Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, October 10th, 2016

DAVE COKIN

BUCS AT PANTHERS
PLAY: OVER 45.5

No Cam Newton for the Panthers tonight, but I don’t see that having a great impact on the total as two struggling NFC South entries have at it.

Neither of these teams has been sharp to start the season, and at 1-3 each this is sort of a must win for both the Bucs and Panthers. Fact is, the Atlanta Falcons are on a roll and neither team an afford to slip yet another game behind that hot team.

Derek Anderson will be under center for Carolina, and while he’s clearly not Newton, there’s no reason the veteran backup can’t put up good numbers against a bad Buccaneers defense that has been unable to generate much of a pass rush.

This is also a good opportunity for Jameis Winston to snap out of his early season doldrums. Winston has been pretty lousy thus far, but he also will be likely to enjoy more time to scan the field tonight, as Carolina is not getting to opposing QB’s.

I would imagine we will see the ball in the air on a frequent basis tonight. As noted, neither team is putting together a fearsome pass rush. The running games for the Bucs and Panthers have been doing much overland. Tampa Bay hasn’t even had one 100-yard rushing game to date. The Panthers had just 49 net rushing yards last week and Newton is their leading ground gainer.

The first impulse for some might be to look at the Under with Newton sitting the game out for the Panthers. But I’m more focused on the two substandard defenses, the nondescript sack numbers and the mediocre running games. I think the ball will be in the air early and often and expect both teams to move the ball consistently. That adds up to a call on the Over.

Rob Vinciletti

Nationals vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -146

The Dodgers have won 5 straight here at home vs Washington. The Nationals are 0-6 as a road dog off a home win where they scored 5+ runs. The pitching favors LA as well. Maeda has won 6 straight home starts. Gio Gonzalez for the Nationals is 4-12 on the road with a 4.69 era. he is 0-3 of late with a 8.31 Era. Look for the Dodgers to bounce back and take game three.

Larry Ness

Cleveland vs. Boston
Pick: Boston

The Cleveland Indians have opened a 2-0 lead on the Boston Red Sox, winning 5-4 in Game 1 (Indians hit three Solo HRs off Porcello in the third inning!) and then 6-0 in Game 2, as Corey Kluber came up big with seven scoreless innings, while David Price’s postseason woes continued (five ERs allowed over 3.1 innings). There have been 28 teams which have rallied from 0-2 to win an LDS, including two Boston teams. The Red Sox did it to the Indians in 1999 and to the Oakland A’s in 2003. Cleveland manager Terry Francona knows his team is up 2-0 in this best-of-five series but cautioned, "The atmosphere is going to be a little different come Sunday."

The Game 3 starters are Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA) for Cleveland and Clay Buchholz (8-10, 4.78 ERA) for Boston. Both of these pitchers were banished to the bullpen during the regular season because of poor performances but both have pitched better recently. Tomlin posted a 1.75 ERA in his final four appearances during the regular season, after briefly being demoted to the bullpen in early September. Truth be told, Tomlin is likely making this postseason start primarily because injuries have sidelined both Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Buchholz made three appearances out of the bullpen in late August but then the team won four of his five September starts, including him posting a 1.42 ERA in hid final three starts.

The Red Sox led all of MLB in runs scored (5.42 RPG), BA (.282) and OPS (.810) during the regular season but stars Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. have gone a combined 4-for-36 (.011) in the first two games. David Ortiz told reporters, "We're getting our (butts) beat. Nothing to celebrate. It's part of the game, man, but I know we're better than that." The Red Sox are better than they’ve played and here at Fenway, they’ve averaged

Jim Feist

Chicago at San Francisco
Pick: Under

The SF Giants are in a win or your done spot here for game three on Monday. The Giants will turn to their ace, Madison Bumgarner to keep their post season hopes alive. The Cubs have pretty much shut down the Giants offense, winning game one 1-0 and game two, 5-2. Now the Giants face the Cubs' Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is 18-8 on the season with a 3.10 ERA. Meanwhile, Bumgarner had a great outing in the Wildcard game against the Mets, allowing no runs over nine complete innings. Bumgarner has been gold in the postseason, compiling a 8-3 record in 13 starts, with a 1.94 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. This looks to be another great pitcher's duel, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see another 1-0 final.

