Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, December 26th, 2016

Cal Sports

Maryland at Boston College
Play: Over 43.5

This is the 12th meeting between these schools and first since 2013 when both were members of the ACC. Boston College has an 8-3 edge in the series including wins in each of the last 3 games. Both teams finished this year at 6-6 and neither team beat an opponents that finished with a winning record. Maryland went 3-9 last season and made the change at head coach to DJ Durkin who was the DC at Michigan. The Terrapins last bowl was in 2014 (Foster Farms +14, 45-21 loss to Stanford) while their last post-season win was in 2010 (Military Bowl -7.5, 51-20 vs E Carolina). Boston College also went 3-9 last season and also went to a bowl in 2014 (Pinstripe -3, lost 31-30 in OT vs Penn St). The Eagles have lost 5 straight bowls with their previous win coming in 2007 (Champs Bowl 21-21 versus Michigan St).

Maryland opened the season going 4-0 (2-2 ATS) and they were a double digit favorite in all 4 games. The Terrapins next 4 games were all lined between Maryland -5 and +3.5. They were upset as small favorites at Penn St and versus Minnesota but then pulled a small upset themselves against Michigan St before losing at Indiana. Michigan, Ohio St and Nebraska beat them by a combined 139-13 and the Terps needed a win in their finale versus Rutgers which they got 31-13. Maryland has my #72 offense, #74 defense and #62 special teams. UM played 4 QB’s this season as Perry Hills started and finished only 7 games but in his 162 pass attempts he threw only 3 interceptions (1.8%).

Boston College opened 3-3 (2-3-1 ATS) with losses to Ga Tech, Va Tech and Clemson and wins versus UMass, Wagner and Buffalo. In BC’s last 6 games they upset NC St and Wake Forest while getting upset by Syracuse. The Eagles have my #118 offense, #50 special teams unit but also my #32 defense. They allowed 51 PPG versus Florida St, Louisville, Clemson and VT but allowed 12 PPG in their other eight. On the offensive side of the ball Boston College failed to top 390 yards in any game against a Power-5 opponent and topped 21 points in only one. QB Patrick Towles has a 10-6 ratio but he had a 7-1 ratio versus a weak nonconference schedule and only a 3-5 ratio in ACC action.

I’m going to be a bit of a contrarian here as the Over/under total seems too low despite having two offensively challenged teams. Maryland had only two games lined in the 40’s all year and while Boston College went UNDER their last two games with O/U totals of 36 and 35 points weather was an issue and that won’t be the case in the Dome. Both teams needed to win their finale to get here so the pressure is off and I expect to see new wrinkles from both offenses.

Randall the Handle

Lions (9-5) at Cowboys (12-2)

Difficult to rate this one as there could be some motivational factors involved here, namely for the Cowboys. Should the Giants lose to the Eagles (last night’s result not available at press time), Dallas would have the No. 1 seed locked up in the NFC and the ’Boys would have nothing to play for. Detroit needs to win as they could end up playing the Packers next week for the NFC North, but even if Lions came out on short end of that one, a wild-card placing remains as a possible consolation. No matter the scenario here, a full touchdown is too many points to be spotting a competitive Detroit squad. Dallas is not covering these days either with four straight failures. TAKING: LIONS +7

DAVE COKIN

LIONS AT COWBOYS
PLAY: LIONS +7

There’s just no reason to elaborate in ample fashion to make myself sound impressive. I made this bet as soon as the Giants lost to the Eagles and managed to grab 7.5 with the Lions.That’s already gone as I’m writing this, bit +7 is still readily available.

The loss by the Giants means the final two regular season games for Dallas are meaningless. The Cowboys have now earned home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

I don’t know whether Dallas will rest their starters or not in these final two weeks. If it were up to me, I’d do exactly that to at least some extent. No knocks at all on Zeke and Das, but they are each rookies and that means they’ve already played more football this season than at any previous time. I know there’s the argument about losing momentum, but there’s just nothing on the line in Weeks 16 and 17 for Dallas. Plus, they really haven’t been as sharp these last few weeks as they were prior to that.

