Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, October 17th, 2016

Allen Eastman

New York Jets +7.5 over Arizona

The Jets are 1-4. They are desperate. This is not a bad team. They have just had a really difficult schedule. They have close losses against teams like the Bengals and games against Seattle and Pittsburgh were close in the second half. This is a proud veteran team and I think that they will be ready to play in prime time. Carson Palmer should be back for the Cardinals. But I don't know if that is a good thing. He was terrible in his first three-and-a-half games this year and Arizona went just 1-3 ATS with him under center. Todd Bowles used to be the defensive coordinator out in Arizona, so he will know how to go after Palmer. I like the Jets to keep this one close and maybe even win this game outright.

Randall the Handle

Jets (1-4) at Cardinals (2-3)

The Jets continue to spiral in their difficult first half schedule and while Arizona has not performed to expectations, things won’t get easier here. This will be New York’s fourth road game in five weeks and it arrives here without the services of WR Eric Decker. Not having Decker allows the Cardinals to pay special attention to Brandon Marshall and making erratic QB Ryan Fitzpatrick look for others. That has a way of not working out too well, especially on the road where Fitz has thrown just two touchdowns and six interceptions in three losses. Arizona is expected to have QB Carson Palmer back after missing last week and even though the veteran pivot has not been at his best, facing the Jets 31st ranked pass defence should help take out this downtrodden foe. TAKING: CARDINALS -7½

Jim Feist

Sharks at Rangers
Pick: Sharks

San Jose off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season. The Sharks have only allowed two goals thus far behind netminder Martin Jones. Meanwhile, the Rangers have split their first two games. The Rangers have scored seven goals in two games, but have allowed six goals. Henrik Lundqvist has faced just 40 shots and allowed six to get through. It's early in the season, but the Sharks looked to be in form already. We get them here as a small dog. I'm taking the Sharks to stay perfect on the season.

Rob Vinciletti

Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -183

The Indians held serve and took the first 2 games at home, despite getting installed as underdogs in this series. Cleveland took a pair of close games with a total of 5 runs scored for both teams. The Indians have now won 8 straight games and put the odds in their favor. Game 3 road teams are just 3-12 historical, as seen by the grid below. However, they have won 12 of 15 times good for 80%. Toronto will look to take one back here tonight. When trailing a best of seven playoff series 2-0 the Toronto Blue Jays have a series record of 0-2 but a Game 3 record of 2-0. The Jays send M. Stroman to the mound and he has been solid in a pair of starts vs the Indians going 14 innings allowing just 2 runs. He has been hot of late with a 2.70 Era in his last 3 starts. Cleveland counters with T. Bauer who was pushed back for this game with a blister on his hand. Bauer has a paltry 4.91 era in his last 3 starts and was knocked out of the box in his lone start here in Toronto allowing 5 runs in less than 2 innings of work. Toronto averages 5 runs per game here at home and will be aided by a raucous crowd. Toronto is 4-0 as a home favorite this year off a road game loss where they scored 2 or less runs. Look for Toronto to take Game 3.

Sean Murphy

Avalanche vs. Penguins
Play: Under 5½

We won with the ‘over’ in the Avs home opener on Saturday night a game they won by a 6-5 score over the Stars, but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ on Monday as they head to Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins.

Colorado knows that it’s not going to win consistently in this league playing the style it employed on Saturday. The Avs can ill afford to play such a loose game against a well-structured defending champion Pens squad on Monday.

Colorado is expected to turn to Calvin Pickard between the pipes after Semyon Varlamov struggled on Saturday. Pickard allowed just two goals on 50 shots in two preseason appearances and gave up two goals or less in three of four road starts last season. Expect to see the Avs play a more responsible defensive game in front of Pickard here.

Pittsburgh has been involved in back-to-back 3-2 affairs, winning both, with Marc-Andre Fleury performing exceptionally well in place of an injured Matt Murray. The Pens could suffer a bit of a letdown in this non-conference matchup, and I belive that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game on Monday.

Bob Harvey

Senators vs. Red Wings
Play: Under 5½

The Ottawa Senators look for their third straight victory to open the season when they visit Hockeytown USA to take on the winless Detroit Red Wings. Game time is slated for 7:30 PM ET at Joe Louis Arena where the Wings are -133 ML favorites. The total is 5.5.

