Free Picks for Monday, November 21st, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Randall the Handle
Texans (6-3) vs. Raiders (7-2)
Don’t get fooled by the 6-3 Texans as their record is far superior to their ability. Houston’s offence is about as exciting as a soccer team’s. QB Brock Osweiler has been a bust in his new digs. He currently has a passer rating of 74.1, which ranks higher than only two other quarterbacks being tracked, namely Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blaine Gabbert, both of whom have been benched. Osweiler has just 11 touchdown passes on the year compared to nine interceptions. Scoring just 17.9 points per game, Houston ranks only ahead of the Browns, Rams and Bears. Phooey! Prior to first road win of season at Jacksonville last week, the Texans were outscored 85-22 in three other road defeats. As for the Raiders, they continue to impress. Derek Carr is in the MVP conversation with his 17-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Raiders are strong offensively, getting better defensively and, after a well-earned rest, they should have little trouble disposing of this imposter. TAKING: RAIDERS –5½
Ray Monohan
Houston / Oakland Under 45.5
Monday Night Football is in Mexico City and the Under here holds value.
Traveling and playing in a different country isn't something these teams necessarily want to do. Both teams will have to travel back to the United State immediately after the game and will have a short week to work with. It's not an ideal situation which will have both of these teams looking to shorten the game up and chew clock.
Offensively, neither team is exceptionally explosive either. They'll both work in the run and utilize short yardage plays.
Some trends to note. Under is 10-4 in Raiders last 14 games following a bye week. Under is 10-3 in Texans last 13 games following a bye week.
Both teams will lean on their defenses here in this one. Expect small offensive plays, with neither team really taking a chance down field.
Sleepyj
Ball St -18
It's a bunch of points, but Coppin might need double this amount....I made my number for this game believe it or not at -24.5....So I find some value in the number here...Look Coppin St will challenge for one of the worst records by seasons end...Ball St hasn't had an easy start to the season, but they played some decent schools..Ball St beat St. Louis who is very low in my rankings, but compared to Coppin St, St. Louis is a full 100 spots better...St. Louis got lumped by Ball St. to open the season.....I feel this is men among boys here...Ball St. should have no issues controlling the glass and the inside outside game should be rather smooth...Coppin does very little well and I'm looking at a game at half that looks well in hand..I won't be shocked if Ball St. is very close to cover when the break happens..Ball St rolls. 87-64
Scott Spreitzer
Celtics vs. Wolves
Play: Celtics -2
Boston has Al Horford and Jae Crowder back in the lineup and it showed in a 94-92 win at Detroit on Saturday. Horford finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds and Crowder contributed nine points while Isaiah Thomas led the Celtics with 24 points and eight assists. Boston has the edge on defense as it is #10 in the league allowing opponents to shoot 44.0 percent from the field and Minnesota is #25 at 46.4 percent. The Timberwolves suffered an ugly loss at Memphis by a score of 93-71 on Saturday with only two players scoring in double figures - Zach Levine with 22 points and Karl-Anthony Towns with 17. Andrew Wiggins was only 2-for-11 and scored seven points. The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS their last four games against winning teams and Boston is finally healthy.
Ricky Tran
Grizzlies vs. Hornets
Play: Grizzlies +6½
Memphis On A Roll: The Grizzlies have won four straight games, three of them as underdogs.
The Grizzlies' Defense: Memphis is looking to hold a third straight opponent under 75 points and the Grizzlies have allowed an average of just 67.5 points in their last two games.
Charlotte's Struggles: The Hornets are coming off a 121-116 OT loss at New Orleans. They're 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and the Grizzlies winning streak has put them at 8-5 for the season.
Larry Ness
Houston vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
The Detroit Pistons fell to 6-8 after a third straight loss on Saturday night. Boston’s Al Horford put-back with 1.3 seconds left allowed the Celtics to pull out a 94-92 victory, as Detroit lost for the first time this season at home. The Pistons had been the league's lone remaining unbeaten team at home before Horford ruined the opener of a four-game homestand. All-Star guard James Harden and the 8-5 Houston Rockets will visit The Palace, tonight. The Rockets have to feel good about themselves after winning two straight, including a 111-102 win over Utah on Saturday. Harden had another superb outing (31 points, 10 assists and no turnovers in 35 minutes). He's averaging 28.7 points and a league-high 12.5 assists, to go along with 7.8 RPG. Houston also got a big night from its young center, Clint Capela (11.2-8.5), who contributed a career-high 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists.
