Free Picks for Monday, November 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Allen Eastman
Detroit (-2.5) over Green Bay
Detroit is a road favorite in this game for a reason. They are the better team in this one, and Green Bay is not the same team without Aaron Rodgers under center. He is irreplaceable. The Lions have lost to the Packers three straight times. They are going to want to turn that around. The Lions played well against Pittsburgh but couldn't crack the Steelers' top defense. Green Bay's defense is not that same caliber, and I don't think the Lions are going to have to settle for field goals in this one. Green Bay has been outgained in each of its last four games. And most of those were with Rodgers. They have been outgained by 350 yards in two games without him and have lost both SU and ATS. Detroit is not going to take it easy on the Packers just because they are playing without Rodgers. The Lions need a win to snap their three-game losing streak, and I think that they will get it. The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Monday Night Football, and I think that they will get the job done in this one.
Dr Bob
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Lean – Under 43 – GREEN BAY (+2.5) vs Detroit
Brett Hundley did not play well in his first NFL start, gaining just 3.0 yards per pass play against New Orleans. My quarterback model projects Hundley to be about 10 points per game worse than Aaron Rodgers, which obviously drastically limits Green Bay’s play calling in the passing game. The Packers were able to find success on the ground (7.5 yards per rush) against the Saints 30th ranked rush defense but I don’t expect that to continue this week against a Lions defense holding opponents to 3.6 yards per rush (5th).
Detroit’s offense gained 7.0 yards per play last week but I think much of that was situation-based. The Lions had an extra week to prepare for a Steelers defense coming off two massive games against Kansas City and divisional rival Cincinnati. Detroit is still gaining less than 5 yppl on the season and I expect them to continue to play poorly on offense moving forward.
Green Bay’s defense has been unlucky to give up a touchdown on 74% of their opponents’ redzone trips thus far and I expect them to improve going forward given that no team since 2010 has surrendered a rate that high and the Packers’ defense is actually a bit better than average after adjusting for opposing offenses faced. I’ll pass on the side but our metrics like the Under.
Randall The Handle
Lions (3-4) at Packers (4-3)
Brett Hundley’s apprenticeship is complete as he is now the starter for the Packers. It’s a huge drop in both talent and experience from Aaron Rodgers and Hundley’s first appearance was not exactly something to store on video. However, coaches have had two weeks to work on weaknesses now that the youngster has played a full game as starter and we’re thinking that things have to get better. If things don’t go well offensively, Green Bay is more than capable of stopping a struggling Detroit team that has now lost four of previous five. Lions play in the red zone last week was simply atrocious as Leos should have taken down the Steelers if not for incompetent play-calling and execution when in scoring position. Obviously, this point-spread is reflective of the Rodgers injury, but a team that has one win at Lambeau in its past 26 visits will have a hard time winning and covering as a favourite here. TAKING: PACKERS +2½
Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Lions at Packers
Covers.com
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+2, 43.5)
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are attempting to address issues with their respective offenses heading into Monday night's clash at Lambeau Field. The Packers have seen their high-octane offense take a significant hit with the loss of two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), while the Lions' issues deal with their inability to consistently convert in the red zone.
Brett Hundley answered a three-interception performance in relief of an injured Rodgers by completing just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards and an interception in his first career start - a 26-17 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 22. The Packers had their bye the following week, with coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers working with Hundley in a bid to address some issues with the team's 243.5-yard total offense in the near-two games since Rodgers was injured - 66.5 below their season average. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards in last Sunday's 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh, but his team went 0-for-5 in the red zone and fell to 28th in the league in that situation as it settled for five field goals by Matt Prater. "Just not executing enough," Stafford told reporters. "Whether it’s me making a better throw or a guy making a catch or assignments in the run game - whatever it is, we’ve just got to execute better.”
POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0) - Packers (4) + home field (-3) = Packers +1
LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 2.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the Packers brought that line as low as +1 Sunday morning, before fading back to +2. The total hit the betting board at 43 and is up slightly to 43.5.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Detroit Lions will look to overcome one of the ugliest stains in the NFL as they look to improve on a 1-25 mark as a virus in this series. With Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines the Packers will try an overcome an equally ugly 0-3 SU and ATS record at home in games they played without Rodgers the last time he broke his collarbone in 2013." - Marc Lawrence.
INJURY REPORT:
Lions - RB Dwayne Washington (Questionable, Concussion), S Don Carey (Questionable, Knee), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Paul Worrilow (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Questionable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tim Lelito (I-R, Thigh).
Packers - TE Martellus Bennett (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Questionable, Ankle), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), LS Taybor Pepper (Questionable, Foot), LB Joe Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), S Morgan Burnett (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (Questionable, Back), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Migraine), OT Jason Spriggs (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Demetri Goodson (Questionable, Knee), LB Vince Biegel (Questionable, Monday)
ABOUT THE LIONS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game last Sunday, while Marvin Jones Jr. made six catches for the third consecutive contest, amassing 128 yards in the process. While the passing game traditionally has clicked under Stafford, Detroit's ground attack has been running in place as it has been 59 contests since the team had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Stafford actually has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts (101) and yards (369) for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48).
ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Hundley admitted a comfort level working with Rodgers as he prepares for his second career start. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Jordy Nelson is tied for second in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, but the stud wideout was limited to just one catch for 13 yards against the Saints while Randall Cobb has reeled in just five passes for 43 yards over the last two games.
TRENDS:
* Lions are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.
CONSENSUS: The road fave Lions are picking up 65 percent of the action on the spread and Under is grabbing 61 percent of the totals selections.
Dave Cokin
Brooklyn at Phoenix
Play: Brooklyn +1
Second meeting this season between Brooklyn and Phoenix. I imagine the Nets would like to forget that initial rendezvous. Since that’s not possible, the hope is that they’ll extract a bit of revenge this evening.
Phoenix won that earlier duel at Brooklyn by completely outworking the Nets. The Suns won all the stats, especially those I put more in the hustle category. Take rebounding, for instance. The Suns enjoyed a whopping 66-44 margin on the glass and that keyed everything else. Phoenix got better looks throughout the game, and let’s just say they shot it a lot better than did the Nets.
This isn’t a bad scheduling spot for Brooklyn, either. The Suns played yesterday and this will be their first game back home after a five game road swing. I don’t mind going against a team in this scenario, so that’s another little check mark for Brooklyn.
The downside is the Nets have dropped four in a row heading into this game. But it looks like a good spot for Brooklyn to snap that skid. I’d side with the Nets tonight.
Larry Ness
Red Wings vs. Canucks
Play: Canucks -150
Detroit comes in off a highly satisfying 4-0 win over the Oilers in Edmonton yesterday afternoon and suffice it to say, I believe it’ll suffer a classic letdown here.
The Canucks broke a small two game slide with a solid 4-2 win at home over the Penguins in their latest action. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom made 39 stops in that one and he’s expected to get the call here as well.
Jimmy Howard gets the nod for the visitors and he’s so far been decent, going 2-1 in his last three while allowing seven total goals.
I’ll point out though that despite yesterday’s win, the Red Wings are still just 1-4 in their last five on the road, while Vancouver is a near-perfect 4-1 in its last five against the Eastern Conference.
As mentioned off the top, I think Detroit comes in with “heavy legs” after its big road win yesterday. Consider the home side in this matchup.
Jimmy Boyd
Miami at Golden St
Play: Under 226½
I think we are getting some great value here on the total in Monday's late night non-conference tilt between the Heat and Warriors. With Golden State coming off a 127-point outburst in their last game against the Nuggets and the over being such a big public play in Warriors games, I think the books have inflated this total quite a bit.
Miami's playing well right now and just knocked off the Clippers 104-101 on the road yesterday. The Heat know they have no chance in beating the Warriors in a shootout. I expect them to try and slow this game down as much as they can. On top of that, they really have no choice but to play at a slower pace, as they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd road game in the last 4 days.
UNDER is 4-1 in Golden State's last 5 games after they scored more than 125 in their previous game and 10-4 in their last 14 home games against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-9 in the Heat's last 30 road games in the 1st half of the season and 13-2 in their last 15 off a close win by 3 points or less.
We also have a great system in play backing the UNDER in this contest. UNDER is 32-12 (73%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 220 or more with a road team off at least 1 win and the home team having won at least 2 in a row.
Jack Jones
Celtics vs. Hawks
Play: Celtics -8½
Quietly, the Boston Celtics have gone 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall since losing their first two games of the season. This team is playing with a ton of confidence now and clearly don't miss Gordon Hayward as much as most anticipated.
Now the Celtics should keep rolling against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks, who are 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS on the season. Six of their eight losses have come by double-digits, so they have rarely been competitive.
However, they shocked the Cleveland Cavaliers yesterday with a 117-115 road win as 11-point underdogs. But that win works in our favor here as this is now a massive letdown spot for the Hawks. They won't bring the same focus and intensity they played with against the Cavs last night.
The Celtics also played yesterday, but no player played more than 29 minutes, and 13 players saw game action. They'll still be fresh and ready to go tonight. The Hawks have an eight-man rotation and are missing several key players due to injury. The back-to-back situation hurts them more, and that should show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Ben Burns
Miami vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden St -15.5
After a sluggish start with just one cover in their first seven games, the Warriors have entered their stop-us-if-you-can-but-you-probably-can’t mode. In their last three they have dismantled two solid Western Conference opponents (Clippers, Spurs) and one pretty good one (Nuggets). All on the road. The offense has stepped it up a few notches, pouring in 380 points over the last three – and if the defense has yet to come together, what does it matter? Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green are all back on their games as GS starts a four-game homestand firing on all cylinders. This is a big line, but the Warriors look like they’re ready to go on one of their big runs – especially against an inconsistent Heat team playing the second half of a back-to-back set after beating the Clippers on Sunday.
