Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, October 24th, 2016

Randall the Handle

Texans (4-2) at Broncos (4-2)

The Texans will probably win the AFC South. That doesn’t mean they’re any good. They may think they’re good after an improbable win on Sunday night but that was certainly not one to gloat about. If your team has scored just nine points through 57 minutes against Indianapolis’ defective defense, guess what Houston? You’ve got a problem. QB Brock Osweiler remains subpar with poor stats across the board including an equal amount of interceptions (8 ) as touchdown passes. Osweiler would like nothing more than to stick it to John Elway’s club after the Broncos showed little interest in keeping him in Colorado. By the same token, Denver will want to prove its boss right, especially after stinging from a pair of losses before having 10 days to ready for this one. Winless on the road, Houston has been outscored 58-13 in its two away games when shutout 27-0 by Brady-less Patriots then being trounced 31-13 by Denver-like Vikings. Texans are once again in primetime but certainly aren’t ready for it. TAKING: BRONCOS –7½

Scott Rickenbach

Texans vs. Broncos
Play: Over 40½

Beautiful weather expected at Sports Authority Field in Denver tonight. Clear skies, mild temperatures for late October, and light winds. The over is 13-1 in Broncos games when they are facing a non-divisional AFC opponent with a winning percentage of .666 or better. That said, the AFC South Texans (4-2 this season) fit the bill. Taking a look at Houston, the over is 10-1 in their October games the past 3 Octobers combined. Also, the over is on an 18-11 run in Denver's games against AFC South opponents and on a 33-21 run in Broncos games when they are on a losing streak of 2 games or more. I don't want to put too much here as to how I expect this game to play out as I do have a Premium Pick on the side tonight and don't want to "tip my hand". However, as you can see from the above, in terms of the total on tonight's game, there is certainly plenty of support for the over in this one

Jim Feist

Flyers at Canadiens
Pick: Over

Montreal sits atop the Atlantic Division with a 4-0-1 record in five games. The club has scored 20 goals in five games (4.0 avg). Montreal has been a good over teams, with a 10-4 O/U record dating back to last season. The Flyers are fifth in the Metropolitan division with a 2-2-1 record. The Flyers have scored 19 goals in four games, but have also given up 19 goals. It's early in the season, but Montreal should get at least four goals in this contest.

Mark Franco

Broncos -8

Brock Osweiler was instrumental in the Denver Broncos' run to a Super Bowl championship, but he was still allowed to walk via free agency in the offseason despite an obvious need at quarterback. Osweiler returns to the Mile High City off his best performance of the season when the Houston Texans visit the Denver Broncos on Monday night.

Osweiler's numbers were nondescript at best through much of the first six games, but he tossed a pair of touchdowns in the final 2:37 of regulation to spark a comeback in Houston's 26-23 overtime win over Indianapolis last weekend. Running back Lamar Miller, also a marquee free-agent signing in the offseason, is coming off his best game by rushing for 149 yards and scoring his first two touchdowns -- one on the ground and one receiving. Star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a season-high nine receptions against the Colts, but his longest catch went for only 12 yards.

Defense carried Denver to the Super Bowl title last season and it ranks No. 1 in yards against the pass (182.3) and in sacks (21), but the running game is struggling to get untracked. Lead back C.J. Anderson has failed to rush for 50 yards in four consecutive games and is starting to lose touches to rookie Devontae Booker. Siemian, who suffered a shoulder injury in Week 4 that caused him to miss one game, has not been picked off since Week 2 and has a pair of top wideouts in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, who have combined for 67 receptions and six touchdowns.

Houston is 4-0 at home and 0-2 on the road, losing the two away games by a combined 58-13. Denver wins by at least 10 points.

SPORTS WAGERS

DENVER -7½ over Houston

We’re going to put this week in the bank and not bet this game but if we had to, by process of elimination, we would have to take the Broncs. In other words, we would not bet on Brock Osweiler and the Texans, even if the game was final. The most remarkable thing about the Texans is that they’re 4-2. That’s remarkable because a team that bad should not be 4-2. Anyway, there is nothing to suggest that Osweiler deserved the $37 million in guarantees that the Texans paid. That will go down as one of the worst deals in NFL history. John Elway knew this stiff was terrible too. It says a lot that the Broncos were not only willing to part with a quarterback they drafted and groomed over a number of years to succeed Peyton Manning, but they also took pains to shade his behind on the way out the door. We’re not the most pro-management website but even we can tell that the Broncos dumped Osweiler because he’s useless and even that might be generous. The Texans have played two road games this year and lost them both by 18 points or more. Against New England, they crossed the 50-yard line once and were shutout, 27-0. Houston’s wins came against Chicago, Tennessee, Indiana and Kansas City. They were lucky to win three of those four and the win against K.C. was because the Chiefs did not show up and played horribly. Let us remind you in case you forgot that you sat through that shitshow, the Texans lost 30-0 in the Wild Card round to Kansas City last year. Houston’s last three road games have them losing all three by a combined score of 88-13.

The Broncos have dropped two straight, which includes the last time we saw them during prime time against the Chargers. That has their stock lower than it should be, at least for this one game. Trevor Siemian threw 50 passes in that game and yet ended with just 230 yards on 30 completions with one touchdown. It was a big disappointment against what is normally a bad Chargers secondary but Siemian had thrown for 312 yards and four scores in Cincinnati in his last full game prior to that one. Perhaps the Texans keep this one close for a half but figure their defense to be on the field for most of this game until they are worn out and dead tired. We all saw Arizona dominate field position, time of possession and total yards last night and not cover. Expect Denver to dominate even more here. Seahawks backers got extremely lucky last night but lightning will not strike twice in two nights for the team that gets dominated. Man, is this one tempting. Play Denver (no bets).

Pass NHL

SPORTS WAGERS

Edmonton +750 to win Grey Cup

This is strictly a value play. The Stampeders are a -140 favorite and while they absolutely deserve to be a significant favorite, there is no value whatsoever to play a favorite in that range in a one and done format. The real key here is the format the team CFL uses because there are four teams in the East and five teams in the West. That allows one team from the West to “cross-over” to the East for the playoffs and although there are still two weeks remaining, it appears as though Edmonton is going to be that crossover team. In other words, Edmonton will become an “East” team for the playoffs and will not have to go through Winnipeg, B.C. and/or Calgary to get to the Grey Cup final. They will likely play Montreal in the East semi-final and then play either Ottawa or Hamilton for the opportunity to play in the Grey Cup. There is also an outside chance that Winnipeg or B.C. knocks off Calgary and then this bet has even more appeal.

Edmonton crossing over into the East doesn’t mean an automatic trip to the Grey Cup but there is great value in all the East teams to win it (Ottawa 10-1, Hamilton 14-1). We are choosing Edmonton because they would instantly turn into the best team in the East once the crossover takes place and should they get to the Grey Cup, it would provide an outstanding hedge opportunity.

Incidentally, if Winnipeg wins one of its two remaining games, Edmonton becomes the crossover team. Also, if Edmonton loses one of its two remaining games, they become the crossover team. The only way that Winnipeg becomes the crossover team is if Edmonton wins its final two while Winnipeg loses its final two. That is extremely unlikely to happen.