Free Picks for Monday, October 9th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
DEVILS VS. SABRES
PLAY: DEVILS +115
The likely goalie matchup here is Cory Schneider vs. Robin Lehner. That’s where my analysis begins in this clash between the Devils and Sabres. I am definitely a fan of backing dogs where I feel the goaltending favors the plus money side.
Schneider looked great in backstopping New Jersey to a win in its season opener against Colorado. It’s not a major factor for me as rosters change from one year to the next, but I sure don’t mind that Schneider has made a habit of playing well against the Sabres. His career stats against Buffalo are impressive. Schneider was not good last season, and it wasn’t all on what he had in front of him. I don’t know if this will be short term spike or not, but I expect a motivated Schneider to start the season in strong fashion, and so far, so good.
Lehner looked good in the Buffalo opener against Montreal, but followed that with a shabby performance against the Islanders. I’m not a big Lehner fan. He has always impressed me more as a solid backup but not a legit #1 goalie. I’ll also toss in that his career data against the Devils is not good at all.
Beyond that, while the Sabres are expected to be improved and perhaps capable of getting to the playoffs, they’re going to have to prove it to me. Right now, I think the Sabres might be a touch overrated. Not that I’m high on the Devils, who figure to struggle in a difficult Metro. But positive momentum off an encouraging season opener and underdog odds in this game make New Jersey the side I see as having the value tonight.
Jack Brayman
For my free play today, going to have to side with the Chicago Cubs over Washington Nationals, and I want you listing the scheduled starters. I really don't see why Max Scherzer is laying money to Jose Quintana, as the value is certainly with Chicago in this situation.
The teams split the first two in D.C., and Washington won the regular-season series, but this is the playoffs and these are the defending World Series champions.
Chicago is 3-0 in Quintana's last three starts, while the Nats are 2-1 the last three times Quintana toed the slab. For the season, Quintana is 7-3 since arriving in mid-July, from the Chicago White Sox, while the Cubs are 10-4 when he is on the hill.
And I'm not sold on Scherzer's health, as he left his last outing with a right hamstring cramp. So even though he is expected to start in Game 3 of NLDS, let's not be so sure his foundation is right for this one.
5* CUBS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Monday is the first playoff game on the card, as I like it to stay Under the posted total. It is a big number, and while these teams are going on their eighth straight meeting, after closing the regular season in Boston for a four-game set, it's about time we see a classic pitching showdown.
Morton steps to the rubber after winning his only start against Boston this season, lasting 5.1 innings while allowing two runs at Fenway Park on Sept. 29.
Meanwhile, with Porcello, we have a guy who hasn't had the same Cy Young campaign he had a year ago, but I think will help Sox fans forget his regular season with a solid start in Game 4, as the Red Sox look to tie the series.
Look for this one to stay low.
4* Astros-Red Sox Under
Joey Juice
Houston can clinch this AL Division Series in Boston tonight after taking the first two at home, and then dropping one on Sunday.
Charlie Morton will pitch for Houston, while Rick Porcello will make the start for the Red Sox as they look to stay alive. His last start against this Astros team was in Houston on June 17 and he got hit like a pinata - 7 runs on 10 hits in 6 innings of non-work as the Red Sox lost that one 7-1.
Lets face it, the Astros are hot, 24-9 in their last 33 overall and they have played exceptionally well on the road lately too, 7-2 in their last nine away games. They also play well against great teams, 7-2 in their last nine against opponents with winning records.
Pitching is always the key to the postseason, and Morton is also hot, 5-1 last six starts.
Finally the Astros own the Red Sox, they are 5-2 last seven times these two teams played. Boston, on the other hand has proven that they cannot beat strong teams lately, 2-5 last 7 vs teams with winning percentages over .600. And finally the Red Sox just don't get the money in the playoffs, 1-5 last 6 in the postseason.
Astros clinch.
1* HOUSTON
Mike Lundin
Devils vs. Sabres
Play:Sabres -126
The Buffalo Sabres are still in search of their first win of the season after a 3-2 SO loss to the Habs followed by a 6-3 defeat to the Islanders. I like the price we get on the Sabres to finally get their win here when they host the New Jersey Devils Monday night.
New Jersey opened the season with a 4-1 win against Colorado, but it took a terrific effort from Cory Schneider to lock down the win. The Devils goalie was forced to make 40 saves and they can't rely on him play like that every game.
Let's go with the still winless home team to get the job done here.
