Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Monday, October 31st, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Randall The Handle
Vikings (5-1) at Bears (1-6)
Every night has been Halloween for the Bears lately. But this has also been a haunted house for the Vikings with just three covers in past 13 trips here. Jay Cutler returns to quarterback Chicago and that is typically a good thing for the home club as Cutler is holds a 6-1 mark at Soldier Field against this division rival. One guy happy to have Cutler back is top receiver Alshon Jeffery who had averaged better than 100 yards per contest with Cutler throwing to him compared to just 63 yards per game with Brian Hoyer back there. The Vikings finally lost last week after Minnesota’s offensive line failed to protect QB Sam Bradford, resulting in a poor outing that had Bradford sacked six times, fumbling four times and tossing his first interception of the year. Hurting Vikes spotting handful of division road points on big stage is just too risky for us. TAKING: BEARS +5
Rob Vinciletti
Sacramento at Atlanta
Play: Under 201½
This game fits a solid system that has played under 22 of 29 times since 1995. We want to stay under for rested road dogs of 5 or more like the Kings if the total is 190 or more and they scored 100 or more and the home team, Atlanta in this case scored 90 or more on the road last out. These two played under in both meetings last season. Play this game under tonight.
Ben Burns
Clippers -10.5
Both teams played last night. The Clippers took care of the Jazz by an 88-75 score. The Suns fought hard but fell short (106-100) against the Warriors. Off that hard-fought loss and now in a difficult scheduling spot, I won't be surprised to see the Suns get blown out tonight. While both teams played last night, the Clippers game was "easier" and they didn't have to travel afterwards. Perhaps more importantly, they'd also had the previous two days off. On the other hand, the Suns will now be playing their third game in four nights, the fourth in six. The Clippers won by 40 the last time that these teams met here. This one could easily turn ugly, too. Consider laying the points with LA.
Jimmy Boyd
Bulls -5½
Chicago came into this season not getting a ton of love from the books, as their season win total was just 39.5, which means the books were expecting them to finish with a losing record. So, while the Bulls have opened up back-to-back impressive wins at home over Boston and Indiana, I don't think we are seeing an overreaction by the oddsmakers and there's still some great value here with them laying only 5.5-points at Brooklyn.
The Nets have surprised a lot of people by opening up the season 3-0 ATS, which includes a 9-point home win over the Pacers as a 6-point dog. I'm not buying this Brooklyn team being able to keep this up. This is also a tough spot for the Nets, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights.
The Bulls are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games with a total of 210 or more and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a home win against a division rival. Chicago is also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 with the Nets and 5-1 ATS in 6 meetings in Brooklyn.
Jack Jones
Nets +6
The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA in the early going. Their season win total of 20.5 was the lowest in Vegas, so bad things were expected of them and continue to be. But bettors willing to back them have cashed in and will continue to do so.
The Nets are 3-0 ATS in their first three games. They only lost 117-122 as 11.5-point road dogs at Boston, won 103-94 as 6-point home dogs against Indiana, and only lost 108-110 as 8-point road dogs at Miami. Now they find themselves catching 6 points here at home against the Chicago Bulls.
After starting the season 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS, I believe the Bulls are getting too much respect here. They beat the Celtics 105-99, who were on the second of a back-to-back, and the Pacers 118-101. But now the Bulls are hitting the road for the first time this season.
Chicago is 8-22 ATS when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40% over the last three seasons. The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Jim Feist
Chicago at Brooklyn
Pick: Over
The Bulls have gone out of the gate with a 2-0 schedule. Chicago has averaged 111.5 ppg in their first two while allowing an average of 100 ppg. The Nets have also showed offense, scoring 109.3 ppg in their first three games (1-2), while allowing 108.7. The Bulls totals are now 23-4 against the NBA Atlantic division. The Nets have gone over in six of their last eight (dating back to last season), while the last four meetings between these clubs have gone OVER. It's early, but the OVER is the play here today.
David Banks
Minnesota @ Chicago
Pick: Minnesota -5
It’s an NFC North matchup on Monday night that features a 1-6 Bears team in primetime for the third time in this young 2016 season. One plus for Chicago is the return of starting quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bears’ quarterback situation has been a big part of their dismal start to the season. Cutler was hurt in the second game of the season, a 29-14 loss to the Eagles, and hasn’t played since. His backup, Brian Hoyer, suffered a broken arm in last week’s loss to Green Bay, giving way to the Bears’ third quarterback, Matt Barkley.
At least the Bears will have Cutler back to hopefully generate some offense. Chicago managed just 189 yards against the Packers. The Vikings defense, even though they gave up 21 points last week, is much better than Green Bay’s. Without much of a running game – the Bears average just 87.9 yards a game – Cutler and Chicago will have a very difficult time against a tenacious Vikings defense. The Bears are dead last in the NFL in scoring averaging just 15.9 points a game. Don’t expect many offensive fireworks from Chicago.
The Vikings are coming off of their first loss of the season, a 21-10 setback at Philadelphia. The Eagles defense beat up a makeshift Vikings offensive line and got pressure on QB Sam Bradford all day long. Philadelphia sacked Bradford six times and the defense intercepted him once. The Bears haven’t generated that kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks yet this season. What Minnesota will need is for running backs Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata to have success in the run game in an effort to help Bradford and the passing game.
