Andrew Gold
Raptors vs. Spurs
Play: Over 206
This may seem like a high total for a Spurs game especially with out Leonard their best player. What we have seen so far from the Raptors is that defense is optional giving up 100 to the Bulls and 94 to the Sixers neither team with a great offense.
Yes, the Spurs generally play slow but they did play a similar athletic team in the T Wolves and that total went over. With the Raptors so far averaging 122 a game I do think they can score and so will the Spurs.
Jack Jones
76ers / Pistons Under 214½
The Detroit Pistons actually play defense, especially at home. They have a stopper in Andre Drummond in the middle, which is a big reason why. But UNDERS have been a profitable bet in Pistons games.
The UNDER is 13-3 in Pistons last 16 home games. The UNDER is 14-2 in Pistons last 16 Monday games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Pistons last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
After opening 0-3, the 76ers will show more fight defensively tonight as they try and get their first win of the season. This team has been pretty lost on offense as well due to all the new pieces, scoring 92 and 94 points int heir last two games.
The Pistons and 76ers have combined for 199, 176, 207, 196, 209 and 209 points in their last six meetings in Detroit. That's an average of 199.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than this 214.5-point total. There is clear value on the UNDER.
Dave Price
Raptors vs. Spurs
Play: Raptors +3
The San Antonio Spurs have been good enough to beat the Timberwolves and Bulls without Kawhi Leonard. But they needed a big finish in the 4th quarter to put away the Timberwolves on opening night. Now they are up against a seasoned team like the Toronto Raptors who are probably the second-best team in the East. I think the wrong team is favored in this game. The Raptors have won their first two games by a combined 51 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +5½ over PHILADELPHIA
The last time we saw the Redskins was last week at home to San Francisco and as a 10-point choice, Washington narrowly escaped, 26-24. The ‘Skins dodged a bullet by a team the Cowboys destroyed yesterday. The Redskins are now 3-2 with victories over the Rams, Raiders and 49ers. They also lost at home to these same Eagles in Week 1, back in D.C. by a score of 30-17. The general feeling out there is that the Redskins are improved from last year but they are a second tier NFC team that is not in the same class as the true contenders in the conference (like Philadelphia) while the Eagles are damn close to being the best team in the league or the favorite to win the Super Bowl. When you get behind these overly-hyped teams, there is always a price to pay, especially in prime time. You will pay that price to back the home team here and it’s a risk not worth taking.
Philadelphia is 5-1 with only loss occurring against Kansas City in a game they could’ve easily won. They also have a QB that is getting headlines. Carson Wentz has thrown 13 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He's thrown for three 300 yard games and his best efforts are at home. Wentz passed for seven scores over the last two games and opened the year with 307 yards and two scores in Washington. It would be very easy to get behind the Eagles here because a good case can be made for doing so but don’t allow the media to convince you of something that has yet to be proven. Yes, Philadelphia is good but they might be the second best team here. Defensively, the Eagles are definitely the second best team here.
The Giants scored 24 on the Eagles defense and nearly beat them. The Chargers scored 24 also and should’ve beaten them. Last week in Carolina, Cam Newton threw three picks otherwise Carolina would’ve beaten them also. The Eagles only convincing win this season was against the heartless and old Cardinals by a score of 34-7. What’s more interesting is that Philadelphia was at home against Arizona and was a six-point favorite and now they’re almost the exact same price against the Redskins? That can’t be. Each of Philadelphia’s other five games came down to the wire. We could easily be discussing a team that is 1-5, 2-4, 3-3 or 4-2 as opposed to a 5-1 team because that’s how close the Eagles have come to losing a bunch of games. As the wins pile up, so do expectations and pressure to win. Remember last year when the Eagles started out on fire too but ended up losing nine of its last 13 games? Yes, the Eagles are better this year and Carson Wentz is a year older but heavy is the favorite's crown and few teams learn to wear it without some trial and error. The Eagles had no expectations last year but now expectations are through the roof.
