Free Picks for Monday, December 5th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
BOISE STATE AT LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
PLAY: LOYOLA MARYMOUNT-1
Varying lines on this game, with Boise a one-point favorite at one sore I have access to, Loyola as high as -2 at a couple of spots and some pick ’em as well. I decided to go with -1 as that seemed like the fairest current price.
The early money has been on the Lions, and I’ll go along with that line of thinking. The scheduling clearly favors Loyola. The Lions have had plenty of time to grind through practices and should be eager to get back on the court and actually play a basketball game. T
he Boise State players could be a bit frayed this evening. The Broncos played a marquee opponent on the road at Oregon last Monday. Then they returned home for a big game, which they won against SMU. The team then flew to Evansville for a Saturday battle that resulted in a loss. Now they’re heading back to the west coast for this game at Loyola Marymount. That’s a bunch of travel and I think it’s fair to offer that the Lions are probably the least exciting opponent among this quartet.
The spot therefore favors the home team, and I don’t mind the Lions from a matchup standpoint either. They’re going to likely try and make this a physical battle, and that is not Boise’s game. If the Broncos are indeed a bit weary at this point, they’re likely in trouble here.
Hopefully, the Lions spent some of the time off working on their abysmal free throw shooting. If they leave the uncontested points off the scoreboard tonight, they might well end up losing the game. But I also find it hard to believe the team will continue to brick as many tosses as they have so far, so I’m not putting too much weight on that. I’ll know after the game if that was a mistake. Put me down for an opinion on Loyola Marymount tonight.
Rocketman
Memphis @ New Orleans
Play: New Orleans -4
The Memphis Grizzlies travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans on Monday night. Memphis is 13-8 SU overall this year while New Orleans comes in with a 7-14 SU overall record this season. Memphis is 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS last 3 years as a road underdog of 4 to 9 points. Memphis is scoring only 84.5 points per game in division games this year. Memphis is allowing 101.6 points per game on the road this year and 105 points per game their past 5 games overall. New Orleans is scoring 102 points per game overall this year and 108.8 points per game at home this season. New Orleans is 21-10 SU at home last 31 games vs Memphis. Anthony Davis is probably here tonight. We'll recommend a small play on New Orleans tonight!
Rob Vinciletti
Blazers vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls -5½
The Bulls will look to rebound off the blowout loss in Dallas and they have covered 5 of 6 vs winning teams and are 5-1 ats vs non conference teams. The Blazers have failed to cover 7 of 8 as a dog and 6 of 7 vs winning teams. Rested road teams like Portland fail to cover over 80% long term if they covered the spread at home and are taking on a team like the Bulls that come in off a 21+ point spread loss as a road favorite and scored 90 or less like the Bulls.
Art Aronson
Panthers vs. Bruins
Play: Bruins -140
Boston has started to turn things around of late, having earned points in its last four contests. Florida gets caught looking ahead here with the first game of a back-to-back set. The Panthers mustered just 24 shots in a 2-0 loss to the Sens on Saturday. Goaltender Roberto Luongo has been good this year with a 2.04 GAA, but note that he’s just 1-3-1 in his last five against Boston. The Bruins most recently beat the Sabres 2-1 on Saturday. Goaltender Tuukka Rask is 13-4-1 with a 1.60 GAA on the year. Note that he’s an even better 16-3-1 with a 1.48 GAA lieftime against Florida. All things considered, we think the home side offers pretty good value in this matchup.
Ben Burns
Connecticut vs. Syracuse
Play: Connecticut +9
The Huskies have gotten off to an ugly start this season, with inexcusable losses to the likes of Wagner and Northeastern. They did eke out a 2-point win last time out, giving them some positive momentum. While Syracuse certainly represents a major step up in class, I believe that the Huskies are capable of upping their game and giving the Orange a challenge. Needless to say, a game against their former Big East rival, at MSG, is a big deal.
These teams played a close one against each other last season. Syracuse ultimately prevailed, 79-76. Speaking of close games, the Huskies have seen ALL seven of their games decided by 10 points or less. Meanwhile, Syracuse only beat the North Florida Ospreys by six points last game, nearly blowing a 24-point lead, after losing its previous two.
While the Orange are 4-11 ATS their last 15 as a "neutral" court favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range, the Huskies are 11-3 ATS (13-1 SU) the last 14 times that they played a "neutral" court game with an O/U line in the 120s. All things considered, this line is generously high. In what could be another close one, consider taking the points with UConn.
Ricky Tran
Hornets vs. Mavs
Play: Hornets -4
Let Down Spot: Dallas is coming off a 107-82 rout of the Bulls on Saturday. The Mavs are still just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and should struggle with Charlotte which is 5-3 straight up on the road and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Motivational: The Hornets have dropped two of their last three and coughed up a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter in a 125-120 overtime setback against Minnesota on Saturday. The team needs to get back on track quick.
Injuries: Dallas has plenty of injuries and being without players like Dirk Nowitzki takes its toll on the whole team, physically and mentally.
