SPORTS WAGERS
CS Northridge +12½ over ST. JOHNS
This line is so inflated that we must take the points and let the chips fall where they may. The Johnnies are coming off a 20-point road win at Tulsa. That was their third win of the season with the other two occurring against Bethune-Cookman and Binghamton. Incidentally, Tulsa is 1-7 and one of the worst teams in the Division I NCAAB. The Johnnies play fast and are not afraid to shoot from anywhere. Coach Chris Mullin played that way when he was a Golden State Warrior at a time when the Warriors routinely put up 130 points a game. At that time when the Warriors played, the totals in their games were routinely in the 245 to 255 range. Since the Johnnies couldn’t win a game last year, Mullin brought in some sharp-shooters to shoot from anywhere and play fast. St. John’s is now 3-5 but so what. They started off 7-3 last year before losing 21 of its final 22 games. This is a Red Storm team that plays no defense. If they go cold from the floor, they’re prone to falling behind by double digits in a flash. They are now playing a team in an underrated conference (The Big West) that can hang with them and even win outright.
You may or may not remember last year’s Big West Champ, Hawaii, knocking off Cal in the first round of last year’s NCAA tournament before giving the Terps a bit of a scare in the second round. Last season, CS Northridge played Hawaii tough not once but twice in a six-point loss and in a nine-point loss on the Island. The year prior, Cal Irvine, another Big West team, nearly upset #4 Louisville in the first round in a two-point loss. Cal Irvine went to the CIT championship game last year. This year, CS Northridge is the most improved team in the Big West. They have already played #16 UCLA, Texas A&M, Stanford and Northern Illinois. CSUN brings back a slew of talented guards and wings in Kendall Smith, Aaron Parks, Michael Warren, Jerron Wilbut, and Jason Richardson. Smith is the best player on the team and also spotlights as the team’s primary ball handler (though Parks and Richardson are both capable point guards as well). Coach Reggie Theus has a comical amount of depth at his disposal on the wing and in the backcourt and adds some solid replacements for the departed frontcourt. This is a deep and experienced team that will get out and run and throw a ton of bodies at their opponents all game long. What’s so interesting here is that the Matadors will try and beat the Johnnies at their own game. However, we like that the Matadors take it to the rim and attempt high quality shots while the Johnnies will shoot from the perimeter. These crazy Matadors will really test the inexperience of the Johnnies too with high pressure on the ball carriers, which figure to result in a slew of turnovers. CS Northridge has the ability to come in well under the number and hang with this host but they also have another redeeming quality, which is the ability to come in through the backdoor because they, too, can put up points in a real hurry. Just ask UCLA, a team they lost by 15 to but scored 87 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
MILWAUKEE +193 over San Antonio
San Antonio is an uncanny 11-0 away from home this season so the Bucks seem to be another victim set up to be trampled by Greg Popovich and company but at some point this road bubble is going to burst and it’s all about finding the right spot. Three of the Spurs last five road games were decided by less than the points being offered here while one other was by just seven over the free-falling Mavericks. San An is winning on the road but they are doing so by the slimmest of margins lately.
The Bucks are poised and positioned to get the money here. This is a basketball team that enters on a four-game winning streak while also going 4-2 at home in their last six. Milwaukee hasn’t just beaten down teams like Brooklyn over this span. This is an outfit that owns a home win over Memphis and also soundly defeated Cleveland at the BMO Harris Bradley Center by a considerable margin last week. The Bucks also put up 121 points on Golden State in a 124-121 defeat at the Bradley Center. The Bucks have arguably one of the best players in the game currently, who is having an absurd breakout season. This man is none other than Giannis “The Greek Freak” Antetokoumpo. While the name may be a bit of a tongue-twister, Giannis’ play has been as smooth as it gets. The Greek Freak has hit 52.6% from the field this season while averaging 22.6 points per game. Giannis has also been posting averages of 8.2 rebounds per game, 2.2 assists per game and 2.2 steals per game. Simply put, Giannis does it all. Not only has the upstart forward been a cash cow for FanDuel players in the early going of the 2016-17 campaign, he has also been a catalyst for this young Bucks team trying to claw their way back into the playoffs under the guidance of Jason Kidd. So far no one has had an answer for Antetokoumpo as he has been a difficult riddle to solve for every team that has encountered him. As a result of his presence on the hardwood, the Bucks own the number one defense in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage and opponent three-point field goal percentage, which is terrible news for the Spurs who lead the league in three-point shooting. The match-up here is a perfect scenario for Milwaukee to come in on its own court against an outfit due for attrition on the road at some point. While the Deers are hot with a true stallion leading the charge, they really ought to be feared. As a dog at home, the Bucks offer up tremendous value almost every time and there is no exceptions here.
Chip Chirimbes
Indianapolis at New York
Pick: New York
After missing a game because of a concussion Andrew Luck will return Monday night in New York against the Jets. Indianapolis is still in the playoff hunt at 5-6 trailing Houston (6-6) and Tennessee (6-6) the AFC South leaders. The Jets are last in the East and have dropped three straight and haven't forced a turnover in any of those losses,but have defeated the Colts the last two meetings against Luck. New York has struggled at times throwing the ball but should be able to run with Matt Forte against the Colts 23rd ranked run defense.
