Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, October 30th, 2017

Randall The Handle

Broncos (3-3) at Chiefs (5-2)

This week’s overreaction game. The Broncos cannot be a full touchdown underdog to this rival. The past three seasons has never experienced a spread above 3½ points in this series. We’re well aware of Denver’s failure to score points recently but that has presented us with this ‘buy low’ opportunity. We’re well aware of the Broncos’ impotency on offence, having scored just 42 points over their past four games. However, Denver still ranks 15th in both passing and total yards. The end zone has been foreign but facing Kansas City’s 29th ranked defence (yards allowed) should ease that burden. In addition, haven’t the Chiefs dropped back to back games? Last week’s defeat to Oakland also featured a divisional foe that entered the game suffering from recent offensive production before Derek Carr threw for 417 yards and three majors. Denver’s defence remains a top unit, certainly more than worthy of taking back this offering. TAKING: BRONCOS +7

Jim Feist

Broncos at Chiefs
Play: Under 43.5

If you see a milk cartoon with the Broncos offense it's because they have gone missing. The Broncos scored 16 points in week 4, had week 5 off, then scored 10 points in a home loss to the Giants where they looked completely out of sorts and then last week where shutout by the Chargers, 21-0. That's 26 total points in their last three games. Defenses are forcing the Broncos to pass and that has been a big problem for QB Trevor Siemian. The last time the Broncos were shutout was 1992. Now these teams meet on Halloween night and it might be a scary night for the Broncos. The Broncos have gone UNDER in nine of their last 13 games against a team with a winning record. The Chiefs have been a great home under team, posting a 18-40 O/U mark in their last 58 at Arrowhead Stadium. Broncos offensive problems just won't cure themselves. I'm taking the UNDER here on Monday.

DAVE COKIN

NUGGETS AT KNICKS
PLAY: NUGGETS -4

This falls into what amounts to a blind situational opinion for me. I like going against lousy teams after they play an unusually strong game. In this case, the New York Knicks have played two really good games in succession, blasting the Nets on Friday before traveling to Cleveland and smashing the Cavaliers on Sunday. That sets up a reality check tonight as New York heads back to MSG to host Denver.

The Nuggets also played on Sunday, getting a comfortable win against Brooklyn. Now Denver gets to take on a team they’ve handled well recently, covering each of the last five meetings with the Knicks. In fact, this has been a chalky series for the most part.

But the main thing for me is that I like the premise of going against what I believe to be a bad Knicks squad off two straight very good performances. I see it as a decent likelihood that New York regresses to its norm sooner rather than later. So I’ll be looking to give the points tonight with Denver as the Monday free play.

Brandon Lee

Spurs vs. Celtics
Play:Celtics -3½

I'll back Boston as a short home favorite against the Spurs on Monday. This isn't just another game for the Celtics, who have lost 11 straight to San Antonio. It's a great spot for Boston, who comes in riding a 4-game winning streak and had yesterday off while the Spurs were playing at Indiana. San Antonio lost to the Pacers 94-97 as a 6.5-point favorite. That followed an ugly 87-114 loss at Orlando on Friday. The offense really showed signs of missing their MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard and I think the struggles continue here against a Celtics defense that hasn't allowed more than 92 points during their winning streak. I also think we could see Popovich either rest or limit some of his key players in this one, so get this in early if you like Boston.

Ray Monohan

Warriors vs. Clippers
Play: Over 221

The Clippers and Warriors clash on Monday night in a marquee game and the Over here has a lot of value.

For starters, the Warriors were shocked at home on Sunday night, which should bring out a very fired up bunch here. After leading by double digits in the 2nd half, the Warriors went cold on both ends of the floor. They should have a lot of pace to them here tonight, as they know the Clippers like to run as well.

The Warriors are averaging 120 points per road game this season, as their pace has been unbelievable at times. The Clippers 106.2 per game isn't anything to overlook either. This team is extremely quick and will take on a defense that is allowing 114 points per game.

Some trends to note. Over is 5-2-1 in Clippers last 8 Monday games. Over is 22-8 in Warriors last 30 overall.

This one should see a lot of back and forth action here.

Jimmy Boyd

Magic vs. Pelicans
Play: Under 227

With Orlando coming off a game against Charlotte with 233 points scored and the Pelicans having gone OVER in 4 of their last 5, I think the books have inflated Monday's total between the Magic and Pelicans, creating some great value on the UNDER.

Orlando ranks near the top of the league in pace, but don't figure to be playing at their normal tempo here, as they are in the second of a back-to-back set on the road after playing in Charlotte on Sunday. Magic had five different players log over 30 minutes and only used a 9-man rotation. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 days.