The Lions need wins, as they’re in a dogfight for their division title and/or a potential wild card. Must win certainly doesn’t mean will win. But I’m enthused about snaring a TD against a team that has already accomplished a major goal and is now waiting to get the playoffs underway. Lions plus the points.

Sleepyj

Bucks / Wizards Over 213.5

Both teams have played each twice so far and both games have gone over this posted total...Last game out the Bucks really handed it to the Wizards with a big 20+ point win....Wizards get them back at home now and Washington hasn't been the greatest defensive team for some time now...Wizards rank 26th in the league on defense and the Bucks rank 11th....I don't believe the Bucks are really the 11th ranked defensive team...They have 3 games on the schedule that really affect that number...Most notable lopsided defensive effort cam against the Bulls a few games back...Chicago only managed 69 points in that game...Bucks have given up triple digits or scored triple digits in 19 of the last 24 games...Wizards are in the same boat....John wall should have the Wizards running at a frantic pace, but the Wizards will struggle to stop one of the best players in the league in Antetokounmpo....He has torched the Wizards scoring wise for 28 and 39 in the seasons two games...I'll play the over small here.

Jack Jones

Washington Wizards -4.5

This is a home-and-home situation where these teams just played on Friday in Milwaukee. The Bucks crushed the Wizards 123-96 as 3-point favorites, and now we'll back the team that lost the first game in the rematch at home this time around.

Clearly the Wizards are going to be the more motivated team here with revenge in mind. And that was a rare poor performance from them of late as they've gone 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. They were starting to figure things out, but had a small blip on the radar in that loss to the Bucks.

I think the Wizards get right back on track at home, where they are 10-6 SU & 9-7 ATS on the season, scoring 107.4 points per game on average. Milwaukee is just 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS on the road, scoring just 96.8 points per game away from home. And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Milwaukee is 7-22 ATS after playing a game as a favorite over the last two seasons. Washington is 21-9 ATS revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. The Bucks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Mike Anthony

Maryland vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College +2

Quick Lane Bowl - Monday, 12.26.2016 Boston College DE, Harold Landry, makes plays that not everyone can make. He can attck the QB and he is as good as anyone with his pressure, with 15 sacks on the season. Landry is a pretty special player, who will be an awful lot ot try and contain. The special teams play of Boston College is going to be the biggest key here. Maryland have allowed 4.9 YDs/ carry on the ground and 140 or more on the ground 10 times in 12 games. Maryland had run into a really tough stretch during the last 3 of their 4 games, this is a very tough game, not enough steam here vs the Eagles. Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Boston College wins this Bowl game on Monday afternoon.

Ben Burns

Milwaukee vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

The home team has won and covered both meetings this season. The Bucks won big at Milwaukee, the most recent meeting. Earlier, the Wizards eked out a cover in the game here at Washington. Including that result, they're 4-1 SU/ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range and 10-6 at home overall. The Bucks, on the other hand, are just 2-3 SU/ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range, 4-7 on the road overall. With the Wizards also 11-6 ATS the last 17 times that they faced a team which defeated them in their previous meeting, consider laying the small number.

Wunderdog

Maryland vs. Boston College
Pick: Boston College +2.5

There is one key point in this game. Maryland has scored big vs. poor defensive teams. Maryland's schedule included six games vs. FBS series teams that each gave up 24 points per game or more, and the Terrapins averaged 36 ppg. They also played five games vs. teams that allowed fewer than 24 ppg and they averaged 6.2 ppg. That is a huge difference. Boston College has a very good defense, but was not good vs. strong offensive teams. The Eagles allowed 50.5 ppg to Virginia Tech, Louisville,Clemson, and Florida State. They allowed 13.3 ppg in all other games. The picture here is Maryland was 0-5 vs. good defenses, and 6-1 vs. poor ones. The Eagles were 0-4 vs. elite offenses, but 6-2 otherwise. It looks pretty clear that BC has the edge.