The Rockets are also thrilled to finally get guard Patrick Beverley back on the court. Beverley underwent left knee surgery during the preseason and his impact is so much greater than the 10.1 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game he provided last season. He is the team's best individual perimeter defender and his influence on that end of the court has been sorely missed. He’s averaged 25.5 minutes in his two games back, averaging 8.0 PPG and 4.5 APG. Houston also received some big performances from two veteran bench players who signed with the club as free agents this summer Saturday against Utah. Guard Eric Gordon (16.5 PPG) had 20 points, seven rebounds and six assists, while forward Nene (8.5-3.9) contributed 16 points and six rebounds.
Detroit head coach Stan Van Gundy would like extended practice time to work on some of his team's issues but the rugged schedule won't allow it. The Pistons are in a three-week stretch where they play 13 games, with no more than one day off in-between those games. "It's tough," he said. "We've lost three in a row now, six out of eight. We're in a really tough stretch. That weighs on everybody." Van Gundy has hinted at lineup changes to try to create a spark but a busy game schedule may prevent that.
The Pistons were best-known for their “Iron-Five” starting lineup last season and although some names have changed this season, only center Andre Drummond (14.8-13.8 ), has not started every game (he missed one with a sprained ankle). Joining Drummond up front are Harris (16.7-4.8 ) and Morris (14.1-4.4) plus in the backcourt its Caldwell-Pope (12.9) and PG Ish Smith (9.8-6.5 APG). I’m not a big fan of teams overly dominated by one player like the Rockets (with Harden) or OKC (with Westbrook) and the fact remains that the Pistons are 5-1 SU & ATS at home this season, after covering 61% of their home games last season.
Dave Essler
Bradley +5
Bradley was the worst CBB team on the planet last season - but they were also the youngest with the most upside. The turned it over, as you'd expect, more than anyone. This season in obviously limited sample size, they've been much better at protecting the ball. They're best defensive asset to date has been defending the perimeter, which is where Hofstra likes to play. Hofstra lost to Sacred Heart and barely beat Coppin State at home. Bradley has a length advantage and has been playing a deeper bench - Bradley has to be the more confident team since they've won two games already (competition notwithstanding) and they didn't win their third game last season until January 13th. Hofstra lost three starters - including their PG which is always big - Freshman Eli Pemberton has been their one bright (really bright) spot, but when you can't play defense (I don't agree with the total coming down at CRIS) you can't win.
David Banks
Houston vs Oakland
Pick: Over 45
The Houston Texans, who finally won a game on the road this season, will travel to Oakland to take on the 7-2 Raiders. Houston beat Jacksonville last week, the Texans first road win of the season. The win leaves head coach Bill O’Brien and his team at 6-3 and in clear control of the AFC South. Beating the Raiders in Oakland would be a pivotal win for O’Brien, but it will take a cohesive effort.
The Texans have a quality running game led by Lamar Miller who has 720 rushing yards this season. Houston rushed for 181 yards last week in the win over the Jags. If the Texans can do the same against Oakland, they can keep the ball away from a very powerful Oakland offense. Houston QB Brock Osweiler will have to make plays when called upon as he done for the most part of this season.
The Raiders feature one of the more potent offenses in the NFL. Quarterback Derek Carr leads the fifth- ranked scoring offense (27.2). The Raiders are equally adept at running the football and are fourth (124.8 yards per game) in the league. Wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are as good a tandem as there is in the NFL giving Carr two quality targets. Houston will have to get a pass rush from DE Jadeveon Clowney and company to affect the Raiders’ rhythm or it could be a long night in Oakland.
Monday night’s game could be pivotal in the postseason race. The Chiefs took over control of the AFC West by beating Carolina last week. Kansas City, also 7-2, beat Oakland earlier this season so it controls the tiebreaker currently. Oakland needs to keep pace with the Chiefs in order to have a shot at winning the division and gaining an automatic berth to the playoffs.
