Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, October 16th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

COLTS AT TITANS
PLAY: COLTS +8

My projected line on tonight’s game is Tennessee -7.5, so this is no play material for me.

However, if you’re into trends, there’s probably only one way to play. Consider that the Colts have completely owned this series from a spread standpoint, covering 10 of the last 11 meetings with the Titans.

Indy is also a stellar 27-9 ATS when facing teams with losing records, while Tennessee has been a monster money burner at home, just 8-22-2 vs. the line in the last 32 home games.

Beyond that, while I don’t have much regard for the Colts, this Titans team is starting to look like a pretty big bust for those who held them in high regard prior to the season. I think at the very least, it’s fair to offer than the Titans have been a disappointment to date.

No play for me, I’ll simply be observing tonight. But based on the trends listed and the fact that the Titans have shown little in the way of cohesiveness, I’d have to lean with the Colts getting more than a TD here.

Tommy Brunson

Monday's comp play will be to play the Colts-Titans to land Over the total.

I know Indy is still without Andrew Luck, but Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable under center, and the Colts have played Over the total in each of Brissett's last 3 starts.

Indy is now 4-1 Over the total for the season, while Tennessee comes in with Overs played in 3 of their last 4 contests.

Marcus Mariota is bothered by a hamstring injury, but it looks like he is going to be able to answer the bell, so let's side with the Over to be the way to go in Nashville tonight.

Series numbers show 6 of the last 9 division showdowns landing Over the total, look for this one to land Over as well.

1* INDIANAPOLIS-TENNESSEE OVER

Joey Juice

Well this game will be ugly from a quarterback standpoint. Andrew Luck is out, Marcus Mariota is dealing with hamstring issues and is questionable at best.

This may very well wind up being Brissett vs Cassel, naturally not a potential viewership explosion in a league where viewership is already down.

Well, normally you think with both quarterbacks potentially out it's a stone cold under potential, but not in this game. A look inside the numbers tells us all we need to know about betting this total. For the Colts, the over is 6-1 in the last seven in October, 6-1 in their last seven in week 6, 4-1 in their last five overall, and 4-1 in their last five on Monday Night.

For Tennessee, the over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 against teams with a losing record, 9-2 in their last 11 against AFC South, and 10-4-1 in their last 15 after a straight up loss.

So even with lousy, lackluster offenses, the fact that both defenses are complete Swiss cheese will make this game an easy over.

3* INDIANAPOLIS-TENNESSEE OVER

Scott Rickenbach

Colts vs. Titans
Play: Colts +8

The Colts have won 11 straight meetings with the Titans. Also, under head coach Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis is 8-1-1 ATS in their 10 games against division rival Tennessee. Believe it or not, this is a huge game even though it involves a pair of 2-3 teams. The winner will be tied for 1st place in the AFC South with Jacksonville and Houston while the loser falls a game behind everyone else in the division. While the Titans may indeed finally snap their 11-game losing skid to the Colts, I don't see it coming by more than a TD. There is solid line value here with Indy catching 8 points here (and in some spots as high as 8.5) as of early game-day morning. The Colts have the momentum edge with wins in 2 of their last 3 games and they also have the series history edge. Those two things lead to a lot of confidence and Jacoby Brissett is coming off of a huge game for Indianapolis - still without Andrew Luck. Even though Marcus Mariota is expected back for the Titans tonight, will he truly be 100%? Also, Tennessee has lost two straight games and confidence is waning. The Colts are 8-4 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They're also on an 8-2 ATS run in games played between weeks 5 and 9. The Titans are on a 2-13 ATS run against teams with a losing record!

Jim Feist

Astros at Yankees
Pick: Under 8.5

This series has been a low scoring series owned by the pitching. Charlie Morton makes his second start of the postseason for the Astros. Morton had a no decision in his start at Boston, going seven innings and allowing two runs. He's oppose CC Sabathia, who had two starts vs the Indians. Sabathia went 4.1 and 5.1 innings, allowing a total of four runs over 9.2 innings. Yankees haven't scored but two runs against the Astros. Aaron Judge, the Yankees slugger has had trouble hitting the ball, going just 2-for-20 with 12 strikeouts. Don't see much changing here on Monday as both teams will struggle to score runs.

Chip Chirimbes

Colts vs. Titans
Play: Titans -7

A pair of 2-3 clubs that are having difficulties fielding a healthy quarterback. The Colts have been without Andrew Luck the entire season and are going with Jacoby Brissett who threw for a career high 317 yards last week in Indianapolis' overtime win against San Francisco. Tennessee has been without Marcus Mariota and their entire team on both sides of the ball has suffered defeats to Houston 57-14 and Miami 16-10 last week. Now, with the Colts having won 11 straight meetings and being 10-1 ATS in those games including 4-1 ATS in Nashville. Now, here is a team possibly without their quarterback and has lost 11 straight to their opponent and yet they are such a strong favorite. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and I like them here.

