Tony Finn
Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets
Play: Utah Jazz -7
With football in postseason mode, the completion of most of the 40 bowl games schedule this past holiday season and the National Football League entering postseason tournament mode it is time to focus on the hard-court. Tonight’s complimentary NBA prediction from WagerTalk comes to you via the Association when the Utah Jazz visit the Big Apple to square off against the Brooklyn Nets. The tipoff for this Monday Night Basketball affair is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET at the Barclays Center.
The story of George Hill and his adventurous tales during his time in Utah are far too involved to include in this Monday Night NBA game analysis. In short, during his first season with the Utah Jazz, Hill’s on and off the court relationship with injury has resulted in him missing extended periods of playing time as a member of the Utah squad. The Jazz will be without their starting point guard again when they visit the Brooklyn. It is nothing short of a miracle that the Jazz have been able to maintain their focus and register a 21-13 mark despite their early season ailments and lineup shuffles. Utah played only its third game this season with what was expected to be their starting five this past in Phoenix but lost Hill to injury, again, after the floor general too an elbow to the face from Suns center Alex Len late in the first quarter.
The 2016-17 Nets are last year’s Philadelphia 76ers meaning they won’t win more games than they lose this year. It won’t be close, in fact. There wasn’t and isn’t much expected of them on most nights other than a workman like effort. The Nets, are as well, without their starting point guard Jeremy Lin who missed the last two games due to a hamstring strain. Without an experienced point-man leading the Nets on offense the squad has been inconsistent offensively and the results of such are evidence by their 24 losses in 32 games so far in 2016. Brooklyn ranks last in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing an average of 114 points per game and have had their share of locker-room issues this season. The team acknowledged the current tension in the locker room this past week and held a players-only meeting. "We really have to have a level of trust that we haven’t had yet this season in one another," center Brook Lopez told the media. "We really can make each other and our team better together. The only way the system is going to work is if everyone buys in."
The Jazz are all about defense and have the ability to find victory despite suffering through periods of offensive ineffectiveness. Center Rudy Gobert protects the paint and has been the team’s anchor at protecting the rim. The Jazz big is averaging nearly 3 shot blocks per game this season second in the NBA only to New Orleans' Anthony Davis. The Jazz are quite capable of taking on and putting down any team in the league with their defensive prowess and their ability to score behind the likes of Gordon Hayward (22 ppg), Rodney Hood (15 ppg), Gobert (13 ppg) and a healthy George Hill (19 ppg).
Even without the services of their point guard tonight, Hill, there is far too much of a gab in talent between these two franchises and most import for tonight’s contest is the matchup issues that the Nets face against the Jazz, not only scoring but preventing Utah from registering 110-plus points, something the teams doesn’t do often, but when they do they win. The Jazz are 15-2 straight up when they score 100 or more points.
Back the Association’s No. 1 defense (Utah leads the NBA in scoring defense 94.7 points per game) tonight against the Nets and their league worst defensive numbers . The Nets have allowed at least 108 points in 21 of their last 23 games.
Cal Sports
USC vs Penn St
Play: USC -6.5
On Sunday September 25th the USC Trojans and Penn St Nittany Lions were a combined 3-5 with visions of the Rose Bowl not even appearing in their wildest dreams. However on Selection Sunday many called for Penn St to receive a playoff berth while even more called USC the team that was playing the best football of anyone. One example of how well these two were playing is that they combined to cover 14 straight games against the spread and did so convincingly by an amazing 18 PPG! This is the tenth meeting in this series with USC leading 5-4 including their last showdown in the 2009 Rose Bowl (35-24). While this was the last Rose Bowl trip for both teams the Trojans obviously play here against UCLA every other year and they were at this site back on November 19th when they beat the Bruins 36-14.
