SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +112 over ST. LOUIS
With a 9-1-1 record, there is no denying the Kings are on fire, as they get set to wrap up this six-game road trip that started with a 6-4 win in Columbus. A 3-2 loss at Toronto has been the only blemish for Los Angeles, as it racked up wins in Boston, Montreal, and Ottawa. After dumping head coach Daryl Sutter in the offseason, the Kings are reinvigorated now that they’ve shed their former bench bosses' penchant for boring, defensive hockey. L.A. is routinely scoring goals in bunches, putting up at least four goals in five of its 10 games and averaging 3.4 goals per game. Although Sutter’s system is no longer in place and the Kings are more offensively minded, this is still a top 10 possession team (9th) with a Corsi For% of 51.0%. The Kings are 4-1 on this road trip and will leave nothing on the table in attempting to make it a near perfect trip. Winning is contagious and for the first time since they won the Cup, L.A. can’t wait to get to the rink again. Playing hockey is fun again.
Like the Kings, the Blues are also playing well by winning five of their last six games. St. Louis’s only loss in that time was in Vegas where the Knights are beating everyone. St. Louis is undefeated at home and are considered to be one of the “better” home teams in th8is market but it’s not all peaches and cream. The Blues are just 21st in Corsi For% behind the likes of Vancouver and Buffalo, two teams that do not carry nearly as much weight in the market. Against twop-10 teams, the Blues are just 2-2 but more importantly, they were outplayed in three of those four games. In fact, if you look below or above the hood, the Blues are behind Los Angeles in every stat, be it metric or otherwise. There is a great chance that the winner here will be decided by nothing but pure luck, which is why we stress playing value and letting the chips fall where they may. Of course the Kings can win here.
The bets are as follows:
Los Angeles -1½ +314 for 1 unit
Los Angeles +112 for 1 unit
Toronto +104 over SAN JOSE
The Sharks are solid. They very much resemble the same team that they’ve been putting on the ice for years. This is a hard-working, smart team that loves to play the cycle game and they’re good at it too. They usually employ forwards that work well in all three zones, which is why they are constantly among the best defensive teams in the NHL. San Jose has allowed two goals or less in five of their last six games while winning four of those. However, they’re also returning from a five game, East Coast trip and have a hated rival on deck in the Nashville Predators. Situationally, this is a good spot to fade the Sharks.
The timing for a West Coast trip couldn’t be better for the Leafs right now. The Leafs have lost two in a row and three of four. Toronto has been outscored 10-5 over its last two home games by Carolina and Philadelphia respectively. Four of their last five have been at home too. Last season, expectations were low and the Leafs embraced the underdog role. That’s a big contrast from this year in which Toronto’s projections were high and expectations were higher. That the Maple Leafs got off to such a great start raised expectations even higher to the point where they were the odds-on favorite to win the Cup after the first three weeks of the season. Well, heavy is the favorite’s crown and the Maple Leafs have not been wearing it well lately. They now get a chance to regroup and get away from this hockey hotbed and get back to playing winning hockey. The Maple Leafs are still hugely dangerous because of their ability to create and score goals. The timing is now perfect to get behind the Leafs on this trip, where for the first time this season, their stock is lower than it should be.
The bets are as follows:
Toronto -1½ +285 for 1 unit
Toronto +104 for 1 unit
Arizona +170 over PHILADELPHIA
How unlucky do you have to be to lose 11 games to open the season? Very. The last team to do so was the New York Rangers in 1943. Not even expansion teams, and there have been some horrible one’s, lost 11 in a row to open the year. The stunning part is that the Coyotes are not a bad hockey team. In fact, they’re pretty good. The Coyotes have scored the first goal eight times in those 11 games. They rank 14th in scoring chances, sandwiched between the Islanders and Canadiens. They rank 16th in high danger scoring chances against, sandwiched between the Blue Jackets and Flames. The ‘Yotes real problem is that everything is going in against them. Against New Jersey on Saturday, Arizona took a 3-2 lead into the third and outshot the Devils 15-6 in that period but lost 4-3. They outshot the Devils 37-25 overall. The Coyotes have outshot and out-chanced seven of their 11 opponents this year. What’s incredible is not that they have lost 11 straight but that they have yet to win. The Arizona Coyotes are playing too well to keep losing and so we’ll get behind them again here.
