Free Picks for Monday, November 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Randall The Handle
Falcons (5-4) at Seahawks (6-3)
Falcons could be regaining their mojo after a 27-7 thumping of the Cowboys last week. It may also help that Seattle QB Russell Wilson is being observed for concussion issues as the crafty QB has his team ranked second overall in the passing game at 267 per game. Additionally, Seattle suffered a huge injury on defense when CB Richard Sherman was lost for the season in his team’s win over Arizona last Thursday. Despite the home team’s issues, prefer that side to an Atlanta team that has just one road cover this season when slipping by the Lions 30-26 as a 3-point road favorite. As visitors, the Falcons were only able to muster up 24 points when visiting New England and Carolina respectively. This trip provides similar competition and until we see a continuous improvement by the Birds, we’ll fade them at this bargain price. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –3
Frank Jordan
Minnesota vs. Charlotte
Play: Minnesota +2
Minnesota is third in the West at 10-6 with half of those wins coming on the road as they head to Charlotte. Minnesota is 7-3 in their last 10 games, but against the East the Timberwolves have struggles with a 2-3 record. Charlotte is great at home with a 5-2 mark, but overall they are 6-9. Charlotte is coming off a win, but just 4-6 in their last 10 games and are 3-3 against the West. Minnesota has been getting 55 points a game combined from their big three Towns, Wiggins and Butler while Charlotte gets a combined 53 points from Walker, Lamb, and Howard. This is a star studded league and this game will come down to the stars and Minnesota's will shine just a bit brighter scoring 65 points against just 54 from Charlotte's in a 106-100 victory for Minnesota.
DAVE COKIN
CALIFORNIA VS WICHITA STATE
PLAY: WICHITA STATE -19.5
There’s not much chance of garnering any bargain when looking to back Wichita State. The Shockers are loaded and would certainly appear to be a team with a legit chance of reaching the Sweet 16 and beyond come March Madness.
California has no such expectations. The Golden Bears can be kindly referred to as a team in transition. The five top scorers from last season’s team have moved on, so has the head coach and this year’s entry figures to be entrenched toward the bottom of the PAC-12.
The new head coach is Wyking Jones. He’s rightfully got a chip on his shoulder. Jones has been a well regarded assistant for many years. But when Cal tabbed him as the successor to Cuonzo Martin, the move was roundly ridiculed. The prevailing sentiment was that Cal was settling for an unproven coach in order to save money. It doesn’t matter what my opinion might be on that subject. W hat does matter is that Jones feels he has a point to prove.
Unfortunately, I see little chance Jones can do much to even throw a scare into these Shockers. Wichita State has looked very impressive out of the gate. The Shockers were extremely impressive in annihilating pretty solid College of Charleston squad last Monday. The 81-63 final was misleading as the game was far more lopsided than that score might indicate.
The field for this year’s Maui Invitational is top shelf. That being the case, I suppose it’s possible that the Shockers could be more focused on what’s coming up in this event while doing simply enough to win on Monday against Cal. But that’s guessing. What’s fact is that on paper this is no contest material. The favorite is senior-laden and I like veteran teams in situations like this as they’re mature enough to treat every game with importance. I’ll expect that to be the case here and will look for Wichita State to blow out Cal today.
Teddy Davis
Clippers vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -1½
Not sure when odds makers are going to start adjusting for how bad the Clippers are, but in no way do I want any part of them. They are going to be without Gallinari and Beverly again. This team has lost 8 straight games and covered just one maybe 2 depending on the line you got vs the Cavs.
The Knicks have been an over achieving team even though they are just one game above .500 Most people thought they would be a lot worse. They defend their home court very well with a 7-3 record and shouldn't have a problem here coming off two days of rest.
Mike Lundin
Clippers vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -120
The New York Knicks took a 107-84 beating at Toronto on Friday, their worst loss of the season. "We realized this game that the energy we get from the home crowd, we're not going to get that on the road," Kristaps Porzingis told reporters after the loss.
The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and tonight they're back home at Madison Square Garden, hosting a slumping LA Clippers side that has lost eight straight and 10 of 11 since beginning the season with four consecutive wins.
This will be the Clippers third game in four nights, which is always a tough spot but even more so in their current state.