The USC Trojans started the season 1-3 but their opener was against Alabama then after a win against Utah St they played at my then #12 defense Stanford and at my then #7 defense Utah. Most teams would go 1-3 with that schedule their first four games. The Trojans made a QB change for the Utah game and the Sam Darnold era started. Darnold started the final 9 throwing for 2,663 (68.1%) with a 26-8 ratio and finished #10 in QB rating. RB Justin Davis started the first 6 and was injured had 564 yds and 5.4 YPC but Ronald Jones stepped in and after having only 152 yards after 5 games he finished with 1,027 yards and an impressive 6.5 YPC with both available here. JJ Shuster led with 63 receptions and 781 yards. USC can also thank Thorpe winner/AA returnman Adoree’ Jackson for four TD’s with a pair coming on both KR’s and PR’s. The defense has my #11 ranking as while they were #30 in yards allowed they faced FIVE of my top 22 offenses. Ten defenders started 11 or more games and with DT Zach Brenner clogging the middle yards are tough to come by.
Penn St was 2-2 and trailed Minnesota 13-3 at halftime. In OT Minny kicked a FG but one play later the Lions and parlayed that victory with a win against Maryland to be 4-2 going into their bye week. A ‘white-out” win changed their destiny as they trailed Ohio St 21-7 in the 4Q but got a TD after a blocked punt and another on a blocked TD giving then their first win against a AP ranked #1 of #2 since 1990. Two games later the Lions outgained Iowa by 365 yards the week before the Hawkeyes beat Michigan and then in the regular season finale they trailed Michigan St at halftime but outscored them 35-0 in the 2H to get to the B10 Title game. Penn St trailed yet again versus Wisconsin but came back from a 28-7 deficit. Usually when a team improves down the stretch it is thanks to god health but Penn St actually started 5 different OL combos their last 5 games due to injuries. Sophomore QB Trace McSorely threw for 3,360 yards with a 25-5 ratio and while he only completed 57.5% there are reason why. McSorely led the country in yards per completions at 16.1 YPC and was second in the nation with 61 completions over 20 yards and 22 completions of 40 yards. Big Ten offensive POY Saquon Barkley rushed for 1,302 yards (5.3) and added 347 yards (15.1) receiving. Chris Godwin (795, 15.9) was the top receiver but Saeed Blacknell who had 9 receptions into the B10 Title game had 6 for 155 yds with 2 TD’s in that game. The Lions with my #19 defense lost 5 LB’s to season ending injuries this year and Brian Bell missed 4.5 games yet still finished second in tackles. No player earned first team all-conference honors but 18 players at least ½ sack with a pair sharing the lead at 6.
The 4 Playoff teams have a combined record of 48-3 with two losses coming against these two foes as USC beat Washington and Penn St beat Ohio St. While the Nittany Lions are a feel good story the talent gap is too wide. First year USC head coach Clay Helton has brought a workman-like attitude to USC with the glitz and glamour now gone. That’s the type of team you need to cover as a major bowl favorite. Penn St has only faced two teams that are the same caliber of the Trojans and against the Buckeyes and Wolverines they were outgained by 436 yards and outF’d by 11. The USC football program has basically been an embarrassment with their last 5 bowls being the Holiday (2X), Las Vegas, Sun and Emerald and the cream rises to the top.
USC FUN FACT: USC has played in the Rose Bowl game during the term of every US President since Herbert Hoover in 1929.
USC Trojans 42 Penn State Nittany Lions 30
The Prez
Iowa vs. Florida
Play: Iowa +3
The post-New Year’s Day Bowl lineup offers up a four closing holiday event for college football fanatics beginning with a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff from Raymond James Stadium when Big 10 Iowa and SEC Florida square off in Tampa, Florida. The early kick offers another daytime gridiron event for those who are not quite ready to give up the holiday weekend of football a Monday back-to-work distraction.
Florida lived and died of the performance of their defense this season and their final two games of the 2016 regular season state was evidence of such as the Gators suffered two losses in which they gave up 85 total points, falling to instate rival Florida State 31-13 and to Alabama in the SEC championship game by an ugly 54-16 final tally.