Philadelphia’s goaltending situation is very suspect as long as Brian Elliott is in goal and he’s confirmed here. Elliott’s save percentage is .884 but since the Flyers signed him to a big deal, they’ll continue to play him. The Coyotes goaltending situation is certainly not any better but Arizona is not the team spotting a big price. We also love that this one home game for the Flyers is sandwiched between four road games. The Flyers just played in Ottawa and Toronto and will head out to play in Chicago and St. Louis after this one. Obviously the victory in Toronto on Hockey Night in Canada was a big one that players look forward to every year. Aside from that, the Flyers metrics are worse than Arizona’s in several key categories. No question that the Flyers are dangerous but they are not ready or worthy of being this high a price against a team that is playing as well as they are. The Coyotes are just as dangerous and a lot more desperate.
The bets are as follows:
Arizona -1½ +433 for 1 unit
Arizona +171 for 1 unit
Montreal +108 over OTTAWA
One must embrace the fact that hockey is the most luck driven sport of them all in terms of final results. We have mentioned this in the past and will continue to pound that point home and try to take advantage of it. This game features two teams on opposite sides of the luck spectrum, as Montreal continues to dominate and lose while the Sens continue to get dominated and win. The early season results on both these team is in line for a correction and if Carey Price finds his footing, Montreal figures to go on a serious run.
Montreal is the third ranked possession team. They are constantly buzzing around in the opponents end but can’t seem to get those timely goals or they run into a hot goaltender. By contrast, the Senators are dead last in the NHL in puck possession time in the opponents end. In terms of PDO (save % + shooting %), a luck based metric, Montreal is dead last in the league, ranking 31st while the Sens PDO ranks fifth best/luckiest. It is a rare night when Montreal gats outplayed or out-worked and it’s also a rare night when the Senators outplay their opponent.
On Saturday night, Montreal jumped out to a 3-0 lead over the Rangers and outshot New York, 43-26 but the game ended 5-4. It wasn’t that close but Carey Price was shaky again. Also on Saturday, Vegas beat Colorado, 7-0. The Golden Knights had 21 shots on net and scored seven times but had one of the worst Corsi figures of the year. Colorado had 32 shots on net and didn’t score. These two examples of misleading results are not uncommon. We could go through the entire schedule every year and show you examples of it every night. Montreal is 0-5 against top-10 teams and 0-7 against top-16 teams. Does anyone understand how preposterous that truly is? It is a rare night when Montreal gets outplayed or out-worked and it’s also a rare night when the Senators outplay their opponent. Does that mean Montreal will win here? Absolutely not but we’re going with the best of it and that’s all we can ask.
The bets are as follows:
Montreal -1½ +292 for 1 unit
Montreal +108 for 1 units
John Martin
Hornets vs. Grizzlies
Play: Hornets +6½
I'll take a shot with the Charlotte Hornets at a nice underdog price here against the Memphis Grizzlies. This Hornets team is a lot healthier now than they were at the start of the season, and it's starting to show as they've won two of their last three games. The Grizzlies are off to a fast 5-1 start this season, but that's only causing them to get some love from the books and the prices with them won't be cheap in the immediate future because of it. The Hornets have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Grizzlies while winning three of those games outright. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Mike Lundin
Nuggets vs. Knicks
Play: Nuggets -4½
This is an obvious let down spot for the New York Knicks following a massive 114-95 win at Cleveland last night. Note that the Knicks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Tonight they'll host a Denver Nuggets side that won 124-111 at Brooklyn yesterday and is perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on no rest.
The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings with the Knicks and that's a perfect trend I think will continue for at least another contest.
Jack Jones
Raptors vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -2
We're getting a nice value with the Portland Trail Blazers as only 2-point home favorites over the Toronto Raptors today. The Blazers have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the league.
After playing their first three games on the road, the Blazers have played their last three games at home. They took care of business against the Suns and Pelicans, and their only loss came on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Blake Griffin and the upstart Clippers.
The Toronto Raptors are in the midst of a six-game road trip. They have lost two of their first three games on this trip before winning against the Lakers after getting a big second half. Now they'll be playing their fourth straight road game here tonight.
One key advantage the Blazers will have is on the board. The Blazers actually rank 1st in the NBA in rebound rate, grabbing 56.3% of all available boards. The Raptors rank 17th at 49.4%, and they have allowed 58 or more rebounds in three of their five games this season.
