Free Picks for Monday, November 7th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Sleepyj
Boston -160
I feel this is a pretty good spot for the bruins here at home...First off they just lost on Saturday to the Rangers...Then a day off Sunday, but have to deal with Montreal tomorrow...So it's a good sandwich spot IMO...They need this win and getting Rask in the the net gives them that shot...Rask lost his last time out as he was attacked every which way against the Rangers..he should feel good here and I expect a very good outing with a days rest...Goaltending for Buffalo has been really good, but I wonder how long it's going to last with this current stretch...Buffalo now with two road games in a row might tire late in thsi one...Buffalo offense doesn't score me at all..Slow grinding team that struggles to find the net...I feel the home team gets the nods with a goalie that is off a bad outing shows up..Buffalo has had some good success, but at some point one of these goalies for Buffalo is going to have a bad outing..I'm thinking it's tonight...Also like the under as well...I'll prob end up playing both for a unit..Waiting on the total to see if it ticks up to 5.5.
Rob Vinciletti
Pelicans vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -17
Golden St will likely bounce back off the Laker loss and blowout the win less Pelicans tonight. They have covered 4 of the last 5 here against them winning comfortably. Conference home favorites of 10 or more with a total of 190 or more that lost and failed to cover as a 10+ point road favorites are winning by an average 23 points per game and covering 88% since 1995. look for the Warriors to come out and play tonight.
Bob Harvey
Utah at Philadelphia
Play: Under 193½
The Philadelphia 76ers will look to parlay a “near miss” against the defending champions, into their first victory of the year when they host the Utah Jazz. Game time is set for 7 PM ET at Wells Fargo Center.
Philly (0-5, 3-2 ATS) came close to picking up its first W of the season before falling to the Cleveland Cavaliers 102-101 on Friday. Rookie Joel Embiid scored 22 points against Cleveland and is averaging 18.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and three blocks per game. Recently acquired Ersan Ilyasova has been solid in his first two games with Philadelphia, averaging 17.5 points including a 21 point performance against Cleveland.
The Jazz (3-3, 2-4 ATS) began a five-game road trip with a 114-109 victory in New York on Sunday as Gordon Hayward, who suffered a broken finger in training camp, scored 28 points in his season debut. The Jazz posted their season high in points with Hayward back and have won three of their last four contests.
The Jazz have won the last seven meetings in the series, including a 99-71 triumph at Philadelphia last October.
The Sixers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 16-4-1 ATS past 21 vs. Northwest Division. The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall and 2-5 vs. the number in their last seven vs. the Atlantic Division.
The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five series meetings. Philadelphia is 5-0 to the UNDER in its last 5 against the NBA Northwest. The 76ers are also 6-0 to the low side in their past 6 vs. the Western Conference.
Jim Feist
Pelicans at Warriors
Pick: Over
New Orleans still looking for its first win of the season, and I will venture to say it won't happen tonight. The Pelicans are off to a 0-6 start and allowing 107.5 ppg. It's bad enough that the Pelicans have to face the Warriors here tonight, but they face a Golden State team coming off an embarrassing loss at the Lakers, 117-97. The Warriors looked very tired in that loss in LA. Their shots constantly came up short and the fatigue was evident as they played their third game in four night. Tonight they have two days off to get their legs back and that will means lots of points here by the Warriors. I don't like fading that 17 point line, but I don't mind playing the OVER. Look for lots of points here tonight.
Ben Burns
Lightning vs. Panthers
Play: Panthers +105
Naturally, I respect the Lightning. They're one of the stronger teams in the league; I've successfully backed them a few times already this season and won with them in their last game, a 4-1 win over the Devils. That said, I feel they're in for a tough fight tonight. While they've had some trouble on the road, including a loss at Tampa back on 10/18, the Panthers are playing well here at home. They've won four of six games here, outscoring opponents by an average of 3.0 to 2.2. Tampa is a money-burning 36-36 (-11.8 ) the past couple of seasons, after a win by two more goals. During that stretch, the Panthers are a profitable 50-41 (+13.6) when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. I like their chances tonight and am expecting their best effort.
Mike Lundin
Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +7½
The Philadelphia 76ers are still looking for their first win of the season, but they've been competitive home at Wells Fargo Center where they're 3-1 ATS on the season. The 76ers gave the reigning NBA champions the Cavaliers a scare in a 102-101 home defeat on Saturday, and I think they'll give Utah Jazz a tough game Monday night.
