Free Picks for Monday, January 9th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
CLEMSON VS ALABAMA
PLAY: ALABAMA -6.5
I think the number is right on the nose for tonight’s title game between the Tigers and the Crimson Tide. I’m not quite as sold on Clemson as some, but I also have some misgivings about the Alabama offense. Part of that is no doubt the game plan the now departed Lane Kiffin decided to implement against Washington. But let’s also remember the Tide could only muster one touchdown against LSU during the regular season. In other words, they can be stopped by a good defense and Clemson was pretty damn sharp on that side of the ball in the semi-final shellacking administered to Ohio State.
For me, my opinion is almost entirely based on the market assessment. That’s not a good enough reason on its own to fire a full wager on, and I won’t do so in this game. But I’m still a fan of fading public dogs and it does appear, based on at least the majority (but not all) of my contacts on the other side of the counter, that Joe Public likes the Tigers more than the Tide. I also don’t mind backing Nick Saban when the money is on the line as I believe he’s the best in the business.
I will recommend Alabama minus the points as the side in the title game. But it’s more opinion than anything of substance, so if you happen to be tailing, treat it as such.
Sleepyj
Troy +6
Troy IMO is the better team...My numbers suggest a PK....So I'll grab the points here for sure and I'll even throw down a small amount on the ML....When I broke this down my numbers said Troy -3....Home court for Ga St is -4....So a pk game for me....The things that Georgia st does well, Troy does things that really negate the stat lines...Troy wins a lot of the little areas and that's enough for me to get on them here..Troy has the better rebounding team and assisting team...They also commit few fouls and turnovers...Those 4 areas are key for me and this game isn't that far off from a PK...I know I'm right with the numbers and what I see, but we have to let the game play out...+6 is a very solid number...I won't be shocked of troy wins straight up.
Rocketman
Washington @ Montreal
Play: Washington +100
The Washington Capitals travel to Montreal to take on the Canadians on Monday night. Washington is 25-14 SU overall this year while Montreal comes in with a 25-15 SU overall record on the season. Washington is off to a perfect 4-0 start so far in January. Washington is 5-0 SU last 5 games overall where they are scoring 4 goals per game while allowing only 1.6 goals per game. Washington is allowing only 2.1 goals per game overall this year and 2.4 goals per game on the road this season. Washington is 24-13-2 SU at Montreal since 1996. We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!
Ben Burns
Pelicans vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -4
I successfully played against the Knicks in their last game, a 123-109 loss. That was a difficult spot for the Knicks though, as they'd 'left it all on the floor" in winning at Milwaukee the previous night and were playing at Indiana against a Pacer team which is currently playing well. Tonight's game sets up differently as the Knicks are at home and facing a New Orleans squad which is off three consecutive losses.
Given the home/road records of these teams, this looks like a pretty low line. The Knicks are 11-7 at home. The Pelicans are just 4-13 on the road. The Knicks are 3-1 ATS as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, the Pelicans are 1-4 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.
With the Knicks, who will be looking to avenge a loss at New Orleans, at 7-3 ATS their last 10 off a double-digit loss and 15-5 ATS their last 20, after allowing 105 or more points, consider laying the small number.
Jesse Schule
Thunder vs. Bulls
Play: Over 208
The Thunder will play nine of their next 11 games on the road, and they've lost four in a row away from home. They come into Chicago off a 121-106 home win over Denver, and they've scored over 110 points in four of their last five overall. The Bulls are also surging offensively, they've scored an average of 115 points during a three game winning streak. Jimmy Butler went off for a combined 94 points in Chicago's last two home games, and he should be full of confidence ahead of this matchup opposite MVP candidate Russell Westbrook. The NBA's leading scorer (Westbrook) recorded his 17th triple-double of the season in the win over Denver on Saturday. He's scored 30 or more points in four straight games, and he's averaging 32 points per game on the road this season. With both these teams rolling on offense, I see a high scoring game in the forecast tonight.