The Red Wings (22-13-6 home) allowed a total of 10 goals while losing at Atlantic Division rivals Tampa Bay and Florida to open the season. While defense is a concern, the Red Wings managed only 22 shots last time out, and top offensive threats Dylan Larkin, Tomas Tatar and Henrik Zetterberg have combined for just two points and a minus-12 rating.

Meanwhile the Senators, behind the play of Erik Karlsson (one goal, three assists) have taken their first two of the new season. They opened with a 5-4 OT victory over Toronto and followed that up with a 4-3 SO win over Montreal. It’s so far, so good for first-year Ottawa coach Guy Boucher.

The UNDER is 2-0-3 in Detroit’s last five home games and 2-0-2 when its playing on one-day’s rest.

Detroit earned seven of 10 possible points against Ottawa last season (3-1-1), splitting a pair of games at home.

The teams are a combined 0-4 on the puckline.

Larry Ness

Sharks at Rangers
Pick: Rangers

The San Jose Sharks have opened 2-0-0, winning 2-1 at home vs the LA Kings and then won 3-2 at Columbus. They travel to Madison Square Garden Monday night to take on the Rangers, who have started 1-1-0, beating the Islanders 5-3 at home to open the season but then lost 3-2 at St Louis. The Rangers will likely take the ice with a banged-up defense. Kevin Klein, the Rangers' top right-handed defenseman, missed the team's first two games with a back strain and then on Saturday night, fellow right-handed defenseman Dan Girardi left the game with a hip flexor strain and may miss extended time. If Klein misses his third straight game, the Rangers defense would be down to two regulars from a season ago, Ryan McDonagh and Marc Staal.

The Sharks owned the NHL’s best road record last year (28-10-3) and return most of the roster that reached the 2016 Stanley Cup Final. They added the speedy left winger Mikkel Boedker in free agency and he was helpful in the Sharks’ 3-2 road win against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday, scoring the game’s first goal. Center Logan Couture and defenseman Brent Burns are off to fast starts for the Sharks, as both have recorded three points (goal, two assists each) over the first two contests.

The Sharks have outshot their first two opponents by a combined 69-50 while the Rangers have a 74-46 edge in shots. That includes New York holding the Blues to ZERO shots in the third period, although the Rangers would lose despite outshooting the Blues 15-0 in that third period. Yes, the Rangers were unable to get the equalizer past Blues goalie Carter Hutton but one has to like the effort. Remember, the Rangers opened the season with a five-goal effort at home last Thursday and I’ll ‘bite’ on the home team, here.

David Banks

New York @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona -7.5

The Arizona Cardinals got a much needed win last Thursday when they beat the 49ers, 33-21, in San Francisco. Head coach Bruce Arians had to start backup quarterback Drew Stanton as Carson Palmer had not yet cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol. Stanton played well enough to win throwing two touchdown passes while not throwing an interception. Running back David Johnson carried much of the load for Arizona gaining 157 yards on 27 carries and adding two scores of his own.

Palmer should be ready to go on Monday night as the Cardinals welcome the struggling New York Jets to town. The Jets lost for the third straight week as they could not stop the Pittsburgh Steelers offense in a 31-13 defeat. The concern for Palmer is that he may not have two of his starting offensive linemen on Monday night.

Guard Evan Mathis is definitely out after being placed on injured reserve. He suffered an ankle injury in the game against the 49ers and will require surgery. The other guard, All-Pro Mike Iupati, also left the San Francisco game with an ankle injury. He is listed as questionable. Earl Watford will start in place of Mathis and if Iupati can’t go, John Wetzel will step into the starting slot.

The Cardinals would very much like to get Johnson and the ground game going against the Jets. This will help open up a Jets pass defense that gives up 319.8 yards per game. A year ago, head coach Todd Bowles and the Jets enjoyed the benefits of a stout defense. In 2016, the Jets are 23rd in the league in scoring defense giving up an average of 27.2 points per game.

The Jets offense isn’t much better. New York has managed just 33 points over the last three weeks. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is showing why Jets management hesitated in signing him last offseason. The veteran signal caller has twice as many interceptions (10) as he has touchdown passes (5).