Harry Bondi

Colts / Titans Under 47

Coming off two easy free winners on Saturday and Sunday, we turn to Monday Night Football. All of the team and series trends lean toward the over here tonight, but we’re not buying. This total is way too high for two teams that are having serious injury problems at the QB position. Marcus Mariota is expected to get the start for Tennessee, but since he is just coming back from a hamstring injury, the normally mobile QB will be kept under wraps as the Titans rely on their bread-and-butter running game. And while the Colts have gone over in three out of four games with Jacoby Brissett under center, the average total in those games was 42. Tonight’s number of 47 will be too high a mountain for these two limited offenses to climb.

Bob Balfe

Astros / Yankees Over 8.5

We had great pitching in the first two games of this series. The Yankees pitched well enough not to be in a 0-2 hole, but that is exactly where they are at. Tonight the Yankees return home to where they hit the ball much better. The Astros themselves are great against left handed pitching so I am interested to see how they do against Sabathia this evening. I think both starters will give up at least 4 runs each. Look for a high scoring game.

Eric Schroeder

My free play for tonight is on the Over in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, as I see the Houston Astros and New York Yankees easily soar.

And there are plenty of reasons why, but topping the list...

The Astros led the regular season in runs scored on the road, with 501. The next closest: 418, from the Miami Marlins. The Yankees ranked third in runs scored at home, with 451.

Spanning their last 40 games, the Astros are on 14-8 winning run on the road, while the Yankees are on a 16-7 run at home. So both will be swinging bats after a pair of 2-1 games in Houston in Games 1 and 2.

The Yankees rank No. 1 in the playoffs with 11 home runs, and are third in runs at home during the postseason, behind the Dodgers and Astros, respectively.

4* Astros/Yankees Over

Brandon Lee

Yankees -129

The Astros held serve at home to take a 2-0 series lead in the ALCS over the Yankees, but I look for New York to respond as they head home for Game 3 and have veteran C.C. Sabathia on the mound. Sabathia has been one of the Yankees most consistent starters down the stretch. He started twice against the Indians in the ALDS and gave up just 4 runs (2 each start) on 8 hits with 14 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings of work. While he's not gone deep in games, that's just fine with the outstanding bullpen of New York. The Yankees offense should get going here against Houston's Charlie Morton, who has a 4.17 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 10 road starts. One of those was at NY against these Yankees, where he gave up 4 runs in just 5 2/3 innings.

Rocketman

Lightning vs. Red Wings
Play: Lightning -119

The Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Detroit to take on the Red Wings on Monday night. Both teams come in with identical 4-1 SU overall records on the season. Detroit is 98-109 last 207 games after playing 3 consecutive road games. Tampa Bay is scoring 4 goals per game overall this year, 4 goals per game on the road this season and 4.5 goals per game against division opponents this year. Detroit is scoring only 2 goals per game against division opponents. Tampa Bay is 11-3 SU overall vs Detroit the past 3 years. Tampa Bay has won 7 of their past 8 games overall. Tampa Bay is 9-3 last 12 games after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Detroit is 10-27 last 37 games against the Atlantic. Detroit is 7-19 last 26 games when playing with 2 days rest. Tampa Bay is 22-8 last 30 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!

SPORTS WAGERS

TENNESSEE -7 over Indianapolis

The AFC South is considered the worst division in football and after sending nine-win teams to the playoffs the last two seasons, it is a hard point to argue against. Even when the Colts were winning 10 and 11 games their record was padded with wins that came on the backs of their weak division opponents. With Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning before him, the Colts have had the best quarterback in the division for over a decade and it hasn’t been close but with the former still sidelined with a surgically repaired shoulder, this franchise has been exposed as a one-trick pony. While Indy is 2-3 through five weeks, the goods under the hood show that they are probably fortunate to have the two wins they do have, as they rank near the bottom of the league in total DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense-adjusted value over average) at -48.8% just 0.03% above the winless Browns. The weak offensive line, which has been an issue for years and is a big reason why the franchise QB is on the bench, has been awful again this season, as Colts QBs have been sacked 18 times with an adjusted sack rate of 9.8% which give sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance and opponent. The bottom line is that the Colts shouldn’t be winning football games.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota will return under center having missed one game with a hamstring injury and while the media and market are obsessing over how injured he is coming into this game, we couldn’t care less. Whether or not Mariota will finish the game has been factored into this line and oddsmakers still had no problem making the Titans an 8-point favorite. Also important factor to consider is that Pinnacle, the sharpest book in town, opened at -8 while many other outfits posted -7. Mariota should be a welcome addition, as he ranks seventh in total Quarterback DVOA at 19.8% almost 5% higher than Carson Wentz who is 8th. For years the Colts have had the upper hand at quarterback in this series but with Luck out, the tables have turned.

