Scott Rickenbach
Penguins vs Rangers
Play: Under 5.5
There will certainly be playoff-like intensity for this game as, not only are these division rivals, these teams met in the post-season last April. The Rangers have revenge from that playoff meeting and New York will have Antti Raanta between the pipes as Henrik Lundqvist is being given the night off after playing in yesterday’s game. While having the #2 guy between the pipes is normally a bad thing, Raanta actually has gone 4-1 this season including 2-0 on the road where he has a stellar .961 save percentage! Look for him to have a big game here as the Penguins also are not that familiar with Raanta like they are with Lundqvist. The Pens have been held to a total of just 5 goals in their last 3 games and the Rangers have been held to just 2 goals in each of their last two games. Also the Rangers have averaged only 2 goals per game in their last 8 games against the Pens. The Penguins lost 2 to 1 at Buffalo Monday and the last 51 times they are off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less, they’ve gone over the total in their next game just 16 times! Look for a hard-hitting, tight-checking, playoff-type match-up between these clubs in their first meeting since last spring’s post-season battle.
Greg Shaker
Texas -2
Forget about Monday Night Football, this is the game I will be watching this evening. Shaka lost a lot off last year's team but Shaka is Smart (No Pun Intended) and he has found some players to replace what he lost, which was a lot. 4 NEW Dribblers are getting 20+ Minutes Per game so far and 3 are scoring in Double Digits. I'm not sure if these guys will serve Shaka well in Conference Play but on this neutral court we say yes they will. The Horns are the more athletic team and they are making it difficult for teams to get good looks (33.5% Shooting, 21.8% from 3) so far this season. One common opponent is Eastern Washington with NW winning by 14 and Texas by 33. There is no reason to read too much into that though. We do have a Lean toward the OVER here but strongly believe the Athleticism which converts to Better D, Better Rebounding + a Stronger Bench will be the difference maker. Let's lay the short number..
Stephen Nover
Colorado +125
Granted, the Blue Jackets are playing well. But that makes them fat and happy. They are in a letdown spot here hosting Colorado after beating the Capitals on the road last night. The Blue Jackets defeated the Rangers at home two games ago. This is their third game in four days. They have Calgary on deck at home on Wednesday and then at Tampa Bay on Friday. So it's going to be tough from a motivation standpoint for Columbus to get excited about Colorado.
The Avalanche can prove dangerous. They are playing well, too, with three victories in their last five games, including a huge road 'dog win in their last game two days ago against the Wild. Star goal scorer Nathan MacKinnon is getting hot and there's a strong possibility the Avalanche get back top goal scorer Matt Duchene, who has missed the past four games with a concussion.
Colorado's first-year coach Jared Bednar was an assistant coach in the Columbus organization before taking the Colorado job. So you know he wants his team to show well against the Blue Jackets.
The Avalanche are expected to go with their starting goalie, Semyon Varlamov, while the Blue Jackets are expected to go with second-string goalie Curtis McElhinney. He's one of the weaker backup goalies in the league.
Chip Chirimbes
Grizzlies vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -5½
It seem difficult to lay points against this Memphis team as they play the toughest defense in the league. They have won their last four and held their last two opponents under 75 points. Charlotte is coming off a loss in double-overtime at New Orleans Saturday but showed some promise with the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who has 10 points and 13 rebounds. As tough as Memphis is at home at home they are not the same of the road. Charlotte won both meetings last season and post another one here tonight.
Matt Josephs
Illinois State vs. TCU
Play: Over 135
I'll bite on this one as I think this total is just a bit low. You've got two teams that play good defense, but TCU has been hard to slow down all year shooting 52.8% from the field while scoring 86.3 points per contest. The Horned Frogs have a pretty deep roster and added a few players last week. Illinois State has been lower scoring, but with a close contest expected, fouls could come into play. ISU has gone over in 17 of their last 27 games as an underdog. Last year these two played a 71-60 game on a neutral court, but I think we can expect more points in this one.
Dave Price
Warriors/Pacers Under 219
The Key: The Indiana Pacers are without leading scorer Paul George and key wing man C.J. Miles right now. Their offense has taken a significant hit with the losses of these two. They have averaged just 97.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last 5 games overall. Their defense has been a lot better of late as they recently held Orlando to 69 points and Cleveland to 93. Indiana is a tired team right now and is 21-5 UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 16-4 UNDER in home games off an ATS win over the last 2 years. The UNDER is 8-1 in Pacers last 9 games playing on 0 days' rest. After going into OT and beating OKC last night, the Pacers are tired and will struggle offensively against the Warriors.