Brandon Lee

Red Sox -144

I just don't believe the Red Sox are going to get swept by the Indians, not with Game 3 at home. Boston might be in a big hole, but this team isn't going to push the panic button and I look for them to respond in a big way on Sunday. The Red Sox will give the ball to Clay Buchholz, who closed out the season throwing like an ace, posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Going back over his last 7 starts, Buchholz has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 of those outings. I'll take my chances with Buchholz and the Red Sox offense at home against the Indians Josh Tomlin, who I just don't trust in this spot. Tomlin had a 4.31 ERA in 15 road starts and was really struggling before getting to face the White Sox and Royals slumping offenses 4 times in his last 4 starts. More times than not, when Tomlin has faced a potent offense like Boston, he's struggled to get the job done.

Jimmy Boyd

Giants -125

San Francisco is showing some solid value here at home on Monday. The Giants may be down 0-2 in the series, but with Madison Bumgarner on the mound for Game 3, this team believes they can turn this series around. I think it's a long shot that SF rallies to win the final 3 games of the series, but it's hard to not like their chances of winning tonight.

Bumgarner has been the best postseason starter of this generation and was sensational in the Wild Card game against the Mets, throwing a complete game shutout. If that wasn't enough, Bumgarner has owned the Cubs in his career. He's 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 12 starts. That includes 2 starts against them this season, where he went 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA.

Chicago counters with last year's Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta, who went 16-9 with a 2.67 ERA in 35 starts this season. The key here is that Arrieta was not the same dominant pitcher in the 2nd half of this season, as he was in the 1st half and most of last year. He had just a 3.59 ERA in 15 road starts and 5.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last 3 starts.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay/CAROLINA Over 45½

NFL over/unders are usually not our preference but we trust we’re getting a very beatable number here due to Cam Newton being out. Derek Anderson was more than capable last week when he stepped in and completed 17 of 23 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns against two interceptions. At home versus a soft defense, Anderson should at least maintain the offense. The Bucs surrendered 40 points to the Cardinals, 37 to the Rams and 27 to the punchless Broncos. While most are focusing on the loss of Cam Newton, we’re suggesting that the loss of Gerald McCoy on the Bucs defensive line is more devastating to the Bucs than Newton’s injury is to the Panthers. Anderson should have all day to throw and Tampa’s cover schemes are about the worst in the NFL.

The battle of the 1-3 records wasn't supposed to include the Panthers but here we are. That dominating defense from 2015 must still be at the NFC Championship game. The Panthers have played three pedestrian offenses in the 49ers, Vikes and Broncos and allowed San Francisco to score 27 points. When they played the Falcons last week, Atlanta was eating up chunks of yardage at a time and racked up 48 points. That’s good news for Tampa is that its offense continues to put up solid numbers but then shoot themselves in the foot with a turnover or penalty. Tampa is having no trouble moving the sticks. This one has all the makings of a shootout but it’s not priced like one and therefore we’ll look to take advantage.

SPORTS WAGERS

CLEVELAND +150 over Boston

This should be a pretty fun series. The Red Sox are up against their old manager, their old “high-leverage specialist” and their old first basemen. The Indians are up against the best offense in baseball and one of the best postseason performers of all time but there’s only one real storyline that matters here: which 2016 employer of Michael Martinez will win?Generally there is only one lineup to consider but the Red Sox and (especially) Indians run out different enough squads that one has to consider both teams vs. RHP and LHP.

Thanks to all the info out there, we know that the Red Sox have the best offense in baseball. Boston finished first in runs, first in total bases, first in doubles and first in average, OBP and slugging in 2016. The Indians are no slouches when it comes to swinging the bats either, though. Cleveland finished fifth in runs scored, third in doubles, sixth in average, eighth in OBP and ninth in slugging. Cleveland does have an edge when it comes to stealing bases (134 to 83), but the Sox have plenty of players who can go first-to-third with ease.

Expect lots of platoons in this series. The Red Sox generally start Brock Holt (3B) and Andrew Benintendi (LF) against righties, while Aaron Hill and Chris Young get that honor against southpaws. For the Indians, expect Lonnie Chisenhall (RF) and Tyler Naquin (CF) to suit up against righties and Brandon Guyer and Coco Crisp (sometimes) to appear against left-handed pitchers.