I also don't think we see the Pelicans flying up and down the floor, as they are in a prime letdown spot after their 123-101 win at home over the Cavaliers.

UNDER is 13-3-1 in New Orleans last 17 vs a team with a winning record and 21-10 in their last 31 games against bad defensive teams that are allowing 106+ points/game.

Teddy Davis

Warriors vs. Clippers
Play: Warriors -5½

I will the number here with the Warriors even though they have only covered one game so far this season. The Clippers have been the exact opposite as they have covered every game but 1 so far.

The main reason here is that we have heard time and time again how much the Warriors treat back to back games. Well, last night they laid an egg against the Pistons at home and here we go with a back to back spot. I think the Warriors respond big time here.

It's also worth noting that the Clippers have beat the Suns Lakers and Jazz all at home. Not exactly world beaters by any means. They were extremely lucky two games back as Griffin hit a game winner at the buzzer against me for the win.

Power Sports

Orlando vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans -7

This is hardly an ideal spot for the visiting Magic, who played - and lost - last night in Charlotte. That was my *10* Game of the Week and it cashed "going away" as the Hornets led by as many as 16 in the second half. In my analysis for the game, I wrote about the Magic's surprising start and how it would ultimate prove unsustainable. Going into yday, the Magic had enjoyed a substantial edge in shooting percentage compared to their previous opponents. That's bound to regress and we started to see a little bit of that yday when they allowed Charlotte to shoot better than 54% from the field.

The Pelicans are off an extremely impressive performance Saturday, that being a 123-101 win (here at home) over Cleveland. It was their third win in the last four games overall and tonight figures to be one of the more favorable spots in the entire first month of the season. It's just the second time that the Pelicans have been favored and the first time at home. Then again, playing your first two home games against both of LY's NBA Finalists is a pretty tough assignment. New Orleans has also had to play both Portland and Memphis so far, two teams off to strong starts.

The Magic are just 3-10 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the total is 220 pts or higher. That shows me that they struggle to compete in games that are expected to be high-scoring. The Pelicans have scored at least 114 points in four of their last five games. The Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins combo is going to be hard to defend even for the best teams in this league. Like last night, Orlando is again expected to be w/o starting PG Elfrid Payton, a big loss for them.

Jim Feist

Mavericks at Jazz
Pick: Under 192

Dallas slow out of the gate with a 1-6 start to the season and 0-2 on the road. The Mavs haven't fared much better against the spread, covering just two of seven. The Utah Jazz are 3-3 on the season, but 3-0 at home both S/U and ATS. Good news for the Jazz is that eight of their next nine games come at home. The Mavs are allowing 107.4 ppg while scoring just 99.6 ppg. Utah's defense has been good as usual, allowing just 93.8 ppg thus far. At home the "D" has been even better, allwoing just 88 ppg. Can't expect much out of the struggling Mavs here, playing in the high altitude of Salt Lake city. The Jazz shut them down here on Monday.

Harry Bondi

Denver / Kansas City Under 42.5

No need to overthink this one. With an offense that hasn’t cracked the 17-point plateau since Week 1 and a defense that is ranked No. 1 in the NFL, the Broncos are a dead “under” team right now. Kansas City, meanwhile, has gone under in 13 of its last 19 home games and the under has cashed 20 times in the last 33 games in which the Chiefs were listed as the favorite. The last few meetings between these teams have gone over, but at 42.5 points this is is the highest total for a Denver-KC game since the 2014 regular season, so we’ll take advantage and go under.

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia at Houston
Play: Houston -6.5

The Rockets will look to bounce back off a road loss to Memphis where they were held to under 90 points. They take on a Philly team they beat on the road last week. Philly lost by 27 here in Houston last season. Home favorites of 5 or more with rest that are off a 7+ point spread loss on the road are 5-0 to the spread since 1995 vs a team like Philly that scored 110 or more and covered on the road last out. Look for the Rockets to get the cover.

Bruce Marshall

Toronto at Portland
Pick: Toronto

Toronto beat a similar-looking Blazers side in both meetings last season. Raps getting a lot of mileage from their new bench with C.J. Miles as the anchor. Normal Portland edge in backcourt with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum not apparent against Toronto's DeMar DeRozan and Kyle lowry.

Will Rogers

San Antonio vs. Boston
Pick: Boston -3.5

The set-up: The San Antonio Spurs opened 4-0 but have back-to-back losses (averaging just 90.5 PPG) on this current four-game road trip that concludes with tonight's game at TD Garden in Boston against the Celtics. Boston has won four in a row, after opening with two losses, including its season-opener at Cleveland when the team's prized FA acquisition this past off-season. Gordon Hayward, went down with a season-ending injury.