Jack Jones
Phoenix Suns +8
The Washington Wizards have no business being 8-point favorites against anyone right now. They are just 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS this season with only one win by more than seven points this season. They can't be trusted to lay this kind of weight.
I know the Phoenix Suns haven't been a whole lot better, going just 4-10 straight up, but they are 8-6 ATS and have been competitive in more games than not. But I think the Suns come in way undervalued off their 105-120 loss at Philadelphia last time out. That was the second of a back-to-back after a 116-96 win in Indiana the night before, and they came out flat.
The Suns are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Wizards. They haven't lost any of their last six meetings with the Wizards by more than seven points. Phoenix is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 trips to Washington. There's a good chance this game goes right down to the wire, so getting the 8 points per is a ton of value.
The Suns are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. Phoenix is 42-17-2 ATS in its last 61 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Earl Watson is 16-4 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more as the coach of Phoenix, and 17-4 ATS off an ATS loss as their head coach.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND -6 over Houston
Brock Osweiler and the Texans struggle through every game and get lucky to pull out victories. When the Texans lose, they lose by a lot (every loss has been by 18 or more). When they win, it is by the narrowest of margins. The Texans only road win was just last week by a field goal over the 2-7 Jaguars. Brock Osweiler is among the worst starting QB’s to ever play in this league and there are no signs of him getting any better. Here’s a team that somehow wins games with a QB that has a rating of 74.1 and that has thrown nine picks to 11 TD’s. Osweiler ranks dead last among qualified QBs in yards per attempt and sits bottom-six in three other major categories.
Meanwhile, Derek Carr has 17 passing touchdowns this year and only three interceptions. He's been as good as 513 yards and four TD passes in a game this year. The rushing offense has helped out significantly in recent weeks and the Raiders have scored more than 28 points in all but two games this year. The touchdowns happen for the Raiders but it’s not just through the air, as this is a balanced offense that is difficult to contain. Derek Carr versus Brock Osweiler is a mismatch of the highest degree. The Oakland Raiders are a legit team, whose defense continues to improve and that has played a much tougher schedule than the Texans. The Texans three toughest opponents to date have been the Vikes, Patriots and Broncos and they lost all three by scores of 31-13, 27-0 and 27-9 respectively. When Houston played the Patriots, New England was without Brady and the Texans crossed into Houston’s territory once in 60 minutes. Against the Jags last week, Brock Osweiler had 69 yards passing with 90 seconds left in the game and ended up with 99. Our model stresses value but that value does not always come in the form of the underdog. In this case, Oakland is vastly superior to the Texans and while this one will take place on a neutral field in Mexico City, the fast track also favors the better team. Houston has been exposed three times already this year by quality opposition. Figure that number to rise to four when this one is in the books.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +105 over DALLAS
OT included. Our attack on the Stars continues. Dallas has been a low percentage play when favored by going 0-4 in its last four as the chalk, including a 5-2 loss to the Oilers Saturday night. The Stars are giving up a plethora of shots to the opposition, including more than 30 shots allowed in nine of their last 10 games. The Stars rank 26th in Corsi against per 60 minutes, they rank 24th in puck possession and they rank dead last in the number of face-offs in their own end, meaning no team is in their own end more than Dallas. The Stars also have the fourth worst team save percentage and they’re one of only five clubs that are sub .900 (.893). Break it down any way you want and Dallas is a fringe playoff team. They’re also 0-4 against top-10 teams and 3-7 against top 16 teams.
By contrast, the Wild are 3-0 against top-10 competition and 7-2 combined against top-10 and top-16. They are also 2-0 in their last two as a dog, including a 4-2 win at Pittsburgh, which was a very nice W. Perhaps the most glaring difference between these two is between the pipes where Devan Dubnyk’s .948 save percentage is tops in the West and second in the league with only Carey Price ahead of him. Dubnyk also leads the league with four shutouts and Minnesota overall leads the league with a GAA of 1.88. Coach Brice Boudreau has a long history of coaching thriving teams during the regular season. Minnesota is playing at a higher level under him than they did under previous regimes. Goaltending continues to be the #1 factor in determining outcomes and when there is a mismatch in an evenly priced game, we’re almost always interested in the superior goaltending. Devan Dubnyk versus Antti Niemi is a mismatch and is also more than enough reason to step in.