Cleveland has a well-balanced lineup full of guys who can take you deep, guys who can run and guys who aren’t afraid to work the count. But there is no more dangerous offensive squad in the playoffs than Boston, which, on a good night, can run out seven hitters the Indians should legitimately fear.

Benches (AVG/OBP/SLG)

Let’s assume the bench players here are the ones who don’t appear in the vs. RHP lineups, both because RHP are more prevalent and because lefties are inherently evil.

Red Sox

C-R Christian Vazquez: .227/.227/.308
1B/3B-L Travis Shaw: .242/.306/.421/
3B/2B-R Aaron Hill: .218/.287/.290/(with BOS)
INF-L Marco Hernandez: .294/.357/.373/
OF-R Chris Young: .276/.352/.498/

Indians

C-R Roberto Perez: .183/.285/.294/
C/1B-R Chris Gimenez: .216/.272/.331/
UT-S Michael Martinez: .242/.265/.316/
OF-S Coco Crisp: .208/.323/.377/
OF-R Brandon Guyer: .333/.438/.469/

All we can say is...meh. Young and Shaw can come off the bench to sock dingers against opposite-side pitching, and both provide a modicum of defensive value as well. Vazquez is on this roster for one reason; to help shut down the Indians’ impressive base-running game, which we mentioned above. At this point the Exxon Valdez has more left in the tank than Aaron Hill, but he has somehow come up with several big hits for Boston, even if his overall performance has been dismal. Hernandez can serve as a pinch runner and as something more than a total loss at the plate. Disclaimer: I’m writing this before the Red Sox announce their roster, and it’s possible Hernandez won’t be on it, which probably won’t matter. m

For the Indians, Guyer and Crisp are good fourth and fifth outfielders. They can mash taters/serve as a solid platoon option (Guyer) and go get it in the outfield/steal you a base (Crisp). But the rest of this bench is pretty lackluster. Martinez’s best skill is that he can do a lot of things only kind of poorly. Perez and Gimenez are both perfectly acceptable backup catchers, but it’s not entirely clear why the Indians feel compelled to roster both. Let’s just say it would be a surprise if this series was decided by anyone on either of these benches.

Starting Pitchers (IP, ERA, DRA)

Red Sox

RHP - Rick Porcello: 223, 3.15, 3.46
LHP - David Price: 230, 3.99, 2.90
RHP - Clay Buchholz: 139.3, 4.78, 6.08
LHP - Eduardo Rodriguez: 107, 4.71, 5.10

Indians

RHP - Trevor Bauer: 190, 4.26, 4.11
RHP - Corey Kluber: 215, 3.14, 2.96
RHP - Josh Tomlin: 174, 4.40, 4.16

This series will feature three of the top-15 starters by xERA (min 100 IP) in the AL in Porcello, Price and Kluber. It will also feature some less-than-inspiring names so let’s tackle the more talented trio first.

In Porcello and Price, the Red Sox have a legitimate 1-2 punch to throw at Cleveland. Porcello is in the midst of a breakout season, posting 4.9 WARP on the back of his solid xERA, a career-best IP mark and a career-low BB/9. He’s not the groundball machine he used to be, but he’s taken steps forward this year when it comes to command and sequencing. He lacks an elite ceiling, but he’s about as steady as it gets. Price had a very rough start to the season, but from July on he’s been one of the better starters in the AL, posting a 3.33 ERA with a 108/25 K/BB ratio in 120 IP. However, October is a different animal and we know all about Price’s postseason struggles. We’ll find out if it’s just a narrative but we’re not ignoring it. He’s not the first pitcher to thrive in the regular season and subsequently struggle in the post-season and he won’t be the last.

While Price has the slight edge in xERA, most would agree that Kluber is the best starter who’ll toe the rubber in this series. He’s coming off a 5.9-WARP season, his second-best ever, and while he recently missed a week or so with a quad injury, all reports indicate that he’s ready to go. He could be exactly what the doctor ordered against a Red Sox lineup that relies predominantly on right-handed impact bats.