Brandon Lee
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks +105
Arizona shouldn't be a home dog to the Dodgers tonight. The Diamondbacks need to win here to extend the series and I think they do just that. Arizona has the edge on the mound here with ace Zack Greinke going up against Yu Darvish. Greinke wasn't great in the Wild Card game, but everyone is going to have a bad outing. I'll trust the 13-1 record and 3.08 ERA and 0.986 WHIP he's posted over 19 home starts this season. Darvish has been hit or miss since coming to LA and while he was sharp in his last 3 starts, it came against the Giants, Phillies and Padres. This Arizona offense is one of the best in baseball, especially at home, where they are hitting .276 as a team and scoring just under 6 runs/game. It's also worth pointing out that Greinke has faced the Dodgers twice at home and allowed just 4 runs on 8 hits in 12 2/3 innings.
Jack Jones
Houston vs. Boston
Play: Boston +112
The Boston Red Sox saved their season with a 10-3 victory over the Houston Astros in Game 3. Now they come into Game 4 with some confidence and we are getting a good value on them as home underdogs here tonight.
Rick Porcello had a rough follow-up to his Cy Young season last year, but that is understandable. He was much better in the second half of the season. He has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his past 16 starts, and 4 or fewer in 13 of those.
Charlie Morton was a nice story for the Astros this season, going 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA in 25 starts. But he was only 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA in nine road starts. Morton has only made one previous postseason start, and his second at Fenway Park will be no easy task.
The Red Sox are 11-4 in their last 15 Divisional Playoff home games. Boston is 8-3 in Porcello's last 11 starts. Houston is 1-4 in its last five Divisional Playoff road games. The Astros are 7-16 in their last 23 meetings in Boston.
Larry Ness
Washington vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -106
The set-up: The Capitals have been best-known for great regular seasons followed by early playoff exits and that was the case again last season. Tampa Bay advanced all the way to the Eastern Conference finals two years ago but last season finished 42-30-10 and with 94 points, just missed the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Caps have opened 2-0, with captain Alex Ovechkin following up a hat trick in the season opener by scoring four goals in the team's second game. The Lightning won Friday night at home 5-3 over the Panthers in their season-opener but then lost the next night in Miami, 5-4.
Evgeny Kuznetsov has seven assist in two games (he can thank Ovechkin) while fellow linemate Jakub Vrana has set up three goals. Washington may have just one power play goal but its penalty killing unit has thwarted all nine man-advantage opportunities by the opposition. As expected, goalie Braden Holtby has been solid with a 2.40 GAA with 66 saves in the first two games.
Lightning captain Steven Stamkos made his first regular-season appearance in almost 11 months this past weekend and came away with three assists in the two games. Brayden Point is off to a fast start with five points. Despite carrying eight defensemen (that means two 'sit' each game), the Lightning have allowed 84 shots on goaltender Andrei Vasilevski. He has turned aside 76 of the shots, keeping his team in both games.
The Capitals have earned at least a point in eight straight games (7-0-1) against the Lightning, outscoring them 10-4 last season. However, Washington's fast start, especially Ovechkin's, seems too much. Expect the Caps and Ovechkin to 'come back to earth' in this one. Take the home team.
Jim Feist
Capitals at Lightning
Pick: Over
Washington Capitals have jumped out of the gate fast, posting a 2-0-0 record, scoring 11 goals and allowing just five. The Caps coming of a 6-1 route of the Montreal Canadiens last Saturday. Now they travel to Tampa Bay to take on the 1-1 Lightning. The Lightning have scored nine goals, but allowed eight in their two games. The Capitals have been a very good road over team, posting a 11-5-1 O/U record in their last 17 away games. Lightning no slouch at Overs either, with seven of their last eight going over at home. The last 19 of 26 meetings between these clubs have gone over.
Wunderdog
Houston @ Boston
Pick: Under 10.5
The Boston Red Sox put an end to their five-game playoff slide by winning in comfortable fashion yesterday. In doing so, they have cut the series lead by the Astros to 2-1. They once again face elimination in Game 4 at Fenway. The total here is simply not representative of playoff baseball as just nine times have we seen a total top the 10 mark, and three of those nine were at Colorado where the balls fly in the thin air. Those nine games have seen the UNDER prevail by a 7-2 count, and it has been a decade since we have seen a playoff total reach this level. Both teams have deep and elite bullpens, and facing elimination, it will be all hands on deck for Boston. So the starters could both be on a short leash to get the best matchup at critical junctures of the game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston -1½ +129 over BOSTON
On paper, it looks/sounds pretty good for Boston. Fresh off a series-extending Game 3 victory, the Red Sox turn to reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello to even the series at 2-2. Of course, Porcello has mostly been a mess this season, going from a league-leading 22 wins last year to a league-leading 17 losses this year, along with a league-high 236 hits and 38 homers allowed in 203 innings for a 4.65 ERA and 5.42 xERA. Porcello is the Red Sox’s fourth starter because they want to avoid relying on him as much as possible, and yet here he is with the entire season on the line. Porcello’s 39%/40% groundball/fly-ball split is also a problem that isn’t likely to play well at this park against the Astronauts.
