Rob Vinciletti
Brooklyn at Phoenix
Play: Brooklyn +1
The Suns must be wondering what the Schedule makers must have been thinking s they are coming home with no rest playing a 3rd in 4 night scenario off 7+ day 5 game road trip and getting lit up in San Antonio last night. The Nets meanwhile have 2 days of rest and have covered 41 of 60 vs Pacific division teams . The Suns are 2-10 ats vs losing teams and have failed to cover 12 of 14 at home off a road trip last night 7 or more days. Finally we see that non division rested road dogs that are off a road dog loss and scored 110 or more and allowed 110 or more vs an opponent off a road game have covered 23 of 29 since 1995. Play on Brooklyn plus the points tonight.
Dave Essler
Minnesota at Boston
Play: Minnesota
I don't do this very often, mainly due to lack of time. I happened to notice the line move towards the Wild and looked into it a bit. Boston had a ton of injuries and tonight they're without Brad Marchand as well. Boston is one of the few teams I do keep track of, seeing as how I grew up in Boston looking for ice time at 2AM when that's all you COULD get. The point is that I'm not NHL-naive by any means, and this is worth a marble.
Joey Juice
Monday night comp play will be the Lions to down the Packers at Lambeau Field.
Matt Stafford vs Brett Hundley is just not a fair fight.
I'm talking about one of the NFL's best passers against a mediocre stand-in at best.
Let's take a look at the numbers for some reassurances here...while Green Bay is a dominant 4-1 ATS last 5 in series, so too is the favorite, which is 16-5 ATS last 21 in this series.
No Rogers = No chance.
Bet Detroit.
2* DETROIT
Tommy Brunson
Monday night comp play will be the visiting Lions to win their division game against the Rodgers-less Packers.
Green Bay has had the week to work some things out now that Brett Hundley is entrenched as the starter for the injured Aaron Rodgers, but Hundley is certainly not in the class of Matthew Stafford, and even though the Lions are losers of 3 straight, tonight they stop that skid.
Detroit posted almost 500 yards of total offense in last Sunday night's home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, as they were held without a touchdown.
Expect the floodgates to open tonight for Stafford and his offense, as Green Bay's defense should be on the field for a longer period of time tonight and will eventually wear down.
Hundley may fire some scoring shots, but I doubt he fires enough to lead the home team to the mild upset. Let's face facts, there is only one Aaron Rodgers, and he will not be playing tonight.
Take Detroit.
3* DETROIT
Eric Schroeder
Revenge is on my mind for tonight's free play, as the Brooklyn Nets just lost to the Phoenix Suns at Barclays Center last week. Now the Nets will return the favor in Phoenix.
Last week, it sort of slapped the Nets upside the head, as the Suns used a 24-8 run over the final seven minutes to beat Brooklyn 122-114.
That was the second leg of a five-game road trip that ended last night, when Phoenix lost to the San Antonio Spurs 112-95.
The Nets are looking to get back on the winning track after losing four in a row, and this is the right spot. The Suns will be tired, while the Nets have been on the West coast and should be rested for this one.
Take Brooklyn.
5* NETS
Chris Jordan
Let's head to the nation's capital for tonight's free play, as I love the Washington Capitals on the puck line, over the visiting Arizona Coyotes. Trust me boys, this one won't even be close.
After losing their first 11 games, the Coyotes beat the Flyers in Philly, part of five-game junket on the East coast. They then lost at Detroit, before returning home for two games against Buffalo and Carolina, splitting those games.
Now they return to East coast for three games, beginning tonight. This will be Arizona's sixth road game in eastern standard time over the past 14 days. Which may not seem like a lot, but we're talking hockey, we're talking about some of the elite of the Eastern Conference, and we're talking ahout how bad the Coyotes have been.
Washington, meanwhile, has won two straight and has this home game sandwiched between visits to Boston and Buffalo. The Capitals knocked off the Bruins on Saturday, and head to Buffalo for their clash with the Sabres tomorrow night.
This will be treated like a scrimmage, for as bad as Arizona is, and how offensive the Caps can be.
Lay the puck line, as Washington rolls.