Jim Feist

Indiana at Chicago
Pick: Indiana

Both of these Eastern Conference clubs right about the same spot in the standings. The Pacers are 15-16 and have lost two straight, while the Bulls are 14-16 and have lost three straight and 10 of their last 13. The Bulls in a tougher spot here today, having had to play yesterday at San Antonio. Chicago has the 23rd ranked scoring offense, averaging 101.0 ppg. The Pacers had the Christmas break off, so they are fully rested. And when rested, they are 20-6-2 ATS their last 28 games with three days or more off. Bulls have not been so good to bettors, going 1-7 ATS the last eight, 1-4 in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs the Pacers. Tough spot here for the Bulls, I'm taking the rested Pacers.

Scott Rickenbach

Milwaukee vs Washington
Play: Washington -4½

The Bucks blasted the Wizards in Milwaukee on Friday. That was the 5th straight time in this series that the home team has won and all 5 victories have come by 5 points or more. That said, I certainly see value here in laying the short number at home with Washington as they get a chance at "right back revenge" as these teams match-up again now for the 2nd time in 4 days. The Wizards had covered 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 before getting destroyed in Wisconsin Friday. Washington is 11-6 ATS this season when playing with revenge. The Bucks had failed to cover 5 of their last 7 games before coming up with the easy cover versus the Wizards Friday. Milwaukee has gone 4-7 SU and ATS on the road this season and also the Bucks, even with that cover versus Washington, have gone only 2-6 ATS versus Southeast Division opponents this season. The value is with the revenging home team that is laying a short number here.

Jimmy Boyd

Pistons -6

This was going to be a tough spot for the Cavs to show up as it was, but it's pretty clear with this line that books have got word that Cleveland will likely sit their stars in this one. I don't think we are going to see James or Irving for sure. Without those two the Cavs really have no shot at being competitive here.

Anytime a team like Cleveland sits their stars, you have to be concerned with their opponent just showing up thinking this is going to be a walk in the park. I'm confident that the Pistons won't take that approach. Detroit desperately needs a win here, as they come in having lost 5 straight, which has them sitting 11th in the east.

The Pistons also likely haven't forgot about an ugly 23-point loss (81-104) at Cleveland back in November and Detroit is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 at home when revenging a loss of 10 or more and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 at home when revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less.

SPORTS WAGERS

Boston College +110 over Maryland

This Boxing Day duel certainly does not feature a bout of heavyweights. However, for those who have followed our posts, we have been keen on targeting this Maryland team on several occasions this season and we’re not about to let up now in a somewhat evenly priced game against the superior team. In other words, the wrong side is favored here.

Maryland began their season at 4-0 and many analysts sung the praises of Terps Head Coach D.J Durkin. Some have called him one of the young brilliant minds in all of the game and a football genius while we insisted it was all smoke and mirrors. The goal for the Terps was to get to a Bowl game because they were a program that was falling off the map. Durkin and the institution subsequently scheduled games against the easiest competition they could find, thus the 4-0 start.

The list of wins by Maryland was against Howard, FIU, Purdue and an overtime win at UCF, who was on the path to recovery after going winless in 2015. The Terps would round off their docket of victories against an atypical Michigan State team at home and Rutgers who was the laughing stock of the Big Ten in 2016. Against any form of proficient competition, the Terps looked terrible. They were routed by Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska and were overvalued convincingly in all of them. After getting trounced by Penn State, the Terps were favored at home the very next week against Minnesota and got rolled again, this time 31-10. Maryland failed to beat an FBS team with a winning record this year and now they’re favored again?

As a 16½-point road dog at N.C. State, Boston College won outright by seven. They would then lose to ranked teams Louisville and Florida State before winning their last two games by a combined score of 44-14. We can reasonably assume that Boston College comes into this one with a distinct competitive edge. The Eagles opened as a slight favorite but the Terrapins have captivated this market because they have put up points while B.C’s offense has struggled. Offense sells and now the line has shifted to make the Terps a favorite but it’s not warranted. Boston College has played some damn tough competition and comes in with the 12th-ranked defense in the country. Those B.C. defensive numbers are not skewed while Maryland’s offensive numbers are completely skewed. The Terps don’t do anything well, and are quite simply a bad football team that is getting far too much credit here. The Eagles should be favored and therefore we’ll play them to win outright. Last week we called Idaho, a 15-point pooch one of the better bets of the Bowl season and they won outright. This one is in that same category.