Larry Ness
San Antonio vs. Milwaukee
Pick: San Antonio
It’s no surprise to anyone that the Spurs come in playing well with 11 wins in their last 12 but the Bucks have also won their last four, with one of those victories being a 118-101 ‘spanking’ of the defending champion Cavs on Nov 29! The Spurs are 16-4 overall, including a perfect 11-0 on the road, while the Bucks’ winning streak has them at a modest 10-8.
San Antonio shocked the Warriors 129-100 in the teams’ season-opener but a little more than a month later, the only team with a better record than the Spurs is the Warriors, who check in at 17-3. The Spurs have had some issues on the offensive end of the court this season, as they enter averaging only 103.0 PPG to rank 19th. However, the team ranks fourth in point allowed, at 98.2 per game. The Bucks are scoring at about the same rate as the Spurs (Milwaukee averages 103.7 PPG to rank 17) but while the Bucks are allowing a few more points than San Antonio at 101.8 PPG (10th), it’s hard to argue with the team's No. 1 ranking in both opponents’ FG percentage (42.7%) and three-point percentage (31.6%).
Each team owns two standout players, Kawhi Leonard (24.3-6.0) and LaMarcus Aldridge (18.6-5.9) for the Spurs and Giannis Antetokounmpo (22.4-8.6-6.1) and Jabari Parker (18.6-5.9) for the Bucks. However, the Spurs own more talent and depth everywhere else and San Antonio hasn’t reached 11-0 SU (7-3-1 ATS) on the road with mirrors. The Spurs are the bet.
Jim Feist
Hornets at Mavs
Pick: Under
Dallas is having trouble scoring and a fine Charlotte defense is in town. The Under is 5-2 in Hornets last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Dallas is on a 3-0-1 run under the total, 6-1-1 under at home, and the Under is 10-4 in the Mavericks last 14 games following a straight up win. And the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
David Banks
Indianapolis at New York
Pick: Over 48.5
The Indianapolis Colts head into Monday night’s contest with the Jets facing a must-win. Head coach Chuck Pagano and company need to win to keep pace with the rest of the AFC South. Houston leads the division at 6-5 and Tennessee is a half-game behind at 6-6. Indy (5-6) can still win the division but needs to win the games it should, beat the Texans in two weeks, and hopefully pull an upset of the Raiders on Christmas Eve.
The Colts might have to pull off a win Monday night without starting quarterback Andrew Luck, who missed the Thanksgiving night loss to Pittsburgh. Luck suffered a concussion and missed the game with the Steelers. He is in the final stages of the NFL’s concussion protocol and will be evaluated after he practices on Wednesday. It’s possible that Luck plays on Monday night though if he doesn’t Scott Tolzien is an adequate backup.
The Jets are reeling after another loss Sunday, this one to the Patriots. New York actually led 17-13 in the fourth quarter but gave up a field goal and a Tom Brady touchdown pass to lose 22-17. The loss was the third straight for the Jets, who boast one of the league’s least productive offenses. The Jets average 17.8 points per game, 28th in the 32-team NFL.
The Jets have won the last three meetings between the two teams including last year’s game, a 20-7 win at Lucas Oil Stadium. The last time the two teams played at MetLife Stadium, the Jets grabbed a 35-9 victory. If New York is to have success next Monday night, they are going to need to find a way to run the ball. The Jets managed just 64 yards against the Patriots last week.
Indianapolis is one of the NFL’s poorest defenses. The Colts give up an average of 395 yards per game, 30th in the league. They are 23rd in rush defense yielding 116.3 yards per game on the ground.
Brandon Lee
Cavaliers vs. Raptors
Play: Under 216½
This total is way to high given the situation. Cleveland comes in having lost 3 straight and you know that's not going to sit well with LeBron James. The Cavaliers might not have great defensive numbers overall, but can be an elite defensive team when they want to. I expect to see that effort here, as they try to avoid a 4th straight loss. Toronto is also going to bring the intensity on defense, as they are out for revenge here. The Raptors have already lost twice to Cleveland this season and both have been extremely tough defeats, losing by 3-points at home and 4 on the road. The fact that this is the 3rd meeting already this season, also adds to value on the under, as these two teams are very familiar with what the other is trying to offensively. UNDER is 21-9 in the Cavaliers last 30 as a road dog and 10-1 in their last 11 road games when they come in having failed to cover 4 of their last 5.
Jimmy Boyd
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans -4
I think we are getting some great value here with New Orleans. While the Pelicans will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set after last night's game against the Thunder, they have a clear advantage here against a depleted Memphis team that is without three of their best players in Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons and Zach Randolph. On top of that they are missing a couple of key role players in Vince Carter and James Ennis.
Memphis has been able to overcome these injures in their last two games, but those were at home against a bad Magic team and a Lakers team that was playing their 4th game in 5 nights and missing some key players of their own. I look for those injuries for the Grizzlies to really show up here on the road against a Pelicans team that has been playing much better of late. New Orleans is 7-6 in their last 13 after starting out 0-8 and have won 5 of their last 6 at home, with the only loss coming against the Clippers.
