Scott Rickenbach
Texas-Arlington vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -2
Even though Minny only won their first game by 12 points, the Golden Gophers led that game by 22 points at halftime before emptying the bench for much of the second half. The significance of that in terms of looking at this game is that UT-Arlington comes from the same conference (Sun Belt) as UL-Lafayette. Now the Mavericks are certainly a better team than the Ragin' Cajuns as the Mavs are projected to be the #1 team in the Sun Belt this season and they returned all 5 starters from last season's team. However, this is still a case of Big Ten versus Sun Belt and the Golden Gophers have improved greatly from last season's disappointing showing. Also, another key factor here is home court for Minny as UT-Arlington barely got by Texas Southern in their season opener. Texas Southern plays in the Southwestern Athletic Conference which is one of the weakest in Division 1 College basketball. That game was at home for Arlington and they only won by 7 points. Now the Mavericks are on the road in a Big Ten venue and they face a Golden Gophers team that made a major statement against a Sun Belt foe when they led 48 to 26 at halftime in their season opener. The Mavs are a good team but Minny is hungry to make an early season statement under head coach Richard Pitino after the disappointment of late season. The Gophers are on a 5-2 ATS run (and 6-1 SU) against Sun Belt conference foes and this line is a very short one.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. GIANTS -103 over Cincinnati
The 3-4-1 Bengals come off their bye with a 1-3 road record thanks to a one-point win over the Jets in the season opener. The market is not putting much emphasis on the Bengals’ other road losses because they occurred at Pittsburgh, Dallas and New England. We can appreciate that but they were still losses and for the most part, they were ugly losses. The Bengals were blown out in Dallas and New England and lost by eight in Pittsburgh. They were damn lucky to tie Washington across the pond after the ‘Skins FG kicker missed a chip shot as time expired. Cincinnati’s three wins this season were against the Jets, Browns and a flat Miami squad in Week 4. Combined, the Jets and Brownies are 3-17 and when the Bengals defeated Miami, the Dolphins were 1-3. Have the Bengals looked anything like the perennial playoff team they have been the past few years? No. Have they done anything this year that warrants them being road chalk on Monday Night Football? Again, no.
The Giants have risen to a 5-3 record thanks to a defense that is playing better and an offense that has been just good enough for the last three games. That’s good enough to remain in the playoff hunt and within striking distance of the surprising Cowboys, who they dealt their only loss back in the season opener. The Giants wins are so much impressive than the Bengals’ victories. Aside from beating the ‘Boys, the G-Men also have victories over New Orleans, Baltimore, the Rams and the Eagles. All of those teams have a shot at the playoffs while the teams that the Bengals beat have no chance whatsoever with the exception of the Dolphins. New York’s three losses occurred at Minnesota in Week 4 (when the Vikes were the hottest team in the league and the talk of the NFL), at Green Bay by seven and against the Redskins way back in Week 3 by just two points. The Giants have won three in a row. They’re in so much better from than the Bengals right now and they have much better results against tougher competition. One could argue that the Giants have not had a soft spot all season long. However, this market is putting way more emphasis on the Bengals past success than the Giants current success and that is something we will look to take advantage of. Perhaps most importantly is that the Giants have considerable positive momentum while the Bengals are still looking for the proverbial on/off switch that does not exist. There's no reason to stand in front of the Giants this week.
SPORTS WAGERS
Albany +15½ over CINCINNATI
Perception is often a driving force behind many markets, perhaps most especially in college basketball where there are 356 teams to choose from. The Cincinnati Bearcats are a household name, regardless of how far they go in the American Athletic Conference or the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. To some, the Bearcats are the perennial eight-seed that sometimes rattle off a few wins before making their usual exit. Last year, the Bearcats were ushered out in the First Round by St. Joe’s in a heartbreaking loss. On a contrasting note, Albany, when they do get in, is seen as the sacrificial lamb for the tournament top seeds to prey upon in the first round.
The Bearcats come in ranked #30 in the country but that ranking may be a little too generous, as four key contributors from last year’s rotation are gone. Farad Cobb was the team’s most dangerous and consistent outside shooter. A trio of losses in the frontcourt will also hurt. Octavius Ellis averaged 9.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks during his senior season. Shaq Thomas was a fellow starter in the frontcourt during his senior season. Thomas averaged 6.1 points and 3.8 rebounds and did a lot of the unnoticed dirty work in the paint. Coreontae DeBerry was the bruiser in the paint. He averaged just 14.7 minutes per game, but was very productive during that time. Perception now becomes the emphasis of this wager.