Florida had allowed 14 or fewer points in eight of its first 10 games earning a shot at an SEC Championship game against the Crimson Tide and they head into this January 2nd postseason event after a shuffling of the coaching staff. The Gators defensive coordinator Geoff Collins was hired away from the team to take over the head coaching slot for the Temple Owls leaving former Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes coach Randy Shannon to fill the DC role for the school against Iowa.
The Hawkeyes have had over a month to prepare for this New Year’s Weekend event, last playing on November 25th, closing the season with a 40-10 victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Iowa won their final three games of the regular season slate upsetting the Michigan Wolverines, earning a victory in Champagne against the Illinois Illini and the aforementioned Huskers.
Iowa began this 2016 season with adversity losing top receiver (Matt VandeBerg) to a season-ending injury. Head coach Kirk Ferentz and his staff scuffled the entire season with injuries to key offensive player personnel including shaking up the team’s strength, their offensive line. Captain and senior quarterback C.J. Beathard led the team to victory in the final three weeks of November and did so by throwing for less than 290 yards combined the last three weeks. The Hawk’s did what they do best which is run the football behind one of the best offensive lines in Division 1. The defense did their best Florida imitation allowing just 23 total points in the last three games behind All-American linebacker Josey Jewell and defensive back Desmond King.
The Gators enter what is their reward for earning first place in the SEC East and an overall 8-4 season but do so with a plethora of question marks. Florida experienced a large number of injuries this season but found a way to win the SEC South and earn a shot at the SEC title game with a 6-3 overall conference mark. The Gators were without starting quarterback Luke Del Rio in the final stages of the season, going 1-2 in games at LSU and Florida State, and then versus Alabama on a neutral field. The coaching staff list Del Rio as probable for today’s Outback Bowl but have announced they will stay with backup Austin Appleby as their starting quarterback.
Neither of these two Power-5 schools were consistent this season and both suffered key injuries that altered their identity. Iowa fortified their resume with a big win over Michigan but in the team’s only other challenge against a quality bowl opponent, Penn State, they simply didn’t show up.
Conversely, the Gators allowed a ridiculous 483 yards on the ground over the last two games and face the challenge of slowing the Iowa running game behind the Hawkeyes stellar offensive line. In truth the Florida Gators look much different in this Outback Bowl than they did most of the regular SEC schedule. Injuries have forced Florida into shape-shifter mode and I question the ability of the Gators to offer up 60 minutes of quality football today.
Executive Sports
Iowa vs. Florida
Play: Iowa +2.5
Last year Iowa had a great season going 12-2 SU. They lost to Michigan St by 3 in the Big 10 Championship game, and then got totally embarrassed by Stanford in the Rose Bowl losing 45-16. This year they went 8-4 SU while winning their final 3 games and 5 of their last 7. This year they play in the Outback Bowl against Florida who also went 8-4 on the season. Last year Florida went 10-4, and they too lost in their Conference Championship Game, and they too got thrashed 41-7 in their bowl game against Michigan. Both would like to make amends for last year's poor bowl performance. While Florida's defense got worse down the stretch this year, Iowa's showed much improvement. Go with the hotter defense and the better offense getting points.
Brad Wilton
Not sure about the side, but damn sure about the total, as I don't see Iowa and Florida heading over this low total at all in the Outback Bowl.
Iowa played 2 of their final 3 games Under the total, and played 7 of their 12 for the year Under the total. The Hawkeyes are a rebuilding team on both offense and defense, and their defense did a very solid job this year allowing just under 18 points per game for the long haul.
Florida had to deal with injuries all season long, and their offense certainly suffered with just 16 1/2 points per game averaged over their last 6 games of the campaign. The Gators defense held opponents under 18 points per game for the year, as the Under was 8-4 in Gator games this year.
