Brandon Lee
USC -21.5
I'm going to lay the big number with USC at home in this one. The Trojans are coming off a sloppy game against Troy, where they squeaked out a 82-77 win as a massive 21-point favorite. I believe that has this line a little lower than it should be, plus it gave USC a big wakeup call that they can't just show up against bad teams. Cornell is an Ivy League team that is simply outclassed here and has shown little in their previous games against quality teams to think they can keep this one close. Last time out they lost by 19 at Wyoming and they also have a 30-point loss at Houston. It's also worth pointing out that this will be Cornell's second road game in just 3 days and 7th true road game in their first 9 games of the season.
Dave Price
Chicago Bulls -2.5
The Chicago Bulls will be hungry for a victory tonight. They have lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 8 overall coming in. Now they have had two days off in between games to get ready for the Pistons after last playing on Friday. I think we get a big effort from the Bulls here tonight. The Pistons are certainly a team you do not want to be backing with your money on the road. They are just 6-10 SU & 6-10 ATS away from home this season. I think because of the Bulls' recent struggles, this price of -2.5 is very short. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
3G-Sports
Detroit vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago -2.5
The Pistons had a mini-meltdown after the last game that resulted in a team meeting in which players discussed Reggie Jackson’s shoot-first tendencies, according to reports. On top of that, Stan Van Gundy is contemplating a lineup change. Both of those things are not good omens for the Pistons. The Bulls, on the other hand, seem to have recovered from a short Rajon Rondo suspension last week and can match up with Andre Drummond very well with their big men.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON -7 over Carolina
The 5-8 Panthers take their 1-5 road record to face the 7-5-1 Redskins who are 4-2 at home. The Panthers won 44-16 when the Redskins visited in Week 11 last year and while it was a long time ago, we distinctly remember it because we had the ‘Skins and recall Cam Newton and his pals whooping it up on the sidelines, doing somersaults, and having a grand ol’ time. Well, if we remember it, we’re pretty sure the Redskins remember it also. Besides, these are two very different teams from 2015. The only road win by the Panthers this year was by a score of 13-10 over the Rams.
The Panthers are playing out their bad season and the final three games are not nearly as easy as it seemed last summer. What 2016 has proven - aside from our personal theory of the annual magic team - is that the schedule is a big component of the season. The Panthers swung from one of the very best schedules in 2015 to one of the worst for 2016. That and don't let your best defenders leave. Big difference. Cam Newton's season winds down with only 10 passing touchdowns over the last 10 games and while he added five rushing scores along the way, his yardage as a runner has been down as well. He's only thrown for two scores once in the last seven games and ended up with fewer than 200 passing yards in three of the last four weeks. On the road, the Panthers have allowed an average of 375 passing yards per game over last five games. That includes Case Keenum with 296 yards as the worst.
If the playoffs started today, the Redskins would be the last Wild Card team. In other words, they control their own fate so winning out means playoffs for sure. The ‘Skins play the Bears next week and end the year at home against the Giants, which are two winnable games. First things first, however. The only danger here for Washington is that the players will be too jacked up. Josh Norman is doing a lot of trash talking, which is foolish because no good can come from it. The only thing it does is fire up the opposition and the Panthers are not a team you want to fire up. There is simply no need to address Newton by saying things like, “Madea wants her outfit back and she’s not happy”. Still, the Redskins offensive line has done an excellent job protecting Kirk Cousins this season. Cousins’ has been sacked on just 3.6 percent of his drop-backs, which is third lowest in the NFL. That simply does not bode well for a Carolina defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards overall. If in-game variance doesn’t work against the host and all things are equal, a superior Washington team should roll over the Panthers.