Albany enters at 1-0 and that 1-0 was attained by virtue of a road win at a Power Conference host in Penn State. This is an outfit that went 24-9 in the 2015-16 season but the market is putting more emphasis on the Danes losing three all-conference guards to graduation in Peter Hooley, Ray Sanders, and Evan Singletary. Enter sophomore Joe Cremo. Cremo, the reigning conference Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year, will now be catapulted from the first scoring option off the bench to the first scoring option in the starting lineup as the leading returning scorer on this year’s team. David Nichols and Dallas Ennema will fill the spots left by Singletary and Sanders. Nichols was impressive in the recent Purple-Gold scrimmage, filling the basket up with 26 points and looking more chiseled than last year, in a year where Head Coach Will Brown said he learned to compete everyday going up against Singletary in practice. The frontcourt could be the strength of the Danes, the place that has been unreliable in the past. The Danes return Mike Rowley and Greig Stire and also bring back a healthy Travis Charles, who missed all but nine games last year with a heart condition. Big things are also expected from big man Jaraan Lands, who averaged 16.1 points and 8.6 rebounds over two years at Eastern Arizona Community College and has the ability to be a “man-child” as Brown tabbed him at this level.
The Danes took it to a #2 Kentucky team on the road and lost by just seven points in the aforementioned campaign. Oh and one other thing, Albany was a three-time defending America East champion until they were summarily knocked off in last year’s tournament, costing them their fourth consecutive NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bid. Albany is an institution dedicated to being competitive on a continual basis.
Cincinnati comes in off a win but that win was against a weaker opponent, as they laid the wood to the Ivy League’s Brown University as a 23-point favorite. Brown finished 8-20 last year. The result of Cincy being successful in covering such a lofty point total has them priced higher than they should be here. The Bearcats are stepping it up in level of competition by several pegs even if the team it is playing is cast as yet another middling mid-major outfit. For Albany, this will assuredly be another day at the office and while the Great Danes may be unsuccessful in beating Cincy straight up, they have the experience in taking on comprehensive competition and we’re suggesting that they’ll come in well under the number here.
Binghamton +14½ over ST. JOHN'S
It has been a rough few years for Binghamton. Since the start of BU head coach Tommy Dempsey’s tenure four years ago, the Bearcats have served as the America East’s whipping boys. Dempsey landed at Binghamton in 2012 after a largely successful seven-year stint as the head coach of Rider. He took over what was, at the time, a disastrous program in desperate need of a rebuild. A series of unfortunate events that started in 2014-15 (star guard and two-time All-AE pick Jordan Reed decided to transfer), (that same year, then-freshman forward Dusan Perovic, who had become a cog in the Bearcats’ lineup, went down for the second half of the season with a torn ACL) and ended last year when junior guard Yosef Yacob missed the season due to a torn labrum. After dealing with the growing pains that are often associated with player development on young teams, many on the roster have now grown into leaders. Senior guard Marlon Beck returns to play as the team’s shooting guard and leading perimeter threat, while junior forward Willie Rodriguez will attempt to become another leader on the court. Those two are set to march onto the floor as starters, heading the most rounded and veteran squad that Binghamton has seen during Dempsey’s tenure. The Bearcats are always getting inflated points because of their poor history but they could win this game outright, just like they did when they beat Cornell, 68-62 in the season opener. Still, this one is all about fading St. John’s.
The Johnnies are coming off a 100-53 season opening victory over Bethune-Cookman, which is equivalent to the Alabama Crimson Tide of NCAAF playing Guelph of the CIS league (Canadian University Football). In other words, put zero emphasis on that Johnnies win. The truth is that St. John’s is a team in big trouble again this year after losing 21 of its last 22 games a year ago. That was Chris Mullin’s first year as coach and this year is not likely to be any better. The Red Storm basically had all new players last year and this year they have to replace half of those minutes with more new faces. Last year’s offense struggled to get into sets, they gave up live-ball turnovers, their three-point shooting was ninth in conference play and their two-point shooting and free throw shooting ranked dead last in the Big East. There are mountains for Chris Mullin to climb, coaching-wise, as he seeks to prove that he is the man for the job of building the St. John’s program into the consistently competitive program the Redmen were in the 80’s and the renamed Red Storm were at the beginning of the century. Problem is, nobody wants to play for the Johnnies and Chris Mullin knows about as much as your Uncle Wolfgang when it comes to coaching college hoops at this level. The Johnnies got blown out regularly last year while allowing 90 or more points an incredible eight times. Last season, the Johnnies lost by 22 to Incarnate Wood and by nine to NJIT. They had one victory the entire year (over UMBC) by more than the points they are spotting here. One cannot spot this many points with the Johnnies and expect to cash their ticket. Upset possibility.