All 4 of the New Year's Eve bowl games held Under the total, and the Under is now on a 12-6 run over the last 18 bowl games contested.
With both defenses doing their job, both challenged offenses have their hands full.
Under in the Outback Bowl on Monday.
2* IOWA-FLORIDA UNDER
Brett Atkins
This play is not so much a play on Auburn as it is a play against Oklahoma.
True, the Sooners cleaned up after starting 0-2 on the year, but we have reached the time of the season where Bob Stoops has turned into a pumpkin.
There is no doubt the Sooners own the edge in this game at the skill positions, but let's take a look at OU's recent bowl showings shall we?
Oklahoma made it to the playoffs last year and were a -4 point favorite over Clemson and got run over 37-17 to make it outright bowl losses in their last pair, and outright losses in bowl games in 3 of their last 4, and 6 of their last 10 overall.
Bottom line; "Big Game" Bob has a bit of a monkey on his back, and I will play against him with pleasure tonight in New Orleans.
Auburn did win and cover their bowl game last year against Memphis, and they did go 2-0-1 against the spread this season as the underdog. You can expect the Tigers to have a few more fans in the stands at the Superdome too, since it is just a short trek over from Alabama to the Big Easy.
The Tigers defense did a solid job against FBS schools this season, and Gus Malzahn's team will get a boost with quarterback Sean White now back from his shoulder injury.
Bowl dogs entered the day with an 18-7 spread mark, so let's grab the points and roll with the dog in the Sugar Bowl.
4* AUBURN
Scott Rickenbach
Chicago vs St Louis
Play: Chicago +110
Including yesterday's result, there have been 20 regular season outdoor NHL games played since 2003 and, surprisingly, the road team is 14-6 (70%) in these games. There is some nice underdog line value here considering that, including playoffs, the road team is 7-2 (78%) in the last 9 meetings between these clubs. Even though Chicago has taken 2 of the 3 regular season meetings between the clubs this season, there is still some extra fire burning for this game today because it is the Blues whom knocked them out of the playoffs last season. As for St Louis, they enter this game off of a shutout loss but the Blues have actually lost 7 of 9 games this season when off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. Also, St Louis has allowed an average of nearly 4 goals per game in their last 8 games. The Blackhawks have allowed only about 2 goals per game in their last 19 games. Grab the value with the underdog Hawks here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida -3 over Iowa
The Gators are taking a lot of heat here for the way they finished the season. They have been getting negative press for well over a month and their defensive coordinator Geoff Collins has also moved on. Florida lost its two final regular season games by a combined score of 85-29 while the Hawkeyes won their last three games of the season by beating Nebraska (40-10), Illinois 28-0 and a then undefeated Michigan squad by a score of 14-13. Combine what happened in the final weeks of the season between the two combatants here and it sets up the perfect buy-low, sell-high opportunity.
Indeed, Iowa deserves credit for defeating Michigan but it’s more noteworthy that the Hawkeyes were a 24-point underdog in that game. The Wolverines were simply flat in a game they figured all they had to do was show up in. Beating a banged up and weak Nebraska team means nothing either. The Hawkeyes were also expected to beat Illinois as a 9½-point favorite. What sticks out more to us is the Hawkeyes defeating Rutgers, 14-7 in a year in which the Scarlet Knights basketball team could beat their football team. IU was destroyed by Penn State, 41-14 and also lost to FCS opponent North Dakota State. Weak victories over Purdue and Iowa State as -11½ and -15½-point favorites respectively, does nothing to bolster the Hawkeyes weak résumé. This is a Hawkeyes’ team that can’t move forward and often get their rear ends handed to them when the chips are down. Iowa has lost its last four bowl games while being outscored 98-7 in the first half of those games.