You might prefer Bauer and Tomlin to Buchholz and Rodriguez on first glance, but in reality these pairs of arms are trending in opposite directions. Bauer has had a rough second half, coughing up a 5.24 ERA and surrendering a .268/.340/.436 line but he has the highest upside of these four arms and could be the real key here. Tomlin is hit and miss but he’s been mostly miss since July 1, posting a 5.53 xERA and allowing a .289/.313/.506 line against. He was removed from the rotation, but with the injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, he’s back. We’ll hold our nose and hope for the best in the one game he pitches in.

After being banished to the pen in July, Clay Buchholz rejoined the rotation briefly in August and then for good in September. In a small sample of eight starts/48.1 innings, he’s produced a 3.17 ERA. You never know when Good Buchholz or Bad Buchholz will show up, but Good Buchholz is still capable of making a cameo. Rodriguez could be the real difference-maker for the Sox. Since fighting his way back from a demotion to Pawtucket, the lefty has a 3.24 ERA with over a strikeout per inning in 14 starts. The Indians aren’t a great matchup for him, however, what with their right-handed power bats, and he was beyond shaky in his final two starts. Buchholz and Rodriguez do not scare us one bit.

Relief Pitchers (Innings, ERA, xERA)

Red Sox

RHP - Craig Kimbrel: 53, 3.40, 3.01
RHP - Koji Uehara: 47, 3.45, 2.80
RHP - Brad Ziegler: 68, 2.25, 3.00
LHP - Drew Pomeranz: 170.7, 3.32, 3.03
LHP - Robbie Ross Jr.: 55.3, 3.25, 3.79
RHP - Matt Barnes: 66.7, 4.05, 4.05
RHP - Joe Kelly: 40, 5.17, 3.69.

Indians

RHP - Cody Allen: 69.3, 2.99, 2.76
LHP - Andrew Miller: 61.7, 2.04, 1.84
RHP - Bryan Shaw: 66.7, 3.24, 3.71
RHP - Dan Otero: 70.7, 1.53, 3.06
RHP - Jeff Manship: 43.3, 3.12, 4.69
RHP - Zack McAllister: 52.3, 3.44, 4.91
RHP - Cody Anderson: 60.7, 6.68, 4.72
RHP - Mike Clevinger: 53, 5.26, 4.79

Here is where Cleveland probably holds the biggest edge in this series. How do you stop the best offense in baseball? With baseball’s best reliever. Andrew Miller has been as filthy as ever since joining the Tribe, striking out 46 batters in 29 innings with a 1.55 ERA. He is uniquely well suited to the task of preventing David Ortiz from David Ortizing late in the game. Allen is an outstanding closer, and Shaw and Otero provide the Indians with a level of bullpen depth the Red Sox lack. The last four guys in the group aren’t terribly inspiring, but the first four are.

The Red Sox’s bullpen is capable of shutting teams down, but they’re also capable of blowing leads very, very quickly. Craig Kimbrel went on a dominant run after his return from knee surgery, but he’s been shaky of late, surrendering six earned runs in his last four appearances. His command has come and gone all season. Ziegler was a savvy mid-season pickup by Dave Dombrowski. While he’s not an elite bullpen arm, he’s a solid seventh- or eighth-inning guy who can induce ground balls in big spots.

The real wildcards for the Red Sox are Uehara and Pomeranz. Koji hasn’t allowed a run since coming off the DL in early September, giving the Red Sox the primary setup option they lacked for so much of the year. Pomeranz started all year but has experience coming out of the bullpen and could be the big LHP weapon the Sox need to neutralize bats like Kipnis. Cleveland has the clear advantage here, but the Sox at least have the potential to hold leads, too.

Defense

On paper, these teams are pretty even defensively. The Indians have the slight edge in the infield; it’s pretty close at second and third but the Tribe holds an advantage at first base and shortstop. The Red Sox would appear to have a slight edge behind the plate (thanks in large part to Vazquez) and especially in the outfield. When Betts, Bradley and Benintendi are in the field at the same time, Boston has the most gifted defensive outfield this side of Pittsburgh.