Next up is those utterly useless trends that people use to make selections. It is well documented that Indy has dominated this series by beating them every time since 2011 when Matt Hasselbeck was still Tennessee’s quarterback. The Titans have got to be sick of losing to the Colts and tonight is their opportunity to take one back in prime time in front of the football world. Yesterday, favorite bettors were crushed by large favorites with a pair of 13-point dogs winning outright (Dolphins, Giants) and double-digit favs like New England and Washington failing to cover. Hell, a bunch of smaller pooches like the Bears, Rams and Chargers had little trouble covering so we can understand the reluctance of laying large lumber. However, the Colts are getting far too much credit for competing against the Seahawks (that game was tied 18-18 late in the third) and having two wins already but the two victories were against the Brownies and 49ers, both by a FG. Thus, the Colts could easily be 0-5. Indy’s three losses have been by an average of 21 points. This is a mismatch any way you slice it and the price is too low. The Titans have pointed towards this game as the game that would really define the progress of this regime and change the guard in the division. The improvement is evident and now the Titans are ready to snap a 10-game series losing streak against a Colts’ quad that's struggling in all three phases and that can’t match up.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +124 over N.Y. YANKEES

We haven’t played a lot of MLB playoffs because we haven’t seen enough value and it’s actually worked out well. When the favorite wins by one run, we know we save some bets but now the venue switches from Minute Maid Park to Yankee Stadium. Game 1 and Game 2 were both tight 2-1 games. Each game broke Houston’s way so the end result of two close contests is a big 2-0 series lead for the Astros. The Yankees send CC Sabathia to the mound on regular rest coming off a solid if short outing in Game 5 of the ALDS against Cleveland. The Astros are starting Charlie Morton who will be working on six days’ rest after a similarly solid if short outing of his own in Game 4 of the ALDS against Boston.

This is obviously a crucial game for the Yankees and we’re somewhat surprised that Joe Girardi’s rotation has gone Sabathia (Game 5 v Cleve), Tanaka (Game 1 in ALDS) Severino (Game 2 in ALDS) and back to Sabathia. No Sonny Gray or no Jordan Montgomery in between, which is likely going to cost Girardi. Starting C.C. over Sonny Gray is something we can’t wrap our heads around but Girardi can because he’s a loyal warrior. C.C. came through in Game 5 v Cleveland and he’s come through many times in the past. Girardi and Sabathia have a long history together. Wearing the Pinstripes is an honor they both embrace and if they go down, they’re going down together. We like Girardi in terms of his demeanor, passion, military look and everything else but his decision here to go with C.C. over Gray is an emotional one and not a rational one. Starting Gray tomorrow is a day too late. If we’re wrong, so be it.

Sabathia has actually been very good this year with a 14-5 record to go along with a 3.69 ERA. He also has 120 K’s in 149 innings and in his two playoff appearances, he struck out 10 Indians in 12 frames while posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Give C.C credit for learning to hone his craft while his skills were regressing badly. We could go over his past three seasons prior to this year and find concerns about his size and his workload. One could follow trend in just about any skill area too for three consecutive years prior to this one (xERA, control, command, first-pitch strikes and WHIP) and find reason to worry. Thus, what C.C. has been able to do this year has to be admired but that doesn’t mean we should trust him as the chalk. It's no secret that the once-indestructible CC Sabathia isn't what he was. With diminished velocity, Sabathia hasn't been able to rack up elite strikeout totals. He's missed a few more bats in 2017, but we're skeptical that can hold against the Astronauts. With two straight seasons of 4.85+ xERA, a fastball sputtering near 89 mph and a brutal home park, there's little—if any—upside on Sabathia spotting a tag. He’s a big risk in a small park.

This market is not buying Charlie Morton’s success, which is understandable considering that Morton is a 33-year-old flashing never-before-seen velocity or strikeouts. In 147 frames, Morton has 163 K’s. A couple ticks on the fastball and a knockout curve (22% swing and miss) have worked wonders for Morton's strikeouts. The strikeout gains haven't come at the expense of control either. As a result, his command has skyrocketed. Morton's two-seamer continues to be a worm killer (60% grounders). Morton's long been an extreme ground-baller with decent control but his newfound ability to miss bats quickly makes for an attractive target. Morton's skills are worth your attention. The Astronauts may indeed go on to lose here but the more likely scenario is that they get to C.C. early and make Girardi pay for another post-season bad decision. Either way, all the value is on the dog.

Pass NHL

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay at Detroit
Play: Tampa Bay

Both teams have opened up at 4-1 to start the season. Tampa has won 4 of 5 on the road with a road game the following night and 7 of the last 9 on the road. Detroit has surprised folks with a quick start but have lost 7 straight to Tampa.