Chip Chirimbes
Packers at Eagles
Play: Packers +4
Philadelphia opened the season with three straight wins and all the league was a flutter about rookie Carson Wentz but they have lost five of their last seven and are now in the basement in the NFC East. Green Bay meanwhile has lost four straight and they look bad doing it. Aaron Rogers just doesn't look the same and many believe that it is because of the players surrounding him and some think that he's physically impaired but he says that things are fine. Well, we will find out tonight as the Packers regroup.
Dave Price
Toronto Raptors -15
The Philadelphia 76ers are in an awful spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 11th game in 18 days. They just played the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers last night, and they're likely to suffer a hangover here from that narrow loss. Plus they will be without their best player in Joel Embiid as he is expected to rest again on this back-to-back situation, just as he has been doing all season. I love the fact that Toronto never takes Philadelphia lightly. The Raptors are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the 76ers, winning all 5 games by double-digits. They have won these 5 games by an average of 16.8 points per game. Given the tough spot for the 76ers here, I expect the Raptors to easily win this game and cover this 15-point spread.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA -4 over Green Bay
Seriously, what is their to like about the Packers here? Green Bay has lost their last four games and are just 1-4 on the road thanks only to the Jaguars in the season opener. Here’s a team that lost at Lambeau to Indy in Week 9 and was subsequently torched in Week’s 10 and 11 by Tennessee and Washington by scores of 47-25 and 42-24 respectively. Yes indeed, the Packers were torched by a Titans team that got extremely lucky to beat the Bears yesterday and if not for a dropped pass in the end zone by an NFL receiver that Bob Barker would have caught, the Titans would’ve lost.
Green Bay will play its third game in a row on the road here and they’ll play their fourth road game in five weeks. The Packers defense has allowed 31 points or more in each of the last four games — all losses. A team in a stretch like this will usually see its stock drop like crazy but that is not the case with the Packers. This market loves Aaron Rodgers and a good offense and it is seldom on board with giving Rodgers and the Packers points. What is wrong with the Packers this year is the same thing that was wrong with them last year. Jordy Nelson, who in 2014 was the best wide receiver in the NFL, is no longer the best wide receiver in the NFL. The Packers offensive line is awful, their defence cannot stop the run and is getting gashed through the air. The Packs’ offensive coordinators have not adjusted to what they’re working with. The Packers last win was five weeks ago against the Bears and they’re not likely to get off the mattress here.
So, while the Packers have been losing to the Colts and Titans among others, Philadelphia’s last seven opponents have been Detroit, Washington, Minnesota, Dallas, the Giants, Atlanta and Seattle with five of those being on the road. The Eagles last two home games were against the Vikes and Falcons and Philly won them both, 21-10 and 24-15, respectively. They have played two other home games and they’re 2-0 in those games also woth a 34-3 victory over the Steelers and an opening day win over the Brownies, 29-10. The Eagles ground attack is one of the best in the game, which in turn makes life so much easier for rookie QB, Carson Wentz. Still, Wentz has been very good at home.
What's less widely understood is that Green Bay is not what it used to be and neither is Aaron Rodgers. This Packers’ squad isn't braced for a big statement game; instead, it just flopped in one and now the market is overlooking that and it is also overlooking the fact that the Eagles have been near flawless at home. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA ST -9½ over Minnesota
The Golden Gophers come into this game with a 6-0 record, which provides us with an opportunity to sell them at an inflated price. The Gophers have beaten up on six cupcakes and there is a price to pay for scheduling games against weak opponents. When the Gophers defeated the Johnnies 92-86 on November 18, St. John’s hit 29 FG’s in 79 attempts. Playing SIU this past Friday, the Salukis hit 19 of 61 FG’s on the Gophers and lost by 12. The list goes on of opponents missing a ton of looks against the Gophers and it’s not because Minnesota plays great defense. It’s been a simple case of teams missing open shots but the number of shot attempts and free throws against Minnesota is much more revealing and does not paint a pretty picture. The Gophers have some blowout losses coming their way because this is a weak team that pays no attention to defense and has never seen a shot they didn’t like.