Florida’s stock is low after losing two in a row and three of five to close out the year. However, they lost to Alabama, Florida State and Arkansas. That’s two juggernauts and one very good football team and it should be noted that the Gators were favored over the Hogs whole being just a 9½-point dog to Florida State. That’s worth repeating….the Hawkeyes were a 24-point pooch at home versus Michigan while the Florida was a 9½-point pooch at Florida State. Pay more attention to the odds makers than the results. In between those three aforementioned losses, the Gators defeated LSU, 16-10. The Gators will also get back a slew of injured bodies on defense that were all out for the final few weeks of the season. The Gators chased away their backers during the final four weeks of the season and as a result, this game is priced like it’s a fair fight but if we take away in-game variance and the ball bounces fairly, it’s not a fair fight at all and the partisan crowd also helps.
Western Michigan +8½ over Wisconsin
The Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic is bound to throw up your prototypical big dog versus little dog brawl where the little dog appears to be written off from the get-go. We can’t say this is a David vs. Goliath match-up because Wisconsin has never been a college football superheavyweight such as Oklahoma, Alabama or Florida State. Furthermore we have seen Wisconsin go into the Rose Bowl against #3 TCU when the Frogs were still in the Mountain West and lose the game outright so there is no credence in playing that angle. What we have here is an excellent spot play for the Western Michigan Broncos, who are without question being disrepected in the number here, which is a very motivating factor.
For Wisconsin, this season has to be considered a success. The Badgers came into 2016 unranked and as a 13-point pooch they defeated LSU on opening weekend. That victory served as the first domino that would lead to Wisky’s ultimate ascension up the Big 10 and into the Championship Game. At the end of the day, Wisconsin lost three games this season against the three best teams in the conference: Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. However, we have to wonder if the Badgers are considering what could have been in light of Ohio State rallying back against them to win in overtime combined with the 21-point comeback win orchestrated in the Big 10 Championship by Penn State. Had Wisconsin held the lead in both games, they may have been sitting as the #3 seed in the College Football Playoff. This underdog could beat Wisconsin, maybe soundly, if the Badgers are still in the tank from losing the Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl berth after leading Penn State by three touchdowns.
The Western Michigan Broncos 13-0 mark is no fluke nor is it any indication that this team has been on the fortunate side of luck. This is not the Hawaii team that got smoked in the 2008 Sugar Bowl who played teams like Charleston Southern to pad their schedule. Western Michigan has already dispatched two Big Ten teams earlier this season when they upset Northwestern on the road and handily defeated Illinois. In MAC play, Western Michigan had no close calls until they got to the MAC Championship Game where they had to hold off Ohio. Otherwise, the average margin of victory in regular season conference play was a minimum of two touchdowns in every game they played. This is a team with some robust talent in their ranks, including quarterback Zack Terrell, wide receiver Corey Davis and a dynamic duo of running backs in Jamauri Bogan and Jarvion Franklin. The best collection of talent in MAC history tries to stake its claim as the best team ever, and the Broncos couldn't ask for a better measuring stick than a Big Ten heavyweight. What we know for sure is that WMU will be dialed in and the Badgers are not built to blow teams out. Wisconsin is built to wear down teams while grinding out wins and that is not conducive to spotting big weight. Upset possibility and great value on the dog.
USC -7 over Penn State
These teams have a lot of past familiarity with each other, as they met here in 2009 where USC would dominate the Nittany Lions. For those keeping tabs on the historical series between the Trojans and Nittany Lions, the Men of Troy currently stand at 4-3 in the seven most recent collisions between the two. Since 2009, the two programs have not encountered each other but all those past results mean nothing, as they have no impact whatsoever on the outcome of this one.
Many have billed this one to be a slugfest between the two hottest teams in college football. Both teams own impressive wins to their credit. For USC, it has won its last eight. Building upon this, the Trojans most prolific result was handing #4 ranked and Pac-12 Champion Washington, whom qualified for the College Football Playoff, its only defeat this season in UW’s backyard in Seattle.