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +105 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Nashville is a rock-solid outfit that is rarely on our slate simply because we have a really hard time backing them when Pekka Rinne is in goal. Analytics wise, the Preds are a monster that ranks highly in every single key category that includes puck possession numbers, shots against per game, shot attempts at their own net, shots directed at the opposition’s net, face-offs in the opposition’s end and the list goes on and on. Nashville is a top-5 team in most analytic categories but Pekka Rinne prevents them from thriving and running off 15 wins in 20 games. Rinne’s back-up is the vastly superior option but he played on Saturday and will not likely get the start here. That said, we can’t worry about Rinne’s play here. We’ll trust the Preds to take it to the Flyers and hope for the best.
This is strictly a high percentage angle that does not come up often but when it does and a price is offered, we must try to take advantage. The angle is to fade teams that snap a prolonged winning streak and it applies here. Whenever there is a long streak, it takes on a life of its own and that was certainly the case when the Flyers were going for their 11th straight victory in Dallas on Saturday. Suddenly, a team on such a hot streak becomes the league’s center of attention. The player’s intensity levels rise in an attempt to keep it going. Once that streak is broken, there is an exhale of sorts and it is very difficult to bring that same intensity level in the game right afterward. Think of it as getting eliminated in the playoffs and then having to play another game two days later. The intensity level is just not there and that is what makes this play such a high percentage one.
TORONTO -1½ +228 over Anaheim
OT included. Ducks’ Coach Randy Carlyle has openly stated that this game has more meaning than many others. You see, Carlyle was run out of Toronto when he was fired in his fourth year here after missing the playoffs in two years and being knocked out of the playoffs in the first round in his other compete year. He was fired halfway through the season in his final year back in the ’14-’15 season. There are some players still remaining on the Leafs that played for Carlyle, which include Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner, Tyler Bozak, Morgan Rielly and James van Riemsdyk. Carlyle was constantly throwing players, especially Kadri, under the bus in an attempt to shift blame.
When Lou Lamoriello came on board and watched Kadri play, here’s what the GM had to say about him, “I love the way he competes. I’ve seen him get hit at different times, and he just comes right back. He’s not afraid to give it, but what you respect the most about him is that he can take it. He’s not a retaliatory type of player, but he’ll get you at the right time, and the right place…He’s one that I wouldn’t mind going into a foxhole with." Mike Babcock had kind words for Kadri too. Nazem Kadri is thriving this year. He’s playing great hockey both offensively and defensively and that is the difference between good coaching and management and poor.
Anaheim is coming off a 4-3 win over Boston followed by a 6-4 loss in Detroit. In that win over Boston, it was against Anton Khodubin and not Tuukka Rask and the Ducks got absolutely dominated in the third period that it looked like they were killing a 20-minute penalty. They were also the third team to lose to Detroit in regulation over Detroit’s last 24 games. Prior to that, Anaheim lost in Dallas, 6-2. The Ducks will play their fourth straight on the road but more than that is they look like a team in trouble right now and perhaps they’re going to stop responding to Carlyle too. The Ducks are a .500 hockey team. Their defensive system is unstructured and error prone. The goaltending with John Gibson and ex-Leaf Jonathan Bernier has been weak and unstable. Carlyle knows how badly Bernier wants to play tonight but has refused to name his starter. The Ducks play tomorrow too so Gibson and Bernier will each play one game but Carlyle won’t say which of the two starts here. That’s how he operates. Little by little and player by player, Carlyle will once again tear apart a team that was good and we might be seeing those signs now. He gets in his own way and there are a bunch of Maple Leafs that would love to stick it to him here.
Toronto is on the verge of an offensive explosion and we are not going to miss it when it happens if we can help it. Against Pittsburgh on Saturday night, Toronto fired away 49 shots on goal and if not for some morbid bad fortune, they would have scored five or more. That bad fortune (posts, crossbars, deflections, missed open nets, etc) has been going on all year for Toronto but no team has dominated the opposition lately like the Maple Leafs have. In five of their last seven games against Pittsburgh, Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado and Vancouver, the Leafs amassed 49, 46, 52, 37 and 40 shots on net and scored nine goals in those five games. The closest margin any of those teams came within Toronto in shots on net was 16. That’s about 1½ periods of work on average. It’s not just those teams either. The Maple Leafs have been dominating all year long. It is a rare game when they are not taking it to the opposition and with a victory over Pittsburgh in their last game that rewarded their hard work, it may have opened the floodgates to bigger and better things. The Maple Leafs are not rebuilding, they have arrived and we suggest to bet them as often as possible before their stock goes through the roof. There is a risk in spotting 1½-goals but the reward outweighs it.