Mike Lundin
Dallas vs. Los Angeles
Play:Los Angeles -155
This looks like a good spot to back the Los Angeles Kings as they host the Dallas Stars home at Staples Center Monday night. The Kings are 12-5-1 in their own building on the season and the reeling Dallas Stars, who have lost three straight, have dropped eight of their last 10 on the road.
The Kings are 3-1-0 through their last four games having scored a power play goal in each win. The Stars have surrendered a pair of power play goals in three straight contests to drop their penalty kill success rate on the season to 75.2%.
The teams have split a pair of meetings at Dallas, winning one game each in overtime, but I like the Kings as a solid favorite in this matchup.
Brandon Shively
St. John's vs. Georgetown
Play: Georgetown -7
This is a do or die game for Georgetown. Coach Thompson said his kids have to continue to fight and their elusive first win in Big East play will come. They are sitting at 0-4 in the Big East. Luckily, they face a St. John’s team who they have had success in the past with as many other teams have also. I think this is a pretty good spot for the Hoyas to put up a fairly big number and win by 11-12 points.
The Johnnies are a very young and small guard oriented team. Georgetown has size with their guards and should give the Johnnies problems. St John’s likes to run, but that doesn’t always result in points as they tend to settle for the 3 pointer. Their defense just got torched over the weekend at Xavier and also last week vs. Creighton. While Georgetown is not as good offensively as those teams, they are a well-balanced team on offense and defense. The Hoyas will take away the open 3 and make Saint John’s work for their shot.
Georgetown gets to the foul line frequently and shoot almost 75% as a team. Saint John’s tends to foul a lot as the young kids reach instead of using their feet. At 6’7, the Hoyas Marcus Derrickson could easily be the ‘X’ factor here posing a mismatch.
When laying points, I want a team to be motivated and have a reason to cover the spread. Georgetown knows they can’t let this game get away from them. As a single digit home favorite against St. John’s, the Hoyas are 4-0 ATS since 2011 with wins by 22, 17, 12, and 25 points. The Hoyas are on a 4 game losing streak. Last year, they lost 4 straight and went 3-0 ATS their next 3 games.
Robert Morris transfer, Rodney Pryor, didn’t score a point against Butler. Coach Thompson said he was going to talk with Pryor and I expect him to be fired up here and come away with a big game as Pryor is the Hoyas leading scorer and best 3 point shooter. At the end of the day, I want to side with the more desperate team with more motivation, size, and experience.
Power Sports
Arkansas St. vs. Appalachian St.
Pick: Appalachian St.
Making matters worse for Arkansas State is that they lost outright on Saturday as 5.5-pt chalk at Coastal Carolina. It wasn't that close either as they went down 80-65. They shot just 36.4% from the field. They better get their offense back in gear for this one as Appalachian State averages an impressive 86.2 points per game at home. The Mountaineers are also looking to bounce back from a loss (at home), 76-68 to Arkansas Little Rock.
In fact, Appalachian State has lost three in a row. But two were on the road and one was at TX-Arlington, one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers beat Arkansas State both times last season, including as eight-point road underdogs. Early line movement seems to indicate that the home dog is the sharp side here as well.
Zack Cimini
St. John's vs. Georgetown
Pick: Georgetown
The departure of former key Hoya Isaac Copeland due to transfer left a huge void for the Hoyas after a handful of games. Yet, their defense is still strong and that should be a huge difference at home. St. John's plays a chaotic style of offense that when on is dangerous, but an off game came be just as deadly. Back the Hoyas here to take advantage of an under rated home atmosphere in DC.
Larry Ness
New Orleans vs. New York
Pick: New Orleans
New Orleans Pelicans began their five-game road trip (the team's longest of the season) with a 117-108 loss to the Celtics in Boston on Saturday. Anthony Davis had another dominant performance with 36 points and 15 rebounds, marking the eighth time this season he has scored at least 35-plus points with 15-plus rebounds. However, the Pelicans have won just three of those games and at 14-24, sit in 11th place in the Western Conference (but just 1 1/2 games out of teh final playoff spot).