The Blazers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. The Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Raptors are 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings in Portland.
Scott Rickenbach
Golden Knights vs. Islanders
Play: Golden Knights +170
The Golden Knights have been the biggest surprise team of the NHL early this season and it is certainly no fluke. Not only have the Knights won 8 of their first 9 games, they've allowed 2 goals or less in 7 of their 9 games. No Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes...no problem as Vegas just continues to roll on. As for the Islanders they are also heating up and, admittedly the Isles have had the misfortune of playing a road-heavy early season schedule while the Golden Knights have been fortunate with a home-heavy early season schedule. However, the Islanders have allowed 3 goals or more in 9 of their 11 games! Simply looking at math alone in this one, the fact is that the Knights just very RARELY allow more than 2 goals and New York very RARELY allows less than 3 goals. A 3-2 win for the Golden Knights here sounds about right and I'll gladly take a shot with a +170 DOG that has lost just one game all season long! The Knights have won 3 of their 4 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Islanders have lost BOTH of their games when facing opponents with a winning record this season.
Chip Chirimbes
Spurs vs. Celtics
Play: Spurs +3½
I just don't believe that the Celtics can fully recover from the loss of Gordon Hayward and even though they are 4-2 and 5-1 ATS they just can't get 'there' if being lead by Kyrie Irving. The Spurs have lost their last two and will complete this short 4-game road trip that comes to an end here.
Doc's Sports
Hornets vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -6
The Hornets are coming in on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights as the Grizzlies had Sunday off and they have been very light on the schedule lately as they have played only one game since Thursday and they have been home since Wednesday. Memphis is one of the early surprises of the NBA season as they sit at 5-1 and they are 4-2 ATS. We aren’t sure if they can keep up the winning all season, but we are confident they will continue to play hard at the start of the season and we love that this line is less than the key number of 7 for a middling Eastern Conference team coming in here on the road in a tough back-to-back situation.
Dave Price
Nuggets vs. Knicks
Play: Nuggets -4
The Denver Nuggets are starting to play up to their massive potential after a slow start to the season. They have back-to-back road wins in Atlanta and Brooklyn and now look to cap off a successful trip out East against another bottom feeder in the New York Knicks. This is an awful spot for the Knicks, who will be in major letdown mode after upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road yesterday. New York is 4-13 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Knicks.
Tommy Brunson
Monday comp play is the Denver Broncos plus the points.
Both the Broncos and the Chiefs come in riding 2 game losing streaks, as Denver was shutout last weekend against the Chargers, while Kansas City drew a pair of defensive penalties with no time on the clock and got stunned in Oakland by the Raiders.
I suspect that the Denver injury situation is going to prevent the outright upset, but this pointspread leaves plenty of room for the Broncos to find the proverbial back-door.
This is a rivalry game, and I can tell you that Denver cannot be happy about losing both meetings last year to Kansas City, and now 3 in a row overall to the Chiefs. Last season the Broncos were routed at Arrowhead Stadium, look for them to keep things closer this time around.
Chiefs with the win, but the Broncos plus the points get the cover.
1* DENVER
Joey Juice
Boston Celtics have been winning despite their disjointed offense, and it is because their defense has been amazing.
It will take time for the starting five to gel now that it is the Kyrie show, but that is to be expected. The Celtics are flat out struggling right now when it comes to shooting the ball.
For San Antonio, this game represents the second leg of a back-to-back, and they're already looking forward to heading back West believe me. Spurs still hoping to get some stars back, Leonard and Parker still out, but hopeful for near future.
A look inside the numbers tells you all you need to know about betting this total. When the old men Spurs play on no rest the game goes under. The under is 4-1 in the Spurs’ last 5 games playing on no rest. When the Spurs play against the East Coast teams, the game always goes Under, its 4-1-1 under in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference teams. Boston cant score so all their games recently have gone under, 4-0 under in their last four games overall.
This one is going under.
2* SAN ANTONIO-BOSTON UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Utah Jazz at home over the Dallas Mavericks.
Going to lay it here on Monday with the Utah Jazz as they host the Dallas Mavericks.