Managers

Both John Farrell and Terry Francona are known more as good clubhouse presences and players’ managers than genius tacticians. Francona is willing and eager to use platoons to his advantage, and while he can be slow to call upon the bullpen, you can be fairly confident with him calling the shots. His use of Andrew Miller should be commended. Farrell is ... better than Bobby Valentine! His bullpen decisions can be suboptimal, especially when it comes to pulling his starters but he’s not afraid to go to high-leverage guys early and he’s not afraid to pinch-hit for bad bats, either. Francona is clearly better in our view.

This series should be a good one. The Red Sox have the higher ceiling on paper, what with the best offense in baseball, their one-two punch atop the rotation and a bullpen that rounded into form late in the season. But the Indians are incredibly well-rounded, steal more bases, have a better defensive infield and can shut anyone down in the late innings. Thanks to their young players and power hitters, both teams are, to use a technical term, fun as hell to watch. The market would have you believe that Boston has a big edge here but that is simply not true. Cleveland has home field advantage, where they went 53-28 this season and also defeated Boston seven times in nine games at Progressive Field.

SPORTS WAGERS

NHL Season Point total

St. Louis Under 101½ +110

There are two ways to play this. One can choose to play it under 101½ points for the season at BET365 with a takeback of +110 or play total wins for the year. We like the +110 at 365 as opposed to laying juice at the other joints so that's how we'll play it. We would have no problem recommending going under 46½ wins either.

The Blue Notes finished with 107 points last year when many things went right but a dramatic turn for the worse here is almost inevitable and we’ll start with Ken Hitchcock. Hitchcock has already announced that this is his last year before retiring. That in itself is odd because most teams have long term plans and often take on the personality of their coach. The coach helps to define who you are but now St. Louis will play until Hitchcock gets fired or walks away without knowing who they are or what they’ll become. The mindset on the bench has to come into question too, as every player knows that Hitchcock will not be around next year so why work your ass up for someone that is leaving? Aside from that, Hitchcock is a career loser who wears his welcome out quickly. The Blues were on the verge of firing him anyway but a successful first round in last year’s playoffs saved him from that fate. Nothing will save him this time around.

Next we have the goaltending situation, which also has Hitchcock’s stamp on it. For whatever reason, Hitch loves Jake Allen ands never liked Brian Elliott. In last year’s playoffs, Hitchcock could not wait to replace Brian Elliott with Allen and the first time that Elliott stumbled (despite being absolutely outstanding in every other playoff game), Hitchcock made the switch but was forced to switch right back after Allen was shaky. Jake Allen has been handed the #1 job many times previously but failed to hang onto it. He’s been handed it again but this time there will be no Brian Elliott to bail the Blues out. Allen’s backup is Carter Hutton, a career stiff that backed up Pekka Rinne in Nashville the past three years while posting one of the worst save percentages in the game. If Plan A does not work, the Blue Notes are in big trouble. If Plan A does work, the Blue Notes are still in trouble.

Up front, Alexander Steen and Paul Stastny are getting old and David Backes signed with Boston. The Blue Notes have some nice pieces with Vladimir Tarasenko, Robby Fabbri, Jori Lehtera and Jaden Schwartz but Fabbri was a rookie last year and a sophomore slump is possible. Even without one, this group of forwards is not going to light the world on fire. They are good but every team that finished below St. Louis last year improved while the Blue Notes did not. Looking up and down the Blues roster, we see plenty of dead weight and not much leadership at all. The best teams in the NHL finish with 100+ points and there are only a handful of them. ISt. Louis is not one of the best. In the West, one must expect improvement from Arizona, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary and Minnesota. That means regression MUST come from somewhere. It is of our opinion that the Blue Notes are a fringe playoff team at best, which means somewhere in the neighbourhood of 85 to 90 points and well below this point total.

Carolina Over 78½ -110

There are two ways to play this one, as each sportsbook offers something different. One could either bet total wins or total points for the season but we prefer total points because OT losses count for points, which helps us to reach our goal. Thus, the following write-up applies to both wagers. We did some shopping around and the best number we found is at bookmaker.eu which is at 78½ points -110, which is where we are going to play it.