Jim Feist
Raptors at Clippers
Pick: Under
A pair of outstanding defenses clash as East meets West. Toronto is a long way from home and will lean on its defense, 5-2 under the total when they face the Pacific division. The Clippers are second in the NBA in points allowed, tops in field goal shooting allowed. The L.A. Clippers are 35-17 under the total at home, 13-5 under against the Eastern Conference, plus the 21-6 in the Clippers last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. And when these teams clash the under is 11-2 in this building.
Brandon Lee
Warriors vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +13
I'll gladly back Indiana as a massive double-digit home dog against the Warriors tonight. The Pacers come in off an impressive 115-111 win at OKC yesterday as a 9.5-point dog. Now they return home, where they are 6-2 on the season. Golden State on the other hand will be playing their 4th straight on the road in a span of just 6 days. Indiana has gone 31-18 ATS over the last 2 seasons against teams with a winning record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when facing an upper-level team that's won more than 60% of their games. Warriors are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 when facing a team that allowed 100+ points in their previous game.
Matt Josephs
Illinois State vs. TCU
Play: Over 135
I'll bite on this one as I think this total is just a bit low. You've got two teams that play good defense, but TCU has been hard to slow down all year shooting 52.8% from the field while scoring 86.3 points per contest. The Horned Frogs have a pretty deep roster and added a few players last week. Illinois State has been lower scoring, but with a close contest expected, fouls could come into play. ISU has gone over in 17 of their last 27 games as an underdog. Last year these two played a 71-60 game on a neutral court, but I think we can expect more points in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Grizzlies vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -5½
I'm going to back the Hornets to win by at least 6 at home against the Grizzlies on Monday. Charlotte will be locked in for this one after losing last time out at New Orleans. Memphis comes in having won 4 straight and off a couple blowout wins over the Timberwolves and Mavericks, which I believe has them overvalued here. This is a tough spot for the Grizzlies, who will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days, as well as their 5th road game in the last 10.
Even with Memphis' strong play of late, they are still getting outscored overall on the season, as they come in averaging 96.8 ppg and are giving up 97.0 ppg. Charlotte on the other hand is outscoring opponents by 4.6 ppg overall and 6.6 ppg at home. Note that the Grizzlies are -4.5 ppg when playing on the road.
The Grizzlies fall into a key system here, as favorites off a game where they scored 105+ points against an opponent that has played in back-to-back games with a combined score of 165 or less are a perfect 5-0 ATS over the last 5 seasons (72% since 1996).
Don Anthony
Miami at Philadelphia
Play: Miami -4.5
The Heat just do not give up triple digits. If that somehow happens, they step up big time defensively the next game. They have allowed over 100 points only twice this season and in the next game, they allowed 94 and 96 (96 was an OT game also.) Miami is 3rd best in the NBA in defensive efficiency but 4th worst in offensive efficiency. Furthermore, they are 23rd in PACE (grades amount of possessions per game.)They are exactly what you look in an under team. The Heat are going up against the 2nd worst offensive efficient team tonight in the 76ers, who have a horrendous team FG% and FT%. If Miami gives 100% effort tonight, they should completely shut down the woeful 76ers.
Wunderdog
Phoenix @ Washington
Pick: Phoenix +8.5
The coaching change hasn't helped Washington much as Scott Brooks struggles to get his team to play to its ability. The Wizards are also coming off another loss, this time 114-111 at home to Miami. The Wizards defense broke down again and allowed the Heat to shoot 50.6 percent overall and 48.1 percent from three-point range. John Wall and Bradley Beal did their part by scoring 34 points apiece but Marcin Gortat was the only other player in double figures with 10 points. The Wizards are 4-8 ATS this season while Phoenix is 8-6 ATS. The Suns enjoyed a big win at Indiana 116-96, but then had a back-to-back and lost at Philadelphia the following night. Phoenix has covered the spread four of the last five meetings and eight of the last 10 in Washington. The Wizards are 1-4 ATS their last five games and showing little if any improvement.