Charlie Morton was hardly Houston’s ace this season, but he did post a solid 3.65 ERA with 163 strikeouts in 147 innings, including a 2.54 ERA and 33/6 K/BB ratio in September. The last of those September starts came against Boston, as Morton tossed 5.1 innings of two-run ball at Fenway Park, whereas Porcello got rocked for seven runs in his lone 2017 start vs. Houston. Charlie Morton is also an extreme groundball pitcher (57%), which is something we’d much rather have working for us than Porcello’s fly-ball tilt. This game may simply come down to whether the 2016 or 2017 version of Porcello takes the mound, because the 2017 version stands little chance of not being lit up by the Astros’ lineup.
David Price saved the Red Sox’s bullpen (and possibly their whole season) in Game 3, working four shutout innings of relief after starter Doug Fister failed to make it out of the second inning. Craig Kimbrel has yet to appear in this series, so he’s fresh bordering on too fresh, and setup men Addison Reed (seven pitches) and Carson Smith (13) had light workloads Sunday. Lance McCullers wasn’t nearly as effective as Price in Game 3, but he did soak up three innings in relief following starter Brad Peacock’s early exit. No other Astros reliever threw more than 14 pitches in the blowout loss, so everyone else should be available. In particular, Chris Devenski figures to get a chance to bounce back from an ugly outing in short order.
A rainout might be the ideal scenario for the Red Sox, because it would allow them to possibly skip Porcello, flip back to the top of their rotation, and maybe even work Price back into the mix as a starter or long reliever. Barring mother nature taking charge of things, they’ll need another big effort from the lineup in a game where the Astros’ bats seem likely to do damage. Astronauts finish em off here.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +3½ over Minnesota
In a production meeting on Sunday night, Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer told ESPN’s broadcast crew that he anticipates Sam Bradford starting at quarterback three weeks after a knee injury first kept Bradford out against the Steelers. A second opinion on the quarterback’s left knee on September 22 confirmed the Vikings’ belief that Bradford would not need surgery on his knee,and after taking last week off to rest, Bradford participated in all three of the Vikings’ practices this week (albeit in a limited fashion). Thus, the line went from Minnesota being a -2½-point favorite to a -3½ point choice almost overnight.
The oddsmakers aren’t idiots. Think about it for a second. In the highest wagered game of the weekend slate (Monday Night Football), do you honestly think that they posted a line (-2½) based on anything but Bradford starting? They posted that -2½ in anticipation of Bradford starting and got precisely the reaction they wanted. We’re not even sure the Vikes should be favored here and now you are going to pay extra to back a shaky favorite on Monday night.
Losing Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL is a devastating blow for the Vikings offense and Cook's promising career. Suddenly the specter of 2016 repeating comes to mind. The Vikings may have no completely healthy backs to use here. There is still talent in the wideouts but suddenly there is much less for the opposing defenses to focus on. The Vikes have played one road game and they were brutal in a 26-9 oss in Pittsburgh. Last year when the Vikes were better and the Bears were worse, Minnesota lost at Soldier Field 20-10.
The Chicago Bears have been a mess for some time. John Fox has finally, in his third season, got the personnel he needs to run a 3-4 defense in Chicago, but not only did he lose linebacker Danny Trevathan for two games for a cheap shot on Davante Adams, the $45 million Mike Glennon experiment lasted just four games. At 1-3 following a second half blowout at the hands of the Packers, the Bears have decided the future is now and are turning the offense over to rookie Mitchell Trubisky. You knew this was coming sooner than later, but when your starter has been responsible for eight turnovers in four games – five interceptions and three lost fumbles – sooner became even sooner. The Bears glow from their Week 3 win over the Steelers was short lived. Last week, the Bears were buried by Green Bay 35-14 on Thursday night but that was another misleading score. The Bears have been feisty, competitive (despite the scores) and dangerous in all four of their games but all this market sees is results and records. The market is now placing far too much emphasis on Bradford coming back and the Bears starting a rookie QB that has never played a down of NFL football. We don’t play X’s and O’s, instead we play market overreactions to what the media is selling and that’s precisely the situation here. Chicago is so much improved from last year while the Vikes are not.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +120 over BUFFALO
OT included. That first win can sometimes be very illusive. The Sabres lost their opener to Montreal, 3-2. On Saturday night, they went into Brooklyn and lost 6-3 to the Islanders. Against the Isles, Robin Lehner was pulled after allowing four goals on 16 shots and therein lies one of the problems for Buffalo. We’ve said it a million times and it’s worth reiterating that goaltending is the #1 deciding factor in the outcome of games. Give us the better goaltender and we’ll take our chances 100% of the time. Robin Lehner is not only wildly inconsistent but he’s a head case too. In what was projected to be a turnaround year for the Sabres, they’ll come into this game winless and feeling some pressure. We like the Sabres but they are much more appealing in the role of the underdog.