Edmonton +118 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. We’re going to continue our attack on the Blues for a number of reasons and it starts in goal, where Jake Allen has a weak save percentage of .902 while backup Carter Hutton’s save percentage is worse at .889. Weak goaltending greatly increases your chances of losing. Next we have current form. The Blue Notes have two regulation wins over their last eight games. Both victories occurred against the reeling Devils and in its last game versus New Jersey, St. Louis trailed 2-0. The last time the Blues won by more than two goals without scoring an empty netter, was way back on November 19th, which was 15 games ago. Thus, every game since then, the Blues have either lost, won in OT or won by one goal. That’s how close this host has been to losing 15 straight games.
In the world of hockey analytics, the dominant theory has been that a team's record in one-goal games is almost entirely unpredictable. This was first established by Gabriel Desjardins of Hockey Prospectus after the 2008-09 season. He ran a regression analysis on every team's data from 1979-80 through 2013 and found that the season-to-season correlation of a team's record in one-goal games was nonexistent. The 2014 and 2015 seasons yielded largely the same results. Essentially, the ability to win close games comes and goes, which absolutely proves that random, lucky bounces have more to do with it than skill. After all, if some teams have an actual talent in this department, then why does it suddenly disappear? In January of 2015, the Ducks were on a 28-4 run in one one-goal games. Since then and including this year, the Ducks winning percentage in one-goal games is .438. Winning by a goal is nothing but pure luck and with weak goaltending, the Blue Notes luck has already started to run out.
The Blues have scored fewer goals than Edmonton while allowing more goals. In fact, only nine teams in the entire league have allowed more goals against per game than the Blue Notes. The only area that the Blue Notes are thriving in is the penalty kill, where they rank second in the league. However, they also take more penalties than most and certainly more than the Oilers. The Blue Notes come in with a 17-11-4 record and have 38 points in 32 games. They were a target of ours before the season started but they were winning a lot of games so we backed off. We started attacking them recently and we’re not backing off when they’re favored. The Blues are showing the signs of losing their leader David Backes and not replacing him. Backes was the Captain, he played 20 minutes a night, he killed penalties, he played the PP and he played with grit and some nastiness too. As he played, so did the Blues and now he’s in Boston. It’s no coincidence that the B’s are doing well this year when expectations were low. Edmonton is the superior team with better goaltending and we get a tag to boot.
Larry Ness
Phoenix VS. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The 6–19 Phoenix Suns make the second stop of a two-game road trip tonight in Minnesota against the 7-19 Timberwolves. Phoenix enters Monday's matchup having lost two straight and six of its last eight. The Suns dropped a road game Saturday at Oklahoma City 114-101. Minnesota hasn’t won back-to-back games all season but looked like they were about to back up a win at Chicago earlier in the week with a win Saturday night at home vs the Rockets, when they led Houston by 12 points with under three minutes lefts. However, a collapse led to a 111-109 overtime setback "I'd lie if I said I didn't think we were going to win," Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns told reporters. "I think we're going to win when we step in the building. But especially when you're up by 12 with three minutes left. So we all felt good about our chances."
The Minnesota Timberwolves have suffered some tough losses already this year but none might have been harder to stomach than their late-game collapse on Saturday night. It was a game the Timberwolves had in their grasp but instead turned it into their 19th loss of the year. "That was unacceptable. We shouldn't have lost that game," guard Zach LaVine said after Minnesota's collapse at Target Center. "We can't just let that happen. We played too good of a game to let that slip through our fingers." The loss overshadowed a big night for second-year center Karl-Anthony Towns, who put together his second 40-point game of the season. Towns had 41 points and 15 rebounds. Towns (22.1 & 11.0) plus Wiggins (21.9 & 4.3) and LaVine (20.7) give Minnesota three, 20-point scorers. This team SHOULDN’T be 7-19!