At the beginning of February of last year, Florida State looked like an NCAA Tournament team. However, a five-game losing streak during that month ended up dropping the Seminoles to the NIT. The program and Coach Leonard Hamilton have a little reloading to do, but this group will be right back in the mix for a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Dwayne Bacon burst onto the scene as a freshman, averaging 15.8 points per game. Bacon has been and will be nearly impossible to contain. The Seminoles are deep with 11 players all averaging more than 10 minutes per game and all five starters averaging over 20 but not more than 26. The Seminoles work to get a high percentage shot and the proof is in the pudding, as eight players have hit 50% or more of their shots. Hamilton is developing a great rotation that just keeps getting better with each passing game and unless things go terribly wrong here, FSU should easily expose these Big-10 imposters.
Brandon Lee
Celtics vs. Heat
Play: Celtics -4
Boston will be without Horford (personal), but I still look for the Celtics to cruise to a win here on the road against a Heat team that isn't very good to start with and is dealing with some big injuries. Boston has been an offensive force all season, ranking in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and averaging 104.0 ppg. The defense is finally catching up to the offense, as the Celtics are giving up just 96.1 ppg over their last 9 games, which is quite a difference to the 103.4 ppg they are allowing on the season. Miami simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power (95.6 ppg) to keep up with Boston at home. The Heat do have a strong defense, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days against a rested Celtics team that has had the last 2 days off.
Ricky Tran
Wake Forest vs. Northwestern
Play: Northwestern -4½
The Spread: The Demon Deacons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5, the Wildcats 4-0 ATS in their last four as a favorite within the same spread.
Vic Law: Northwestern's leading scorer has made 18-of-29 attempts (62.1%) from behind the arc. Wake Forest allowed Coastal Carolina to shoot 41.4% from 3-point range in its last game.
Home Court: Northwestern is undefeated home at Welsh-Ryan Arena this season.
Brandon Shively
Utah vs. Minnesota
Pick: Under
Both teams play at a slow pace with the Jazz ranked 29th and the Timberwolves ranked 19th in pace of play over the last two weeks. Defensively, the Jazz are rated as the 5th best team over the last 2 weeks while the Timberwolves are ranked 14th over the same time period.
Offensively, Minnesota has been held under 100 points in 4 of their last 5 games and for an average of 92 points on 41% shooting. The Jazz have gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 games holding teams to under 40% from the floor while only shooting 44%.
Neither team is going to score a lot of points offensively on a consistent basis. The Jazz are a defensive minded team and Minnesota is starting to play better defense under coach Thibodeau. Look for a final score in the 94-92 range.
Flames vs. Islanders
Pick: Islanders
At first glance, the Isles' 1-6 record in their last seven games would appear to portend a dire situation for the team that has finished with 100 points for two seasons in a row. But when you look a little closer, you will see that New York has just finished a brutal stretch of games over this time - five of which were on the road - including two against the Lightning, and one each against the Penguins, Panthers, Sharks, Kings, and Ducks. Seven of the Isles' next nine games are here at Barclays Center and they will have to make the most of this stretch if they are to climb the ranks of the ultra-tough Metropolitan Division. This game marks the end of the Flames' longest road trip of the season - six games - and while they will no doubt be glad to get back home after tonight, they can't be too disappointed with the results over the last two weeks (5-3 in their last eight). But this is a team that has been largely over-performing lately in the wake of their leading scorer being out for six weeks. It certainly wouldn't be surprising to see them go on a losing streak now. The Flames are 0-4 in the last four meetings with the Isles.
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma City +1
I see a class difference here. Derrick Rose is still getting acclimated to his new team while Russell Westbrook has become the new Oscar Robertson averaging 31 points, 11 assists and 9.9 rebounds.
Oklahoma City holds a strong rebounding edge along with Westbrook's overall dominance.
The Knicks have won six in a row at home. However, those victories have come against the Nets, Pistons - a horrible road team - Mavericks, slumping Hawks, Trail Blazers - who were playing their fourth road game in six days - and Hornets in overtime.
I don't see the Knicks stepping up here.
Bruce Marshall
Toronto -16
They don't know what to say on 610 WIP as the Sixers won four straight at the Wells Fargo Center thru Nov. 22! But let's see what Philly can do on the road, where it has lost its first five and managed just one cover entering Air Canada Centre. Toronto had little trouble with Sixers LY before Joel Embiid was healthy enough to play, winning and covering all four meetings by DD margins. "Embiid Fever" is catchy, but prefer recent Toronto-flavored series trends, and Raps should also enjoy facing something other than the many top five offenses they've seen in the past week.
