Vegas Butcher
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5
The Bucks’ last game was a 123-96 domination over the Wizards. Now Washington is priced like a ‘better’ team here which is just silly. Just way too much value on Milwaukee.
Atlanta Hawks +2
On a b2b and 3in4 spot, this Wolves team will be in a much worse physical shape here than Atlanta which had 2-days off. Even without Howard, the Hawks should have plenty of weapons to compete here. I like their chances of avenging their last week’s loss to Minnesota.
Brandon Lee
Grizzlies -2
I really like the value here with Memphis laying a small number here on the road against the Magic. The Grizzlies have responded nicely to a 3-game losing skid, having won their last two in impressive fashion, taking down the Pistons 98-86 on the road and coming back 2 days later and beating the Rockets 115-109 at home. Memphis comes in at 20-12 with a solid 8-5 clip on the road while the Magic are just 14-18 with a mere 6-10 record at home. Knowing they have to go to Boston tomorrow, I look for a big effort here from the Grizzlies. Memphis is 4-1 ATS last 5 road games against a team that's won 40% or less of their home games, while Magic are 4-11-1 ATS last 16 after a cover in their last game and just 3-10-1 ATS last 14 at home.
Dave Price
Toronto Raptors -6
The Portland Trail Blazers are an absolute mess right now. They have lost 5 straight and are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Things aren't getting any easier for them tonight as they'll play one of the top teams in the NBA in the Toronto Raptors, who are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Making matters worse for the Blazers tonight is that they are expected to be without their best player in Damian Lillard, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. They are really going to be lost without him because they are weak at the backup PG position. Toronto is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 road games. The Raptors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. The Blazers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit -4.5
The Cleveland Cavs are off their biggest game, and win, yesterday afternoon at home vs. Golden State. They trailed by seven at the end of three quarters and came out flat to start the 4th, where a 7-0 Golden State run bumped the lead to 14. The Cavs came back and won on a spectacular three-point shot by Kyrie Irving. The Cavs spent a lot of energy in that game, and I would not be surprised if LeBron, and a few key Cavs are absent for this game, or are in diminished roles. Detroit has lost five straight, and this might be just what they need, facing Cleveland at home with a lot of questionable stamina and emotional issues after turning around in 24 hours and taking to the road.
Bruce Marshall
Atlanta at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
Atlanta looking for revenge after letting Minny dictate matters last Wednesday at Philips Arena, when T-wolves bumped and grinded to a 92-84 win. Not sure Hawks get payback, however, as Minny finally played defense the way Tom Thibodeau likes in that game, holding Hawks to 41.5% shooting, while dominating glass by 52-35 count. It was also the fifth spread cover in a row for T-wolves and fourth "under" in that five-game stretch, suggesting the troops really are starting to pay heed to Tibs. With or without Dwight Howard (who has missed recent games due to back ailment), Atlanta continues to look less than harmonious on the floor, reflected in 5-13 SU mark last 18 thru Dec. 22.
Brad Wilton
Thanks to the Giants Thursday loss at Philadelphia, Dallas has clinched the #1 seed in the NFC. So with a little less "urgency" expected from the Cowboys, I will grab the points with the "urgent" Lions who have not yet secured a spot in the playoff party.
The Lions have played them close pretty much all season, and they have covered 5 of their 8 tries this year when listed as the underdog.
As for the Cowboys, cannot argue their 12-2 straight up ledger, but it has been a different tale of late against the line, as Dallas has now failed 4 straight times - all of them listed as the favorite.
Since Dallas is sitting pretty at # 1, will go against the Cowboys as the home favorite.
Take Detroit plus the points.
3* DETROIT
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 22-12 run with free picks, as my complimentary winner is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points against the Detroit Pistons.
With very little time to celebrate before getting back to business, I don't think we're going to see too much of a letdown. There's no time to think about yesterday's thrilling 109-108 victory over Golden State. The Cavaliers have won five straight, and it might be easy to say they could come in emotionally and physically exhausted, but I think there is too much experience with this team.
To my understanding, coach Tyronn Lue will decide if LeBron James and Kyrie Irving will sit, but I don't think this is an issue. Not today. There are games to be won, and this Detroit team is a division rival. There is no reason to sit.
Sure, James played 40 minutes while scoring 31 points and grabbing 13 rebounds, and Irving played 44 minutes, contributing 25 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, but these are the best of the best. And they need to rebound and be able to play back-to-back. If anything, this is the right test.
And, the Cavaliers (23-6) might be motivated, and ride in after last night's win.
They can't afford to let down against last-place Pistons (14-18), who have lost five straight after losing to the Warriors, 119-113, on Friday.
