Free Picks for Monday, November 28th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
TULSA AT ORAL ROBERTS
PLAY: TULSA -1
Pride on the line tonight as neighboring schools Tulsa and Oral Roberts have their annual showdown. It’s a game that has seemingly meant a bit more to the Golden Eagles, and they’ve won three straight in the series. I’m thinking this one might go in favor the Golden Hurricane.
First off, while a good number of the current Tulsa players weren’t around for last year’s 70-68 ORU win, I imagine they all know how it ended. The Eagles got a corner three from Albert Owens that was probably the biggest basket of the game. That’s remarkably notable, because Owens only attempted seven treys over the course of the entire season. He made just one of those seven, and this happened to be that one. Oral Roberts then won the game at the horn and to say they celebrated would be a bit of an understatement.
The revenge motive should be big for Tulsa here, but it’s not like Oral Roberts is going to just surrender as they always want this game. But some personnel issues are factored into my opinion on this game.
Tulsa has improved since junior college transfer Jaleel Wheeler swung into action after missing the team’s first two games. Wheeler has been a definite plus factor and was the best player on the floor in Tulsa’s win over Oregon State.
On the flip side, it appears as though swingman Aaron Anderson might be out for Oral Roberts again. He’s missed the last two games, and while I don’t see Anderson as a vital component, his absence would certainly impact the rotation for the Eagles. Anderson is not listed in the Tulsa World projected starting lineups for this game, so that could indicate he’s out again.
Tulsa is on the uptick following two rough games to start the season. Oral Roberts is struggling, losing all four games to D-1 opposition and getting blown out in three of those outings. I make Tulsa the better team at this point and I have to think they really want to end the streak of futility against the Eagles. I’ll side with Tulsa to win this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Butler vs. Utah
Play: Butler -2
The Bulldogs are vastly improves this year and stand at 6-0 after knocking off undefeated Arizona last out. They have a solid 14 RPI Scale ranking and a 76th Strength of schedule ranking. They are 15-2 in November and 29-6 vs non conference. Utah has played no one winning 4 home games against complete cream puffs. They have a 351st SOS ranking and 287 in the RPI Scale. They have lost 10 of 14 as a dog and are 1-4 ats vs Big east teams. Play on Butler.
Art Aronson
Dallas vs. St Louis
Play:St Louis -160
REASONING: If you don’t mind laying some juice, we think the home side does in fact offer pretty good value in this spot. Both teams come in off victories, Dallas beating the Canucks 2-1 and St. Louis earning a 4-3 shootout win over the Wild. Dallas though is just 3-8 on the road and has scored two goals or less in regulation in five of its last six. Goaltender Antti Niemi is 0-2 with a 5.55 GAA on the road. Blues’ goaltender Jake Allen is 10-6 with a 2.36 GAA this season, including 7-2 with a 1.42 GAA at home.
The bottom line: Note that Dallas is just 2-12 in its last four after allowing two goals or less in its previous game and just 1-7 in its last eight following a win, while St. Louis is 57-14 in its last 71 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. We think Allen and the consistent home side are worth the price of admission in this spot.
Ben Burns
Dallas vs. St Louis
Play: Under 5½
Most St. Louis O/U lines are set at five. While we have to lay some extra juice, we're able to get this one at 5.5. As you're surely aware, with so many games finishing with precisely five goals, there's a signfiicant difference between five and 5.5. The Blues have only seen two home games (10/25 and 11/5) with totals of 5.5 this season. Both games finished below the number, final combined scores of five and three. Going back further finds the 'under' at 18-7 the last 25 times that the Blues played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. With games here averaging just 4.3 goals this season, those stats have an excellent shot at improving tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
Thunder vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks Pk
The Knicks have covered 6 of their last 7 games but they are off of a SU loss Saturday that was just their 2nd SU loss in their last 7 games. As a result of coming off of a defeat, New York certainly has some extra motivation for this game. The Knicks are catching the Thunder at the right time as Oklahoma City has won and covered two straight games. OKC has NOT covered three straight games yet this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Thunder come into this game feeling a little too good about themselves after back to back wins and the Knicks will be the hungrier team. From a technical standpoint, New York is 7-2 ATS at home this season, 7-2 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season, and 6-1 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Thunder are on a 6-17 ATS run against Atlantic Division opponents. Also, Oklahoma City is on a 3-12 (SU and ATS) run in games where they are a road underdog of 3 points or less.
Power Sports
Charlotte vs. Memphis
Pick: Charlotte
I feel that the better team is getting points (ever so few) and this is a revenge spot to boot. Last week saw the Grizzlies go to Charlotte and record an outright, 105-90 win as 5.5-pt underdogs. Across the board, the Hornets shot poorly in that game: 41.1% overall, 9 of 31 from 3-pt range and just 64% from the FT line.
