Free Picks for Monday, December 19th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Dr Bob
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Redskins
The big story from the game will be cover man Josh Norman lining up to play his former team. The Panthers pass defense has fallen to the 16th ranked unit after ranking third last year as the secondary now starts a pair of rookies after losing key starters, including Norman this season. This is all great news for contract-year QB Kirk Cousins. Not that Captain ‘you like that’ Kirk needs help earning a new paycheck, as he has been incredible this year, averaging 7.8 NYPP and ranking 2nd amongst QBs through 14 weeks. In aggregate, the Redskins arguably have the best offense in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play. While they have averaged 25.4 points per game, their run-rate scoring average should actually be 3 points higher based on predictive stats. The advanced stats model shows value on the home favorite and Over, so WASHINGTON (-4.5) and OVER (51) are Strong Opinions.
Jim Feist
Wizards at Pacers
Pick: Pacers
The Wizards look to hit the .500 mark again as they have won three straight games and six of 10. This club is led by their excellent back court of Bradley Beal and John Wall. Beal had 41 points against the Clippers the other night, his second 40+ point output of the season. Indiana, 14-14 on the season, has done most of its damage at home where the club is 10-4. Paul George has heated-up after a slow start to the season. George has averaged 24 points in his last eight games. This is the second of a back-to-back spot for the Wizards, something they are not good at covering. Washington is just 3-10 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back spot in their last 13 tries. Always tough on a team in this situation, but more so when you don't have a deep bench.
DAVE COKIN
CORNELL AT USC
PLAY: USC -21
This should be flat out ugly. USC is off a very lazy effort against Troy on Saturday, and they nearly got upset after being down a pretty big margin in the second half. Nice rally, but the players weren’t celebrating after the game as they knew they got lucky. I would look for a more concerted effort on the defensive end tonight.
Cornell isn’t much of an opponent to begin with, and they’re in a difficult spot after playing in the Wyoming altitude on Saturday. That game was a total blowout, not nearly as close as the 19-point final margin might suggest.
Wyoming was up a ton and went all bench for most of the second half. A couple of end of the bench guys who had basically not played at all ended up with 21 minutes each. If the Cowboys had left the starteers in, they could have won by 40+.
I think the Big Red are in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Probably loads of garbage time here as well, but this is a likely obliteration and I’ll spot the lumber with USC.
Larry Wallace
Wizards vs. Pacers
Play: Wizards +6
Washington is 12th in the NBA in scoring this year. They are 9th in the league in field goal percentage. Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Indiana is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against NBA Southeast.
Ben Burns
Anaheim at Toronto
Play: Toronto -120
The Leafs favored over the Ducks? The last time that the Ducks played here, they were laying -190. The Leafs won that 3/24/16 game though and, given the home/road stats of both clubs, they're arguably favored for good reason this evening.
The Ducks are 10-5 (10-5-1) at home but just 6-11 (6-11-4) on the road. The Leafs, on the other hand, are 3-11 (3-11-5) on the road but 9-7 (9-7-2) here at Toronto. The Leafs outscore teams by an average 3.2 to 2.8 score here at Toronto. The Ducks get outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.5 away from Anaheim.
Both teams had last night off. The Leafs beat a red hot Pens team on Saturday though, while the Ducks lost 6-4 at Detroit. Also, with Anaheim 0-3 the last three times that it played the front end of b2b games, note that the Leafs have the next two days off while the Ducks will play at Montreal tomorrow night.
Scott Rickenbach
Nashville at Philadelphia
Play: Nashville +105
Tough spot for the Flyers. I know they are off of a loss that ended a 10-game losing streak and so many will be looking to back them here. However, Philadelphia has a HUGE game on deck with Washington. Remember that it was Alexander Ovechkin and the Capitals that knocked Philly out of the playoffs last spring in a series where the Flyers gave them a spirited battle all the way through. It is simply impossible for Philadelphia to not at least be "peeking" ahead to that match-up with the division rival Caps. They also are likely catching the Predators at the wrong time. Nashville is not happy about the fact that they have lost back to back games and 6 of their last 8. What strengthens this situation as a good spot for a play on the Preds is that, though they struggled badly in October, Nashville has not lost 3 straight games since that opening month of the season. Look for them to "bear down hard" here at Philly as they look to "get right" on this quick two game road trip to the northeast. The Flyers have lost 29 of 48 when they are off of a loss by 2 goals or more in their prior game. The Predators have won 27 of 41 after scoring 1 goal or less in their prior game.
Jimmy Boyd
Timberwolves -5½
Minnesota comes into this one having covered 3 straight, but only won one of those outright, which I think has them undervalued here. The two losses came against the Warriors by 8 and Rockets by just 2. This is a talented young team that has not played up to their potential and I think are starting to turn the corner. They have had leads in a number of their losses and could easily be sitting closer to .500 instead of their actual record of 7-19.
The Suns were expected to be better, but are simply not that good. They are just 5-14 in their last 19 and just 4-11 on the road. Phoenix was no match for these Timberwolves in their first meeting this season, as Minnesota beat them on their home floor 98-85.
Phoenix is also just 16-30 ATS in their last 46 when playing against a team with a losing record and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference.