Penn State has won its last nine games and capped off its streak with a Big 10 Championship. James Franklin rallied his troops from three scores down against Wisconsin to capture the trophy and round off a storied season for this university. In addition to the Big 10 title, PSU also defeated #3 Ohio State (who also qualified for the College Football Playoff) in Happy Valley, giving the Buckeyes at the time their sole loss this campaign. After watching Clemson manhandle OSU, that victory suddenly looks a lot less impressive. If you were thinking Penn State, we’d also be concerned about a few other things too. For one, the Nittany Lions have developed a bad habit of falling behind by big numbers. Should that come to fruition after a month off, there will be no coming back on the Trojans here. The Lions were down 21-7 to OSU, 21-0 to Wisky, 13-3 to Minnesota, and needed to outscore the Hoosiers 24-7 in the fourth quarter to avoid losing to that outfit. Some may argue that the Lions made great adjustments and got stronger as games wore on but that argument holds little weight because PSU also let teams back in it that it had two TD leads on.
There are good reasons the Pac-12 champ is a 7-point choice here and it’s likely a short number. The Midwestern entrant is the visitor with bigger challenges in terms of travel, time change, climate, crowd support and more. It's also too often shown up feeling a bit too happy to simply be there. Some of that certainly applies to a Penn State team that is less experienced than its opponent and had more late-season drama to move on from. Penn State is still a youngish team with a pair of first-year coordinators and far more holes in the roster than most Big Ten champs. The offensive line has come a long way from the days when Christian Hackenberg was getting sacked every third play but the Trojans' defensive front is sure to let Trace McSorley know early that he'll have plenty of chances to show off his scrambling ability. Clay Helton has made some unusual moves with his practice plan that we really like and Southern Cal looks locked and loaded to seriously put the hammer down on the overachieving Nittany Lions. This is a great team versus a slighty above average one and the great team is "at home".
Auburn +125 over Oklahoma
The Sooners are a notorious choke artist, particularly in games where they feel slighted or it is a step-back compared to a high-level card they always gun for. Every year it seems, prognosticators pick the Sooners to do something big and every year they choke somewhere along the way. Thew Sooners have been choking for years every since that famed loss to Boise State in 2007. Oklahoma’s most recent accolade in the Sugar Bowl came against Alabama in 2014 when the Sooners came in as the team that was undervalued and faced an Alabama team that was clearly viewing the Sugar Bowl as a commute more than a destination. However, the roles may reverse here and now Oklahoma is the team on the outside looking in while Auburn comes in at 8-4 with an opportunity to emerge as a hero of the SEC with a chance to protect the ailing reputation of this acclaimed college football super-conference.
Auburn's 8-4 record hasn't fooled the oddsmakers either, who have the Tigers a mere three-point dog to the Big 12 overlord. It hasn't even fooled the playoff committee, who has the Tigers ranked a tiny bit higher than a team with five more victories. It might fool Oklahoma, whose local media is producing headlines like "Sooners should reap benefit of the SEC being down." Don't let it fool you. This outfit is playing its best defense in years, boasts a top-shelf kicking game, and routinely goes off for five or six hundred rushing yards when healthy.
The focus at Auburn is often on the backfield trio, but its young receiving group is the most talented the school has ever rostered. With a healthy Sean White slinging the ball, we expect an underclassman receiver or two to break out and show the improvement he's made during bowl prep. The Tigers will move the ball on an Oklahoma defense that improved as the season went along, but is still feeling the effects of last year's senior leadership drain. The talent, production and chemistry of the Sooners offense is elite, but the opposing defensive line is a tough matchup and when the lights are brightest, OU's pedigree over the year's is one we're not interested in getting behind. Auburn has excellent leadership depth on both sides of the ball and is probably a bit tighter overall as a team. That's helped the Tigers prepare very well so far and they'll play like the favorite on this SEC turf. Auburn outright is the call.