3* CAPITALS -1.5
Jack Brayman
My free winner for tonight is from the NHL, where I'm playing the Arizona Coyotes and Washington Capitals Over the posted number.
Washington has won back-to-back contests for the first time since opening the season with two straight victories, and this could be a sign of the team chemistry coming together for the first time in a month.
The Capitals will challenge the Coyotes, who knocked off Carolina 2-1 in a shootout on Saturday, and will have no choice but to find the right spots in the net to contend here. And it's not as if the Coyotes are not capable of playing in a high-scoring game, as they've gone high in five straight on the road.
With the total where it is, and the way the Caps are heavily favored, it's an indicator where this tally is going.
Arizona has gone over in eight of its last nine, while Washington has gone over in seven of its last nine against the Pacific Division.
Play this one high.
2* Coyotes/Capitals Over
Dave Price
Heat vs. Warriors
Play: Heat +15
The Miami Heat are playing much better now that Hassan Whiteside is healthy. He had missed 5 straight games before returning for the past 3 contests. The Heat beat the Bulls at home, pulled off the upset over the Clippers on the road yesterday, and only lost 94-95 to the Nuggets on the road after blowing a double-digit lead. They may lose to the Warriors tonight, but the price is too good to pass up with them catching 15 points here. Bets against any team (Golden State) off 3 straight covers as a favorite in November games are 32-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Warriors shouldn't be laying this many points tonight.
Teddy Covers
Boston vs. Atlanta
Play: Boston -7½
Do Not Miss Teddy's One & Only NFL Game of the YEAR on Monday Night! Teddy is riding a smokin’ 80% NFL Run over the last 3+ weeks; cashing at a 66% clip in the NFL since Week 1. Plus, Teddy is a perfect 6-0 on Monday Night Football this year. Get onboard NOW!
The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward five minutes into the season. Boston lost on opening night, then lost the following night at home to Milwaukee. The betting markets immediately devalued Boston; a team with a whole host of new faces just learning to play with one another. That was a mistake!
Head coach Brad Stevens has worked his magic. The Celtics haven’t lost since that defeat to the Bucks on the second night of the season. That includes road wins, by margin, at Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Miami, Orlando and OKC; all of whom are better than the bottom feeder Hawks team they’ll face today.
The Celtics enter Sunday with the #1defense in the NBA, allowing fewer than 96 points per 100 possessions. That’s bad news for a Hawks team that ranks #26 in offensive efficiency this season. Other than veteran point guard Dennis Schroder, this is not a team loaded with playmakers. When the Hawks aren’t draining three’s, they’re a rough team to watch (or bet on). And, frankly, not many teams are draining three’s against this stout Boston defense these days.
The Celtics are set up extremely well for the second night of back-2-backs. No starter reached 30 minutes against the Magic yesterday, and 13 different players saw the floor, leaving them relatively fresh here. That stands in sharp contrast to the Hawks level of ‘freshness’ this evening.
Atlanta is coming off an outright upset at Cleveland yesterday, a big win for a VERY young basketball team. They barely hung on to their double digit lead during crunch time – intense minutes. Head coach Mike Budenholzer went with an eight man rotation in that upset, with four starters on the wrong side of 30+ minutes. They’re both ‘fat and happy’ off a signature win and relatively tired; unable to get the job done in either previous back-2-back spot this season. Road chalk worth laying!
SPORTS WAGERS
GREEN BAY +2½ over Detroit
On a Sunday where the market feasted with easy winners like the Eagles, Jaguars, Rams, Saints and Cardinals all covering against weaker competition, tonight’s matchup between the Lions and the Rodgerless Packers looks like another gift. In his only start so far this season backup quarterback Brett Hundley threw for just 87 yards with an interception against the Saints. After struggling in relief (three picks) against the Vikings, Hundley has sunk the Packs’ stock and while we aren’t usually in favor of the bye week, it could not have come at a better time for Green Bay. Hundley is obviously not Rodgers and the Packers need to change the game plan to fit the new QB's game. Against the Vikings and Saints, the Green Bay offense was still focused on the pass, but with two quality runners in the backfield and a pair of giddy-up sticks of his own, Hundley should lean much more on the run. The bye week also gave the Packers a chance to get over the Rodgers injury and get ready for the second half. Just look at the Texans after Deshaun Watson went down that week. The team was lifeless and the stadium was a morgue. By now the Packers have worked through their grief and has accepted this as the team they have moving forward.
