Free Picks for Monday, January 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
UL LAFAYETTE AT ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK
PLAY: UL LAFAYETTE -1.5
One of my other resolutions for 2017 is to get a little less wordy with my analysis. I don’t think it’s necessary to publish a short novel each day when brevity will suffice. It’s not like I’m in the hunt for a Pulitzer Prize, so I’m going to just cut to the chase more frequently this year.
On this game, I’ve got a UL Lafayette team that looms as one of the favorites in the Sun Belt looking to avoid an 0-2 start in league play. The Cajuns dropped a tough game at Arkansas State on Saturday and need to bounce right back tonight.
Plenty of motivation for ULL as they lost three times to Little Rock last season. That wasn’t exactly shocking as the Trojans were a powerhouse last year. But head coach Chris Beard has moved on, and the personnel simply isn’t as good this season. They’re still a decent team by Sun Belt standards, but several league entries will be in payback mode this time around.
ULL owns several advantages in the head to head categorical comparisons, and with what should be some clear motivation, I like the Cajuns to win here. I’d recommend spotting the short number with UL Lafayette.
Sleepyj
Nuggets / Warriors Over 227.5
Usually I would autofade this kind of number for the under, but these two teams might score 250 in this game tonight...GS will be running at high speed and Denver shoots very early in the shot clock...Turnovers will be huge tonight and fast break points will be very high...GS will eventually shoot the lights out at some point, but Denver will keep on answering the bell in this one..High number, but i'd rather take the over with these two teams then sweat out an under play.
Chip Chirimbes
Iowa vs. Florida
Play: Florida -3
Florida who takes pride in the defense (that's because they have little offense) held eight of their first 10 opponents to 14 points of few before their final two games against Florida State and Alabama. They are without their defensive coordinator as he left for he head coaching job at Temple and we expect little drop-off. Florida schools playing bowl games in the state have incredible win records.
Ben Burns
Nuggets vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -14½
The Warriors already crushed the Nuggets by 24 points at Denver back in November and I could see this one also turning ugly. The Nuggets are struggling right now. They've failed to cover five straight and couldn't even beat the 76'ers in their last game. Knowing that they've got a winnable game (Sacramento) on deck tomorrow night, if/when they fall behind big here, they may save some gas in the tank for the Kings, rather than giving everything needed to fight back. The Warriors, who don't play tomorrow so have no reason to "save themselves," are 4-1 ATS their last five as home favorites in the -12.5 to -15 range. They're outscoring teams by a 120.9 to 104.1 average here and I won't be surprised when they exceed that 16.8 margin tonight.
Mike Lundin
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee
Play: Oklahoma City +2
The Oklahoma City Thunder closed out the calendar year in style by winning five of their last six games. They covered the spread in each victory and are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with the Bucks at Milwaukee. The Bucks have alternated wins and losses through their past six games (covering the spread in the wins but not in the defeats), and I think they're due for a loss again as they're coming off a 116-96 win at Chicago. We can also note that the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and OKC has Victor Oladipo back from injury which is a huge plus for the visitors
As the clincher; Thunder are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Monday games while the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games.
Mike Anthony
Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: Marshall -5.5
Marshall was able to build off of their competitive recent defeats on the road against Cincy and Pitt as the Thundering Herd dominated action in their conference opener taking down FIU on the road by a final of 94-70. This Marshall squad returns a lot of veteran talent from last year’s team and the Herd have the tools to compete for the CUSA regular season title. Marshall likes to play at a frantic pace and this group has been lighting up the scoreboard ranking 8th in the nation in scoring average. Elmore and Browning have been the offensive anchors leading the team averaging 20.9 and 17.6 points per game respectively. FAU hasn’t gotten off to the kind of start they were hoping for this season standing 4-8 overall and looking bad in their conference home opener losing to Western Kentucky by a final of 54-69.
The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing with a ton of confidence and momentum right now on the offensive end. We like for Marshall to keep things rolling as they go on to win and cover this manageable spread on the road Monday night.
Frank Jordan
Nuggets vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -14½
Denver comes in at 14-19 and currently on the outside looking in sitting in the 9th spot in the West. Denver is coming of a loss, but have won six of 10. Denver has a 7-10 record on the road, but have held their own in conference with a 9-10 record. Golden State is the top team in the West and in the NBA with a 29-5 record. Golden State has won their last two games, nine of 10, and 14-2 at home. Golden State is 19-4 in conference games and have been scoring a league high 117 point per game. These two teams first met in Denver on November 10th with the Warriors winning 125-101 as Curry went off for 33. For the season Curry and Durant have been averaging a combined 50 points a game. Durant's best scoring month is January and with the calendar flipping over look for big points and scores nearly 30 points a game against Denver. Durant will go for 35 points with the good numbers and Curry will add in 30 of his own getting some open looks with the Nuggets looking to stop Durant.
Bruce Marshall
Samford at Western Carolina
Pick: Samford
Not many options for Western Carolina, which scores only 58 ppg and has little comeback ability as it shoots below 28% beyond the arc. The Catamounts were gutted by graduation after last season and have suffered some frightful beatings, with six of their last seven losses by double digits. Much prefer Samford side bound for some postseason tourney and owning excellent balance with four DD scorers. Many ways for Bulldogs to extend margin as they shoot better than 40% from the floor and 72% from the FT line.