Randall the Handle
Colts (5-6) at N.Y. Jets (3-8 )
There are just a handful of teams that the Colts should be road favorites against. The Jets are not one of them. It’s very difficult and very dangerous to be giving away any points with a team that ranks 30th against the pass and sits 28th in points allowed. This Indy team was favored in Jacksonville and lost. Granted, the Jets aren’t exactly a juggernaut, but if you look real closely, they aren’t quite as bad as their record might indicate. Gang Green has actually outgained their opponents in yards per play in four of their past five matchups. They hung tight with the Patriots last week. With a bye thrown in, they’ve been home for four weeks and are seeking their first win in that time frame. Andrew Luck is expected back for the Colts but that doesn’t concern us. In a Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Luck game last year at Indianapolis, the Jets left town with a 20-7 win. Colts aren’t any better and not sure Jets are any worse. TAKING: JETS +1½
Bob Balfe
Jets +1
The only team that gives up more sacks than the Colts are the Cleveland Browns. Andrew Luck misses time do to a concussion and their center Ryan Kelly did also. This is the NFL. You can’t just miss reps and expect to click on all cylinders. This Colts Offense can’t run the football and their receivers have been dropping way too many balls for my liking. The only good news is they are playing the New York Jets. On the other side of the football the Colts have an aging and banged up defense. I just don’t trust this team and maybe Andrew Luck isn’t exactly the elite quarterback we all want him to be. The Jets have been running the football pretty well as of late and they will dominate both lines of scrimmage tonight. The trenches really are the key in this football game.
Bruce Marshall
Blue Jackets -1.5 +131
Sometimes we like to go the opposite direction in the second of a back-to-back set, but considering that Arizona couldn't beat Columbus at home on Saturday, and has struggled all season on the road, don't at all mind backing the Blue Jackets in the return match. Especially with the Coyotes going with struggling backup GK Louis Domingue, and first choice Mike Smith taking a break.
Coyotes / Blue Jackets Over 5.5
Sometimes we like to go the opposite direction in the second of a back-to-back set, but considering that Arizona couldn't beat Columbus at home on Saturday, and has struggled all season on the road, don't at all mind backing the Blue Jackets in the return match. Especially with the Coyotes going with struggling backup GK Louis Domingue, and his 3.21 GAA. These teams can get beyond five goals tonight.
BUSTER SPORTS
Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets
Play: Boston Celtics +5.5
Today's freeplay comes from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas where the Boston Celtics visit the Houston Rockets. Great situational play tonight with the Rockets coming home off a long 5 game road trip where they played excellent basketball and won 4 out of the 5 games. We believe the last couple of games both wins for the Rockets will take a bit out of them especially once they get home and relax a bit. They went to double OT in Golden St. then went the next night to the high altitude of Denver and beat the Nuggets. We see the Rockets coming out just a bit sluggish tonight as they have to be very pleased with themselves after the successful road trip. The Celtics have been playing some great basketball themselves and have won 6 out of their last 8 games to climb up to 3rd in the Eastern Conference. The oddsmaker has the line set at 5 1/2 at the time of this writing and we believe this is way too many points. This game will be close at the end and the Celtics might even win OR but with the generous points we will be happy to play the underdog here.
CAL SPORTS
UConn at Syracuse
Play: Under 129.5
The Syracuse Orange are 5-2 this season with a 1-2 ATS record and a 1-2 Over/Under record. The Orange started off this season with 4 straight wins versus inferior opponents and then lost back-to-back games against South Carolina and Wisconsin before beating North Florida on Saturday. Connecticut is only off to a 3-4 start going 0-5 ATS and 2-2 O/U. The Huskies were upset in their first two games and have rotated wins and losses since including losses to Oklahoma State and Oregon.
Syracuse returned 3 starters this season from their Final Four team of a year ago but are going through some maturation pains. Orange head coach Jim Boeheim made a change to the line-up in their last game starting freshman Tyus Battle in lieu of returning starter Tyler Roberson and the results were mixed with a 5 point win. Syracuse is a 3-point shooting team and are hitting 43% from behind the arc but it is tough to trust them as a favorite as the only shoot 66% from the free throw line.
Connecticut also returned 3 starters this season form a team which lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. However, in the fourth game of the season they lost two of those three returning starters and both will miss the entire season. The Huskies are now basically playing just two guards almost the entire game which will create problems when they reach conference play.
I look for UConn to slow the pace with their limited depth and while it would benefit Syracuse to press the pace of play that is not their style as they are #283 out of 351 teams in Kenpoms adjusted tempo rankings.
Dave Essler
Montana St. -9
Clearly in the smaller conference games anything can happen. These are the games where big underdogs routinely win outright - so I'm just not betting a lot here. The first and perhaps the biggest disparity here is the pace. Montana State runs and Milwaukee walks, and the home team usually dictates the pace. Milwaukee has a new coach, a Frehsman PG, and a Freshman C. They have no defense, can't rebound, and suck from the line. They're less experience and smaller. So, there's no real reason to think they can win other than the fact that Montana State is certainly not as predictable as a Top 25 team - Montana State does not turn the ball over and does shoot well from the line. Of course, they're a run 'n gun team so if they go ice cold they can be had. However, almost everyone on the team can shoot, so surely someone or a couple of someone's will make shots. And because they'll play fast, it's harder for them to sit on a lead and kill clock if they're up 10 with a few minutes to play. The more I think this through the more I do love the game, but back to the beginning, anything can happen.
OC Dooley
Nuggets -4
This is one of those wagers where I feel the oddsmakers have made a major statement casting Denver as a substantial road favorite even though they are on a current 4-10 skid on the scoreboard. In addition back on Saturday the Nuggets had a road game (Utah) in a thin air/high altitude location and a very short period of time have traveled all the way to the eastern time zone. One can argue tonight's game is important for confidence purposes as Denver still has 5 mosre consecutive "road" affairs on what is an extended trip. I am aware lowly Philadelphia is off a very competitive "one point" home loss, but in the prior pair of outings the Sixers lost by a combined FORTY FOUR points. Getting back to this evening's visitor in the past couple of seasons after 4 consecutive poor defensive efforts allowing 100+ points each time the Denver has gone an incredible 11-1 ATS in ROAD setups like tonight