SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +112 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. Let’s start this off first by noting that the Blues have never played in an outdoor game before and that matters. The background is different, the daylight is different, the ice is different and so is everything else. The Winter Classic is also more of an event than a game so the Blues have to deal with that too. What that means is getting tickets for friends and families, having camera crews and media all over them and dealing with stuff they otherwise would not be required to. That matters too and for further proof of the distractions that come with hosting this event, we’ll refer to past results. In 19 outdoor games since they began on November 22, 2003, the host has won a mere six times so the Blues are up against it before the puck even drops.
Aside from that, St. Louis is not the upper echelon team that it is advertised to be. The Blues “Simple Rating System” has them ranked 17th out of 30 teams. (SRS is a rating that takes into account average goal differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in goals above/below average, where zero is average. Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference.com has written a great explanation of this method).
The Blues are ranked 21st in the league in puck possession in the opposing end. St. Louis has recorded 25, 25, 23, 22, 27 and 27 shots on net in their last six games, which includes games against Philadelphia, Dallas and Edmonton, three teams that rank near the bottom of the league in shots against. St. Louis has not won two games in a row since November 28/December 1. The Blue Notes have lost eight of 13 games since then while two of their five victories came against New Jersey. Lastly, a shaky Jake Allen will also play in his first outdoor game and he’s a goaltender that is fighting the puck in perfect conditions. He’ll now bring his weak save percentage with him to face a team that can score.
Playing outdoors has become an annual event for Chicago. They have played in a bunch of these but we’re pretty sure that they’re looking forward to this one after being whacked 6-1 by Minnesota in last year’s Stadium Series event in Minneapolis. This Winter Classic matchup at Busch Stadium will be the fifth outdoor game for the Blackhawks since 2009 so most of their players, especially the key ones, are quite familiar with this setting. Chicago is healthy and it is hungry after losing four of its last five. However, prior to that minor bump in the road, the Blackhawks picked up 13 out of a possible 14 points while scoring 15 goals in their last three wins. Aside from the usual suspects that make the Blackhawks so dangerous, watch out for Vinnie Hinostroza, an under the radar rookie that has sick talent and that is about to make his mark on the league. Chicago figures to be raring and ready to go here while, the Blues are overvalued and experiencing this for the first time.
Power Sports
Oklahoma City VS. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
OKC did end 2016 by winning and covering five of their last six. The lone loss came by 24 at Memphis. That loss dropped them to 3-14 ATS L17 times as a road underdog of three points or less, including 0-3 ATS this season. They're in that same price range again tonight. On the road, the Thunder are being outscored by 5.4 points per game. They allow 107.8 PPG, which is not good.
Milwaukee has its own "do-everything" star to counter Westbrook. That would be the awesome Giannis Antetoukounmpo, who went for 35-9-7 in the team's 116-96 beatdown of Chicago on New Year's Eve. My numbers call the Bucks the third best team in the East, yet shockingly they've been favored in less than one-third of their games! This is a good value on them at home where they average an impressive 109.6 PPG.
Wunderdog
Auburn vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Auburn +3
Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is 8-9 in Bowl games, and 6-11 ATS, including 3-8 ATS as a favorite. The Sooners have a potent offense led by Baker Mayfield, who threw for 3,669 yards and 38 touchdowns with eight interceptions to go with Dede Westbrook, who caught 74 passes for 1,465 yards and 16 touchdowns. Also, Joe Mixon (1,183) and Samaje Perine (974) combined for 2,157 yards with Mixon averaging 7.0 yards per carry. The Sooners are dealing with the distraction of Mixon's legal troubles, and Westbrook is probable with concussion-like symptoms. Auburn quarterback Sean White missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, but is probable for this one. White completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,644 yards and nine touchdowns with three interceptions this season. Kamryn Pettway has 1,123 rushing yards on 185 carries and seven touchdowns, and Kerryon Johnson has gained 862 yards on 5.0 yards per carry and scored 11 touchdowns. Auburn is 9-3 ATS compared to 6-6 ATS for the Sooners, and the Tigers have covered their last five non-conference games. Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS its last five non-conference contests and 0-6 ATS their last six games at neutral sites. Auburn has allowed 91.4 fewer yards per game than the Sooners defense, and the Tigers have allowed 15.6 points per game compared to 29.7 for Oklahoma. Auburn has covered four straight after a loss and is 4-1 ATS its last five Bowl games.
William & Mary @ Hofstra
Time: Under 158
This is the fourth straight road game for William & Mary, and on the road the Tribe are averaging 66.6 points scoring. The offense looked road weary the last game, scoring 64 points at Northeastern, the third straight game going UNDER. William & Mary is on a 9-1 run UNDER the total, as well as 47-22 UNDER away against a team with a winning home record. Hofstra plays its best defense at home, off a 58-56 win over Delaware at home in its CAA opener on Saturday. They've allowed 58, 64, and 56 points the last three games, and this total is too high.