrap up the AFC East title for an eight consecutive season -- which would be an NFL record -- with a win over Baltimore and a loss by Miami. The Patriots own a deceptive 7-1 regular-season record in the series against the Ravens, who have been a major nemesis for New England and quarterback Tom Brady. Four of the last six meetings (playoffs included) have been decided by four points or fewer and Baltimore owns a pair of postseason victories over the Patriots in Foxborough, Mass. The stakes are equally high for the Ravens, who are tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North but currently hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers.
Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
Jack Jones
Blazers vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -9½
The Los Angeles Clippers have a hatred for the Portland Trail Blazers. They lost to them in the second round of the playoffs last year after taking a 2-0 lead, losing the next four games in a row. But they only lost that series because of injuries, mainly the one to Chris Paul in the middle of it that essentially sealed their fate.
The Clippers have taken out their frustration on the Blazers in the first two meetings this season. They won 114-106 as 2.5-point road favorites, and 111-80 as 11-point home favorites. I think the Clippers will be ready to rub the Blazers' noses in the dirt for a third time this season tonight.
The Blazers have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing to Milwaukee, Memphis and Indiana. Now they will be playing their 4th game in 6 days tonight and their 5th straight road game. The Clippers will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days after beating New Orleans 133-105 at home on Saturday.
The Blazers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes. Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Clippers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Jimmy Boyd
Wizards vs. Heat
Play: Wizards -1
Washington is worth a look here as a small road favorite. Miami continues to deal with injuries and come in having lost 5 straight. The Wizards on the other hand are starting to get things figured out and come in having won two straight. I'll take my chances with Washington keeping it going here, as this is a tough spot for Miami.
The Heat just played 3 straight on the road and have played 6 of their last 7 away from home during a grueling 12-day stretch. I look for them to have a hard time getting up for this game and history agrees. Home teams off 4 or more consecutive losses playing their 5th game in 7 days are just 51-92 (36%) ATS since 1996. At the same time, Home teams off 3 or more consecutive road games in the 1st half of the season are a mere 82-136 (38%) ATS since 1996.
Another big key here is Washington will be out for revenge from a 111-114 home loss to the Heat back on 11/19. The Wizards are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 when revenging a same season loss.
Hank Goldberg
Ravens at Patriots
Play: Ravens
For Monday’s Week 14 NFL game between the Ravens and Patriots, I’m leaning to Baltimore as a road underdog to New England. Baltimore has won two straight and four of five games, the lone loss coming to the red-hot Cowboys and they were in that game. New England is beat up on both sides of the ball and hard to lay points to a team that faces a better defense. I expect a tight game and taking more touchdown is too generous to pass up.
David Banks
Ravens @ Patriots
Pick: Over 45
The Ravens offense lit it up for 500-plus yards in a 38-6 win over Miami last week. Can they do it again? Probably not, but the Baltimore offense is going to need to produce against a stingy New England defense. The Patriots are tied for second in points allowed per game, 17.3. Head coach Bill Belichick’s team won its third in a row since losing to Seattle by a touchdown. The Pats beat the Rams last week without TE Rob Gronkowski who will miss the remainder of the season with a back injury.
As Gronkowski is finished for the season, the Ravens welcomed back their tight end Dennis Pitta last week and the veteran responded with his first two touchdowns of the season. That type of play will have to continue if Baltimore is to have any chance of beating the Patriots. Baltimore (7-5) needs to keep pace with Pittsburgh which is also 7-5.
The Baltimore defense, the one that New England is tied with for second in points allowed, is going to have to find a way to slow down the Pats offense. The Ravens have only beaten the Patriots three times in their existence and two of those wins came in the postseason. Baltimore has never won a regular season game in Foxborough. New England’s LeGarrette Blount will likely be a factor on Monday night. The seven-year veteran is closing in on 1,000 yards for the season. Blount has rushed for 957 yards and 13 touchdowns so far this season.
Dave Price
Lakers +8.5
The Sacramento Kings shouldn't be laying 8.5 points to anyone right now. They are just 1-5 in their last 6 games overall and are in a tough spot here. They have played 6 of their last 7 games on the road, including an 84-104 loss in Utah on Saturday. The Lakers come in undervalued after going 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. But they were dealing with a ton of injuries during that stretch, and 4 of those losses came by 6 points or less. Now they are basically fully healthy as both De'Angelo Russell and Nick Young returned to the lineup in their last game. The Lakers are hungry for a victory here to end this skid, and they may just get it, but they certainly should cover this 8.5-point spread either way.
Brett Atkins
Monday comp play release is the Ravens and Patriots to hold Under the total.
Going to not let last January's 35-31 playoff win by the Pats that went Over the total cloud my judgement in regards to tonight's total which I do like to hold Under in Foxborough.
The Ravens did light it up for 38 points last week against Miami in an Over, but had held Under in their previous 4 games, and are 4-7-1 Under the total for the season.
New England has held Under the total in each of their last 3 games, and Tom Brady is a little gimpy with a knee injury, while Rob Gronkowski is out, and Danny Amendola is slowed with an ankle sprain.
The Pats will need to lean on their defense tonight, and their 8-4 Under mark for the year also suggests that looking Low is the way to go tonight.
Ravens-Patriots Under the total.
5* BALTIMORE-NEW ENGLAND UNDER