Calgary +112 over BUFFALO
OT included. Buffalo is the league’s most banged up team in terms of key personnel being on the rack, therefore, they’re a big risk at the present time. That risk is revealed in many ways. First, Buffalo has six wins in 18 games. If that doesn’t scare you off then perhaps this might. The Sabres have not scored more than twice in a game since October 30. That was 11 games ago so when you do bet them, you had better hope that the opposition scores one time. In Buffalo’s win over the Penguins on Saturday night (a result that is influencing this market), that was all Anders Nilsson’s doing, as the Sabres backup kicked away 47 shots in the victory. That was Buffalo’s first win in seven games and it was of the undeserving variety. Buffalo has surrendered 40 shots or more in four of those seven games. There is now talk in Buffalo that the wrong guy is the #1 goaltender. Well, Robin Lehner gets the start here under some heat and he’s a bit of a head case to begin with. Frankly, there is nothing to like about the Sabres spotting a price even if it appears the Flames are up against it.
Aside from Buffalo luckily defeating the Penguins on Saturday, the other issue that is influencing this price is that the Flames schedule has been a grueling one of late. Calgary played yesterday in Detroit and will be playing their fifth game in seven days here, fourth game in six days, third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. The market is buying that the Flames will come in running on fumes and the Sabres will take advantage. That may turn out to be true but we wouldn’t bet on it. Winning injects energy and after a funk, Calgary has won three of four with only loss over that span occurring against Chicago by a score of 3-2. What sticks out more than anything however, is that the Flames under the hood defensive numbers have been near flawless over their past seven games where they have allowed an average of 24 shots on net per game or eight shots per period. That is the best mark in the NHL over the last seven games and they did it against some offensively minded teams like Dallas, Anaheim, Chicago, the Rangers and Detroit. Calgary has allowed 24 shots on net or less five times in those aforementioned seven games with the other two results being 27 and 28 shots on net respectively. The Flames rank second in the league in Corsi Against (shots directed to the net) over that same span. Calgary might just have the best group of puck-moving defensemen in the league. They have three defensemen (T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton) that could be a #1 defenseman on a high majority of other teams in this league so it should come as no surprise how efficient they are at moving the puck out and keeping shots to a minimum. We’re counting on the Flames to dig down a bit deeper here and come up with another beauty. They don’t even have to be at their best to beat the Sabres, they just have to give an honest and strong effort, which is something we're banking on.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT +111 over Houston
The Pistons are 5-1 at home this season and quite frankly play like a different basketball team when they are on the court in The Palace of Auburn Hills. This is a franchise that owns wins over Oklahoma City, Denver, Milwaukee, New York and Orlando by considerable margins, as the average margin of victory for the Pistons in these contests is nearly 14 points. Detroit recently saw their five-game home winning streak come to an end in their most recent outing against the Boston Celtics where Rock City fell by a minimal difference of 94-92. Combining that recent result with Detroit losing its last three overall prompts us to step in and buy low.
On a contrasting note, the Rockets have won three of their last four, all of which were at home against teams they were expected to defeat. Houston is anchored by one of the game’s best players in James Harden. Harden has been prolific to say the least since and his marquee name combined with his superstar performances could easily be driving the market perspective, as Houston seems to score at will when he is on his A-Game. However, Detroit has won the last two against the Rockets and have had found ways to generate offense to overcome the proficiency of Mr. Harden. Houston’s defense has always been a question mark and it will undoubtedly be tested by a Pistons offense that has scored more than 103 points in eight of their last 10 games and that has not lost a step even with point guard Reggie Jackson shelved with a knee injury. The Pistons have a revamped front court featuring underrated talent in Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris and of course Detroit has a monster at center in Andre Drummond, who could be good for a double-double on any given night. Factoring this in with Houston's Dwight Howard-less thin front court and this actually may be a long night for the Rockets. Detroit has the right blueprint in place to defeat this intruder and we trust they’ll use it here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Belmont +12½ over FLORIDA
It’s year two with Mike White at the helm in Gainesville and the Gators have lost leading scorer Dorian Finney-Smith, who is now with the Dallas Mavericks. After an up and down season that resulted in an NIT appearance, Florida returns four starters and hopes are high in Gainesville. However the Gators are one of the SEC’s worst three-point shooting teams. The loss of Finney-Smith leaves a big gap to fill in. A few players also transferred out of the Gators program over the offseason. The emphasis here is too focused on Florida’s current undefeated mark in comparison to the 1-1 mark the Belmont Bruins own, who lost their opener at the Gators’ fellow SEC colleague Vanderbilt by 14 points six days ago. Initial reactions would certainly indicate that the Bruins coming by way of the middling Ohio Valley Conference cannot stack up against a Power Conference foe like Florida but we’re not so sure about that.