SPORTS WAGERS
Brooklyn +14½ over L.A. CLIPPERS
The Nets have been greatly undervalued so far this year and this is another opportunity to exploit that wrinkle. Most recently, the Nets torched the Phoenix Suns in Phoenix by a score of 122-104, making a mockery of a porous Phoenix defense while entering the game as a five-point pooch. This would not be the first time that Brooklyn would cast a much larger shadow than how they were sized up. This is a Nets’ team that has won three more games outright as a significant pooch against Detroit and Indiana, teams that qualified for the playoffs last year. Brooklyn, though they stand at 4-5, are a team that cannot be taken lightly, as they also lost three more games by no greater than five points against other high echelon competition, including Boston and Charlotte. Without even diving into the rationale of how the Clips are overvalued, Brooklyn is most certainly not given their just due here, as they are a different team with a new lease on life.
The Clippers have hit the ground running, getting off to a searing 9-1 start. Lob City has been foaming at the mouth, most likely chalked up to the way things went down in the playoffs against Portland last year. The Clip Joint are playing like they have something to prove with a healthy cast of superstars back in the fold. While Los Angeles has the firepower and the results to back up the hype, there is no question that you would be paying a heavy price to get a piece of the Clippers stock. The Clip Joint is currently riding a six-game winning streak and they have torched teams like Oklahoma City and San Antonio on the road. The problem is the psychological angle that this game poses for the host. The Clippers are cruising and with their hated rival Memphis coming in on Wednesday, this is a game in which the Clippers can exhale and get ready for their next stretch of games. In their mind, this one is like a day off or a glorified practice. Surely, they can easily dispose of the dishrag Brooklyn Nets, no?
The Nets have already proven on a multitude of occasions this year that no matter who they are up against, they are a formidable opponent. Let us also say that a far worse Brooklyn Nets’ team beat Los Angeles outright last year and lost the remaining two games against the Clips in the 2015-16 season by no greater than 10 points even when they were on the road at Lob City. As a result, what we have here is a classic case of a team’s stock being inflated against an ill-perceived opponent, which opens the door for us to move in.
Pass NHL
Wunderdog
Princeton @ BYU
Pick: BYU -4
The Princeton Tigers are the odds on favorite to win the Ivy League Title, but this is a very huge step up in class taking on BYU. What makes this venue even more difficult, aside from the long trip from New Jersey, is the high altitude, and Princeton certainly is not a deep team. They very well could wilt down the stretch. The Cougars have a built in edge on their home court where they are now 85-65-3 ATS as a favorite of -19 or less. That improves to 60% ATS vs. non-conference opponents. In other words, teams that are not used to playing here. Those numbers become 30-14 ATS when they are not facing a power-5 conference opponent. Too much to overcome here.
Stephen Nover
La.-Monroe +18
Texas is very young with seven underclassmen in the rotation. The Longhorns were less than impressive in their opener beating Incarnate World, 78-73, this past Friday at home. Texas is 5-12 ATS during its last 17 lined non-conference matchups.
Louisiana-Monroe opened with a 96-63 victory against Centenary. This is a huge step-up game for the Warhawks, but they have talent with junior colle
Greg Shaker
Detroit/E Tennessee St. Over 157
Neither team defends the 3 very well and both will be putting them up tonight. ETSU with strong pace especially at home and a good reason why this team is 38-18 OVER on this court. These teams have never met and certainly that is to our advantage as we don't expect any form of intense D in this early season contest. This number has been pretty steady all day but I would expect it to spike higher despite opening as high as it is. You can play this one in full up to 160..
Brett Atkins
My comp play release for tonight comes on the Bengals-Giants to land Over the total.
Both teams have been putting up and allowing the points of late, and I expect that to continue tonight at MetLife Stadium.
Cincinnati has played each of their last 3 games Over the posted total, and they will be facing a New York team that has landed Over the total in 2 of their last 3 games played, and have been Over the total in each of their last 3 home games.
Tonight we have a pair of the most electric receivers in the game in A.J. Green and Odell Beckham Jr. and we have a pair of quarterbacks who aren't afraid to sling it to them in Andy Dalton and Eli Manning.
Look for the some big plays tonight, and look for enough scoring to send this Bengals-Giants game Over the total.
3* CINCINNATI-N.Y. GIANTS OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who play their second consecutive Sun Belt opponent tonight, when they host the Texas Arlington Mavericks.
The only reason this number is so low is because there are certain power ratings that have these teams extremely close. But I don't believe the Mavs can hang with the bigger, more physical Gophers.
I mean, Arlington is a good mid-major, but if the Gophers want to be taken seriously this year this is a game they need to win. These are the types of games they can't afford to lose.
The Gophers have a 7-1 record against the current members of the Sun Belt Conference, and should win this by about six.
4* MINNESOTA
Chris Jordan
As part of ESPN's Tip Off Marathon, the BYU Cougars will entertain the Princeton Tigers tonight, and my money is on the Mormons. This is the season-opener for the Cougars, who enter their 12th season under head coach Dave Rose.