New Orleans will visit New York's Madison Square Garden Monday night to take on the 17-20 Knicks, who have lost SEVEN of their last eight games after dropping a 123-109 decision to the Indiana Pacers on Saturday. Carmelo Anthony (22.1-6.1) has been bothered by a lingering sore right shoulder but he's playing through the discomfort. However, his 42.0. FG percentage is way off his 45.2 career average (he's never finished below 42.6% in his 15-season career). He's recorded just three double-doubles this season, after posting 22 last season. Kristaps Porzingis (20.1-7.7) recently missed three games with an Achilles issue but has played the last two, scoring 24 and 16 points.
Davis is second in the league in scoring (28.8 PPG), behind OKC's Russell Westbrook, and sixth in rebounding (12.1 RPG) but he needs help. PG Holiday has now been back for 23 games and that has helped (14.5 PPG and 7.1 APG) but a real difference-maker could be in the 7-foot Donatas Motiejunas, who was signed as a free agent on January 3rd. He debuted against the Celtics with 11 points, five rebounds and four assists in 20 minutes off the bench.
The Knicks are hoping to avoid an eighth loss in nine games but with 'Melo not 100 percent (and maybe Porzingis, as well), I want no part of this team which ranks 25th in points allowed at 108.8 per game. The Knicks have lost 11 games by 11 points or more and another big game by Anthony Davis (he's recorded double-doubles in four straight and eight of his last nine), could be all we need to grab the win (over cover). Take the points with the Pelicans.
Jim Feist
Dallas at Minnesota
Pick: Dallas
The two worst teams in the NBA West meet tonight as Dallas visits Minnesota. Both clubs are 11-26 and 20.5 games back of the West leaders. The Mavericks have a decent defense, allowing 100.6 ppg (5th). However, the offense is 30th, averaging 95.2 ppg. Meanwhile, Minnesota has lost four straight and seven of nine. The Mavs have owned this series with the Wolves, covering the last four meetings and 16 of the last 21 in Minnesota. Two bad teams here, but I like the Mavs who have the better defense.
Jimmy Boyd
St. John's vs. Georgetown
Play: St. John's +6½
I like the value we are getting here with the Red Storm on the road against the Hoyas. St. John's comes into this one undervalued after back-to-back blowout losses, but those came against two of the top teams in the Big East in Creighton and Xavier. Georgetown is a team that came into the season way overvalued and got some love for beating Oregon when they were minus their best player.
The Hoyas have started out 0-4 in Big East play and could find it hard to bounce back after a crushing 76-85 overtime loss at home to Butler. Georgetown couldn't hold on to a 3-point lead with less than a minute to play. That was also a very favorable spot for the Hoyas, who were catching the Bulldogs at home fresh off their huge upset win over No. Villanova. This isn't an ideal spot of St. John's playing their 2nd road game in 4 days, but this is a game they can not only keep close but win outright.
The Hoyas are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 at home and a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing their previous game at home. The Red Storm are 30-10 ATS in their last 40 road games off a loss by 15 or more and 12-0 in their last 12 road games after allowing their previous opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field.
SPORTS WAGERS
Alabama -6½ over Clemson
There are many presiding factors affecting our position but what could be the most compelling is how so many analysts and pundits are playing the “Clemson gets another shot at Alabama” angle as the rationale for picking the Tigers. There is also the last image we have of both teams. Clemson was near flawless when they absolutely steamrolled Ohio State by a score of 31-0 while the Tide had 25 negative plays in their chippy 24-7 semi-final win over the Huskies. Furthermore, the Tigers were so close in last year’s final and it’s also hard to ignore or forget how Clemson’s Deshaun Watson sliced and diced his way in, around and over the Tide defense last year while accounting for over 470 yards of offense and throwing four TD passes. The Tigers defense is also a great unit that does not take a back seat to their offense. Combine all that and we can certainly understand the rationale behind taking these points with such a good team. This is without question a deserving Tigers’ outfit that is worthy of every single accolade it has received.