Chicago has lost the last three straight in this series. The Bears have not won a game against the Vikings since the 2014 season. That victory, a 21-13 win, was at Soldier Field. Maybe the Bears can borrow some of the city of Chicago’s excitement about the Cubs in the World Series on Monday night and use it to grab their second victory of the season.
Brett Atkins
Monday's free play release will be to play the total of the Nuggets-Raptors game Over the total.
Both teams have played a pair of games this young season, and the Nuggets have played Overs in both of their games thus far, while the Raptors were Over the total in their first, but did hold Under against the mighty Cavaliers their last time out.
Series numbers show a 3-0-1 Over run the last 4 times these teams have jumped ball, and overall, the Over is 6-1-1 the last 8 times the Nuggets and Raptors have faced one another.
Play the percentages, and go Over tonight in Denver-Toronto.
3* DENVER-TORONTO OVER
Bob Valentino
I find it entertaining that the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs are playing for the World Series, and in the NBA, we have a potential Eastern Conference Final to look forward to in about eight months, between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls are off to a quick 2-0 start, and on the road tonight, I think they will flex their offensive muscle against the Brooklyn Nets (1-2).
Chicago is averaging 111.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting behind the offensive game of Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 20 points and six rebounds and veteran Dwyane Wade, who is averaging 18 points and 3.5 assists.
I am diggin this new look Bulls team, that has played cohesively and looks really good, for what it's worth after just two games. If this team continues to shoot a high percentage from long-range, it could very well threaten the Cavaliers in the Central Division.
The Nets are young, and yes they've shown improvement offensively. But they can't match the Bulls toughness and consistent firepower.
Take the road favorite in this one.
1* CHICAGO
Brad Wilton
Monday comp play release is the Clippers to blowout the Suns.
I know it's early, but Phoenix appears to be one of the teams in the league that will be a door mat this season.
The Suns are off to an 0-3 start, and while they have covered in their last pair, they were on court last night in a home loss to the Golden State Warriors.
The Clippers have won and covered their first pair of games this new season, and their double-digit home win yesterday over the Jazz looked pretty good to me!
The home team has won the last 4 series meetings, and the last time Phoenix made the trip to the Staples Center, they were blasted 124-84.
The difference may not be that large tonight, but it will be large enough for the Clippers to get the win and the cover.
Lay it.
2* L.A. CLIPPERS
Chris Jordan
It's Halloween, and the difference between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers, is the boys from the desert desperately need to dress up as an NBA team, while L.A. already is one.
Okay, that was mean, but you get the point.
The Clippers are going to take full advantage of the Suns, who are still looking for their first victory of the season. Phoenix is already 0-3, and it looks terrible - especially on defense. The Suns are allowing 110.7 points per contest, and now face one of the more explosive teams in the league.
I actially think that because the Suns played the Warriors down to the wire Sunday will hurt them tonight, as they'll be deflated and tired.
The Clippers are one of six teams undefeated in the NBA, sitting at 2-0, and average 101 points per game. Tonight, at home, they could score 121 points. With the way the Clippers are playing, you have to play Los Angeles by double digits here.
5* CLIPPERS
Teddy Davis
Suns vs. Clippers
Play: Suns +10½
I'm gonna take the desperate team here tonight in the Suns who are still looking for their first win. I realize they are off a back to back vs Golden St, but the Clippers are as well and they have a bigger game looming with the Thunder coming to town on Wednesday. With the Clippers covering both their games everyone will love them again here tonight. Also DeAndre Jordan might not play tonight which is creating more value with the Suns. Suns are 13-3 ATS their last 16 games following a straight up loss.
Brandon Lee
Kings +7
Not a lot was expected of the Kings coming into this season, but I've really been impressed with how they have looked out of the gates. A lot of credit needs to be given to new head coach Dave Joerger, who is getting this team to share the ball more on offense and play a lot harder on the defensive end. Atlanta's a quality team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect here coming off two blowout wins to start the season. The Hawks beat the Wizards 114-99 in their opener, but it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Atlanta had just a 1-point lead going into the 4th quarter. They then destroyed the 76ers by 32 points on the road, but Philadelphia is awful, at least until they get Simmons back. Not only do I think Sacramento can keep it close enough to cover, but an outright win isn't out of the question.
Scott Rickenbach
Hawks -7
Even though the Kings are 2-1 on the season, the victories came against Phoenix and Minnesota and those were two of the worst teams in the league last season. Now Sacramento is beginning a 5-game road trip back east and they start off by facing an Atlanta team that has a revenge motive. That said, this is not a good set-up for the Kings as they take on a Hawks team that was held to only 88 points in their most recent match-up with the Kings which was at Sacramento in January. The Hawks are 2-0 on the season and their strong defensive effort (held Philly to 72 points Saturday) shows they are fully focused early this season even against a weaker foe. With "only" the Lakers on deck, Atlanta is not going to overlook Sacramento. The Kings have not fared well against the East in recent seasons as they are on a 23-35 ATS run in non-conference games the past two seasons. The Hawks, on the other hand, are 41-19 SU (and 35-25 ATS) in non-conference action. Also, when off of a win by 10 points or more, Atlanta has gone 40-25 ATS so there should be no let-down here and the Hawks haven't forgotten last season's loss to the Kings.