Wunderdog
Oklahoma City @ Chicago
Pick: Oklahoma City +1
Oklahoma City is eighth in the NBA in scoring and coming off a blowout win over Denver 121-106, part of a 7-3 spread run. Russell Westbrook had another triple-double with 32 points, 17 rebounds, and 11 assists, while Steven Adams chipped in 16 points and six rebounds. The Thunder are 12-3-1 ATS after allowing 100+ points, plus 12-4 ATS after scoring 100+ points. They head to an up and down Chicago team that is #23 in points scored. The Bulls are on a 6-13 ATS run, including 2-8 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record.
David Banks
Clemson vs. Alabama
Pick: Over 50.5
It’s exactly what college football needed – a national championship game rematch. Alabama, 14-0, winners of the SEC again, and defending national champs will face ACC champion Clemson in a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff national championship. The Crimson Tide opens as a favorite after having advanced to their second consecutive title game with a 24-7 manhandling of Washington in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Clemson advanced with a surprisingly easy 31-0 win over Ohio State in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl.
Alabama brings one of the most dominant teams in the history of the game to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Crimson Tide defense is absolutely phenomenal. Head coach Nick Saban’s unit gave up just a touchdown to Washington, a team that was averaging over 42 points a game. The Tide was able to contain Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson for about a half in last year’s title game. Watson torched Alabama for 405 passing yards and Clemson gained a total of 550, an amount unheard of against Alabama. If that happens again, Clemson might have a chance at the upset.
The Tigers played very well in the semifinal win over Ohio State. Watson threw for one touchdown and ran for two more. Running back Wayne Gallman gained 85 yards and scored a touchdown. What was most impressive was the Tigers’ defense. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables’ unit allowed just 215 total yards to a very good Ohio State offense that averaged nearly 500 yards per game. Venables will have to turn up the heat against Alabama.
The Tide average over 40 points a game with freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts leading the way. In their semifinal win, it was running back Bo Scarborough who set a Tide bowl rushing record with 180 yards against Washington. Alabama has two very capable receivers in ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley and Damien Harris is the team’s leading rusher with 1,016 yards.
Jim Feist
Alabama vs. Clemson
Pick: Over 50.5
Alabama's is 19-6-1 over the total at neutral sites with plenty of offensive talent. This Clemson team which has speed everywhere and an experienced, talented mobile QB in 6-3 junior QB DeShaun Watson (37 TD, 15 INTs, 3,914 yds passing, 529 rushing, 4.1 ypc). The Clemson offense is #13 in the nation in yards (506 pg), #7 in passing (332.6), and #15 points (40.2 pg). The Over is 5-1 in the Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Clemson had 550 yards in last year's meeting, Alabama 473, and Clemson had the edge in rushing yards 145-138.
Alex Smith
Calgary at Winnipeg
Play: Under 5.5
Winnipeg returns home after a three-game road trip where the club picked up two wins against Tampa Bay and Florida but suffered a giant loss when star rookie Patrik Laine was blindsided in Saturday's 4-3 defeat to Buffalo and is now out indefinitely with a concussion. The 18-year old phenom led the club with 21 goals (3rd NHL) and without both their best forward and top defenseman, Tyler Myers, who is sidelined with an upper-body injury, the rest of the Jets line-up will need to step up in a big way. Calgary just split a home-and-home affair against division rival Vancouver and have now won four of their last six games on the road as well as holding a 5-2 mark in their last seven overall. The Flames have also won five of their last seven meetings with Winnipeg and the Jets are just 2-5 in their last seven home games. It's never easy to come home after a long distance trip, but now that Winnipeg is seriously short handed without their young star, this is a really tough task against a fast and similarly physical Flames unit. At a solid plus price tag, this is a ripe spot to pick Calgary this evening.
Harry Bondi
Clemson / Alabama Under 51
Everybody remembers that last year’s National Championship game ended with Alabama winning 44-40 and thinks it was a shootout, but what most people tend to forget is that it was a 14-14 game at the half and that 40 points were scored in the fourth quarter alone. Tonight, we expect both teams to lean on their defenses and running game and the game will be played much more like last year’s first half than its wild fourth quarter. Also, keep in mind that this year’s game is being played on grass rather than a fast, artificial surface and these two teams have combined to go 14-7 to the under when playing on the real stuff.
Brad Wilton
After their 3 game uptick that saw them win at Syracuse as the double-digit underdog, win at home as the big dog against Butler, and win on the road as the favorite at DePaul, St. John's has been cooled with losses to conference-rival Creighton (no shame there) and at Xavier by double-digits.
Look for the Johnnies to step up in D.C. tonight and give a competitive effort against the back-sliding Hoyas.
Georgetown is on a 4 game straight up and against the spread losing streak, and they may very well come into this home game a little over-confident after crushing the Red Storm by 20 in the first meeting in New York, and by 25 at home.
I am sure Chris Mullin will "gently" remind his team of those results and you will see a more combative effort tonight in this conference battle.
Take the points as both teams are desperate for the win, and it stays close until the end.
4* ST. JOHN'S
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the New York Knicks, at home against the New Orleans Pelicans, who continue their longest road trip of the season with a quick stop to Madison Square Garden.
The Pelicans lost on Saturday in Boston, 117-108, can now catch a Knicks team that has lost seven of eight after falling to the Indiana Pacers, 123-109, on Saturday. I'm not too worried about the skid, however, as the Pelicans are one of the worst road teams in the league.
The Pelicans, who have lost 13 of 17 with a suitcase in hand, have one of the best big men in the league - if not the best - in Anthony Davis. He is second in the league in scoring (28.8 ppg), and is a dominant force in the paint. But he's a one-man show that cannot defend everyone.