This is also the season-opener for Princeton, which I'm not so sure will be able to handle this trip for its first game of the season. BYU is always a physical bunch, and with the pressure of playing on national TV and in that high altitude, I think the Tigers will struggle to keep up.
I know the line is low because BYU has a young, inexperienced team, while the Tigers come in with a ton of seniors and plenty of experience, but I also know how well Rose prepares teams.
I'll lay the points, as the Cougars get the win and late cover with free throws.
4* BYU
Bob Valentino
My free play for Monday night is on the Oklahoma City Thunder, plus the points on the road, in Motown, against the Detroit Pistons.
While the Pistons' offense has dropped off a bit, I think that could be a problem tonight against an uptempo team like the OKC Thunder, who will be pressing the pace, getting Detroit out on the run, which would limit the team's effectiveness.
Oklahoma City plays fast, and it can beat the Pistons up and down the court any day of the week. Detroit doesn't have a transition guy to push back, and that's where it will be beat tonight.
Take the road pup in this one.
5* THUNDER
Brad Wilton
Monday night comp play release is the Over in the Philly-Houston NBA meeting.
Philadelphia has been a solid Over play this new season, as they hit Texas having played Over the total in each of their last 4 games, and they are on an overall run of 6-1 Over the total their last 7 times on the hardwood.
True, Houston has been Under the total in their last pair of games and 4 of their last 5 overall, but the Rockets have netted 100 points or better in 3 straight and 5 of their last 6, while they have allowed triple-digits in 4 of their last 6 games contested.
Series numbers show Overs in each of the last pair of meetings, and 6 of the last 8 overall when the Sixers and Rockets face one another.
Play the percentages, and look for Philadelphia and Houston to land Over the posted price.
3* PHILADELPHIA-HOUSTON OVER
Buster Sports
Buffalo vs. Xavier
Play: Buffalo +15
The UB Bulls go on the road for their second game of the year and they will play the number 11 team in the country in Xavier. The Bulls had an nice win over in state rival Niagara on Friday and now they go to Cincinnati to play the Musketeers. Xavier struggled against a Lehigh squad but did pull out the victory. The Musketeers have a few problems with suspensions and injury's and they began the season with only eight scholarship players. This depth might be a problem tonight against UB as 4 players scored in double figures and 9 players played over 10 minutes for the Bulls against Niagara. It is obvious that this is a big step up in competition for the Bulls from Niagara. However, if Edmond Sumner and fellow guard Trevon Bluiett get into any kind of foul trouble tonight there is not much down the bench for Chris Mack when he has only 8 guys he really wants to put on the floor. Depth issues for Xavier allows the Bulls a chance in this one. The oddsmaker has Xavier as a 15 point favorite and we believe that's just too many points. Backing our selection is the fact that Xavier are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the Mid-American Conference and the fact that the UB Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Harry Bondi
CINCINNATI -1 over NY Giants
The Giants have won three games in a row, but we think they are a flawed team. In those three wins, the G-Men were outgained by their opponent in two of the games and the running game averaged just 42 yards per game. In fact, the Giants have run for more than 100 yards in a game just twice in their last seven games, which means this offense is becoming more and more one dimensional. The Bengals are in a great situation as they come in rested off a bye and as healthy as they have been all season. The major returnee from injury is Tyler Eifert, the often-injured TE who led the team in TDs last season and has been the key to the team’s success. Dating back to the beginning of last season, the Bengals are 11-3-1 when Eifert plays and just 4-5 when he’s sidelined Take the better, healthier and more rested team at a near pick’em price.
Dr Bob
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
The Bengals have been a team that has averaged only 43.6 total points per game, however, their peripheral metrics show a high-powered offense and soft defense culminating in a team that would average 51.0 total points per game long-term. Andy Dalton has been effective and explosive, averaging 7.2 NYPP ranking him 10th in the league (adjusted for defense), doing it by taking plenty of deep shots averaging 20.0% deep passing rate. The biggest weaknesses of the Bengals all year has been too many sacks taken by the Red Ryder BB-Gun, getting sacked 8.3% of his dropbacks. Fortunately for Dalton, the Giants defense has not been getting pressure on opposing QBs this year, with the 28th ranked sack rate at only 2.9%. Eli and Odell lead an effective Giants offensive attack, with the second fastest tempo team in the NFL and averaging 6.8 NYPP. While the Giants are only averaging 20.1 points per game the offense has been hindered by ball security all year, with a minus 7 fumble differential that has stalled the offense on numerous occasions. The advanced stats model sees more points than expected, so OVER (47) CIN/NYG is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Bengals (+1.5)