Ben Burns
Celtics vs. Mavs
Play:Mavs +7½
Early money is on Boston to extend its winning streak to 16 games, but not so fast. Dallas might be ready to turn the corner after a horrific start and its out-of-nowhere 32-point thrashing of a solid Milwaukee team on Saturday night could be a sign of good things to come as the Mavs adjust to a smaller lineup with Dirk Nowitzki now playing the 5. Boston, meanwhile, has had to dig itself out of double-digit holes in several recent games and coach Brad Stevens is warning that doing that on a regular basis is not sustainable. Dallas looks ripe for a cover in this one as oddsmakers start posting lines that will inevitably eat into the Celtics’ amazing 14-2-1 ATS record.
Jim Feist
Jazz at 76ers
Pick: Over
The 7-10 Utah Jazz travel East to play the 8-7 Philadelphia 76ers. Always tougher on the West coast teams having to travel East. Philadelphia has been a very good play for bettors, going 45-21 ATS their last 66 games overall. Utah is playing its fourth road game on this East coast swing. The Jazz have lost two of the three games with a win last time out at Orlando, 185-85. Philly lost last game out, at 124-116 home loss to Golden State. However they did cover their third straight game as they got nine points. The Sixers have been a decent OVER play, going 8-2 O/U their last 10 and 4-1 O/U their last five vs the West. Philly averages 109 ppg and allows an average of 110.4 ppg. This game should be an over if the Sixers have control of the tempo. That's what I'm betting on.
Will Rogers
Furman vs. Duke
Pick: Duke -22.5
The set-up: Duke was a preseason No. 1 and remains there at 4-0 (new poll released Monday afternoon will confirm). Duke should be a little more focused on Furman (bad news for the Paladins?), after the Blue Devils struggled somewhat to defeat Southern 78-61 on Friday. The Blue Devils made just four 16 of their 20 three-pointers and committed a season-high 15 turnovers, while the bench contributed virtually nothing, combining to shoot 2-of-8 with six turnovers. Furman won its first two contests (at home over Bob Jones and Elon) over but then fell by 17 at Butler. Things won't get easier Monday at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where Duke has won 135 straight non-conference home games!
Furman: Saturday's 82-65 loss Saturday at Butler began a stretch of four consecutive games away from home for the Paladins. Furman comes off a 15-17 season but does return all five starers, so the Paladins have some experience on their side. "Our team is just battle-tested and we've got an old group and we have a group that likes to fight," first-year Furman head coach Bob Richey said. "We have some versatility and we have to use that." The Paladins are led by Devin Sibley, who was voted the So-Con Player of the Year in 2016-17. He's averaging 19 points and 4.7 rebounds and has terrific shooting percentages across the board. The senior guard is shooting 55.3 percent from the floor, including making 9-of-16 from the arc. Another senior guard, Daniel Fowler (13.3 & 5.0), had a team-high 19 points against Butler, while 6-8 junior Matt Rafferty (10.3 & 9.3) set a season high with 11 points in the loss.
Duke: The Blue Devils have four freshmen in the starting lineup but this just in, they are pretty good. The non-freshman starter is senior guard Grayson Allen (21.8 ), who stepped up with a career-high 37 points in a win over the then-No.2 Spartans when freshman sensation Marvin Bagley III (18.0 & 9.3) got hurt against Michigan State. He had posted 25 points and 10 rebounds in the season-opener, then followed with 24 & 10 in his second game. Bagley notched his third double-double (19 & 11) of the young campaign in the win over Southern, while he 6-10 Carter (13.0 & 8 ) sparkled against Southern with 20 points and 11 rebounds. Freshman PG Trevon Duval (12.5) has 34 assists and six turnovers on the season. The team's fourth freshman starter is Gary Trent Jr (12.3 & 6.0).
The pick: The impost is high but lthe Paladins were outclassed at Butler, with their best player (Sibley) limited to 11 points. "Second verse, same as the first," here. Lay it!
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +121 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Preds are coming off an impressive 5-2 win over Colorado but trust us when we tell you that the Preds were the second best on the ice. They mustered a mere 24 shots on net. In fact, Nashville has won five of its last six games so its stock its stock is on the rise again, which makes us instant sellers again. The Preds expected goals for ranks dead last in the NHL. They are not creating high quality scoring chances and are shooting from low percentage areas. They have been outshot in seven of their last eight games and have not won the Corsi battle in 11 straight games. The Preds have been beatable almost every night and now the dangerous and very warm Jets come in with a great chance to win.