The Jazz are coming straight off a 114-109 victory over the Knicks in New York on Sunday. They had to come from behind to earn the victory as they trailed by 10 points after the first quarter, and odds are they'll come out sluggish in the early goings of tonight's contest. The 76ers are per usual one of the worst teams in the NBA, but they should never be underestimated when playing in front of the home town crowd. Taking the points on the home team is without a doubt the best bet for this game IMO.
Marc Lawrence
Bills at Seahawks
Play: Bills
Edges - Bills: 7-1 ATS off BB SUATS losses after facing New England; and 5-1-1 ATS as Monday Night dogs of 6 or more points. Seahawks: 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS ingress before facing New England; and 1-4 ATS last five games in this series. With Seattle having been out-yarded in each of its last three games, and Pete Carroll 0-5 ATS as a favorite off a SU favorite loss in non-division games versus .750 or less opponents in his NFL career.
Brandon Lee
Magic vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls -6
I like this spot a lot with Chicago at home against the Magic. The Bulls are undervalued after losing their last 3 games and Orlando comes in overvalued after winning 3 straight. The key here is the Magic beat the 76ers, Kings and Wizards without John Wall. Chicago is poised for a big bounce back effort here and are clearly the more talented team. The Bulls rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the Magic are just 22nd. Chicago's defense hasn't been great, but I'm expecting a huge effort on that side of the ball given they have lost their last 3. I just don't see Orlando being able to keep pace offensively in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
Orlando at Chicago
Play: Over 201½
This total has dropped significantly from an opener of 205.5 down to as low as 199.5 as of late morning Monday and this surprising move has opened up some great line value on the over. The Magic are off of a very low-scoring win at Washington but the Wizards sat John Wall and shot just 39.5% from the field. Prior to that game, Orlando had allowed shooting of 47.5% or better in 4 of their first 5 games. The Bulls have been wanting to play at a faster pace this season but they have been held to 44% or less from the field in 3 straight games. Look for things to open up against an Orlando team that is not known for defense. Chicago has allowed 111.7 points per game in their last 3 games and I look for that trend to continue here. Most books still have this total at 200 and I expect it settle out in a range between 200 and 204.5 points. In that range the Bulls have gone 13-5 to the over the past two seasons! Look for another high-scoring game tonight to add to that streak.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockets vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -1½
Washington is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Rockets. The Wizards come in at just 1-4 through their first 5 games and just loss at Orlando in their last game. The key thing to keep in mind with the loss to the Magic, is they were playing on no rest and without star point guard John Wall, who is no playing in back-to-back games early on. Prior that loss, they beat Atlanta at home as a similar 1.5-point favorite to what we see here against the Rockets.
I'm just not buying into Houston. They are 3-3 with their 3 wins coming against the Mavericks (twice) and Knicks. Last time out they got the Hawks on no rest and still lost 97-112 as a 3-point dog. The problem with the Rockets is they don't play defense. They come in 3rd to last in defensive efficiency, which makes it tough to go on the road and beat a quality team like Washington, who is going to come out hungry given their poor start. It's also important to note that Houston has in the midst of a brutal schedule to start the season, as this will be their 4th straight and 6th road game in their first 7 games of the season.
Jack Jones
Miami at Oklahoma City
Play: Oklahoma City -5
This is a very generous price to get the Oklahoma City Thunder at home tonight as only 5-point favorites over the Miami Heat. We'll take advantage and back the Thunder as Monday's free pick.
Oklahoma City is 5-1 this season. Its only loss came on the road to the Golden State Warriors, which is obviously forgivable. The Thunder's last two home games have resulted in blowout wins over the Timberwolves by 20 as 4.5-point favorites and the Lakers by 17 as 8.5-point favorites.
The Miami Heat are clearly in rebuilding mode as they are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season. Their only wins have come over the Magic and Kings. When they have stepped up the level of competition, they have lost all three of their games by at least six points each to the Hornets, Spurs and Raptors.
The Heat are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference opponents. The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, including wins by 25 and 18 points by Oklahoma City.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +6½ over SEATTLE
This is really a tough game to pick a side for several reasons. First, we have the Seahawks, a team that doesn’t score many points so spotting near a converted TD with them is risky business. Russell Wilson hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 4 and has just five touchdowns all season. That high-flying Seattle passing offense of last year is so different from what we have seen this year. The defense is still formidable though not unbeatable but again, the offense is not giving them any help. Furthermore, the Bills defense has been quietly very good. Until their comeuppance with Tom Brady, the Bills held all opponents to a total of just four passing touchdowns over seven games. Before losing to New England and the suddenly upstart Dolphins the past two games, Buffalo did have a four-game winning streak. Therefore it would appear that taking the points may be the prudent choice here.