Bruce Marshall
Arkansas St -10
Several highlight moments thru pre-Sun Belt play for Ark State, whose new HC Grant McCasland uncovered a couple of juco nuggets (Gs Deven Simms & Rashad Lindsey) to bolster the firepower quotient of a hot-shooting offense that has been near 50% from the floor the entire season, as former Kent State transfer and sr. G Devin Carter (17.6 ppg) continues to provide leadership. Not as much good news for ULM, where HC Keith Richard had to replace six starters and needed a series of soft foes in his pre-league slate to pad the team's W-L record. The Warhawks have been exposed vs. competent opposition, including 27-point blowout loss at Chattanooga last month.
Nelly
Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Play: Oklahoma
Last season Oklahoma overcame a slow start to make the College Football Playoff as the Big XII’s only representative in three years. They didn’t acquit themselves well in a blowout loss against Clemson and the Sooners started this season 1-2 with a stunning opening defeat against Houston and then an ugly 21-point home loss to Ohio State, a game that certainly gave the Buckeyes the comparison edge with Oklahoma among other teams in the eyes of the selection committee. Oklahoma ran the table in the Big XII with only a few close calls and they were dominant in huge games down the stretch against Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State in succession. Oklahoma’s offensive numbers certainly compare favorably with anyone in the nation, posting 557 yards per game on 7.6 yards per play with huge potential in the air and on the ground. The defense was suspect however surrendering 5.9 yards per play with a few notable showings that on their own were probably enough to disqualify the Sooners from College Football Playoff consideration. Auburn wasn’t necessarily expected to be a major bowl participant with an 8-4 season but looking around the SEC there weren’t any other viable contenders. SEC East champion Florida ended the season with back-to-back blowout losses, Tennessee’s star faded as the season went on and LSU was mired in a transition while only picking up seven wins as Auburn proved to be the next team in line though severely behind Alabama. Auburn did play very competitively with Clemson as facing two four playoff teams certainly boosted the schedule metrics. Auburn was in position to challenge Alabama in the SEC West but a November loss to Georgia made the Iron Bowl meaningless and the Tigers lost by 18 in that game anyway. Auburn’s offensive production didn’t match the best seasons for the program but the defense showed a big improvement this season featuring excellent numbers against the run. Auburn only won twice away from home this season and support could be balanced for these teams in a venue at a reasonable distance, as though Auburn has about half the distance to travel Oklahoma’s fan base has a wide reach. Oklahoma has had some off-the-field issues that may provide a bit of a distraction and Bob Stoops owns a losing record in bowl games but ultimately Auburn doesn’t looks well suited to keep up in a shootout and the Sooners are undervalued.
Eric Schroeder
I'm playing the Penn State Nittany Lions plus the points against the USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl, as there is much to prove in this one. The Big Ten's step-kid that was left out of the College Football Playoff, even after winning the the championship, is now going to prove it should have been involved.
Ohio State gets blanked by Clemson, and the Nittany Lions now have an even bigger chip on their shoulders.
Penn State's James Franklin will let quarterback Trace McSorley loose on USC's secondary, as I expect a blowout by huge proportions. Add in Nittany Lions running back Saquon Barkley and receiver DaeSean Hamilton, and this could be ugly by halftime.
I know USC quarterback Sam Darnold has been red hot, but he'll be facing a tough Penn State pass rush that can chase quarterbacks. How good is this defense? How about 18 different players producing 39 sacks this season, led by defensive ends Garrett Sickels and Evan Schwan. Penn State creates pressure without blitzing and out of nowhere will bring additional rushers from anywhere on the field to cause problems.
Take the Big Ten step-child here.