In the last five years, the Bruins have qualified for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament on four occasions, a number equivalent to the amount of tournament berths the Gators clinched as well over that span. However, while Belmont may have been one and done in each of those tournament berths, they did not enjoy the same benefits that Florida has. Belmont could only get in to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament by the only sure-fire way to achieve qualification: win their conference championship. When a team like Belmont gets in, they are almost always a low seed in the event, which means playing a high seed in Round 1, which in turn results in early exits. While we are not here to make excuses for Belmont, we must highlight the fact that this is a team that is accustomed to playing with their backs against the wall against elite competition. Regardless of whether Belmont has been successful in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament or not or whether they have made it out of the first round, the Bruins undoubtedly have big game experience historically and this serves as an advantage for them as they head into Gainesville. Bruins Coach Rick Byrd has seen it all and done it all on countless occasions, as he has built this program from the ground-up in over thirty years of service. This is a basketball team that under his captainship, regardless of turnover and attrition has consistently won in excess of 20 games in 11 of the 13 previous seasons the Bruins have taken the hardwood.
Belmont was the team to beat in the Ohio Valley Conference last season and they ended up with the best overall record in the conference at 12-4. With four starters back, led by inside force Evan Bradds, Belmont will again be the favorite out of the OVC to reach the NCAA Tournament. On a team known for their great guard play and outside shooting ability, having a player like Bradds in the paint is huge and we’ll trust this well-coached and dangerous underdog to bring this one in under the number.
Bruce Marshall
Northwestern +2.5
Lots of upside at Texas. But Shaka Smart is still breaking in a lot of newcomers to a side that lost all of its starters from LY. Recent near-miss at Butler suggests Chris Collins might have his best NU edition, as the Wildcats have an established presence at the point in jr. Bryant McIntosh (14 ppg, 7 apg LY) and will benefit from the return to health of 6-7 soph F Vic Law (20.3 ppg in early going), off to a quick start after wowing late in his frosh season two years ago before missing LY with a shoulder injury.
Brett Atkins
Monday's comp play will be Over the total in the Texans-Raiders meeting from Mexico City.
Oakland has scored 30 points or more in each of their last 3 games, and they have played Over the total in 3 straight, and 7 of their 9 games overall this season.
Houston comes into this game with Overs played in 4 of their last 6 games on the season.
These teams are meeting for the 5th time since the 2010 season, and each of the last pair and 3 of the 4 overall meetings have landed Over the total between the clubs.
The sold-out crowd in Mexico City gets treated to a shootout tonight.
Play Houston and Oakland Over the total.
2* HOUSTON-OAKLAND OVER
Brad Wilton
So far, so good for new Cowboys coach Brad Underwood, as he has Oklahoma State off to a 3-0 start with all 3 wins seeing his team reach triple-digits!
True, the wins have come against some inferior schools, and true tonight will be the Pokes first real test, but UConn has not looked good out of the gate this year.
Kevin Ollie's team has already lost home games to Wagner and Northeastern, and they barely squeaked by Loyola Marymount their last time out.
Will stick with the hot Cowboys to hand the Huskies another early season loss tonight in the Maui Invitational.
Oklahoma State, OK!
2* OKLAHOMA STATE
Chris Jordan
My free play for Monday is on the college hardwood, where I'm taking giant-slayer Kansas, minus the big number against Alabama-Birmingham. It's all about Rock Chalk Jayhawk, as seventh-ranked Kansas will play its second of four games in an eight-day stretch in bracket play of the CBE Hall of Fame Classic.
Kansas won its 43rd-straight home opener with an 86-65 win against Siena, Nov. 18, in a host game for the Classic. But it's the win over Duke I am more hyped about, as the Jayhawks served the soon-to-be not No. 1 Blue Devils with an early season setback, 77-75, on Nov. 15.
College basketball is upon us!
The Jayhawks average 87.3 points per game and have a +6.3 scoring margin. The margin in this one will be bigger, as the Blazers don't have near the offensive firepower as Kansas. UAB averages 78.0 points, but its three games have come against Arkansas-Pine Bluff (86-66 win), Furman (84-74 loss) and Troy (74-51).
This is a major step up in class, and Kansas is going to bring the Blazers back down to reality.
Lay the home chalk.
1* KANSAS