Eric Schroeder
My free winner is on the South Carolina Gamecocks, plus the short number against the Seton Hall Pirates.
I originally looked at this game as a premium play, but backed off a bit when I realized a key component would be missing from the South Carolina's lineup. I still think the Gamecocks are a play, but limit them to being a freebie without Sindarius Thornwell.
Justin McKie will start instead, while Thornwell serves an indefinite suspension. South Carolina announced the suspension roughly one hour before the Gamecocks improved to 8-0 with a 70-54 win over Florida International.
He's a major player in the SEC, as evidenced by him earning the conference's Player of the Week honors before being suspended, after averaging 18.5 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals in wins over Michigan and Syracuse. He is USC’s leading scorer at 18.7 points per game, and averages 6.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists, and that won't be easy to replace.
But there's more to this team than scoring, as its defense is very stingy, allowing an average of 55.5 points per game. Since their 85-76 win in the season-opener against Louisiana Tech, the Gamecocks haven't allowed 70 points to a team. In their last seven wins they've given up an average of 52.5 points.
I'm taking a shot here with Frank Martin's squad, as I'm banking on its defensive prowess.
5* SOUTH CAROLINA
Brad Wilton
Comp play winner for Monday is the Bucks plus the points at the Raptors.
Milwaukee was on a 5-1 straight up run heading into last weekend, and then they blew a 20-point halftime lead at home to Atlanta on Friday in a loss, and then followed with a Saturday loss at Washington!
The Bucks numbers against the Raptors don't look too good either, as Toronto has won 5 straight, and 9 of the last 10 in this series.
The Raptors play this game having won 8 of their last 9 games both straight up and against the spread, so I can understand why the line is where it is for tonight's meeting. Still, I will take the generous points with the Bucks who are 8-3-1 against the spread their last dozen stops in Canada.
Toronto extends their straight up winning ways, but this one goes to Milwaukee against the spread.
2* MILWAUKEE
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 15-7 run with free picks, as I jump into the NBA for Monday's free pick.
A collision of Eastern Conference hopefuls takes place tonight in Toronto, where the Raptors host the Milwaukee Bucks, and my money is on the home team.
Toronto has been playing fantastic basketball in the second half, and that's going to be the difference, as the Raptors will be able to pull away for the cover late in this one.
The Raptors are on a nice run right now, having won eight their last nine games, their only loss coming at the hands of defending NBA champion Cleveland. They've also covered 9 of 10 against Eastern Conference foes and 7 of 8 at home.
The Bucks, meanwhile, are in after late-game collapses in back-to-back losses to Atlanta and Washignton on Friday and Saturday, respectively. And it doesn't exactly boost morale for a team that was ahead in those games, but ended up losing, and now have to play at the one team poised to challenge the Cavaliers for the conference title.
I know the road team has covered four in a row in this series, but the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS run, while the Bucks have failed to cover 9 of 12 on the highway.
Lay the home chalk.
4* RAPTORS
Bob Valentino
My free play is in the NBA, where I'm taking a look at two high-scoring teams that happen to be rivals, and will entertain the crowd at Staples Center with an uptempo shootout.
The Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers are both players in the Pacific Division sweepstakes, unfortunately along with the two-time defending Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors. But that doesn't stop either from playing competitively as two of the best in the conference - especially when the face one another.
Three of the last four meetings have gone high, something both teams have done often this season. Portland is 17-8 over in its 25 games, while the Clippers have eclipsed the number in 15 of their 24 contests.
Both had the night off after high-scoring games on Saturday - the Blazers were involved in a 229-point game with the Pacers, while the Clippers and Pelicans put up 238 - and should be ready for another fast-paced game.
This one soars.
3* Clippers/Trail Blazers Over
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ENGLAND -6 over Baltimore
We’re going to stick to our guns and not get involved in Patriots games because they are usually overpriced yet they still cover often. The Patriots come to games focused, well-prepped and rarely will they make the mistakes we see over and over from other teams. If we had to make a bet on this game, we would have to take New England but not just for the reasons mentioned above. You see, the Patriots were a 7½-point favorite yesterday morning so if you waited until today to bet Baltimore, you would be “going with the worst of it”. That window of opportunity to take better than a converted TD has closed. We always stress to not wager on bad numbers and again, if you bet Baltimore here, you are playing into market inefficiencies that will almost always hurt your bankroll.