I don't anticipate the Hornets shooting that poorly again Monday, so I'll take the points. Charlotte ended a four-game win streak by taking the second game of a home and home w/ the Knicks. They won that game w/ defense, holding NY to 37.8% shooting, and pretty much led throughout. Jeremy Lamb, all 6'5" of him, sure helped by grabbing 17 rebounds. Nick Batum, though listed as questionable w/ an eye injury, is expected to return to the lineup tonight. That would be an additional bonus.
Having won seven of their last eight, Memphis has been a surprise in my eyes. Though their fans have a right to point to the incredible slew of injuries that took place, the Grizzlies were one of the real overachievers in terms of wins & losses in 2015-16. Mike Conley, thus far, has justified the huge contract he received in the offseason w/ three 30+ point games. One of those three came in the 1st meeting vs. the Hornets where Memphis opened up a 24 point lead at halftime and shot 12 of 26 from three-point range. I don't see a repeat of those numbers tonight. The Grizz have still been outscored on a per possession basis this season.
Jim Feist
Utah at Minnesota
Pick: Under
The Minnesota T'Wolves are looking to improve defensively on their 103.5 ppg averaged allowed points (15th). Maybe the Wolves will learn something tonight from the league's best defensive team in Utah. Utah is holding opponents to a league-low 42.3% shooting and 92.8 ppg. Last game, the Jazz held Atlanta to just 31.3% shooting, blocked nine shots and forced 14 turnovers. This game won't have many highlight reel moments, but it will be a low scoring, defensive battle.
Rocketman
Philadelphia @ Toronto
Play: Toronto -14.5
The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Toronto to take on the Raptors on Monday night. Philadelphia is 4-13 SU overall this year while Toronto comes in with a 10-6 SU overall record on the season. Philadelphia is 4-28 SU and 9-23 ATS last 3 years against division opponents. Philadelphia is allowing 107.1 points per game overall this year, 114.6 points per game on the road this season and 104 points per game their past 5 games overall. Toronto is scoring 108.3 points per game overall this year, 104.4 points per game at home this season, 109.4 points per game their past 5 games overall and 118 points per game against division opponents this year. Toronto is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS last 3 years overall vs Philadelphia. Philadelphia is off a tough loss against Cleveland yesterday where they led most of the game and playing with no rest while Toronto has had plenty of rest. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
Hornets vs. Grizzlies
Play: Hornets +1½
This might seem like a favorable spot to back the Grizzlies, who are basically a pick'em at home against the Hornets, who they just recently beat in Charlotte 105-90 back on 11/21. I don't think that's the case, as I look for the Hornets to come out with revenge on their mind and pull off the victory.
In that 15-point road win for Memphis over Charlotte, Mike Conley scored a season-high 31 points, so we can expect some regression this time around. On the flip side of this, the Hornets top two scorers, Walker and Batum shot just 7 of 22 from the field (2-14 from 3-pt) for a combined 25 points. These two can't be any worse and there's a good chance they see a big jump in their output.
Another key here is the Grizzlies will have a much different look this time around. They won't have starter Tyler Ennis or key reserve Zach Randolph. They also continue to play without prized free agent pickup Chandler Parsons. Charlotte on the other hand will have center Tyler Zeller this time around and they are 9-4 when he plays and 0-3 when he doesn't.
Hornets are 28-15 ATS in their last 43 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points, while Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning road record.
Jack Jones
Jazz vs. Wolves
Play: Jazz -2½
The Utah Jazz are a much better team with George Hill in the lineup than without him. They have gone 6-3 in games in which he has played, and 3-5 without him. Hill leads the team in scoring at 20.9 points per game while shooting 55.2% from the floor and 47.1% from 3-point range.
With Hill back the past two games, the Jazz have arguably played their best two games of the year with a 108-83 home win over Denver and a 95-68 home win over Atlanta. Now they have had two days off since beating the Hawks on Friday. They will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, so they are rested and ready to go.
The Timberwolves have fallen short of expectations this season, going just 5-11 overall. They have lost four of their last five and are in a tough spot here. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after playing Golden State on the road Saturday. I always like fading teams after playing the Warriors because it's a natural letdown spot for them.
The Jazz are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Timberwolves, winning by 13, 9 and 13 points. Utah is 17-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last three seasons. The Jazz are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Timberwolves are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Will Rogers
Utah vs. Minnesota
Pick: Under
The Jazz rank 1st in points allowed (92.8 ) & opponents’ FG percentage (42.3)...
The set-up: The 9-8 Utah Jazz will visit the 5-11 Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night. The Jazz travel to Minnesota on Monday off one of the most impressive defensive performances of the season, a 95-68 home win against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday. Minnesota comes in having dropped four of its last five games
Utah: The Jazz had lost four in a row before rebounding to hold the Denver Nuggets and the Atlanta Hawks to an average of 75.5 PPG in back-to-back wins bridging Thanksgiving. "Guys were focused on it," Jazz head coach Quin Snyder told reporters after Friday's 95-68 triumph over Atlanta. "It's something that we want to be. We want to be a really good defensive team, and we knew we were playing against the best defensive team in the league. We were focused on being disciplined, and that's the main thing." The team's new PG, George Hill (20.9 PPG) and the team's best player, SF Hayward (20.3 & 7.3), lead five double digit scorers. Hill is averaging 22.5 points on 16-of-27 shooting in two games since returning from a thumb injury but PF Favors has missed five straight games and remains out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Minnesota: The T-wolves own the last two ROY players in Wiggins (23.5) and Towns (21.1 & 9.4) plus LaVine (19.4) has averaged 20.6 points on 47.1 percent shooting over the last five contests. However, head coach Tom Thibodeau is in his first season at Minnesota and the team has yet to figure things out on the defensive end. Minnesota is giving up 103.5 PPG, good for 15th in the league. However, that hardly comes close to matching Utah’s defensive prowess, as the Jazz rank first in points allowed (92.8 ) and opponents’ shooting percentage (42.3).