We’ll start off with last year’s results in which the Hurricanes finished with 35 victories and 86 points and missed the playoffs by seven points. This year’s posted numbers say the Hurricanes are going to regress and we could not disagree more. The reason they missed the playoffs was because they lost a league high 16 games in OT. One could blame their goaltending and that would be accurate, as both Cam Ward and Eddie Lack finished with identical save percentages of .901. That has to improve and we trust it will because Lack has settled into his new surroundings and will be counted on more frequently. Ward signed a two-year deal in the off-season for much less money so he’s likely the backup with little to no pressure on him. Lack was tremendous in his years with the Canucks and he’s not past his prime. Give him the starting job and his confidence back and it could make a world of difference. The management group in Carolina is too sharp to allow goaltending to be the same issue as it was last year so we have to believe that they believe Lack is very capable of having a great year. Coach Bill Peters is in his third year in Carolina. The ‘Canes have missed the playoffs for seven straight years so the rebuild and all the work that has gone into it has to start paying off and we absolutely trust that this is the year it starts coming together. No question that Carolina is a better team this year than last.

Additions: Lee Stempniak, Teuvo Teravainen, Bryan Bickell, Viktor Stalberg,

Departures: James Wisniewski, Riley Nash, Nathan Gerbe, Brad Malone.

We don’t see the departures being better than the arrivals, especially when you consider the ‘Canes added three Blackhawks that know a thing or two about winning hockey games. Lee Stempniak is another veteran presence that has played everywhere including some pretty decent teams in Pittsburgh, St. Louis and New York. Dude can produce too.

Carolina was a top-7 puck possession team last year and we cannot overstate enough the importance of that metric. In other words, the ‘Canes have the puck almost always more than the team that they are playing. The teams that ranked above them last year in puck possession numbers were Pittsburgh, Dallas, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim and Tampa Bay. That’s not bad company.

Led by 24-year-old Justin Faulk, the defensive group has three other d-men coming into their sophomore seasons in Jacob Slavin, Noah Hanifin and Brett Pesce. They’re building one hell of a core in Carolina that is on the verge of being scary good and might already be there. Incidentally, Faulk is a big-minute, franchise defenseman and the appreciation for his game league wide is about to explode. The Hurricanes will sport a young, revamped forward core this season. That, coupled with one of the league's best two-way blue-lines, makes this is a team that could be very dangerous when it comes to putting pucks in the net, which was another weakness last season.

Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis went out this offseason and added size, skill and speed. The ‘Canes are going to roll out three scoring lines this year with Jordan Staal (huge second half last year) and Victor Rask centering two of the lines. One of a number of others will center the third line. The addition of Teuvo Teravainen and Lee Stempniak and the expected emergence of Sebastian Aho give the ‘Canes so many more scoring options than they had a year ago. The so-called experts will try and get you to believe that the ‘Canes will be offensively handicapped but don’t buy it. Between Staal, Rask, Elias Lindholm, Aho, Faulk, Jeff Skinner, Andrej Nestrasil, Teravainen, Stempniak, and perhaps the best group of puck moving defensemen in the league, there is plenty of offense to go around.

The Hurricanes had a PDO of 98.2 last year, which ranked 29th in the NHL.PDO is the sum of a team's 5v5 shooting percentage (the number of goals they score divided by the number of shots on goal they generate) and their 5v5 save percentage (the number of shots their goalies stop divided by the number of shots on goal they allow). PDO is a luck driven stat that reveals that Carolina was unlucky in converting their significant territorial advantage into results. A low shooting percentage combined with a low save percentage and Carolina still had 86 points last season. There is no regression here. The ‘Canes are being hugely underestimated, as they are a playoff team that is almost certain to surpass last year’s point total of 86. We understand that many of you do not have accounts at all these places but we're always shopping for the best number and since this is a 4 unit play. we are betting it at the best place. We still recommend betting over 80½ or over 34½ wins but for our record, we are going over 78½ at Bookmaker and franky, we can't get ourt bet in quick enough. This is a bad number that is influenced by the media predicting Carolina to miss the playoffs again. That is such hogwash. Bet this one with confidence.

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay at Carolina
Play: Carolina -5

Tampa Bay (1-7 ATS run) was held to seven points for the second time in three games in last week's 27-7 home loss to Denver as quarterback Jameis Winston continues to struggle in his second season. Winston has thrown as many interceptions (eight) as touchdown passes -- seven coming in the past three weeks and has absorbed a league-high 39 hits. The Panthers are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games. Carolina QB Derek Anderson is a capable backup. Anderson made two starts in place of Newton in 2014 and beat the Buccaneers twice, throwing for three TDs and zero interceptions. And the Panthers are 24-11-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Play Carolina.