There are other moving parts too. For one, Baltimore is coming off their best game of the year in a whitewash over the Dolphins. Joe Flacco was the top fantasy quarterback last week when he threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns despite only totaling 11 touchdowns over his first 11 games. Betting Baltimore here may work out but the more likely scenario is that it won’t, as the time to back the Ravens was last week against the Fish. Baltimore is hot with four wins in five games and that means its stock is high, which is another reason to back off them here. Lastly, you are likely going to read, hear or remember all about the Patriots struggles with the Ravens over the years. Since 2010, these two have played seven times with Baltimore winning outright three times and losing by four or less three other times. In other words, New England has won by more than the points offered here just once over the past seven games. That, too, will influence bettors but don’t follow suit because it’s useless information. A game that happened in 2010 (or 2011 or 2012, etc.) has zero impact on the outcome of this one.
What we’ll focus on is that Baltimore was on the brink of disaster five weeks ago after losing 24-16 to the Jets to run their losing streak to four games. The Ravens seven wins have come against Buffalo, Cleveland (twice), Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Miami. The Ravens only road victory occurred in Cleveland in Week 2 in a game they trailed 20-0 before a blocked convert that made the score 20-2 changed everything. Over his last four road games, Joe Flacco has thrown for one TD combined.
The last time we saw the Patriots in prime time, they were taken to school by the Seahawks. That was four weeks ago. Since, then, the Patriots have played three dregs in San Francisco, the Jets and the Rams. New England won all three but none were eye-opening or impressive. All three were moderate wins against garbage teams. It is not often that we can say the Patriots stock is low and it might not be low here but it’s safe to say that their stock is lower than usual. What we saw in prime time from New England against Seattle was not the Patriots way of doing things. Receivers blocking, linemen hustling and every player paying attention to details are examples of the Patriots way that we didn’t see the last time they played an important game against a quality opponent. Don’t expect to see that tonight. The Patriots are not likely to put forth a poor effort in back-to-back prime time games. They are the class of the NFL in preparation, coaching, execution and winning football games and that is liely the team we’ll see tonight. The Ravens were in the Patriots’ class years ago but today they are not. If the Ravens cover here, of course it wouldn’t surprise but we can’t recommend playing the Ravens at a bad price and we especially can’t recommend playing them at a bad price on the road, where they have a five-point win over the Brownies and that is it. Recommendation: New England -6 (no bets).
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +8½ over TORONTO
The defending Atlantic Division champs have already beaten this outfit on the road earlier this season in Milwaukee by six points. Toronto has now defeated Milwaukee in five consecutive meetings. Additionally, the Raptors have won their last two while Milwaukee has come up on the losing end in its previous two. The Raptors could easily have the best pair of guards in the Eastern Conference and they are on a short-list for overall league rankings perhaps just behind Steph Curry and Klay Thompson a.k.a “The Splash Brothers” of Golden State. Finally and perhaps maybe most significantly, the Raptors are known for a unique home court advantage indigenous to a place known none other as The Great White North, the defacto nickname for the Air Canada Centre. When you combine all of the above, it would appear that the Bucks are easy pickin’s for Kyle Lowry and company. That may be, but what all of the above has created is an inflated price and that’s when we like to step in.