Larry Ness
Sacramento vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
Rick Adelman led the Kings to the postseason in all eight of his seasons coaching Sacramento but was fired after the 2005-06 season. The Kings haven’t made the playoffs since, entering this season on a 10-year playoff drought. The Kings are 7-10 to open this season but have won three of four, after a 122-105 romp over the Brooklyn Nets Sunday night. The Kings sank 13 of 23 three-pointers and outscored the Nets 34-18 in the third quarter. The Wizards had also won three of four but that was before they ran into the red-hot San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, who won for the ninth straight time, 112-100.
"At the end of the day, it's about defense, and we didn't play it at the end of the day," Washington guard Bradley Beal told reporters after scoring a team-high 25 points. Beal (20.1 PPG) teams with PG Wall (23.5-4.2-8.7) to give Washington one of the league’s best backcourts. In fact, Washington’s starting-five also includes forwards Porter (14.7-8.1) and Morris 912.8-5.7) plus center Gortat (11.3-12.1). There really is no excuse for this team to be 5-10 and it’s something the team's new head coach (Scott Brooks of OKC fame), will have to answer for.
The Kings own two “big-time” scorers in Cousins (28.3-9.9) and Gay (19.7-6.4) but consistency behind those two is rare. PG Collison missed the first eight games due to a league suspension involving a domestic violence incident and in his nine games back (four starts), he’s scoring 13.7 PPG and adding 5.1 APG. For now however, he’s coming off the bench with Ty Lawson starting at PG.
Sacramento entered this season 51-146 (.259) SU on the road the last five seasons and after last night’s easy win in Brooklyn, will find the going much tougher on back-to-back nights in Washington. Take the home team.
David Banks
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
Pick: Green Bay +4
It’s hard to believe, but the Green Bay Packers are as bad as they look. A 42-24 loss to Philadelphia last Sunday night proved it. The ugly defeat was the fourth straight for Green Bay, which now must take on another NFC East foe in Philadelphia on Monday night. The Eagles didn’t fare much better last week when they dropped a 26-15 decision to Seattle. Both teams are in must-win situations as the rest of their respective divisions are beginning to pull away from them.
Green Bay was 4-2 at one point, but the Packers defense has just fallen apart. In their four straight losses, Green Bay has given up over 38 points a game. Giving up that many points per game is a sure recipe for disaster in the NFL. The Packers gave up a 70-yard TD pass from Kirk Cousins to Pierre Garcon in the Washington loss. It was the 11th touchdown pass on a throw of 15 or more yards downfield that the Packers have allowed. They are tied with Cleveland for the most long-ball touchdowns given up.
Green Bay will face a rookie quarterback in Carson Wentz, but he doesn’t play anything like a rookie. After starting the season strong, the Eagles have fallen on some hard times of their own going 1-3 in their last four games. Wentz has played respectably; it’s some of his teammates who have let the team down. In the loss to Seattle last week, WR Nelson Agholor committed a costly penalty and dropped a ball that should have easily been caught. Agholor’s miscues wound up allowing Seattle to build to its lead and eventually collect their seventh win of the season.
The Eagles also have the advantage of playing at home at Lincoln Financial Field. Besides the Texans and the Seahawks, Philadelphia is the only other team that is unbeaten (4-0) at home this season. The Packers? They don’t do so well on the road. Green Bay is just 1-4 away from Lambeau Field in 2016.
Wunderdog
Butler vs. Utah
Pick: Butler -1
Butler is off to a 6-0 start, including impressive wins over Vanderbilt and Arizona in the Las Vegas Invitational. And the Bulldogs defense is holding opponents to just 41.3 percent from the field. The Bulldogs are getting balanced scoring as Kelan Martin led his team with 16 points against Arizona with Andrew Chrabascz and Avery Woodson contributing 14 and 13 points, respectively. Utah is 4-0 against some weak competition, and this will be the first true test for the Utes, who beat UC Riverside 85-67 on Friday. Lorenzo Bonam scored 21 points, and Kyle Kuzma added 18 points while Devon Daniels scored 14 points and pulled down 11 rebounds against the Highlanders. Utah is in somewhat of a rebuilding mode returning just two starters from last season's 27-9 squad. Butler is 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 games overall, and Utah is 3-8 ATS as an underdog dating to last season.