San Antonio: Star SF Kawhi Leonard (quadriceps) has yet to play this season and the team has offered limited updates on his condition. Aldridge (25.7 & 9.0) has led the team in scoring in all six games and Gasol is beginning to chip in a bit more, averaging 14 points on 68 percent shooting in three games since a one-point effort against Toronto in which he missed all six of his shots. Manu Ginobili is 1-for-15 from the floor during the team's two-game slide, while fellow reserve Rudy Gay is 4-for-14.
Boston: It's no surprise (actually, it's to been expected) that Kyrie leads the Celtics with 21.3 PPG. He's getting solid help from the veteran Horford (15.2 & 8.8 ) plus rookie Tatum (15.2 & 6.3) and second year player Brown (15.0 & 6.2). Irving has settled in nicely as Boston's PG (5.7 APG) and has provided a great example of how he can carry a team. He scored nine of his 24 points in the last two-plus minutes of Boston's most recent win over Miami.

The pick: History says the Spurs have won 11 straight meetings with the Celtics, with six of those victories coming in Boston. However, that was then and this is now. The Spurs played and lost on Sunday at Indiana, dropping them to 2-11 ATS in their last 13 playing either the first or second game of a back-to-back set. Boston's losing streak to San Antonio ends at 11, right here!

SPORTS WAGERS

Denver +7 over KANSAS CITY

The last time we saw the Chiefs was on Thursday night almost two weeks ago when they lost to the Raiders, 31-30. The market will forgive them for one lousy loss in a road game on a short week after they played the Steelers the week before. We’ll forgive the Chiefs too but perhaps they’ve become a bigger risk than this market thinks. Remember two weeks ago when the Chiefs were dominated by the Steelers. Pittsburgh outgained the Chiefs by close to 200 yards overall. That 19-13 final score might as well have been 41-13 because that’s how big a mismatch it was that day. How about three weeks ago in Houston? K.C. won 42-34 but they were outgained in that one too and were fortunate to win it. What about four weeks ago? That was that bizarre ending on Monday night against Washington in which the Chiefs were favored by 6½ and had a three-point lead until the final play of the game when they scored on a strip-6. The Chiefs were fortunate to escape that one too. K.C. was an eight-point dog to open the year in New England. Two weeks ago, they were -3½ at home to Pittsburgh. They were favored by -6½ over Washington on that Monday night a month ago and had no business covering. This is the most they’ve been favored all season long and frankly, they haven’t even played well in their own barn. All three of Alex Smith’s 300+ yard games were on the road and each had at least three touchdowns. At home, he's never had more than one passing touchdown and threw three of his four lowest yardage games at Arrowhead. The Chiefs have been outgained in four of their past six games and has been favored by four or less in every game but one. On this day however, the Chiefs are a seven-point choice against a bitter rival that knows them well because that bitter rival’s stock has hit the skids.

Denver was a 13-point favorite over the Giants in prime time two weeks ago and lost outright. We want to remind you that Philadelphia was a 13-point favorite over the 49ers yesterday, thus, the oddsmakers figured that Denver/ NYG was as big a mismatch as Phil/SF. Upsets happen so it was no big deal that the Broncos lost to the G-Men but it was a big deal that they followed that up with a 21-0 loss to the Chargers last week. Those two losses have triggered this outrageous line and we can assure you that the number 7 is posted all over that Broncos locker room. Every single player coach and insect inside that Broncs dressing room knows the spread for this game and it’s disrespectful to all of them. More importantly, it’s hugely motivating too. You take a team like Denver with all of its talented defensive players and pedigree and back them into a corner and they’re likely to respond with a great effort. They were told they couldn’t beat Cam Newton and the Panthers in the Super Bowl the year before last and they came out and destroyed them.

It's always critical to determine why the games play out the way they do after the fact, and whether the outcome reveals more strength in the victor or weakness in the vanquished. Denver’s recent woes have been blamed on QB Trevor Siemian and rightfully so but Siemian wasn't nearly this bad in 2016 with the same receivers and remember what he did to Dallas in Week 2? We always want to identify teams that are good but have looked really bad recently and this is one of those spots. The past two weeks, as identified in this space, was the time to fade the Broncs because their stock was too high but that has changed based on losses to the Giants and Chargers. It is not the right time to fade the Broncs as that ship sailed already. Instead, the timing is now right to jump aboard this sinking ship before their stock rises again. Big time overlay here.