The problems with Buffalo extend deep. First, Buffalo is one of those undisciplined teams that take a ton of penalties and that’s a big problem playing at this venue, especially on a Monday night. Secondly, Buffalo’s offense is completely one-dimensional. The Bills simply cannot pass the ball because Tyrod Taylor is brutal and Buffalo’s receivers are brutal. It is a rare day when a Bills’ receiver catches balls for 50 yards or more in a single game. The Bills lack big play potential but they have scored 31, 33, 30, 45, 25 and 25 points respectively in six of the past seven weeks. Frankly, we find that remarkable because an offense this poor should not be putting up points like that. With Sean McCoy’s questionable tag upgraded to playing, Buffalo instantly gets better.
When we look at Seattle and its schedule, we see very little credibility. The Seahawks barely defeated Week 1 Miami (12-10) as a 10-point choice. Its other three wins were against the Jets, 49ers and Falcons. Seattle’s only credible win was against Atlanta but that was a hugely favorable spot for Seattle and the Seahawks barely hung on. In its 6-6 tie versus Arizona, Seattle was completely dominated for 60 minutes and ended up with the luckiest tie game in the history of sports. Seattle has simply not done enough to get our endorsement. This is a simple case of too many points. The only teams the Seahawks have beaten by more than a touchdown this year are the 49ers and Jets, quite possibly two of the worst three teams in the NFL. We are passing on this one because it just doesn’t look strong enough for a wager but if forced to bet, we would take the Bills. Recommendation: Buffalo +6½ (no bets).
SPORTS WAGERS
Vancouver +165 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
We’re not ready to throw in the towel on the struggling Canucks just yet. Vancouver is coming off a tough game in Toronto on Saturday night but they did manage to score three goals. Prior to Saturday, Vancouver played in Ottawa and Montreal and was the better team on the ice in both games. They lost 1-0 to Ottawa and 3-0 to Montreal but outshot the Habs, 42-21. They also outshot and out-chanced the Sens. Vancouver continues to work hard and play well but they can’t catch a break. They are not an eight-loss in a row team and they are on the verge of snapping out of it. The Canucks are also getting solid netminding from both of their goaltenders. Hard work, solid goaltending and a strong Corsi against mark will lead to some victories for sure and this could very easily be Vancouver’s day.
The Islanders simply cannot be favored in this range because they are just not good enough. The Islanders rank dead last in Corsi against, meaning no team allows more shots directed at the net than the Islanders. That was with Travis Hamonic and Johnny Boychuk both healthy and playing. Well, take Hamonic out of the equation (thumb injury) and possibly Boychuk too and things are not going to get better for this host no matter how you break it down. The Islanders have weak goaltending. They were badly outshot by Philly and TB before losing to Edmonton on Saturday. We also love that the Islanders are heading out for a road trip to Florida after being home for nine games in its past 10 including four straight. Being at home for that long is rarely beneficial. During five-on-five play the Islanders rank 22nd in goals surrendered and 28th in puck-possession. Conversely, the Canucks rank 8th and 20th respectively. Again, the Islanders cannot be favored in this range, as they have the exact same record (4-8 ) as the Canucks and Vancouver is hungrier. Big overlay here.
Power Sports
Indiana vs. Charlotte
Pick: Indiana
Charlotte is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS), but their list of opponents hardly qualifies as a "murderer's row." The four wins have come against Milwaukee, Miami, Brooklyn and Philadelphia, all of whom project to finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Laying points to Indiana, I feel as if the value is on the other side.
The Pacers have won all three home games, but are 0-3 SU/ATS on the road. I'll call for that striking dichotomy to end here though as I have to imagine the defense will start improving. Opponents have shot 51.2% against them in those three road games, which seems like an awfully high percentage. I like what I saw Saturday against Chicago, whom they blew out 111-94. That was in fact their finest defensive effort of the young season thus far.
Charlotte swept last year's season series and two of the wins were in Indiana. That's impressive, but not sustainable. I don't seen any reason why one of these seemingly evenly matched teams would be able to dominate the other on a consistent basis. Speaking of "not sustainable," teams have shot just 41.5% against the Hornets so far! That's insane. I look for the Pacers to turn in their most complete road effort to date here.