Free Picks for Monday, October 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Randall The Handle
Redskins (1-1) at Chiefs (3-0)
Difficult to fade the Chiefs right now as they are doing everything right while being a money machine for their backers. Kansas City has failed to cover just twice in past 15 regular-season games. Now they take on a visitor that is being asked to compete against the Raiders and this host in back-to-back weeks. While the Redskins can be commended for their stellar play thus far, this will be toughest defensive team they will have faced with K.C. having allowed just two of previous eight opponents to exceed 20 points. Offensively, no one is in more of a groove than Kansas City QB Alex Smith. Smith owns a league-leading 132.7 passer rating while tied for second with seven TD throw and zero interceptions. TAKING: CHIEFS -7
Dr Bob
Washington Redskins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has been the league’s best team in my metrics through 3 weeks – the Chiefs rank 2nd on offense and 7th on defense. Kareem Hunt leads the league’s top-ranked rushing offense. In fact, Kansas City has gained more than double the amount of points from their ground game than any other team. However, Hunt and the KC offensive line will be challenged by a Washington run defense that ranks 5th according to my numbers.
The match-up isn’t particularly good for the Redskins’ offense either, as that unit has gotten it done through the air this year (6th in my ratings in passing) while Kansas City’s pass defense ranks 7th in my numbers. This will be another matchup of strength vs strength and overall my model favors Kansas City by 8.8 points. The line value is certainly not enough on its own to make this a play but Kansas City applies to a 68-26-1 ATS Monday night football situation and unbeaten teams (2-0 or better) are 19-3-1 ATS at home on Monday nights as long as they’re not favored by more than 7 points.
Washington. meanwhile, is in a letdown situation this week after last weeks’ satisfying upset win over the Raiders. Teams with winning records that are coming off a win as a home underdog are just 99-150-8 ATS in road games and the Redskins also apply to a negative 39-93-3 ATS road letdown situation. We had a Strong Opinion on Washington in a very good situation last week and no the situation is against the Skins. In the last 15 seasons, Kansas City is 8-3 ATS in night games at Arrowhead with the only losses coming to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Kurt Cousins is not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less (-110 odds or better).
Joey Juice
Monday night's comp play is the Redskins-Chiefs to hold Under the total.
Both of these teams feature very stingy defenses. We saw this with the Kansas City defense versus Philip Rivers and the San Diego offensive machine.
We also saw this with the Washington Redskins defense versus the red hot Oakland Raiders last week, giving up only 128 total yards on the entire day. They put Derek Carr in a chokehold and held him to less.then 120 passing yards.
Leading the defensive charge for the Redskins is Preston Smith. He made made one of four Redskin sacks vs the Raiders, and he has now made 3 sacks already so far this season.
This after only recording 4.5 total sacks last year. Add to that the fact that Alex Smith is not a big play quarterback and tends to try to control the clock with short passes, this game is an under.
2* WASHINGTON-KANSAS CITY UNDER
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY -7 over Washington
The Redskins are coming off a great, prime time 27-10 win over the Raiders last Sunday night. Kirk Cousins took home NFC player of the week honors after throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns and showed some swagger with a near-perfect passer rating of 150.7. Cousins' performance was even more impressive when you consider he was without his number one target in tight end Jordan Reed and lead runner, “Fat” Rob Kelly. Washington is now 2-1 with its Week 2 victory at the Rams looking even more impressive after L.A. went into Big D and got a W over the Redskins' NFC East rivals. Against Oakland, the Redskins grounded the high-flying Raiders offense and limited them to just 128 yards and the market has taken notice. The timing to jump on the Redskins is off by a week. They were jacked up for a home game in prime time and now they’ll go from the comfortable confines of FedEx Field to the frothing fans at Arrowhead Stadium, who have been waiting three years to host Monday Night Football. A rude awakening for Cousins and company is waiting.
Again, this is the first MNF game the Chiefs have hosted since 2014, so you know Arrowhead will be rocking. Kansas City has quietly gone about their business the last two weeks with wins over the Chargers and Eagles and it is now 3-0 after everyone saw them blast the Patriots to open the season. Kansas City has established themselves as a powerhouse in the early part of this season. The Chiefs are the only remaining undefeated team after a Sunday full of upsets and they have been executing at a new perfect level through three weeks. Quarterback Alex Smith, a former number one pick, has seemingly shed his “game manager” moniker with 774 yards and seven touchdowns in three games. Smith is surrounded with weapons like rookie runner Kareem Hunt and speedster Tyreek Hill, not to mention Travis Kelce, who just might be the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL. Hunt and Hill are both home run hitters, as the rookie runner has three touchdowns of 50 yards or more while Hill has a 30-yard TD grab and 75-yard major on his resume this season. The Chiefs lead the league in rushing and are third in total offense.
With back to back wins over the Rams and Raiders, we can understand how Washington may have some appeal taking back a touchdown tonight, but we must be mindful of not overreacting to the results of these high-profile prime time games. The Redskins feasted on a weak Oakland defense last Sunday, but a different animal awaits them here. Heading into Week 4, the Chiefs defense led the league in sacks (11), were second in forced fumbles (5) and third in interceptions (4) while giving up an average of 19 points per game, good for seventh overall in the league. It's never wise to step in front of a freight train and with the Chiefs barreling down the tracks with their next stop at home in prime time, we lean their way big time. Washington’s Kirk Cousins’ has some skewed numbers so don’t buy into his coming of age hype, as he ranks 24th in the NFL in QB passer rating. The Redskins embarrassed the Raiders in prime time last week and now K.C. is about to return the favor.
Scott Rickenbach
Redskins vs. Chiefs
Play: Over 48
Off of a 5-2 with all NFL picks (including free) yesterday and last Sunday was also a big 6-2 with all football picks (including CFL) and I have a big play on the side in tonight's game so be sure to grab that right NOW for tonight. As for the total, I love the added value here as this total has dropped down to a 48 this morning. Note that the Chiefs are allowing 257.3 passing yards per game this season. Also, both these teams are running the ball very well. Washington is averaging 136.3 rushing yards per game and it is 162 rushing yards per game for KC! Being able to establish the ground game keeps defenses "honest" and they have to keep men up in the box to stop the run. Of course in turn that creates more opportunities downfield in the passing game. The Chiefs threw for over 350 yards in their primetime game at New England in the season opener. The Redskins threw for over 350 yards in their win over Oakland last week. The point is that both these teams have plenty of options on offense and the over is on an 11-4 run in Redskins road games. Also, when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more, the over is 5-2 in Washington's games. The Skins have scored 27 points in each of their last two games and the Chiefs are averaging 31 points per game on the season.
Tennis Insiders
Benoit Paire vs. Y Sugita
Play: Y Sugita -110
Huge match for Yuichi Sugita, playing at a career high ranking of 40 at his home tournament. He's 0-5 at this venue, but the past 10 months have seen a remarkable upswing in performances, and this looks an excellent opportunity for him to get off the mark. Benoit Paire is erratic and the variety Sugita offers combined with the lack of crowd support could easily annoy the Frenchman, who is capable of a no-show especially in the early rounds of tournaments. Sugita comes in off a semi-final appearance in Chengdu last week, expect to keep the rhythm & confidence flowing in front of his compatriots.