And when New Orleans is facing a team with multiple scoring threats, like these Knicks with Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick Rose, it can pose a problem.
I know Anthony has been bothered by a sore right shoulder, and it's affecting his shooting and scoring ability, but he has options with a better supporting cast than Davis.
The home team has won five straight in this series, while the straight-up winner in this matchup has covered 10 in a row. I think the Knicks win.
1* KNICKS
Brett Atkins
Look for the points to ring up in Chi-Town tonight when the Thunder and the Bulls lace 'em up.
Oklahoma City enters Monday action having played Over the total in each of their last 3 games. The Thunder scoring 112 points or better in all 3 of those games, while allowing 106 or more in all 3. Defense clearly not a top priority right now for Billy Donovan's crew!
Chicago has landed Over the total in 4 of their last 5 games, as the Bulls have netted triple digits in 4 of those 5, and also allowed triple digits in 4 of the 5. Defense also not a top priority for Coach Hoiberg's team these days.
Time to sit back and watch Russell Westbrook and Jimmy Butler put on a show in the Windy City this Monday night.
Thunder-Bulls Over the total.
3* OKLAHOMA CITY-CHICAGO OVER
Brandon Lee
TWolves -4
I'll admit it's tough to trust this Minnesota team after all the double-digit leads they have given up this season, but that can only go on for so long. I look to see a big time effort here from Minnesota at home, as they try to snap a 4-game losing streak and rebound from a 92-94 home loss to the Jazz. Dallas is finally healthy, but this is still one of the least talented teams in the NBA and are a miserable 4-15 on the road this season and fresh off a 15-point home loss to the Hawks.
Dave Price
Arkansas State -5
Arkansas State is 11-5 this season with three of its losses coming on the road to TCU, Minnesota and Alabama. The Red Wolves have actually beaten Georgetown on the road and UT-Chattanooga on a neutral court. I think they bounce back from their worse loss of the season at Coastal Carolina on Saturday. Now they get to face an Appalachian State team that is just 5-9 on the season and coming off 3 straight conference losses all by 8 points or more. Their 5 wins have come against Warren Wilson, Hartford, Montreat-Ander, James Madison and Hampton. The Red Wolves are 59-39 ATS in their last 98 games off a loss by 10 points or more. The Red Wolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Ray Monohan
Clemson vs. Alabama
Play: Over 51
Sometimes there is nothing wrong with a rematch. Last year's title game won by Alabama was one of the better ones in recent memory with Deshawn Watson almost single handedly leading Clemson to victory.
This time around it looks like he has a lot more help on both offense and defense giving Clemson a great chance to win their second ever national title.
Alabama is certainly not going to roll over though. They once again have the best defense in the nation and their offense, even though it is led by a true freshman quarterback is as diverse as any in the country.
Jalen Hurts has answered every test but this will definitely be his greatest one yet. Clemson has terrific defensive talent too.
All season long there was rumblings that Watson might have peaked last season. He was much more of a running threat last year for sure but this season he has already thrown for more yards and touchdowns than a year ago with one more game to play. Is this a sign of maturity?
Want to improve his draft status? Who knows but I am confident he will put his legs to good use against Alabama.
Both teams breezed through the semi-finals with Clemson especially having an easy time of it. That kind of performance can't not influence bettors so maybe there is some value on the Alabama side who was workmanlike in their win over Washington. Makes for some interesting hedging opportunities.
Some trends to consider: Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games in January. Over is 3-0-1 in Crimson Tide last 4 vs. ACC. Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Last year's game was a thriller but I think this one might be more predictable.
Bama has been beating up on teams all season and are tough to stop once they get rolling.
Jack Jones
Georgetown -6.5
The Georgetown Hoyas will be highly motivated tonight for their first conference victory of the season. They have opened with a brutal schedule thus far with road losses to Marquette and Providence, and home losses to nationally ranked Xavier and Butler. All four losses came by 10 points or fewer, including an OT loss to Butler on Saturday, so they have been competitive in every game.
The Hoyas dominated the Red Storm in both meetings last season, winning 92-67 at home and 93-73 on the road. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Red Storm are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Georgetown.
The Hoyas are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Monday games. Georgetown is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. The Red Storm are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. St. John's is 0-6 ATS off a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last two seasons.
Bruce Marshall
South Alabama/Georgia Southern Over 150.5
Georgia Southern has been on fire the past few weeks, scoring 84 or more in four straight games, paced by red-hot soph G Tookie Brown, who has scored 20 or more in five straight games. Combined with some of South Alabama's defensive deficiencies, we like the chance for the Eagles to get "over" for a fourth straight game.
Vegas Butcher
New Orleans Pelicans +4
These teams met not too long ago with the Pelicans dominating the play with an average lead of almost 8 points throughout. Now they've added Motiejunas to the mix, who will only make their bench even deeper. Besides NY's inability to defend Davis, Pelicans' second unit is much better than New York's. The Knicks are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights (albeit with a rest day yesterday) and their 7th game since December 30th. By comparison, this is only New Orleans' 5th game in the same time-span, which is a big difference. I expect a very close contest here and will grab the points tonight.
Bruce Marshall
St. Johns at Georgetown
Pick: St. Johns +7
After finally gaining some momentum in December following a slow break from the gate, JT III's G'Town has been slumping again, losing its first three out of the chute in Big East play. The Hoyas are still looking for a reliable third scoring option behind Gs Rodney Pryor (19.8 ppg) & L.J. Peak (15.6 ppg), with 6-10 C Jessie Govan (just 10 pts. total last two) slumping at the wrong time. Chris Mullins' St. John's not the pushover it was a year ago, thanks in part to frosh diaper dandy Gs Shamorie Ponds (17.6 ppg) & Marcus LoVett (17.1 ppg) Play St. John's