Free Picks and Premium Monday, November 14th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Randall the Handle
Bengals (3-4) at Giants (5-3)
Another AFC North team takes on a NFC East squad and, as noted above, that hasn’t worked out very well this year for the AFC side. Both teams tricky to figure out at times, but the Giants are hot right now (three straight wins) and this is a cheap price to pay against a Cincinnati team that has not covered a spread this year in five tries when traveling. In addition, Cincinnati’s wins have come against losing teams while all losses have occurred against teams that were above .500 when they met. For the Giants, QB Eli Manning has rekindled with WR Odell Beckham and the tandem have produced five touchdowns in the G-Men’s previous three games. While the Bengals’ defensive numbers suggest aptitude, the secondary has been leaky, causing coaching staff to tinker with lineup this week. Host gets minor nod. TAKING: GIANTS Even
DAVE COKIN
UT ARLINGTON AT MINNESOTA
PLAY: UT ARLINGTON +2
Scott Cross loves playing the role of giant killer. He coached UT-Arlington to some very nice road efforts against major conference opposition last season. The Mavericks earned road wins at Ohio State and Memphis and just missed in an overtime loss at Texas.
Arlington cooled off considerably once Sun Belt play got rolling, and while they got it back together down the regular season stretch, the team had to be disappointed with a third place finish and a second round conference tournament exit.
Last year’s swoon of sorts might end up paving the way for a better result this year. The Mavericks are loaded with experience and they were the runaway pick to win the league in the Sun Belt media poll.
Arlington was less than spectacular in its opening win against Texas Southern, but they were good enough to win. I would expect them to step up their play as they head into Big Ten country.
Minnesota went wire to wire in an easy win over UL Lafayette on Friday. But the stat sheet displayed a few numbers that might indicate this was more a case of the Ragin’ Cajuns having a very bad night as opposed to the Golden Gophers dominating. Minnesota had all kinds of trouble keeping ULL off the offensive glass and the Gophers also committed 19 turnovers. Maybe that’s just a cloud in the opening night silver lining, but similar numbers tonight and Minnesota will be hard pressed to win.
This game figures to be one of the best on the Monday slate in terms of being a battle. But I like the considerable edge in experience on the road team’s side, and I have the Mavericks as the stronger squad. Given their track record of success in games like this from last season, I don’t have a problem backing UT-Arlington tonight.
Sleepyj
E Tennessee St.-12
Very possible this game gets ugly for Detroit...A team that fails to defend and a run and gun offense will be facing a decent defense...It looks like a ton of points, but i feel for good reason....I have ETSU ranked 127 spots higher than Detroit....It doesn't add up...The rosters don't add up, nor do the players..Early season, but my number for this game was -18....It might drop due to the lack of knowledge on this ETSU team, but I trust my work here..The line is almost correct, but it might go the wrong way for the bettors here...I'll lay it.
Rob Vinciletti
Georgia St vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -7½
Auburn opened up with a solid win on Saturday and have plenty of scoring here as they welcome in 3 new starters that can shoot. They have done well historically vs Sun Belt teams winning 15 of 18 and covering 2 most recent games. Georgia St. Clobbered a cream puff at home on Saturday but now they travel into a tough SEC Road venue. The Panthers are 3-11 vs SEC teams and 0-6 to the spread more recently. The Panthers have failed to cover 12 of the last 14 as a dog, and 8 of 11 after scoring 80 or more last out. Look for Auburn to get the win.
Matt Josephs
College of Charleston vs. Coastal Carolina
Play: Coastal Carolina +5½
Coastal Carolina has their home opener as they take on Charleston. The stats are skewed a bit for both teams. The Cougars won 81-68 in their opener against the Citadel in a game that featured a ton of possessions because of the Bulldogs style. Coastal lost on the road at Alabama in a lower scoring game 70-53. They have been a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points just once since 1997. Now those numbers are skewed a bit since they have just 47 games against the spread overall. Charleston is 6-17 ATS the last three years as a favorite. I think this is a bit too many points for a tough home field advantage to get.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
The 5-4 Rockets are now James Harden’s team with Howard moving on to Atlanta. The All Star guard is averaging 30.0-8.0-13.0 and is hopeful that his backcourt running mate, Patrick Beverley, will finally be ready to join him this week. Beverley underwent left knee surgery during the preseason but is set to return this week. He practiced on Friday and completed a light training session on Sunday. Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni declared Beverley out against the Philadelphia 76ers for tonight’s game but chances appear good that Houston will get a backcourt boost either Wednesday or Thursday. "Can't wait to play, can't wait to get back with my teammates," Beverley said. "I've missed them a lot. I've missed being on the road a lot, I miss the team camaraderie a lot. I miss playing basketball, I miss competing so I'm excited to get back this week."