Washington’s two losses this year were to Philadelphia and K.C. They were the better team against the Chiefs and were driving for the winning TD against Philadelphia before a turnover made the score look far worse than it was. The Redskins are stacked. Defensively, they do not relent for a second and play with as much ferociousness as any team in the NFL. The Redskins defense has talent in spades and a nasty attitude to go with it. The offense is also good. Remember, the ‘Skins were built by former GM Scot McCloughan, who is widely considered to be one of best evaluators ever. He was fired last year for showing up drunk to work (allegations) but the point is that he built this team to win. Contrary to public perception, Philadelphia is not spectacular. They give up big plays constantly and could easily find itself in a hole here that may be tough to dig out of. The ‘Skins have a big edge on defense and they are the more balanced team here taking back some significant points in prime time. Pencil us in for that.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose +105 over N.Y. RANGERS
Before we begin and until further notice, we’re going to be splitting up our NHL underdogs into two bets. We’re playing them straight up for 1 unit and we’ll be playing them on the reverse puck line (-1½) for 1 unit, thus making up our traditional 2 unit bet. The thinking is that if the dog loses, we lose our bet anyway. If the game goes into OT, which is a coin-toss anyway, we lose our -1½ bet but have a chance to profit a pork-chop if we happen to get lucky and win it in the extra time. If our team is winning by a goal, we know for sure we’ll get a crack at an empty netter and there is also a good chance that if our team is ahead, it might be by more than one goal anyway. Therefore, our bet for this game and every dog we play will be -1½ for 1 unit and straight up for one unit.
OT included. The Rangers are coming off a 4-2 win on Saturday against the Predators that broke a nasty five-game losing streak. That works in our favor because a win is a win is a win and it looks good on paper. Thing is, the Rags mustered a mere 15 shots on net against Nashville and played most of the game in their own end. New York has surrendered 220 scoring chances against and only one team, the Penguins have surrendered more (223). Incidentally, Pittsburgh has a 10-1 loss and a 7-1 loss this year, which is a strong indication of what can happen when you constantly give up a barrage of scoring chances. Analytically, the Rags are a wasteland and above the surface it’s much of the same. New York is 1-4 against top-10 teams. Its two wins this year were against Nashville and Montreal and they were badly outshot in both. The New York Rangers will not outplay the Sharks here and if they win, it’ll be all luck driven, based on in-game variance.
We played the Sharks on Saturday and they lost 5-3 in Brooklyn to the Islanders. They lost because Thomas Greiss was better than Aaron Dell. Goaltending decides many games in the NHL but tonight, we trust we have the edge with Martin Jones against Queen Henrik. The Sharks have outshot and outplayed every one of their opponents this year but one. San Jose is 3-2 over its last five games with both losses over that span occurring against the Islanders. However, San Jose outshot the Islanders by a ridiculous combined count of 72-46. That’s equivalent to what the Panthers did to the Bears yesterday under the hood. If you played San Jose along with us on Saturday, don’t be discouraged by the result. The Sharks are a top-3 possession team and coming off a loss only makes them hungrier. Wrong side favored.
The bets are as follows:
San Jose -1½ +2.67 for 1 unit
San Jose +105 for 1 unit
Hank Goldberg
Redskins at Eagles
Play: Redskins +5
For Monday's Week 7 NFL matchup between the Redskins and Eagles, I'm leaning to Washington as a road underdog over Philadelphia. The pair met in Week 1 and the Redskins lost by 13, despite having four turnovers and the last one went for a touchdown. QB Kirk Cousins
Bob Balfe
Redskins/Eagles Over 49
This is going to be a great NFC East showdown tonight in Philadelphia. The Eagles can put a strangle hold on their division with a win this evening. Washington can get right back in the with a win tonight. Philadelphia won the earlier match up this season so it will be that much harder for them to do so again tonight. You can throw out much of the stats in any divisional game. When the Redskins have the ball they have a very good offensive line, but lack depth with injury so they have to hope nobody gets hurt. This Skins team is well balanced with the running game and passing attack. Kurt Cousins is accurate and can take off with his feet. The Redskins have a bunch of tight ends that can catch the ball and many formations that are hard to defend. The Eagles have a great front seven so this will be a very good matchup all night. Carson Wentz is on his way to possibly being the MVP this year. The Eagles tonight will have a great shot at a lot of points with the Redskins Secondary being a complete mess due to injury. The Eagles have great tight end play of their own and can play power football with Blount running the ball. I think both offenses have the advantage tonight. This Redskins team will grind and fight to the end and by no means will this be an easy game for the 1st place Eagles. Look for a lot of points from both teams. Take the Over.