As for the Suns, their 6-29 record seems about right. Guards Bledsoe (19.7-5.5-5.4) and Booker (18.8 ) join SF Warren (16.6 & 4.1) as the core of the team but Phoenix is a long way from being a postseason contender. That’s NOT the case with the T-wolves, who I believe will get things straightened out with an outstanding head coach in Tom Thibodeau. Phoenix and Minnesota have the second- and third-worst records in the Western Conference, respectively but the T-wolves are really, the much better team. Lay it with Minnesota.
Cal Sports
Stanford at Southern Methodist
Play: Stanford +7.5
The Sanford Cardinal travel to face the SMU Mustangs in the second game of a home and home series. Last season SMU traveled to Stanford and came away with an 85-70 win as a 5.5 point road favorite.
Stanford is currently 7-3 having faced the #49 schedule but they have lost to the top 3 teams they have faced and beating the others. The Cardinal losses came versus Miami, Fl at a neutral court, home versus St Mary’s and at Kansas. Stanford did cover their only other true road game when they were +18 in their trip to Allen Fieldhouse in an 89-74 defeat. The Cardinal are a very deep team with nine players averaging over 12 minutes/game but only a pair of them average over 7 points/game. Reid Travis is Mister double-double scoring 18.3 PPG with 9.8 rebounds/game while Dorian Pickens adds 12.8 PPG.
SMU has faced the #164 schedule and stands at 8-3. The Mustangs 3 losses have all come away from home versus Michigan (neutral) and on the road against USC and BYU. The Mustangs are 7-0 SU when playing in front of their faithful but only 4 of those games were lined with SMU going 3-1 ATS. SMU has 7 players averaging over 14 minutes/game but their starters all play over 26 minutes/game led by Semi Ojeleye (17.5 PPG and 7.4 reb/gm) and Ben Moore (12 PPG and 7.7 reb/gm).
During the second half of December you want to remember that most of these student athletes spent last week studying for finals and this week the students are on break. You can find some unique scheduling edges because of this and do not forget to adjust the home court edge for venues with strong student sections. In this match-up I believe there is value with Stanford as both teams slow the pace with the Cardinal averaging 70.7 possessions/gm which ranks #248 of the 351 teams while SMU only averages 67 possessions/game which ranks #340. Expect a game with the teams both in the 60’s and we’ll call for Stanford to cover the point spread.
Bob Balfe
Redskins -7
The Panthers will not get a chance at revenge this year in the super bowl and won’t even get to the playoffs. This is a Panthers team that is now on their 2nd string right tackle, 3rd string center and 3rd string right tackle. The most overlooked positions are on the offensive and defensive fronts. Carolina has amazing skilled players, but they are good for nothing if you don’t have the time to get them the football. Washington is in a playoff fight and should take advantage of a Panthers Defense that is awful in the back end and will be without Charles Johnson tonight. The Panthers also might be without MLB Luke Kuechly. In fact, it would be foolish to play him with nothing to play for. One more head injury could be his last game. Cam Newton is a quitter when things don’t go his way. If he wouldn’t dive for a football in the Super Bowl with the game on the line what makes you think he cares about tonight’s game? Kurt Cousins has evolved into the best deep ball passer in the NFL. Who would have ever thought?