The 1-8 76ers know all about being hamstrung by injuries, as they opened the season without veteran guard Jerryd Bayless (wrist) plus young forwards Nerlens Noel (knee) and Ben Simmons (foot). They have also been managing the minutes restrictions on centers Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid. Embiid is getting about 22 minutes and averaging 18.8 & 6.6. Okafor has come off the bench and in 19 minutes, has averaged 11.3 & 3.9. Veteran forward Ilysova (12.3 & 4.7) has been an excellent addition but the bottom line is, Philly averages 96.4 PPG (28th), while allowing 108.2 PPG (24th). That’s not a good combo.
Friday's 109-105 OT win at home over the Pacers snapped a streak of 44 straight losses in the months of October and November but Philadelphia climbed right back on that ‘losing train’ on Saturday, falling 117-96 in Atlanta, as Embiid sat out to rest his surgically repaired foot. Eric Gordon stepped up on Saturday and became the first player other than Harden to lead the team in scoring with 27 points but that effort came in a 106-100 home loss to the Spurs. Gordon’s (at 16.7 PPG, he’s Houston’s second-leadings corer) come off the bench the last three games and with Beverley on the verge of returning, expect that to be his role.
Beverley’s impact is so much greater than the 10.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game he provided last season. Beverley is the team's best individual perimeter defender and his influence on that end of the court has been sorely missed as Houston entered Sunday ranked 27th in defensive rating. Philly has lost all three road games this season by 16, seven (in OT) and 21 points, so I want no part of them here, with Houston coming off a home loss Saturday. The Rocket have won the last five in this series and win No. 6 in a row comes “with room to spare!”
Jim Feist
Nets at Clippers
Pick: Over
The LA Clippers started the season with the best record, 9-1 S/U. They are outscoring their opponents by 15.1 ppg and have the league's stingiest scoring defense (91.9 ppg). Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 4-5 to start the season. The Nets are allowing 107.6 ppg (22nd in the NBA). The one bright note is the scoring, way up from last year at 106.3 ppg. It's not hard to understand why the Nets are 6-1 O/U in their last seven away games. The last 10 meetings between these teams in LA has resulted in eight overs. Line is a bit high for me, so I'm taking the over in this one.
Dave Essler
NY Giants +1
Yes, the Bengals have had a bye week. Yes, Cincinnati appears to, at least early Monday - be the "cool" side. However, this is Marvin Lewis and the Bengals in prime time on the road. Yes, they have A.J. Green. New York has a decent wideout, too. Yes, neither team can run but the Giants have a better run defense and are playing better third-down defense. Cincinnati hasn't won on the road. The only game they ran well was against the Browns. And so forth and so on. I don't "trust" either one of these guys - but at home they're 3-1 and overall are on a little three-game win streak. I'm not betting the farm, but perhaps a chicken or two.
David Banks
Bengals at Giants
Pick: Over 47.5
The Giants and Bengals have met only nine times in the history of the NFL. The Bengals hold a commanding 6-3 lead, but the teams have split the last four meetings. The two teams haven’t played since 2012, a 31-13 Bengals victory at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. This time though, the teams meet at MetLife Stadium where the Giants are 4-1 thus far this season.
New head coach Ben McAdoo has the Giants 5-3 and a real contender for a postseason berth. New York has won its last three games in a row thanks to an improving defense. Last season, the Giants were at or near the bottom of each defensive statistical category. McAdoo has helped to change that this season. The Giants are tenth in the NFL in scoring defense giving up 20.5 points per game.