The two teams have met just eight times in NFL history. Surprisingly, the Cardinals have not beaten the Jets since they were in St. Louis back in 1975. The last time the two teams played in Arizona the Jets won a 13-3 decision at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.

Brandon Lee

Cardinals -7

I'm going to roll the dice on the Cardinals to cover the touchdown spread at home against the Jets. It's been a disappointing start to the season for Arizona, but I think this is a spot where they not only can beat the Jets, but really lay one on them. The Cardinals will have Carson Palmer back at quarterback and he should have a field day against a bad Jets secondary that has been vulnerable to the deep pass, something Arizona does extremely well. As for New York, they are really in a tough spot here. This will be the Jets 4th road game in the last 5 weeks and the injuries are starting to mount up on both sides of the ball. Keep in mind the Cardinals have had extra time to prepare here, having played on Thursday in Week 5.

Wunderdog

Colorado @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Under 5.5

Colorado has a new coach and a new style. The offense scored plenty on a weak Dallas defense, but that was at home. Now they head to play the defending champions on the road, who play great defense. Colorado will play four games in six days during a tough Eastern Conference swing. Pittsburgh was sixth in the NHL in goals allowed last year and is on a 6-1-2 run UNDER the total going back to last year's playoffs. The defense has allowed two goals in each of the first two games, both 3-2 finals. Captain Sidney Crosby remains out indefinitely with a concussion, and this shapes up as a game with more defense than offense.

Brad Wilton

Monday's comp play will be to back the underdog Indians as they look to take the commanding 3-0 series lead in the ALCS at the Rogers Centre tonight.

At this price, you simply cannot pass up a play on the scorching Tribe, as they picked right up where they left off in the division series, as Terry Francona's team swept Boston 3-0, and enter tonight's game up 2-0.

For those of you counting, that 5 games played, and 5 wins in the books.

It will be Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman to the mound. Bauer was pushed back a game after injuring his finger while fiddling with his drone!

Bauer says he is good to go, and a few extra days never hurt anyone at this time of the season.

The Toronto bats just haven't been able to break through in this series, nor have the Cleveland bats - really, but the Indians are finding the timely hitting and as we all know at this time of the year, that is what matters most.

More timely hits for the Indians, and another postseason win.

Cleveland as the big dog worth the shot tonight for sure.

2* CLEVELAND

Scott Rickenbach

Senators vs. Red Wings
Play: Over 5½

This literally is the NHL Free Game Monday as you can watch it live for free at NHL.com tonight. Also, although this is my Free Pick for Monday, please know that this is an actual 8* release that all my NHL clients are receiving as an actual star rated release for tonight. The key to this pick is that the Red Wings are hungry to get a W in their home opener but they have already allowed 10 goals in their first two games this season. After Detroit lost their first game 6-4, the focus shifted to avoiding odd man rushes and making sure to get back quick on defense. The problem with that, however, was the Red Wings became tentative in the offensive zone and they ended up losing their second game 4-1. What that will mean for tonight is that Detroit is going to again get aggressive in the offensive zone and they certainly are happy to be home for the home opener of what will be their final season in the old Joe Louis Arena. While at first glance this may appear to be a good stop to back the hungry Red Wings at home, the issue with that is that goalie Petr Mrazek has not looked overly sharp early this season. Detroit is hosting an Ottawa team that is flying high right now as they have scored 9 goals already this season. However, like the Red Wings, the Senators have had some issues in their own zone with already allowing 7 goals in their first two games. The last 52 times that Detroit is off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more, the Red Wings have recorded just 17 unders. Considering the style Ottawa is playing and the fact that Detroit will be focused on a strong game in the offensive zone after scoring just one goal in their last game, look for this one to get to at least 6 goals.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland +160 over TORONTO

After the Indians took the first two games of the series in Cleveland, the Blue Jays turn to Opening Day starter Marcus Stroman to avoid falling behind 3-0. The Indians, meanwhile, will start Trevor Bauer as they look to continue their loss-free postseason. Bauer is slated to start after being pushed out a game on account of a pinky laceration endured during drone repair. Expect the Indians to roll out the same lineup as they did against righty Marco Estrada in Game 1, which means Santana setting the table, Coco Crisp in left field, and Tyler Naquin in center field.