Winnipeg has won four straight but perhaps most importantly is that the team has a goalie back there that they can trust for the first time in a very long time. You would be hard pressed to find a goaltender in the league in better from than Connor Hellebuyck. That alone makes the Jets worthy of a play. Goaltending, be it hot or cold is the biggest deciding factor in the outcome of games. The goaltender that plays better usually wins that night and we’re certainly willing to put our chips down on Hellebucyk over Pekka Rinne. We also love that Mathieu Perrault and Adam Lowry are back in Winnipeg’s lineup together. The Jets top-two lines are as good as any top-two in the business and now they have some quality in their bottom two lines as well. The return of those two guys give the Jets more depth down the middle and it matters. A hot team taking back a price with goaltending as good as this is almost always worth a wager and that applies here.
Calgary +125 over WASHINGTON
OT included. The Caps have cashed tickets in five straight home games so this might seem like a short price to back one of the league’s premier franchises, but these are not the Caps of old. Washington has been in poor form almost all season thus, the Caps are will remain high on our fade list. Washington is 25th in puck possession, and it gets worse when you look at its Fenwick For% of just 46.5, good for 29th in the NHL. For many years the Caps were a solid investment at home, where they seldom lost, but they are no longer the sound investment they were as years past. They are now a vulnerable team every time they take the ice because their defense is so much weaker and they don’t have the balanced scoring anymore either.
Winners in six of their last eight games, the Flames are hitting their stride thanks in large part to their power play finally catching fire. We’ve discussed in the past that while power-play goals are a luck based statistic, they do often make the difference between winning and losing in these tight games. Power-play success is all about getting the bounces and Calgary has cashed in on seven on its last 19 chances with the man advantage. However, as the Flames PP is heating up, they still sport the league’s worst penalty killing unit, but PPs and PKs tend to even out over time so a correction to the good is coming in that department. It’s no coincidence that the Flames came to life when their PP starting clicking, as they have averaged four goals per game over their last eight. Calgary was dead last on offense in October when the bounces were not going its way, but the tides have turned. The Flames bounced back nicely with a 5-4 overtime win in Philadelphia on Saturday after getting pounded 8-2 in Detroit three nights earlier. With its downtime between games, Calgary stayed lose by taking part in a 50s style train ride on the team’s trip to Washington for tonight’s game. While it’s hard to track team chemistry and its effect on the game, it can’t hurt that these guys are bonding and having fun on this Eastern roadie. Mindset plays a significant role in the outcome of these games, and the Flames are looking good, feeling good and playing well. If you’re looking for some X’s and O’s, Flames’ star Johnny Gaudreau is on a nine game points streak, and you’ll be shocked to find out when Johnny Hockey is lighting the lamp, Calgary win, as its 8-1 record will attest to when Gaudreau has multipoint nights. A deeper look shows the Flames are a top-10 puck possession team (8th) with a Corsi For% of 51.4 just ahead of the Lightning, who are currently the odds on favorite to win the cup at 6-1. The Flames are close to being an elite team but they’re not priced like it and absolutely have at least a 50% chance of winning here and maybe more.
New Jersey +165 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Minnesota Wild very simply cannot be priced in this range. The Wild are coming off a 3-1 loss to Nashville in a game they were outshot in 43-31 and out-Corsied in too. In fact, the Wild have lost the puck possession time in seven of their past nine games. Against top-10 competition this season, Minnesota is 2-6 and it is 4-7 against top-16 competition. It’s not that the Wild played poorly against Washington because they didn’t. They created some quality chances but ran into some hot goaltending. The bigger issue is that they’ve rarely played a full 60 minutes of quality hockey. On most nights, Minnesota is spending too much time in its own end or getting dominated for stretches at a time.
The Devils are 11-5-3 and holding first place in a stacked Metropolitan Division. After the Devils acquired Taylor Hall in a blockbuster trade last summer, GM Ray Shero went right back to work this offseason. He won the Draft Lottery and was afforded the opportunity to select Nico Hischier with the top overall pick. He followed that selection with a series of deft moves, prying Marcus Johansson (currently out with a concussion) away from a cap-strapped Washington team and winning the sweepstakes for Hobey Baker-winning defenseman Will Butcher.