The Lions have been a favorite target for Rodgers over the years so we can understand the narrative that this a prime opportunity to get some revenge after losing three straight in this series, but Detroit has issues of its own. The Leos offense is taking a ton of heat for going 0-5 in the red zone last Sunday night at home against the Steelers. A look under the hood shows a negative DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) offense at just -7.6%, which has them keeping company with Giants, Broncos two squads that were destroyed on Sunday. They say money can’t buy you happiness but the Lions brass was probably hoping for more from their franchise quarterback Matt Stafford, who they rewarded with the leagues’ highest salary in the offseason. Stafford is just 19th in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), 20th in total QB DVOA at -0.5% which is worse than the Jags’ Blake Bortles who nobody would consider to be an elite QB. The Lions run game has been nonexistent, ranking 28th in rush yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48). Stafford actually leads this crew with a 5.2 YPC average. A deeper look shows the struggle is real, as Detroit is 30th in running DVOA at -22.5%. The Lions defense has received some positive press and while they rank fifth in total yards allowed, those surface stats can be deceiving. Detroit is just 22nd in yards allowed per game at 346.1 and much of its success has been based on turnovers. The Lions are third in turnover differential at +7, but getting the bounces is not a skill and winning the turnover battle is not the foundation of a solid defensive game plan.
While not all things are equal, with a healthy Rodgers, the Packers were a six-point home favorite in this spot last season and now Green Bay is taking back 2½-points with #12 on the sidelines. Bad quarterbacks like Tom Savage, C.J. Beathard and Brock Osweiler were easy fade material on Sunday and now here’s Brett Hundley served up on a silver platter in prime time. We can understand the appeal of the Lions in this spot. On paper, it looks like a total QB mismatch and the fact you can cash your ticket with a three-point Lions’ win makes this bet all the more enticing. We lean to the Packers but this game will not make our slate tonight. (No bets)
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -106 over BOSTON
OT included. Boston is 5-4-3 after 12 games while the Wild are dead last in the Central at 5-5-2. However, according to the Sagarin Rating, Boston has played the easiest schedule in the NHL, which makes some of its under the hood numbers quite alarming. The B’s 1.93 xGoals For/60 is the fourth worst mark in the NHL. That coincides with their 25th ranking in high danger scoring chances for. The Bruins are not playing well enough to win or to string together some wins. As the chalk and now without several key players (David Backes and David Krejci among others), they are instant fade material against anyone when they are favored. Lastly, Boston’s usually reliable goaltender, Tuukka Rask has been in a two-year decline and is showing no signs of getting back to his formerly dominant self. Rask is a replacement level goaltender now.
Minnesota is playable here for so many reasons besides the one’s mentioned above. First, they are the superior team taking back a tag. Secondly, this road trip is one that couldn’t come soon enough, as the Wild have been home for six games over 12 days. This road trip ties for the longest of the season in terms of games — four in six days and after an unsatisfying 3-3 home stand, it will be important to get off to a good start. Teams’ often play their best in the first game of a trip in an attempt to set a tone for the rest of it. Finally, after enduring numerous injuries to key players in the first month of the season, the Wild have some healthy bodies back with the exception of Charlie Coyle and Zach Parise. Wild HC, Bruce Boudreau, has never finished below 100 points in any of his seasons with any of the teams he’s coached. That shows the heavy emphasis he puts on regular season games and consistency throughout the entire season. Despite their pedestrian record, the Wild have not lost consecutive games in regulation all season long and that was without several key players. Situationally, this one sets up well for the dog, as they embark on their first road trip of the year, they have the superior goaltending and overall, they’re the superior team.