There may not be a player in the league as versatile and impactful as “The Greek Freak”, Giannis Antetokuonmpo currently is. Antetokuonmpo has not only put up insane numbers across the board in every statistical category imaginable, he has led Milwaukee’s defense to be the best in lowering opponent field goal percentages while also posting the second best three-point defense in the NBA. Furthermore, Milwaukee’s last three losses were by a combined total of 10 points. This is an outfit that dominated Cleveland and Portland in some of their most recent home affairs and even against Toronto, they only lost by just six points. Milwaukee has the strategy to put itself in the equation in virtually any game they play. The catalyst of the Raptors is their duo of guards and if Milwaukee upsets their rhythm or their shooting operations, the contest undoubtedly favors the Bucks. There was a reason why we were so keen to step in on Milwaukee when they hosted the road undefeated Spurs recently. While the Bucks fell by just a point to the Spurs, they were able to hold a team that currently averages 40% from behind the three-point line to just 28%. What bolsters this achievement even more is that the Spurs are a team that seems to be consistently undaunted and obsessed with fundamentals. Yet, the Bucks found a way to disrupt their bread and butter approach. This team continues to improve but the market is not adjusting and that makes us buyers once again.
Harry Bondi
Baltimore / New England Under 45
The Patriots have the reputation as having one of the best offenses in the league and a suspect defense, which would make one think they are an “over” team, but the stats say they have gone under in eight of their 12 games this season, and in five of their last eight meetings with the Ravens. Tom Brady’s knee is not 100% and he is without his favorite target in TE Rob Gronkowski, so look for the Pats to protect their franchise QB and use a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount out of the backfield tonight. As for the Ravens, they have gone under in 10 of their last 16 games when listed as the underdog and the under has also cashed in seven of their 11 games overall this season. And although they exploded for 38 points last week against Miami, that snapped a 16-game streak dating back to last season in which they had scored 28 points or less, and during that same run they scored less than 20 points 10 times! Go under.
Dave Essler
S.Carolina / Seton Hall Over 133
Most people will be (and are this morning) on the under, giving us a better number. Clearly they're factoring in the loss of Thornwell to suspension. He's traveling to the game and participating in everything except the game, so a total statement move by Martin. I get that the 'Cocks offense could suffer. They DO have other scorers, but what strikes me more is the loss of Thornwell's defense. Without getting into stats - he's a good a defensive player as a scorer. Seton has plenty of scorers and will push this pace, and SC will have little choice, sooner or later, but to follow. My only concern is Setons' FT shooting, which has sucked. But, before they're trip to Hawaii and playing Cal on the way back, they'd been much, much better - so I do think they regress to the mean tonight. Both teams protect the ball well and neither is prone to getting shots blocked - so I think we get our opportunities here. On paper and according to the market this should be a close game, so the potential for late free throws is clearly there. For the Hall, an experience PG and a FR shooting guard who can flat out shoot. More minutes for Felder at PG for the 'Cocks (Freshman) but he hasn't been turning the ball over and he had a fair amount of minutes last game to get a bit more acclimated. If PJ Dozier can thrown in 15 points, this one might be easier than I think - but I don't bet the farm(s) on anything.
Bruce Marshall
Wizards / Heat Over 207
Literally and figuratively, no "D" these days in Washington, though John Wall seems an odd spokesman for this Wizard deficiency with his rant following recent 124-116 home loss to Magic. Wall (who might want to look in mirror) does have a point, as Washington had allowed 107 or more in four straight thru that loss to Magic. Even Miami notched a season-high 114 points in win at Verizon Center on Nov. 19 when Heat hit 51% from floor. But Miami just 3-7 vs. line at American Airlnes Arena to date, so no percentage backing Heat. Wizards' "over" pattern (10-4 last 14) looks like a better recommendation.
OC Dooley
Clippers -10
The key to this wager has to do with the SCHEDULE for both sides. Portland is in the midst of a five-game road trip where the team has already blown FOURTH QUARTER leads twice, including during the weekend where the offense was held to just 13 points in the entire final quarter. It was back in late November (11/23 to be exact) the Clippers embarked on a long and basically dismal 6-game journey on the highway. Following tonight's game in front of their fans the Clippers will have to play 3 in a row on the "road" with all tilts in the eastern time zone. After losing consecutive homes games it was back on Saturday when the Clippers finally broke through in a 133-105 rout when star Chris Paul (20 points and 20 assists along with "zero" turnovers) had a HISTORICAL performance. The total for this late night affair is high (219) and for the entire season to date when in a tilt with a spot of 210+ points Portland (5-14 ATS) has been a "bet against"