Alabama’s stock is not as high as Clemson's because of its freshman QB, a last-minute change in their offensive brain trust and just way too much drama that raises a lot of questions about the offense. However, the Alabama defense doesn't care if it's a three-ring circus on the other side of the ball. It's ready and able to take matters into its own hands and did exactly that last week when its defense “blew out” the Huskies offense. Alabama’s defense is also anxious to get back onto the field and redeem itself for getting shredded in last year’s championship game. That Tide defense survived a shootout with a lesser Tigers squad last year, and this year they face a bigger threat from an older, wiser outfit that's no longer new to the big stage.
Thing is, Alabama has been preparing for this kind of showdown for almost three years. Being better able to handle an elite "fastball" team, as Saban calls them, has been the driving motive behind a shift in the kind of defense played at Alabama and the kind of players who play it. Alabama has been rebuilt for exactly this moment, to a minor extent via changes in scheme and training regimen, but principally through recruiting. The leaner, faster athletes the Tide defense has been stockpiling for the past couple years are now in the starting lineup and this game is the payoff for that evolution. Swallow the points and enjoy the game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +110 over MONTREAL
OT included. The Bell Center will be alive tonight in welcoming home their heroes, who have been on the road since December 22. A successful seven-game trip that started with a 2-1 loss in Columbus and ended with a 5-3 victory over the hated Maple Leafs on Saturday’s featured game on Hockey Night in Canada gives these passionate fans plenty to celebrate. Aside from that aforementioned loss to Columbus, Montreal picked up points in every other game of said trip. All in all, the Habs picked up 10 out of a possible 14 points and every single team in the league would be thrilled to match that output during a seven-game trip.
However, Montreal also returns home all banged up and having to put together a makeshift lineup. On Saturday night, the Canadiens were outplayed by Toronto but the Habs received goals from several unlikely sources (Artturi Lehkonen, Nikita Scherbak and Michael McCarron) while Fredrick Anderson was shaky all night. Montreal has allowed 36, 42 and 41 shots on net in three of their last four games with 27% of those shots being of the high danger variety. The league average for high danger shots is 16%. Montreal has to fight the “returning home from a trip” angle and they have to do it without their best lineup. The Habs also head right back out to Winnipeg for a game on Wednesday so the schedule makers had no pity on them whatsoever. The Washington Capitals need no introductions and likely won’t have any pity on the Habs either.
Calgary +109 over WINNIPEG
OT included. You wouldn’t know it unless you looked deep into it but the Flames are coming off a stretch of dominating performances. Calgary’s 4-2 loss to Vancouver on Friday was one of the more dominating performances of the year with nothing to show for it. Calgary outshot Vancouver 46-13 and lost. The Flames have allowed a mere 13, 18 and 14 shots on net in three of their last seven games and under 29 in all seven. Calgary’s defense is playing at a high level and so is their balanced offense. If their goaltending holds up, there’s a great chance to cash this ticket because there’s a greater chance that the Flames will outplay the Jets.
If you are not aware of who the Jets are, let us inform you. Winnipeg is a great team when everything is going well. Give them a 2-0 lead or a few wins in a row and they play with heart, intensity and focus. The Jets are loaded with quality players, especially up front but as soon as adversity strikes, this team transforms into a weak-minded, mistake prone, undisciplined, beatable group. The Jets are likely to take on that persona here because they lost Patrick Laine to a concussion and also lost their last game in Buffalo. The Jets also return home from a three-game trip that included two games in Florida. Winnipeg is 10-9 at home. For a team with so much talent, that is a weak record. Winnipeg is very simply a team you don’t want to get behind when the going gets tough because of their “woe is me” mentality. Unstable goaltending, far too many penalties and mistakes galore when things aren’t going well make the Jets instafade material when they’re favored. Calgary is a hungrier and more focused bunch that plays like they expect to win.