David Banks
Carolina @ Washington
Pick: Over 50.5
With a win over Philadelphia last week, the Washington Redskins kept themselves alive in the NFC playoff race. At 7-5-1, the Redskins are still behind the 8-4 New York Giants in the NFC East, but remain very much alive in the hopes of reaching the postseason. Next up is a visit from Carolina, a 28-16 winner over San Diego last week.
The Panthers season hasn’t turned out as planned after reaching the Super Bowl last year. Carolina started the season 1-5 thanks, in large part, to a defense that just fell apart. Head coach Ron Rivera’s defense gave up 40-plus points two times in the first six games of the season. That is something that just doesn’t happen in Carolina. The Panthers have rebounded slightly but only remain in the playoff picture because of mathematics.
Washington, which won the NFC East a year ago, now faces another must-win game. The ‘Skins cannot afford a loss as the Giants, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Green Bay all are right in the thick of the wild card race. Quarterback Kirk Cousins leads the NFL’s second-best passing offense with 3,811 yards passing and 21 touchdowns. In the win over the Eagles, Cousins was a very efficient 14-of-21 for 234 yards and two touchdowns. He will face a Carolina pass defense that is one of the league’s worst. The Panthers give up 276.8 passing yards per game, 31st out of 32 teams in the NFL.
Don’t count out the Carolina defense though as they did play arguably their best game of the season last week. In the victory over the Chargers, Carolina forced five turnovers by San Diego QB Philip Rivers. The Panthers also sacked Rivers five times and recorded a safety. Keep in mind, though, that Carolina has won just one game on the road this year and that was against Los Angeles which was 4-8 before last Sunday.
Wunderdog
Detroit @ Chicago
Pick: Detroit +3
It has been a rough start for both the Detroit Pistons and the Chicago Bulls. Each were a playoff team a year ago, but neither has resembled a playoff caliber team to start this season. The Bulls have really struggled of late at 2-6 in their last eight games, and they have played well below the line at 1-7 ATS. The Pistons are a game below .500, but have actually played better than the record would indicate as they are out-scoring opponents by 2.0 points per game on the season. Going back to last season, the Pistons seem to have the Bulls' number as they have taken four of the last five games from their division rival.
Bruce Marshall
E. Michigan / Syracuse Over 142
Teacher vs. pupil, as EMU HC Rob Murphy is a onetime Jim Boeheim aide (seven years) who has been trying to do an Orange imitation (down to cloning the Boeheim zone) in Ypsilanti since taking the Eagles' job five years ago. The recurring shooting woes of the 'Cuse might prove an issue for Boeheim, whose own defense will be tested by Murphy's uptempo offense, tallying 87 or more in its last four games, with explosive outside (Gs Ray Lee & Willie Mangum IV combining for nearly 37 ppg) & inside (6-10 James Thompson IV 16 ppg) scoring options.
Brett Atkins
Monday's comp play is Over in the Carolina-Washington game.
There is not much to think about with this one, as Carolina is 5-1 Over the total this season on the road. Washington is on a 6 game Over run, and have played Overs in 11 of 13 for the year. Dating back to last year, the Redskins are on a 16-2 Over run their last 18 games contested.
Throw in last year's November meeting between these two teams, a game that ended up in favor of Carolina, 44-16, and you can see why I think looking for points is a good way to go tonight at FedEx Field.
The Panthers have just pride left to play for after making it all the way to the Super Bowl last season, while the Redskins are contending for a postseason spot this January. That being the case, look for the offenses to fire their shots, and the points to add up.
Carolina-Washington Over the total.
3* CAROLINA-WASHINGTON OVER
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play is the Under in the Hawks-Thunder contest.
Already the second of two season series meetings between these East/West rivals, and the first in Atlanta on December 5th held Under the total. That puts the series at 3 straight and 6 of the past 8 overall Under the posted price.
The Hawks just played an Under against Charlotte on Saturday, while the Thunder are also coming off an Under on Saturday in their meeting with Phoenix to make it 7 in a row Under for Oklahoma City.
OKC is on an overall 9-1 Under clip their last 10 games contested.
I say stick with the dominant Under numbers, and go Low in Oklahoma City on Monday night.
3* ATLANTA-OKLAHOMA CITY UNDER
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Under in the Atlanta Hawks-Oklahoma City Thunder battle at Chesapeake Energy Arena.
While everyone continues to clamor about Russell Westbrook's triple-double, he's ready to talk about winning games. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 16-11 on the year, and sure that's a good record, but until the balance comes full circle, they're going to be a mediocre squad.
Tonight the Atlanta Hawks (13-14) will help the Thunder spread the court, as they'll look to move to .500 on the season by using a stringent defense, isolating on Westbrook as best as possible.
The Hawks have stayed under in 16 of their 27 games, while the Thunder have stayed low in 17 of their 27 games.
Play this one low.
5* Hawks/Thunder Under
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is on the Detroit Pistons, as I think they could win outright in Chi-town, against the struggling Chicago Bulls at the United Center.
The Bulls have lost three in a row since knocking off the Miami Heat in Dwyane Wade's first appearance against his former employer. And it started with a collapse against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Dec. 13, in a game the Bulls led by 19 at one point, then lost by 5.
Chicago dropped a back-to-back, home-and-home series to the Milwaukee Bucks and now face a feisty Pistons team that is looking to snap a two-game skid.
Detroit (14-15) has covered seven of its last eight in this series, while it's also covered seven of eight against the Bulls (13-13) when playing in Chicago.
Take the road pup.
2* PISTONS