Pelicans are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Jack Jones
Jazz vs. Lakers
Play: Jazz -3
The Utah Jazz are showing good value here as only 3-point road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Jazz come in playing very well as they have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. This is a very short price for them to be laying tonight.
The Lakers have just returned from a four-game road trip that concluded with a 100-103 loss to Memphis on Saturday. They previously lost to the Raptors by 33 and the Pelicans by 17 while beating the Bulls. That first game back home following an extended road trip is always tough. They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here.
Making matters worse for the Lakers is that they are as banged up as they have been all season. D'Angelo Russell and Nick Young remain out, while Larry Nance Jr. is doubtful. Jose Calderon, Russell's replacement in the starting lineup, suffered a hamstring injury recently and is expected to miss this game. Meanwhile, the Jazz just got Rodney Hood back in the lineup last time out from injury.
The Jazz are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Lakers. Plays against home underdogs (LA LAKERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days are 174-112 (60.8%) ATS since 1996. The Jazz are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. JETS +105 over Indianapolis
The Colts never had a chance last week in a 28-7 loss to Pittsburgh and apparently there was a reason that Scott Tolzien spent years on the bench without a start. The loss drops the Colts to only 5-6 but that still means they are only one game out of first place in the AFC South. The Colts have a huge game on deck next week against the Texans but that doesn’t mean they’re going to overlook this one. Rarely do teams’ overlook a prime time game but that doesn’t mean the Colts deserve to be the chalk here. Indy has two road wins this year. The first road win was against a Tennessee team that they just always beat no matter what. The Colts’ other road win came at Green Bay in a 31-26 shootout but upsets happen in the NFL and this happened to be one of them. The Colts were a 7½-point dog at Lambeau, which is more relevant than the score. Here’s a visitor that lost in Jacksonville and Houston and that barely got by the Bears in Indianapolis in Week 5. The Colts are also a team that has been outgained every single week this year but twice. The Colts continue to ask Andrew Luck to do too much and now he can add a concussion to his many other injuries. Luck spent last season with a separated shoulder, a lacerated kidney, a hyperextended beard, four baby hands stuck in his teeth, and a nasty case of trench brain. The Jets are a hard hitting bunch and if Luck goes down, then what? Scott Tolzien isn’t Matt Hasselbeck. He’s actually a male model from the Czech Republic. There is no chance of us endorsing the Colts as road chalk (see San Francisco yesterday).
The Jets are 3-8 and have lost three in a row so their stock is very low but let’s put that aside for a sec. New York’s win total this year was 8. The odds makers figured this was at least a seven-win team and perhaps even a nine-win team. Could the odds makers have been that wrong about the Jets? Actually, they weren’t. New York is a bounce away a game from being 6-5 or even 7-4. Here’s a team that played Seattle and trailed 14-10 at halftime and 17-10 after three. The Jets ended up losing that game by 10. They also played Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Arizona, Baltimore, Miami and New England. When they played the red-hot Dolphins in Week 9, they lost by just four. The Jets defeated Baltimore, 24-16 and came within a hair of defeating the Patriots last week. The Jets are loaded with talented players but the schedule has gotten the best of them and so have the bounces. Battle-tested with perhaps the league’s toughest schedule, the Jets maligned offense gets a big break this week when facing the defenseless Colts. On a Monday night, the Jets also have an opportunity to make life miserable for this playoff hopeful imposter. The Jets are going nowhere this year so call this their Super Bowl and move in hard because they are the better team getting points at home on Monday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +193 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. The Penguins are a deep and talented team that need no introductions whatsoever. Obviously, you don’t need us to tell you how dangerous they are. However, the Pens are coming off a Cup win and have not truly dedicated themselves to hit their peak. The Penguins are on cruise control and probably will be until late February. Pittsburgh needed four, third period goals to defeat the Red Wings on Saturday. That was its first back-to-back victories in a month. We also love the Penguins are headed out to sunny Florida after this one for games in Tampa and Sunrise before returning home for a game against Arizona. Every player on the East Coast looks forward to a trip to Florida and after three straight at home, we're pretty sure the Penguins cannot wait to get on that plane. With no urgency in their game and with a four-day, two-game trip to Florida on deck, this looks like a very decent time to fade the Pens. The price also influences this choice.
Ottawa is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NHL. The Sens are now 15-10 and 4-1 against top-10 competition. Derek Brassard is turning out to be a great acquisition for Ottawa and so has goaltender Mike Condon. What’s so fascinating about Ottawa is that they are having success while shooting a paltry 5.3 percent at even strength. Their 97.2 PDO suggests they may be due better luck as the season continues and one can credit coach Guy Boucher for making this team better with each passing week. Ottawa has great balance and an underrated defense, whose Corsi numbers are steadily improving. The Sens are simply too live and too good to be passing up numbers like this on them and we have to figure that they’ll also be the more motivated team here.