Will Rogers
Miami vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden St -16
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors have been far from perfect to open the season, especially at home. After an eight-point loss to Detroit in their most recent home game on Oct. 29 (leaving them 2-2 at Oracle Arena to open the season), the Warriors have won road games at the Los Angeles Clippers, the San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets by an average of 22.3 PPG. Golden State returns hom 7-3 overall and will open a four-game homestand Monday against the Miami Heat. The 4-5 Heat will be playing the second half of a back-to-back for the first time this campaign, coming off a solid 104-101 victory at the Clippers last night, Miami's first road win of the season.
Miami: While Whiteside, now averaging 18.2 & 14.0 in four games was dominant, his fellow starters were a combined 9-of-26 from the floor. However, reserves like Tyler Johnson (19 points), Wayne Ellington (17) and James Johnson (14) stepped up. Whiteside is averaging 15.7 points and 11.3 rebounds in three games since returning from a knee issue. PG Dragic (19.3 PPG) leads seven Mimai players averaging in double figures.
Golden State: The Warriors connected on a season-high 18 three-pointers at Denver and shot 47.4 percent from beyond the arc on the road trip. Durant is at 62.5 percent from the floor over a four-game stretch during which the team has shot at least 51.8 percent in every contest. Steph Curry has averaged 24.7 points, while sinking 15 three-pointers in the team's three-game winning streak. Durant averaged 22.7 points, connecting on 25 of 42 shots (59.5 percent), Klay Thompson connected for nine 3-pointers among his 19.0 scoring average and Draymond Green enjoyed his best three-game stretch of the season, contributing 47 points, 21 rebounds and 20 assists.
The pick: Seems to me as if the Warriors have finally 'shaken out the cob webs' of a start that saw them open 1-6 ATS. Is it possible the team's China trip had anything to do with the team's slow start? Miami's win last night was its first on the road and the ATS win was only the team's second 'cover' in nine games. Lay the points with Golden State.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Boston
Pick: Boston -120
Suffice to say, the Bruins have been a bit of an early season disappointment, but you could say the same for the entire Atlantic Division save for the Lightning. The B's have played six consecutive games decided by one goal, winning only two of them. Three of those losses have occurred in overtime, however, so they've been a bit unlucky. Off a loss here at home to Washington on Saturday, I like Boston to rebound against similarly disappointing Minnesota.
The Wild were shutout Saturday night by the Blackhawks, at home no less. They were outshot 35-24 and thoroughly dominated in the contest. Now one thing Minnesota fans will lean on here is an 8-2 all-time record here in Boston. Last year, they shut the Bruins out in both meetings, home and away. I do not look for anything close to a repeat here. Zach Parise is still out, which hurts both literally and figuratively, plus this is Minnesota's first road game since 10.21.
A key here could be special teams. Boston ranks 4th both in penalty killing and on the power play. The Wild are below average in both areas. Goaltender Tuukka Rask is due to start playing better as well and I believe he'll lead his team to the two points tonight.
Jim Feist
Boston vs Atlanta
Pick: Under
The Boston Celtics are one of the hottest teams to start the season, off to a 7-2 start including a 4-1 road record. In fact, the Celtics lost their first two games of the season and since have won seven straight. Kyrie Irving, acquired in the offseason, is leading the club in scoring (22.1 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg). Former Atlanta Hawk Al Horford leads in field goal percentage (54.3). The Celtics are the top scoring defense in the league at just 93.8 ppg allowed. The Celtics have been a very good under club, going 5-20-2 O/U in their last 27 away games. In addition, they are 2-5 O/U their last seven games. The Atlanta Hawks are just 2-8 and in last in the Eastern Conference. They are 25th in scoring at 101.1 ppg. The Boston defense has been great and the Atlanta offense not so great. Boston can shutdown this Atlanta team today and I'm taking the UNDER.
Brandon Lee
Celtics vs. Hawks
Play: Hawks +8
I'm going to go against the red-hot Celtics in what I feel is a really tough spot for them. Boston comes in having won and covered in 8 straight games since their 0-2 start and this certainly feels like an inflated line given that Atlanta is laying just 3-poitns less at home than they were on the road at Cleveland yesterday. The Hawks pulled out a surprising 117-115 win over the Cavs as a 11-point dog to snap a 8-game losing streak. I look for them to carry over that momentum here against the Celtics, who will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and third road game over the last 4 days. Even with the win over Cleveland, Atlanta's not a team that's going to get the juices flowing for Boston and I think they struggle to put this away and wouldn't be shocked if the Hawks pulled off the upset at home. Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 following a SU win and Boston is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days rest.
John Martin
Celtics vs. Hawks
Play: Over 204½
The Atlanta Hawks clearly play zero defense. They have gone 4-0 to the OVER in their last four games overall while giving up at least 115 points in all four games. They have been keeping up offensively though, scoring at least 100 points in five consecutive games. The Celtics have scored at least 101 points in four straight. Boston should hang a big number on the Hawks tonight to help this game get up and OVER the 204.5-point total.