Wunderdog

Washington @ Los Angeles
Pick: Washington +129

Washington has plenty of offensive punch. They are eighth in baseball in runs scored, #10 in on-base percentage, and #11 in slugging. The Nationals go with veteran lefty Gio Gonzalez, who won six of his nine decisions after the All-Star break and beat the Dodgers on July 20, an 8-1 rout. Gonzalez has had solid success against Adrian Gonzalez (2-for-17), Yasiel Puig (1-for-11), and Justin Turner (2-for-19). The Nationals are 9-4 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and face Kenta Maeda, who has cooled off since the break. He owns a 4.25 ERA since the All-Star break after posting a 2.95 ERA before that. Los Angeles has slipped offensively from a year ago. They are #16 in baseball in runs scored and #18 in on-base percentage and slugging, so grab the talented dog.

Vegas Butcher

OVER 6 CHC/SFG

Arrieta’s e-ERA is 3.7 on the year and 4.2 over the 2nd half of the season. Even with San Fran struggling offensively, I like their chances of scrapping a few runs off him. On the other side, Bumgarner is facing the #1 ranked offense against lefties. Off a 119-pitch outing and facing a tough lineup, I doubt he pitches another shutout. I believe each team scores 3 runs in this one. My model has this at 7.4 total runs so there’s a lot of value in the current number.

UNDER 7.5 WAS/LAD

The Dodgers are the worst offensive team against lefties in the league. The Nationals rank only 17th offensively against righties, slightly below average. Both Gonzalez and Maeda come into this one ranking in the top-35 over the 2nd half of the year. My model has this one at 6.4 total runs, and with the total over 7, there’s a lot of value in this UNDER.

River City Sharps

Panthers -5.5

The Carolina Panthers find themselves in an early season must win on Monday Night Football as they welcome the Tampa Bay Bucs to Charlotte tonight. Both teams come into the game at 1-3 on the season and both have significant injuries. For the home Panthers, their biggest injury and the reigning league MVP, Cam Newton, won’t play tonight and for the Bucs, both RB’s Doug Martin and Charles Simms will also be out of action tonight. In addition to questions on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, these defenses are also really bad with Tampa ranked 31st in the NFL in points allowed and Carolina not much better at 28th. The Bucs will be charged tonight to stop a Carolina offense led by NFL journeyman QB Derek Anderson. The favorite is a remarkable 13-4 ATS in the last 17 times these teams have met and Tampa is 1-7 against the number in their last eight games. While both of these teams have their issues, we like Ron Rivera’s chance of dialing something up vs. Winston to create some pressure and turnovers and we think the Panthers win this one tonight by at least a touchdown.

Eric Schroeder

My free play is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs, and of course in this game I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers: Madison Bumgarner over Jake Arrieta.

Look, this is a free pick - it is what it is. And while it sounds cliche to take the Giants with MadBum on the hill, it's hard to argue against the guy.

I'm sure Arrieta and Cubs manager Joe Maddon know all about what Bumgarner has done in the postseason in recent years. But it's not just about San Francisco's big left-hander, as the team has gone 9-0 in elimination games under manager Bruce Bochy, rallying from improbable deficits to win the World Series all three times this decade.

That even-year series theory is added incentive to win, but it's really just about timing. Every other year the Giants have been good, with turnaround.

The consistency comes with MadBum's presence and the team's confidence when he is towing the slab.

The 2014 World Series MVP has thrown 23 straight scoreless innings in the postseason, and is 2-0 with a save in elimination games. Bumgarner was spectacular in spinning a four-hitter last Wednesday in New York, where the Giants eliminated the reigning National League champion Mets in the wild-card game.

He is 2-0 against the Cubs this season, winning at home on May 22, when he scattered three hits and allowed no runs over 7.2 innings. Then on Sept. 3, in Chicago, he allowed two earned on five hits over six innings to come away with the win.

He'll dominate, and outduel Arrieta.

4* GIANTS