Arizona +184 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Things seem to be back to normal in Washington, as the Caps have won three of their last four games with only loss over that span being a 2-1 setback in Calgary. The Caps are now 7-6-1 after a slow start but contrary to what the results suggest, things are not back to normal. Not even close. In its last home game, Washington beat the Islanders 4-3 but got outshot 38-19. That was a luck-driven result. In Boston in their last game, the Caps won 3-2 but once again were the second best team on the ice. The Caps have been out-chanced (high danger scoring chances) by an incredible combined count of 34-18 over its last three games. The Caps Corsi For % numbers over that time was pitifully low too, just as they have been all year. The Caps xGA average ranks near the bottom of the league and in the same range as teams like Detroit, the Rangers and Buffalo. This is not the same team that has dominated the regular season for years. This edition of the Caps is a fraction of what those teams were in all areas except goaltending. On their best day, the Caps are now beatable and we’ll continue to fade them when they’re overpriced like they are here.
Trust us when we suggest that the Coyotes and Caps could just as easily own each other’s record. In other words, the Coyotes could be a game over .500 and the Caps could be nine games under because of luck, be it poor or fortunate. There is such a fine line between winning and losing in this game that the above could apply to almost all teams. The Devils are not playing well enough to be 9-3. The Sens have some of the worst puck possession numbers in the NHL and they’re 6-3-5 after 14 games when they could easily be or should be more in the neighborhood of 2-12. We could run through the entire 31 teams and discuss some of their luck-driven results, which brings us to Arizona. The Coyotes are not dominating play but they are not the worst team in the league either. They have taken two minor penalties or less in eight of its past 10 games, which shows a strong commitment to discipline or staying out of the box. They rank ahead of the Caps in Corsi For %, and amazingly enough, the ‘Yotes have scored the first goal more times than any team in the NHL. The Coyotes have scored first in 11 of their 15 games, which is not conducive to losing so many games. Arizona is not playing poorly. It is simply not getting the bounces or strong goaltending. The best news however, is that the market will continue to be heavily influenced by results, which will continue to provide us with opportunities like this.
Harry Bondi
Lions / Packers Under 42.5
We hit our fourth-straight free pick yesterday with the under in the Atlanta -Carolina game and we’ll play another under tonight. With Aaron Rodgers sidelined, the Packers aren’t going to be looking to get into any kind of shootout tonight, so expect a run-oriented, conservative game plan. Meanwhile, the Pack defense has had great success against QB Matthew Stafford during his career. Not only is Stafford 3-10 lifetime against his division rival, but in those 13 game he’s led the Lions offense to more than 24 points just three times. Defense rules at Lambeau tonight. Go under!
Bob Balfe
Lions -2 & Over 42.5
This is a very interesting game because the backups mean much more in this game. Green Bay will start Brett Hundley at QB filling in for Aaron Rodgers. Two weeks ago before the bye Hundley did not throw one deep ball. If the Packers are to have a chance they have to take the training wheels off and let him throw since the running game is not producing at a level that can win football games. Green Bay had two weeks to prepare so I do believe they will pull out some tricks and put a few points up on the board. The main thing that will be overlooked tonight is that the Packers don’t have a second unit on defense due to injuries and lack of experience. You can’t find one team in the NFL that is this thin outside of the starters on defense. When the Lions have the ball they should be able to take advantage as the game gets deeper and subs come in. The Lions red zone offense has struggled, but they get major relief tonight going against one of the worst red zone defenses in the NFL. Matt Stafford struggles against Green Bay as he is just 3-10 vs them, but this is a golden change to get that monkey off his back tonight. Detroit is a much better football team right now and the only way Green Bay wins this game is bye the flukiest of events. Detroit should turn Hundley over a few times for points and win this game.
OC Dooley
Nets / Suns Under 234.5
At most offshore locations this total opened up at 236' points but the DROP in the spot to me speaks volumes since both Phoenix (averaging 110 points per game the past five games) and Brooklyn (averaging 114 and allowing 119 points per game) constantly go "above" the number. There is a FATIGUE factor to consider as Phoenix is just returning from a 5-game road swing. In the past TWO YEARS after scoring 105+ points in 3 consecutive games Brooklyn is 12-2 UNDER