Vanderbilt +5½ over N.C. State

What we have here is yet another scenario of two teams entering with the same record but far contrasting bodies of work. The Wolfpack and the Commodores both enter at 6-6 but Vanderbilt assuredly has the more impressive resume. Vanderbilt is a much improved football team compared to the usual kick-around novelty SEC teams are accustomed to beating up on. Derek Mason has this team going in the right direction and his strategy for reorienting the Commodores program has been anchored in his team’s robust defense. There is no other way to describe Vandy’s defense other than it is one of the best in the business. This is a defense that can shut down the run and curtail some otherwise dynamic offenses. The Commodores own wins at Western Kentucky and Georgia this year. The Hilltoppers need no introductions when it comes to offensive proficiencies. WKU’s offense was on full display in the Boca Raton Bowl when they put up 51 against Memphis. The Hilltoppers won the Conference USA for the second year in a row and they won 11 games this season. However, even with WKU taking a lead against Vanderbilt by two touchdowns, the Commodores didn’t hit the panic button, they simply clawed their way back into the game and took Western Kentucky to overtime. Then the Vanderbilt defense helped them pick up with the win. Against Georgia, Vanderbilt shut down the Bulldogs’ rushing attack led by one of the best duos of running backs in all of America in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Additionally, this is a team that beat Tennessee and Mississippi soundly. Finally, Vanderbilt’s flast four losses were settled by margins of nine points or less. This list comprises of Missouri, Auburn on the road, Florida and Kentucky on the road. Both Florida and Auburn were hovering around the top-10 at the time of these fixtures and Kentucky is a team that is going bowling as well while capping off their season with a win against Louisville.

N.C State’s best win this season was their domination of Old Dominion in September in Raleigh. State may have some close losses against Florida State and Clemson and that is something worth looking at for sure but their wins came against a demoralized North Carolina, a weak Syracuse team, an atypical Notre Dame, Wake Forest and William and Mary to finish off their list of victories. State has some credentials and they also play a tough brand of defense but this is one of those games where both teams have an equal chance of winning. However, when you throw in six points, that equal opportunity is no more and shifts the edge to Vandy getting the money.

Harry Bondi

Vanderbilt / NC State Under 45.5

NC State has been a dead nuts under team going under in its last five games and seven of its last eight and we see no reason why that will change here today. Vandy has a run-oriented offense and will be facing the Wolfpack’s stout run defense while the Commodores will counter with a scoring defense that ranks No. 28 overall in the country. Vandy has also gone under the total in 23 of its last 34 games overall the last three years, including a 7-19 run to the under when listed as the underdog.

David Banks

Detroit vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas -6.5

The Lions slipped up last week losing 17-6 to the Giants and face a must-win against the best of the NFC, Dallas. If Detroit loses to the Cowboys and Green Bay beats the Vikings, it would set up an NFC North winner-take-all showdown between the Lions and Packers in the season’s final week.

The Lions offense is one of the league’s best, but their struggles running the football caught up with them last week. Detroit manages just 81.7 yards per game and the team’s leading rusher, Theo Riddick, has just 357 yards…for the season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is having one of his best seasons with 3,720 passing yards and 22 TDs against just eight interceptions. He will have to have a big deal back in his home state of Texas if the Lions are going to pull this one out.

Dallas rebounded from its loss to the Giants with another fourth-quarter comeback win this time over Tampa Bay. Trailing 20-17 entering the final quarter, Dallas produced three Dan Bailey field goals to claim their 12th win of the season. Rookies Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott continue to shine. Elliott rushed for 159 yards to increase his NFL-best total to 1,559. Prescott completed 32-of-36 passes for 279 yards and once again did not throw an interception.

The Lions do not do well away from their Ford Field home. While 6-1 at home, Detroit is just 3-4 when playing on the road this season.