It has only been a small sample size this season, but it sure looks like Dallas is not the team you want to back on the road, as the Mavs have dropped both road games this season, splitting them against the spread. They play this game off a 12-point home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Utah is off to a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread start at home this season, with their most recent win coming by double-digits as they held the Lakers to just 81 points.
Jazz are winners over the Mavs in 3 of the last 4 meetings, but Dallas has made good against the spread in the last 3 series meetings. The last 2 meetings between the teams have needed overtime to decide, but you wouldn't know that by the line the oddsmakers have posted tonight.
The big number tells me all I need to know. Lay it with Utah as they use their defense to stymie Dallas.
Jazz by double-digits as they make it 4-0 both straight up and against the spread at home.
2* UTAH
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Monday is in the NBA, where I'm playing the Toronto Raptors-Portland Trail Blazers game Over the posted number.
While the Blazers are enjoying their third consecutive home game, the Raptors are in the middle of their six-game road trip, that has already stopped in San Antonio, Oakland and Los Angeles. After losing to the Spurs and Warriors, Toronto beat the Lakers, 101-92, on Friday. With two days to unwind, I think the Raptors' offense comes to challenge Portland.
The Blazers step to the court after a 114-107 win over feisty Phoenix on Saturday, when Damian Lillard hit a 10-foot runner with 29 seconds left to push Portland out of reach. I think that shot is going to spark Lillard, who is shooting 37.9 percent (33 of 87), and 30 percent (17 of 56) over his last three games. The team averages 111 points per game, and should be ready to run with the Raptors.
Play this one high.
3* Raptors/Blazers Over
Jack Brayman
Headed to the ice for my free play tonight, as I like the new kid Vegas Golden Knights and New York Islanders to go Over the posted total. In fact, I think they could combine to score seven or eight.
Welcome to the East coast Vegas, this isn't pretty lights on the strip at T Mobile. You're headed into Brooklyn, to play at Barclays, where the ice can be a deterrent and the atmosphere is a bit odd. At times, you think you're playing in a hollow space, with so many empty seats only used for basketball.
The new scenery for the first time in eight games, after playing a seven-game homestand, might throw Vegas off the first period, and the Islanders could very well get a couple early to open a 2-0 lead. But that won't intimidate the scrappy Knights.
Vegas owns a 15-2 edge over opponents in the second period, and this is where it will make it a hockey game. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game tied 3-3 at the end of two.
Look for the Islanders and Vegas to get big games from their middle lines, and this one to go Over.
2* Golden Knights/Islanders Over
Chris Jordan
My free play is out of the NHL tonight, as I'm looking at the Western Conference showdown between the St. Louis Blues and Los Angeles Kings.
An early-season clash between two of the hottest teams in the league, I'm taking the Kings to get the best of St. Louis, based on how this team plays over three different periods.
Both run stagnant second periods, and it's the Blues who play a little better first period, slightly. But the Kings' margin for goals in the third period tells me they've been a team that can close things out. Not so much St. Louis.
The Blues are on a 5-0-1 run, and are 9-2-1 on the year. But the Kings are a stellar 9-1-1 this season, and have won their last three games - all with a suitcase in hand.
The Kings bring to end a six-game junket which saw them register wins over Columbus, Ottawa, Montreal and the Bruins, while losing 3-2 a week ago at Toronto.
Seeing how their Pacific Division rival Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Blues, I think the Kings will have that in their mental, as well, adding motivation.
Take the Kings.
1* KINGS
Bob Balfe
Broncos +7
It doesn’t really matter what the records are when two divisional rivals get together on MNF. The Broncos have been struggling on offense, but so have the Chiefs on Defense. The impressive thing for Kansas City is the lack of turnovers. This is why their defensive numbers are not really on the radar. I think we all want Kareem Hunt to be the next Marcus Allen, but his work load is heavy and only the truly special players can keep it up for the long haul of a season. I believe we will see Hunt’s numbers go down a bit in the near future. This is no a knock on him, but just reality. What is shocking is the Broncos inability to create turnovers this year. This defense is much too good to let that trend continue. Denver will get OLBShane Ray back tonight which will boost the defense and now force take double teams off other Broncos Defenders. This is going to be a slugfest and I believe it’s just too many points for a situation like this. Look for the Broncos to get their running game going and to put up enough points to keep this game close. This Broncos Defense is too good to be getting this many points.