1* PENN STATE
Scott Rickenbach
Towson vs James Madison
Play: Towson
What is wrong with the Dukes? They are 3-11 on the season after going 21-11 last season – another solid season under head coach Matt Brady. Therein lies the problem! Brady was surprisingly let go last season (after 8 seasons with James Madison) and his replacement, Louis Rowe, is in his first season as a head coach. The results have not been pretty and, though the Dukes are off of back to back back wins, they truly haven’t “turned the corner” just yet. The reason James Madison has won two straight after a 1-11 start is because they played an out-classed Eastern Mennonite team and then shot “lights out” against Drexel. Every team has a hot shooting night once in awhile but the long-term numbers tell the “full story” with the Dukes. James Madison had been held under 41.8% from the field in 7 of their first 12 games this season. The Dukes defense is also a concern as they are allowing 43.4% on the season while Towson is allowing only 39.8% from the field. We are getting some line value here because the Tigers are 0-4 ATS (and 1-3 SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Dukes. The fact is Towson has the upper hand now with a huge coaching edge, Pat Skerry in his 6th season with the Tigers, and they’ll be looking to make up for past struggles at James Madison. Simply put, the Dukes are still in a state of flux after the coaching change. Look for James Madison to drop to 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season while the Tigers improve to 14-6 ATS when playing with one day or less of rest.
Brandon Lee
Thunder +2
I like the value here with OKC as a small road dog against the Bucks. Milwaukee will be returning home from a 4-game road trip that concluded with a 20-point blowout win over the Bulls on New Year's Eve. I see this as a big flat spot for the Bucks, who have to turn around and go to New York for a game on Wednesday. Thunder keep finding ways to win behind the sensational play of Westbrook and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18. Milwaukee is just 20-44 ATS in their last 64 off an upset win over a division rival and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after winning 2 of their last 3.
Jack Jones
Auburn vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -1½
It’s a simple fact that if Oklahoma would have scheduled a few cupcakes in the non-conference instead of Houston and Ohio State, they probably would have gone 12-0 and made the four-team playoff. They clearly weren’t hitting on all cylinders in the early going, but those two losses awoke them, and they have been dominant ever since.
Going a perfect 9-0 in Big 12 action is no small feat. And not only have the Sooners run the table, they have been dominant along the way. They were only outgained once in conference action all season, which came in a 56-28 beat down of West Virginia in which the Mountaineers racked up a bunch of yards in garbage time with the game decided already.
That win, plus a 38-20 victory over Oklahoma State to close out the season in which the Sooners outgained the Cowboys by 226 yards, were their two most impressive victories of the season. So they come in hitting on all cylinders, and after losing to Clemson in the playoff last year, they want to end the season on a high note with their 10th straight victory.
The SEC was way down this season, and Auburn benefited from that. The Tigers didn’t exactly finish the season hitting on all cylinders like Oklahoma. They were outgained by 16 yards in a 40-29 win at Ole Miss, only beat Vanderbilt 23-16 as 25-point favorites and only outgained them by 45 yards, were outgained by 179 yards in a 7-13 loss at Georgia, and were outgained by 319 yards in a 12-30 loss at Alabama. Those four performances, plus a blowout win over lowly Alabama A&M, were how the Tigers finished the season.
Oklahoma has a massive edge on offense in this one. The Sooners boast QB Baker Mayfield, who finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting after throwing for 3,669 yards and 38 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. Dede Westbrook, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, had 74 catches for 1,465 yards and 16 touchdowns. They have the two-headed monster of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine in the backfield as well.
I would definitely give the edge to Auburn on defense, but it’s worth noting that the Sooners played some great D down the stretch. They held their last five opponents to 28 points or fewer and an average of only 19.8 points per game. Playing in the Big 12, that’s very impressive to give up fewer than 20 points per game over a five-game sample.
Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS after two straight wins by 17 or more points over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two years. Oklahoma is 10-2 ATS vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last two years.
Dave Price
Hornets vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls Pk
We're buying low on the Chicago Bulls today. They have gone just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Bettors are scared to back them, and that's why were are getting them at a great price here as a pick 'em at home against the Charlotte Hornets. I think this is an awful spot for the Hornets because they just played the defending champion Cavaliers on Saturday at home. They will suffer a hangover effect from their 109-121 loss to Cleveland. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.