Jim Feist
Panthers at Redskins
Play: Over
How much difference one season can make. The Panthers, last year's Super Bowl participant, will not even make the playoffs this season. Meanwhile, Washington's 7-5-1 record still has them in the hunt for a wild card slot. In fact, with the Dallas win on Sunday, the Redskins now control their own fate. If they can win out, they will make the post season. QB Kirk Cousins has quietly led his team to the 2nd best passing offense in the NFL (302.8 pyg). Tonight though, I'm looking at the OVER. Washington has been an excellent over bet, going OVER in the last six games. Not only do the Redskins have that potent passing attack, but they are also balanced with a 109.6 rushing attack per game, making them the top offensive yardage team in the NFL. Carolina's defense has been very good against the run (3rd), but has struggled against the pass (21st). The Redskins have gone over in 20 of their last 26 games overall and 8-0 O/U in their last eight home games. I look for lots of points here tonight.
Ben Burns
Arizona +1.5
With the Flames listed as mid-sized favorites on the money-line, we're able to get the Coyotes at a "relatively" (relative to the value and normal cost of the extra +1.5 goals) reasonable price. While I like the Coyotes chances of winning outright, in what could well be a close one, that extra +1.5 goals may come in handy. Note that the Flames have won both this season's meetings by a single goal, each game finishing with a 2-1 score. Overall, while the Coyotes average 2.5 gpg here at Phoenix, the Flames are averaging just 2.1 goals per game on the road. That makes winning by more than 1.5 kind of difficult. Expect AT LEAST a cover from the revenge-minded Coyotes.
Harry Bondi
CAROLINA +7 over Washington
We are more fundamental than trend handicappers but one of the most amazing trends is that Washington is 1-13 ATS at home on Monday Night Football! Skins fade under the bright lights of Monday night and while the Panthers season has been a disappointment we expect them to play with pride tonight. Cam & company get under the number easily tonight.
Alex Smith
Detroit at Carolina
Play: Detroit +135
Two Eastern Conference clubs hook-up down in Raleigh tonight as the Detroit Red Wings travel to face the Hurricanes of Carolina. Detroit heads to the road for 6 of their next 7 games, which should bring a welcome change after the club went 1-4 on their recent 5-game home stand. Detroit's offense had been stagnant as of late until their six-goal outburst in Saturday's win over Anaheim, led by a hat trick from winger Thomas Tatar. Captain Henrik Zetterberg was held to just one point during the home stand and defenseman Mike Green, who leads Wings blue-liners with 18 points, is questionable for this contest after suffering a lower body injury last game.
The Red Wings are 8-3-1 away from the Motor City as they prepare to play a Hurricanes squad that has picked up at least 1 point in 9 consecutive home games, going 8-0-1 during that span at the RBC Center, despite losing 6 of their last 10 games overall. Both clubs have shown some struggles to remain consistent on offense. Outside of an 8-6 win over Vancouver on Dec. 13, Carolina has scored 3 or fewer goals in 15 of their last 16 contests. Canes forward Jeff Skinner paces the offense with 12 goals and 26 points, while young winger Victor Rask has tallied 7 points (1 goal, 6 assists) in his last 5 contests.
Detroit has been strong in this series, winning 7 of their last 10 meetings with the visiting team also going 7-3 within that span. Carolina hasn't done well stringing together wins thus far in the season, while Detroit is looking to continue their trend of good road hockey with a strong effort tonight. Play on the Red Wings as a nice sized road underdog this evening.
Anthony Michael
Panthers +7
Washington is really not playing that well right now. They have lost 2 of their last 3 games SU and they were very fortunate in their win over Philly last week getting hammered in the stats but finding a way to win. Carolina put up a good effort last week in beating San Diego and they will be very motivated being on national TV as the defending conference champions. Carolina has covered their last 4 times as road dogs to Washington and the Redskins don't like Monday night as evidenced by their 1-15 ATS record at home on Mondays.
OC Dooley
Southern Mississippi +14
This is a neutral court game being played in the city of Jackson (in the state of Mississippi) in what is a unique wager as the pair of Division I in-state programs are meeting on the same court for the first time in FIFTEEN YEARS. Actually the last time these pair faced each other in the "regular" season was way back in 1995. While Mississippi State owns a 15-3 run in this "series" the last three times they faced tonight's foe in Jackson (neutral court) Southern Mississippi won outright twice in those 3 tilts