Meanwhile, the Devils are coming off a 4-1 opening day win over the Avalanche. A win over Colorado doesn’t do much to increase their stock but we loved what we saw. Defenseman Will Butcher was a big reason that the Devils power-play scored three times. Making his NHL debut, Butcher ran one of the power-play units and assisted on all three of the team's PP goals. His puck movement and decision making were a big reason why the Devils pursued him so hard in August and it paid immediate dividends. Butcher is not the only Devils rookie that made an impact.
Nico Hischier went scoreless in the his NHL debut, but the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NHL Draft was everywhere on the ice. His speed, puck handling and poise were evident throughout, and he finished third on the team with six shots. Then there’s Jesper Bratt. It's easy to point to his one goal and one assist and call Saturday a great game for the 19-year-old, but he did plenty more. Bratt logged 4:47 of penalty killing time, trailing only Gibbons and defenseman Mirco Mueller for the team lead. He was relentless in puck pursuit during his PK time, and it helped set up his shorthanded assist in the third period. Lost in the offense and strong showing by the Devils' rookies was the play of goalie Cory Schneider, who carried over a strong preseason into a 40-save, one-goal effort. Schneider saw some Grade-A chances and remains one of the best in the game. The Devils also have some solid vets and a great outlook.
The Devils had a long 10-day layoff between their final preseason game and Saturday's opener, so it would have been natural to expect them to lose a little bit of their edge after a 5-1-1 exhibition slate. But the Devils kept their intensity up in practice, and the identity they strived to establish in the preseason seemed to carry over into the season opener. What we know for sure is that the Devils are loose, confident and had a great opener while the Sabres are feeling a bit nervous and will come into their third game of the year with inferior goaltending.
EDMONTON -1½ +184 over Winnipeg
The Oilers really need no introductions. They are 1-1 after two games with a 3-0 victory over Calgary and a 3-2 loss in Vancouver on Saturday night. It should be noted however, that the Oilers outshot Calgary 45-26 and outshot Vancouver 35-26 and out-chanced both by a wide margin too. We also like that the Oilers are coming off a loss, as there will be no complacency here. Attacking the Jets is also high on our list.
The Winnipeg Jets have a collection of high-end talent that should be winning games at a high clip. In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find this much talent all under the same roof but until they change coaches and culture, they are going to continue to get buried by high scoring teams like they did in their first two losses of the year.
We can dissect Winnipeg’s losses to Toronto and Calgary all day long but it won't change the results. The real issue here is that this team never really eradicates any one problem for very long, or ever. The Jets allow a lot of goals. That is a problem because it means there is more pressure on the offence to score more if a win is to occur. We’re only two games in but let’s look at the state of the Jets after two games and after last year’s debacle. The part of inconsistency that is often overlooked is preparation for a game. That's not just watching film or knowing the opposition, that's the easy part of preparation. A team that is prepared for playing is ready to dictate the flow and pace of the game by executing their game plan and countering the opposition's game plan. The Jets seldom apply that and remain one of the most unpepared teams in sports.
Coach Paul Maurice called it "the right time" to give Connor Hellebuyck his first start of the year. Steve Mason began Winnipeg's first two games of the season but he has a 0-2-0 record with a 6.53 GAA and an .831 save percentage. Hellebuyck saw some action in Wednesday's opener against Toronto and he allowed two goals on 11 shots. Mason was yanked in his first start. Paul Maurice has already started the revolving doors of goaltenders. He attempted that strategy last year and it blew up in his face. The Jets now have two goaltenders, just like last year, that will be playing with their confidence shot. You may remember last year that Toronto’s Frederik Andersen was torched in his first five games but Mike Babcock said, We brought him in to be our #1 goaltender and we’re going to stick with him. The Jets brought in Steve Mason to be their #1 goaltender and after two games, he has been yanked once and has lost his starting job.
Paul Maurice’s teams lack discipline and preparation. He gets some accolades for...well, not being offensively bad at his job but he is bad. He just exists. He's that thing in the back of your fridge you bought for one meal and forgot was there for months. He is the mayonnaise of NHL head coaches and the Jets need to change it up. He can’t stick to one goaltender for even five games and now he’ll throw Connor Hellebuyck into the fire in Edmonton. Again, Paul Maurice called it the “right time: but it’s actually the worst time. After losing 7-2 and 6-3 to Toronto and Calgary respectively, the Jets are in line to get whacked again.
Chip Chirimbes
Vikings vs. Bears
Play: Bears +3.5
Well, the decision has been made and No.2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky will be making his NFL debut on Monday Night football. Minnesota is looking for the return tonight of Sam Bradford but will be without rooking running back sensation Dalvin Cook who will be replaced by form all-pro Latavius Murray. The Bears will rely on running backs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard the later of which ran for 337 yards in two game against the Vikings last season. Even with Bradford's possible return the Bears will control the ball.