Veteran quarterback Eli Manning and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. continue to form one of the NFL’s most dynamic passing combinations. Manning is completing 64.4 percent of his passes and has 2,241 yards and 12 touchdowns. Beckham has five of those scores and has caught 44 passes for 676 yards. The Giants continue to struggle in the running game. They are dead last in the NFL averaging just 68.3 yards per game on the ground. The team’s leading rusher, Rashad Jennings, has just 186 yards on the season.
The Bengals, 3-4-1, haven’t had things go their way for much of the season. A lot of it has to do with their schedule. Their four losses are to four of the better teams in the league – Pittsburgh, Denver, Dallas, and New England. The Cowboys and Patriots have the NFL’s best record at 7-1. Cincinnati also has the luxury of a bye week and extra time to prepare for the Giants.
Teddy Davis
Grizzlies +6½
While the Jazz are coming off an impressive 5 game road trip winning 4 of those games and covering 4 of 5, this is simply a very difficult spot here. This will be the Jazz 6th game in 9 days and first after the road trip which I mentioned. This will only be the Grizzlies 3rd game in 7 days and are now healthy to go for tonight. The Jazz are battling injuries themselves as Favors and Hill are very questionable.
Brandon Lee
76ers vs. Rockets
Play: Over 214½
I know this is a big total, but this matchup screams for a high-scoring game that ends up in the 220's. The 76ers have been more competitive than people thought they would be, at least win Embiid plays, but one thing that has carried over from last year is their poor play on defense. Philadelphia has allowed 100+ points in each of their 9 games this season. Now they face a Houston team that comes in averaging 107.0 ppg and scoring nearly 5-points more than what their opponents typically allow (76ers are giving up 116 ppg on the road). The Rockets have only played 3 teams who rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency and in those 3 games have scored 114, 118 and 114 points. The other key here is Houston doesn't play much defense, as they are allowing 106.7 ppg. I don't see a ton of effort on defense here in a game that figures to have both teams running up and down the floor.
Jimmy Boyd
Magic vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -7
This might seem like some value with Orlando catching a big number against a Pacers team that has lost two straight and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games, especially with the Magic fresh off a 119-117 win at OKC as a 9.5-point dog. I'm just not buying that performance as something Orlando can build on. If anything it puts them in a huge letdown spot here against a hungry Pacers team that is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder to avoid a third straight loss.
One thing to keep in mind with the Magic's win over the Thunder, is that one had a little extra meaning for this team, as they wanted nothing more than to get their new teammate Ibaka a win over his old team. I know Orlando's new coach is the former coach of the Pacers, which could been seen as another big motivator. However, I just don't think the Magic have enough left in the tank here. Not only are they playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this is their 3rd game in the last 4 days.
This is also a Magic team that has been one of the worst in the league to start the season. Orlando is getting outscored on average by 9.1 ppg. Only team worse is the 76ers, who are getting outscored by 11.8 ppg. I just don't see the Magic being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Orlando comes in giving up 108.6 ppg on the road, while Indiana is lighting it up at home at 115.4 ppg. Keep in mind this Magic team is only averaging 95.0 ppg and are 26th in the league in offensive efficiency.
Jack Jones
Thunder vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -2.5
The Detroit Pistons are 4-0 at home this season with four-double digit victories. They are beating their opponents by an average of 17.7 points per game at The Palace. Their defense has been superb as they have allowed just 85.0 points per game on 36.7% shooting at home.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played a home-heavy schedule with seven home games compared to three on the road. They haven't exactly taken advantage of it as they have now lost three straight games coming in, all of which were at home.
Now the Thunder are in an absolutely brutal spot here. They have to travel to Detroit playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 12 days. This team is simply running out of gas, and it is starting to show, especially with their 117-119 loss to the Magic at home last night as 9.5-point favorites.
Detroit is 24-8 ATS as a home favorite over the past two seasons. The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the past two seasons. Oklahoma City is 37-54 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Detroit.
Dave Price
Magic vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -7
The Key: The Indiana Pacers are hungry for a win after losing two straight games coming in. They suffered their first home loss of the season last time out against the Celtics without Paul George, but they are still 4-1 at home this season and should have George back tonight. The Orland MIagic are in a tough spot here as they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. They pulled off a huge 119-117 upset over Oklahoma City on the road last night, and now they're feeling fat and happy and likely won't come back with a good effort here against the Pacers a night later. Orlando is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games following a straight up win, and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS win. The Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Pacers.