Devon Travis is expected to require surgery on his injured right knee so Darwin Barney will likely start at second base in his place. In Game 2, Barney hit in the nine spot, while Carrera started in the leadoff spot, so the Blue Jays could very well run that lineup back in Game 3. That said, with Carrera having yet to reach base in the series, the Blue Jays could also move Bautista to the leadoff spot and either Troy Tulowitzki or Russell Martin to the cleanup spot, while moving Carrera to the bottom of the order.

While it seems odd to see the red hot Indians taking back a price like this, the market is not taking momentum into account or weighing recent events as heavily as we are. The market also does not have a very favorable projection for Bauer. When we consider that three of Cleveland’s five postseason wins this year have come by a single run (largely because of Andrew Miller and Terry Francona) and that another win came by two runs, ignoring recent events or momentum seems slightly more prudent.

Regarding the unfavorable Bauer projection, Bauer struggled in the second half after a stellar first half as he saw his HR/FB rate regress back to his career norms. Additionally, he faces a powerful Blue Jays lineup in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre but the Jays are swinging for the fences every pitch and getting themselves out. We wouldn’t sleep on Bauer either. While Bauer drifted between the rotation and bullpen this year, his results have generally been positive. Bauer has revamped his pitch arsenal too. Bauer is hardly using his slider anymore (21% in 2015; 0.3% in 2016) while his cutter (0%/16%) and curve (12%/18%) are more frequent contributors. His curveball now includes more vertical motion (by a couple of inches), which helps maintain the high swing and miss rate and strikeout rate. The new pitch mix also seems to cause batters to put the ball on the ground, as he’s got the highest groundball rate in his career. Bauer still needs work on his control, but his new pitch mix intrigues and if he’s throwing strikes tonight, he is going to be difficult. If he’s not throwing strikes, Francona will get him out in a hurry. Furthermore, the Blue Jays will likely have to face the nearly unhittable Andrew Miller for 4-6 outs should the game be close or if Cleveland has a lead.

The home team will likely carry the advantage for the other 21-22 outs of Game 3, which will likely see an uptick in offensive production when compared to the first two contests but that is something that remains to be seen. What we know for sure is that the Indians are on a roll and their speed may even play a bigger factor on this fast track in Toronto. They also have big momentum while the Jays have the weight of the world on them here. So, once again it comes down to value and in that regard, one has to give the Indians damn close to a 50% chance of winning. We stress value and we’re not going to sway here.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Jets +7 over ARIZONA

After a short road trip to the Bay Area, the Cardinals are back at home hosting former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. The Cardinals got back on track with a 33-21 win against San Francisco but a taunting call by a 49er at midfield with the Cardinals down seven changed the entire landscape of that game. Instead of having to punt, Arizona was awarded a first down (in game variance there) and subsequently scored a TD four plays later. Furthermore, beating the 49ers and allowing 21 points against should not be celebrated. Arizona’s other victory occurred against Tampa Bay. The Cardinals five games thuds far have been against New England (without Brady), TB, Buffalo, the Rams and San Francisco. The Cardinals have been a 9-point favorite or more twice this season and they’re 0-2 straight up in those games. Perhaps these Cardinals are just grossly overrated like the Packers or Seahawks. Here’s a team that has yet to face even an average quarterback and they have three losses and two unimpressive wins. Carson Palmer is likely back this week but so what. He looks broken down like Eli Manning.

The Jets’ offense has already gone stale and aside from the Bills win, there have been few positives. The passing offense that was devastating and consistent last year has regressed to the Jets of old. The rushing game that once looked upgraded with the addition of Matt Forte hasn't produced even average numbers for the last three weeks but we’re not putting any weight on offensive or defensive rankings that do not take into consideration the level of competition. So, while the Cardinals have played five very winnable games against weak QB’s, the Jets have played Cincinnati, Buffalo, K.C., Seattle and Pittsburgh. They defeated Buffalo (in prime time) and could have easily defeated Cincinnati or Seattle as well. Playing easier competition a year ago, Fitzpatrick had already passed for nine scores by this point. He had 12 games with multiple scores including seven of the final nine. The Cardinals defense has allowed some weak offenses to move the chains with regularity. Fitzpatrick should be able to also but more importantly is that the Jets’ tough schedule this year and 1-4 record has them receiving inflated points here and therefore we have to accept them and hope for the best.