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Monday will be to play the Packers-Eagles Over the total.
Green Bay has been playing "video game" contests of late, as each of their last 4 games haven't just slipped Over the total, they have gone Over the total by large amounts.
The Packers have injuries coming out the wazoo, so don't expect Green Bay to be able to bottle up the Eagles in this critical NFC contest tonight.
The Eagles have actually played Under the total in their last pair of games, but Philly has indeed seen 4 of their last 7 overall play Over the total.
I just get the feeling based on the injuries to both teams, that there will be some big plays, and some broken plays tonight. A key turnover or two would not be a surprise to me either.
Packers-Eagles land Over on Monday.
2* GREEN BAY-PHILADELPHIA OVER
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday night is on the Butler Bulldogs against the Utah Utes in college hoops. Now I've had some time to soak up some basketball last week. There was a lot of it in town, and I found myself watching basketball at the Thomas and Mack Center, the MGM Grand Garden and the Orleans Arena. And I can tell you one team I was impressed by was Butler.
I watched this team take care of Vanderbilt with relative ease in the semifinals of the Continental Las Vegas Invitational and then watched it topple No. 8 Arizona. The Bulldogs are coming along nicely. They received votes in the Associated Press poll last week, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dawgs sneak in this week.
Utah has played nothing more than a tissue-soft schedule to open the season 4-0, and while I'm always skeptical about laying points in the altitude, I think Butler is conditioned enough to handle it. I watched the Bulldogs play very patient basketball in the championship game, and after allowing Arizona to climb back into the contest, they used up their stamina in the end to pull away.
Butler used a late 17-3 run to post a 76-66 win over Vanderbilt, and then closed late against Arizona to pull away with relative ease. This kid Andrew Chrabascz is a rock, Kelan Martin and Kamar Baldwin can score, the team has contributors from everywhere and they all play with confidence and a lot of chemistry.
Let's take a shot here with the complimentary road chalk on Butler.
4* BUTLER
Brett Atkins
Monday's free play comes in college hoops as I grab the points with Boise State in their meeting in Eugene against Oregon.
The highly-touted Ducks just got back from their holiday tournament in Hawaii, and while they did rally to win their last pair of games, Oregon just hasn't looked all that smooth through their first 6 games, sporting a 2-4 against the spread ledger.
Boise State spent the Thanksgiving holiday at home, and they bring a 2 game winning streak into this game. The Broncos did win outright last season at home by a basket over the Ducks, and I will take my chances grabbing the major points they are getting tonight as Oregon looks for payback.
Boise State to stay inside of the roomy impost.
1* BOISE STATE
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Monday night is in college basketball, and I'm laying four touchdowns. The West Virginia Mountaineers are hosting the Manhattan Jaspers, and I'm going to take a shot with Bob Huggins and the boys down there.
West Virginia plays a physical brand of basketball, and after spending Thanksgiving weekend in the Big Apple, it'll enjoy some home time, and will start by denouncing the Jaspers, and undermanned team that won't have any will to stop the Mountaineers.
This is Manhattan's second road game in three nights, as it just beat Detroit Mercy at its place. Now facing a rugged Mountaineers team that will be pissed off after losing to Temple is a lot to ask for.
Let's lay the chalk here, nothing major - it's a free play - while the real money to be made is with my NFL release tonight.
1* WEST VIRGINIA
Bob Valentino
My free play for tonight is in the NBA, as I love the Golden State Warriors against the Atlanta Hawks, who come to Oakland after losing two straight, including a 109-94 decision to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. This will be Atlanta's fourth game in six days, and the Warriors will run this team ragged.
Going back, the Hawks have now lost five of six games, four via double digits. Utah humiliated them a few nights back, and now, after last night, this is a heavy chore to endure.
Meanwhile, Golden State just continues to win. The Warriors have one loss this season, and that avenged last week with back-to-back drubbings of the Lakers. Golden State is playing in a good flow at the moment and will destroy these tired Hawks tonight.
4* WARRIORS