Detroit was swept by Cleveland in the opening round of the playoffs last season and has lost five consecutive at home against the Cavaliers. Cleveland dominated the Pistons in their first meeting this season, 104-81.
I like the Cavs tonight.
2* CAVALIERS
Bob Valentino
My free play for Monday is on the Charlotte Hornets against one of the worst teams in the NBA, record-wise, as the Brooklyn Nets are tied with the Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record in the league.
This should be a no-brainer for Charlotte (17-13), which is 14-5 against opposition at or under .500.
And if Charlotte can win its next three games, it will take an impressive 20-13 mark into its second meeting with the Cleveland Cavaliers, this Saturday, the Hornets' final game of 2016.
The Hornets have won their last three games following a four-game losing streak.
Charlotte registered a comeback-win on Nov. 4 in Brooklyn, when the Hornets faced a 13-point deficit roughly seven minutes into the game and again with about four minutes left in the second quarter, yet found the mettle to pull out a 99-95 victory.
The Nets are 3-17 since Nov. 12, with eleven of those games being double-digit defeats.
Charlotte brings a five-game winning streak over the Nets into this one, while it is unbeaten in its last four trips to Brooklyn.
Lay the road chalk.
1* HORNETS
Eric Schroeder
The Indiana Pacers are a little listless right now, having lost back-to-back games to fall one game below .500, and they're in serious jeopardy of a three-game losing streak in having to face the Bulls in Chicago the night after Christmas.
Though Paul George is the star, and there is plenty of talent and chemistry to be had, he recently said the teamm's "identity is inconsistency." Ouch! Not exactly a positive remark for a team that is supposed to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Eastern Conference title.
And while Chicago has'nt shown consistency yet either, and have lost three straight games and six of the past seven to drop to a season-worst two games below .500, I like it to emerge in this one, as it's the right spot to score a momentous win.
The Bulls will be hungry for a win after yesterday's 119-100 loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
I'll take the home team here.
3* BULLS
King Creole
Nuggets / Clippers Under 211
We'll be Going LOW tonight in La-La Land as the the UNDER-manned (pun intended) Clippers host the Denver Nuggets at 10:35pm ET. Sharp OU players are probably already aware that this is a historically low-scoring series. The UNDER has gone 7-19 O/U in the last 26 meetings between the NUGGETS and CLIPPERS… including 1-7 O/U in the last three seasons. Average OU line: 213.4… Average combined points scored: only 202.0. That's an average margin of MORE Than 10 full points per game (-11.4 to be exact). And in the last 28 meetings IN Los Angeles, the series has gone 8-20 O/U. Add into the mix that the host Clippers will once again not be 'playing with a full deck', and our choice is clear. Already OUT for tonight's game will be Blake Griffin. And head coach Doc Rivers just announced that All-Star point guard Chris Paul will ALSO not be playing tonight. Even guard J.J. Redick might be out too. He scored 22 points in three quarters last night before leaving with a sore left hamstring. With all those key injuries, it's no wonder that the Nuggets have been installed as slight road FAVORITES in this game.
So let's run a first database query in regards to tonight's rest situation. The host Clippers just played last night (lost to the Lakers)… while the visiting Nuggets last played on Friday (2 days of rest)…
11-29-3 O/U last 2 seasons: All HOME teams (Clippers) in a '0/2' rest situation (NO rest vs 2 days rest). These games have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U when the OU line is in the range of 205 to 222 points.
Mondays have been a pretty LOW-scoring Day of the Week thus far in non-division games….
5-20-1 O/U since early November: All MONDAY non-division games (Nuggets @ Clippers) when the OU line is 211 or less points.
Los Angeles has a record of 22-10 SU on the season (.687)… but has lost two games in a row… 2-10 O/U last 2 years: All .667 or better NBA teams off back-to-back SU losses in a row (Clippers) when the OU line is 211 1 point in a '2/0' REST situation.
OC Dooley
Pistons -4
With Detroit cast as a prohibitive home favorite it is obvious that Cleveland is resting their impact players one day removed from a thrilling one point win against mighty Golden State on Christmas. The underdog outright win by the Cavaliers yesterday was significant in that defending NBA champions had gone 6-9 SU/4-10 ATS on the Christmas holiday dating to 1999 (also 2-6 SU when facing a quality opponent with at least a .700 win percentage) due to over-pricing issues which was not the case with LeBron and company yesterday. As earlier stated Cleveland (riding a current 9-2 ATS tear) is "getting" points tonight even though having won 5 consecutive trips to Detroit and also sweeping the Pistons in the opening round of last year's playoffs. One can argue Detroit needed a holiday break as they have gone 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in the most recent five outings. In a three-year trend that may come as a shock to some when off 3 consecutive "spot" wins Cleveland in ROAD setups like tonight (1-11 ATS) have been a disaster to investors