Harry Bondi
Redskins / Eagles Under 49
These two teams met in Week 1 and the posted total was the same exact number at 49. That game went under with the Eagles prevailing 30-17, even though Philly connected on a 54-yard bomb for a TD, nailed a 50-yard field goal and there were two defensive scores, including a fumble return for a TD by the Eagles with 30 seconds left in the game. Having said that, we’ll call for another under here tonight as 29 of the last 49 meetings between these two teams has gone under and only once in the last five meetings have they combined for more than 49 points. Go under.
Dr Bob
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Strong Opinion – Washington (+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles are scoring nearly 28 points/game this season (6th) but much of that is due to luck. Philadelphia has converted an unsustainable 51% of 3rd downs this season, which will certainly drop given that no team has converted more than 50% of 3rd downs in the last 5 seasons and the teams to do so prior to that had Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks. The Eagles 3rd down offense ranks first according to my metrics, while their 1st-2nd down offense ranks 30th – I expect them to regress towards the mean on 3rd down moving forward, which will kill more of their drives before they have a chance to score.
Philadelphia’s offense may have a difficult matchup this week against Washington. The Redskins defense ranks 13th in my numbers despite facing three top-10 offenses in five games, including this Eagles team. Furthermore, Washington’s defense has been unlucky in high leverage situations and actually ranks 5th when filtering out 3rd down and redzone plays, which are highly variable and are likely to improve for Washington going forward. The Redskins will likely be without two starting cornerbacks, as Josh Norman is out and Bashaud Breeland is questionable. However, the Redskins have been getting good play from their other cornerbacks too, so the drop probably won’t be that significant and they held San Francisco to 49% completions and 5.0 yards per pass play last week without Norman, which is less than the Niners’ 5.2 yppp season average.
Kirk Cousins pass offense ranks 3rd in my metrics and is improving as he gains familiarity with his new weapons. Cousins has thrown for a combined 9.7 yppp in Washington’s last 3 games after struggling a bit the first two weeks. The Redskins offense has been very unfortunate to lose 1.4 fumbles per game this season (no team last season averaged more than 0.9) and that has made the offense appear to be worse than it actually is.
I rate the Redskins as the better team and the injuries to Washington’s secondary have already been priced into this inflated line. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.
Rob Vinciletti
Atlanta at Miami
Play: Over
The Hawks fly down into Miami after getting beat by double digits in Brooklyn. That loss sets up a powerful totals system that has played over 29 of 34 times the past 23 years. Play the over for conference home favorites with rest like Miami that failed to cover at a home favorite of 5 or more despite scoring 110 or more points, vs an opponent off a spread loss as a road dog like Atlanta. Miami has played over in both of their first 2 games and have looked solid scoring the ball. That said they have not looked so good on defense. Atlanta has no rest and allowed 116 last night. Look for a higher scoring game.
Stephen Nover
Toronto vs. San Antonio
Play: San Antonio -150
San Antonio has defeated Toronto eight consecutive times at home, including 110-82 last season.
Yes, Kawhi Leonard remains out. But Toronto also has a key injury as its best big man, Jonas Valanciunas, won't play because of a sprained ankle.
The Raptors are 2-0. Those victories have come against a pair of winless teams, the Bulls and 76ers. This is a huge step up for the Raptors. It's also their first road game.
The Spurs have a history of playing to the level of their competition. They showed this by knocking off the much-improved Timberwolves in their opener. The Spurs then defeated the Bulls, 87-77, on Saturday.
San Antonio is playing outstanding defense holding the Timberwolves to 43.5 percent shooting from the floor and the Bulls to 37.8 percent. LaMarcus Aldridge has thrived in Leonard's absence averaging 26.5 points and 10 rebounds.
Toronto's bench isn't as strong as it was last season either.
OC Dooley
Suns +2.5
After playing just THREE games with a pair in front of the home fans Phoenix has already FIRED head coach Earl Watson immediately after a game where he challenged both the "fight" and "leadership" of his sqaud including backcourt star Eric Bledsoe who publicly has claimed he no longer wants to play in the Valley of the Sun. Phoenix lost game-one by a humiliating 124-76 count which was the worst margin of loss in a "home opener" in NBA HISTORY and the Suns defense permitted 131 points in game-two before hitting the highway and losing by a 42 point count. Despite the disastrous start at most offshore locations Phoenix actually "opened" as a FAVORITE late this evening which to me speaks volumes. Sacramento is now laying points but it should be pointed out that in the past five years "favorites" like the Kings who were horrible the prior season (just a 25-to-40 win percentage) are a disastrous 15-43 ATS