Jim Feist
Nuggets at Warriors
Pick: Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games. Now they have to face to Northern Cal to face the West's best team in Golden State. The Warriors always seem to lay big numbers, especially at home. Golden State has covered the spread in three of their last four attempts as a 12.5 point chalk or more. These clubs have identical spread records this season at 16-17. The Warriors have covered nine of 16 at home, while the Nuggets have covered nine of 17 on the road. However, the Nuggets have had the upper hand in this series with the Warriors. Denver has covered five of the last seven meetings and five of the last six at Golden State. I don't expect the Nuggets to win outright, but 14 to 15 points is a lot for to pass on here. I'm taking the road dog in Denver.
Anthony Michael
Oklahoma -3
Oklahoma really turned their season around after 2 early non-conference losses to Houston and Ohio State. They were on fire down the stretch led by their stud QB Mayfield. Look for that to continue here against Auburn stumbled in their last 2 games against real teams losing to Georgia and Alabama. Auburn has a good defense but they don't have the offense to hang with Oklahoma here. Take the Sooners to get this win and cover.
Jimmy Boyd
Iowa vs. Florida
Play: Iowa +3
I like the value here with Iowa, who I trust a lot more to show up in this game. Bouncing back from a loss in a conference championship game is really hard to do. That’s not the only factor here that has me concerned with the Gators being motivated.
Florida is a team that has had a ridiculous amount of players who dealing with injuries. They have 5 players out for the season and another 17 players listed as questionable. It’s hard to take advantage of all the extra practice time with that many players sidelined.
Another key factor here is the Gators lost defensive coordinator Geoff Collins to Temple. While some coordinators stick around until after the bowl, Collins is not with the team. Randy Shannons will take over. Given how much Florida relies on their defense, this is a huge loss that’s getting overlooked.
Iowa has already beat a team very similar to Florida in Michigan, who is a better version of the Gators. Speaking of that win over the Wolverines. That was a major turning point for the Hawkeyes. The followed that up with a 28-0 win at Illinois and 40-10 win over rival Nebraska. Not only are they riding a wave of momentum, this game means a lot.
That awful showing against Stanford last year will serve as a huge motivator for this Iowa team. A lot of the players who were part of that game are back this year. The Hawkeyes also haven’t won a bowl game since the 2010 Insight Bowl.
The other big thing here is that this Iowa defense should be able to keep Florida’s offense in check. The Gators have got some of the worst QB play in the country. The Hawkeyes finished 24th in the country in total defense (352.9 ypg). It’s also a unit that was playing it’s best at the end of the year. They allowed a mere 23 points over their last 3 games combined.
Hawkeyes are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a SU win. Florida on the other hand is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 17 or less in 2 straight games.
Harry Bondi
Penn State / USC Under 60
The Nittany Lions have been an over team all season, but this is a game where they do not want to get in a shootout with an opponent that has a much better set of skill position players, so look for James Franklin and his staff to come out with a conservative game plan today The Trojans, meanwhile, are 9-3 to the under this season and an even better 7-1 to the under when listed as a favorite and the USC defense has allowed more than 20 points just twice in its last eight games. It’s a low-scoring game in Pasadena.
David Banks
Auburn vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Auburn +2.5
Early in the 2016 season, the opponents in this year’s Allstate Sugar Bowl – Auburn and Oklahoma – were written off as contenders for their respective conference titles, not to mention the College Football Playoff. Both Sooners and the Tigers lost two of their first three games to teams ranked in the AP Top 25. It was bad enough at Auburn that head coach Gus Malzahn’s job security was questioned. It’s a good thing there were plenty of games left for both teams. Oklahoma (10-2) hasn’t lost a game since and Auburn (8-4) won six in a row to crawl back into the SEC West race before losses to Georgia and Alabama derailed the Tigers’ championship hopes.
Now, the two tradition-rich teams will square off in a game that will feature plenty of offense. The Sooners are the No. 3 offense in the country in terms of scoring and total offense. Oklahoma averages a whopping 557 yards per game and 44.7 points running their version of the Air Raid offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 3,669 yards passing and 38 touchdowns. The Sooners, who rush for 237.5 yards per game, have the best one-two combination of running backs in the country. Joe Mixon has 1,183 yards and teammate Samaje Perine isn’t far behind with 974. Mayfield and his top receiver, Dede Westbrook (1,465 yards, 16 TDs), were finalists for the Heisman Trophy.
Auburn, which has struggled for a year or two, has finally got back to its roots. The Tigers are sixth in the nation in rushing offense averaging 278.5 yards a game. Kamryn Pettway leads the Tigers with 1,123 yards on the ground. The time off has helped Pettway get back to 100 percent for the bowl game. Kerryon Johnson has 862 yards on the ground and leads the team with 11 rushing touchdowns. While the passing game isn’t that great, QB Sean White is efficient enough (65.2 percent, 1,644 yards). The key for Auburn could be its defense which is remarkably better under new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. The Tigers are fifth in the nation in scoring defense allowing just 15.6 points per game.
Buster Sports
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls
Play: Charlotte Hornets Pk
The Bulls are a team that look like they are in real trouble. Last game they lost to the Bucks 116-96, for the 3rd straight time in a month and today they take on another foe that they have had trouble with in the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets have already beaten the Bulls just before XMAS 103-91 in Charlotte and we will be backing the visitor here tonight. The Hornets are coming off of a loss themselves to the World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers 121 -109. Despite that loss the Hornets have been playing great basketball of late winning 5 out of their last 7. The Bulls allowed Milwaukee to shoot 56.6% from the field the last game and that kind of defense will be trouble for any NBA team. The problem for the Bulls all year hasn't been their defense but their offense, and now they have gone 3 out of their last 4 games shooting under 40%.With the Bulls being a mess on both sides of the ball lately look for Charlotte to pick up the win. The oddsmaker has this game at a PK at the time of this writing and we will put a small portion of our bankroll on the Hornets.