Hischier, Butcher, and Jesper Bratt make up a trio of very exciting rookies that have all burst onto the NHL scene and have immediately helped make New Jersey a respectable team for the first time since 2012. This team is quick, they’re dangerous and they have solid goaltending too. However, the Devils have lost two straight so the market figures that they’re just going back to their losing ways or that they have greatly overachieved thus far. The Devils pace is probably unsustainable but they’ve lost two in a row and they’re hungry. On Minnesota’s best day, New Jersey would not be an easy out and with 25% of the season already gone, there isn’t a single reason that Minnesota warrants being this big a price against the superior team. Win or lose, this is a grossly inflated price.
Pass NFL
Brandon Lee
Pacers vs. Magic
Play: Magic -3½
I like Orlando to bounce back and cover here at home against the Pacers. The Magic were embarrassed in their last game, losing 85-125 to the Jazz as a 6-point favorite. They simply didn't show up to play against Utah. That kind of loss never sits well with a team and I expect a max effort here against Indiana. As for the Pacers, they are in a prime letdown spot. They have won 3 straight and off an easy 25-point win at Miami last night, but are now playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as well as their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Indiana is just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 when playing the 2nd game on a back-to-back road set.
Chip Chirimbes
Clippers vs. Knicks
Play: Clippers +1
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The once powerful L.A. Clippers come stumbling into Madison Square Garden losing their last eight to face the resurgent Knicks who are 8-7 on the season. New York is 7-3 straight-up and 8-2 ATS at home while the Clippers are just 2-5 on the road. Los Angeles lost Chris Paul to the Rockets and it did not seem to matter as they won their first four games of the season but have won just one of their last 11. Yet, the Knicks are only favored by 1. Don't look right.
Jimmy Boyd
Utah at Philadelphia
Play: Utah +7
I like the value here with Utah catching points against the 76ers on Monday. The Jazz are coming off one of their best performances of the season in a 125-85 road win over the Magic on Saturday and are catching Philadelphia at the right time, as the 76ers are poised for a letdown here after a crushing 116-124 loss at home to the Warriors, where they blew a 22-point halftime lead.
76ers have also struggled in this spot at home against teams who struggle on the road, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jazz on the other hand are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win by more than 10 points.
We also have a great system in play backing the Jazz thanks to their 97-104 home loss to the 76ers earlier this month. Underdogs that are revenging a home loss that are off a road win as an underdog are 95-53 (64%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Mark Franco
Clippers vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks +1½
The New York Knicks are coming off their worst loss of the season but are playing well enough overall to consider that just a blip on the path to contention for a playoff spot. The Los Angeles Clippers, who visit the Knicks on Monday, are coming off a bad loss of their own and are making that a pattern with a slide that reached eight in a row.
New York is 5-1 in its last six home games but looked like a different team on the road as star forward Kristaps Porzingis struggled and the team fell 107-84 at Toronto.
The Clippers aren't finding that energy at home or on the road and are losers of 10 of 11 since beginning the season with four consecutive wins. Los Angeles put up a good fight in the opener of the five-game road trip at Cleveland on Friday before suffering a 118-113 loss and could not find that level of fight while matching a season low for points scored with a 102-87 loss at Charlotte the next night.
Porzingis is averaging 30.1 points on 51.9 percent shooting at home as opposed to 22 points on 38 percent on the road.
Clippers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic and are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Jack Jones
Wizards vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -4½
The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. They should be rested and ready to go, and they'll be extra motivated coming off their worst loss of the season. They inexplicably lost 79-111 to the Dallas Mavericks as 6-point road favorites on Saturday.
The Washington Wizards are banged up right now and have been missing John Wall, losing their last two games to the Heat and Raptors. Wall is a game-time decision to return tonight against the Bucks. I like the Bucks either way, but it would obviously be a huge bonus if he didn't play.
The Bucks had been playing really well prior to that loss to the Mavs. They had won four straight, and all four were the first four games with Eric Bledsoe in the lineup since he was traded from Phoenix. Bledsoe has given them a nice boost and has taken some pressure off of Giannis.
The Wizards are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.