Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, September 11th, 2017

Dr Bob

New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings

Opinion – New Orleans (+3.5) over MINNESOTA

Minnesota enjoyed 62 points of positive turnover variance last season, which was the highest in the NFL, and the Vikings still were just 8-8 and outscored their opponents by just 20 points (would have been -42 without the turnover luck). Minnesota is a below average team and last year’s luck may have the Vikes a bit overrated heading into this season. Week 1 teams with the worse win percentage the previous year are 150-96-10 ATS since 1999 and this game applies to a 53-17-1 ATS subset of that trend. I’ll lean with the Saints +3.5.

DAVE COKIN

NEW YORK AT TAMPA BAY
PLAY: NEW YORK -125

Jake Odorizzi is off his best start of the entire season for Tampa Bay. That might be a buy sign for some, but it’s kind of the opposite for me. Consistency is not exactly Odorizzi’s forte, and I make him a decent candidate to bounce here.

CC Sabathia will take the mound for the Yankees. The big lefty has been pretty solid for the most part lately, registering three quality starts in his four most recent efforts. The one that wasn’t so good was his last one. but on balance CC is more go with than go against right now.

Tampa Bay has not fared well against lefties this season, and while the Rays are still mildly alive in the wild card chase, it’s not looking very good for them. The Yankees are still in the hunt to win the AL East, and they’ve now got a pretty good hold on getting to the playoffs via the wild card route, with a 4.5 game lead over the current first team out.

I feel as though the game being played at the home of the Mets due to hurricane issues in Florida, is at least a slight advantage to the Yankees. The price is very palatable and I’ve got the Yankees with the offensive and pitching edges. That’s enough for me and I’ll make the Pinstripes the Monday free play.

Cappers Club

Chargers vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -3

The Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers finish off the week one slate at Monday night, and with the line close the Broncos value is high.

The last two times these teams faced off in the Mile High City the Broncos won 27-19 and I suspect something like that will be the case again in this one.

The Chargers still have Phillip Rivers and they have Melvin Gordon but after that there is a lot of question marks.

The offensive line was a struggle last year, and if they can't keep Rivers upright this year, that is going to cause a lot of issues.

He will also be facing a Broncos defense that he has struggled against the last couple of years. I think the Broncos will make the most of that and use that to cover the spread.

Some trends to note. Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.

Big Al

Chicago at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -170

A total of 12 different players have gotten starts for the White Sox this season, and you may even see one or two additional before the end of September. When a team is in rebuilding mode -- and no team is in that mode more than Chicago -- there are a lot of opportunities for young (and not so young) arms to get a look in the rotation in the second half of the season. That's basically what's happened with the White Sox and tonight one of those younger pitchers hoping to stick with the club will take the hill as RH Reynaldo Lopez gets his fifth start of the season. The former Washington Nats pitcher has actually looked pretty good for the Sox, but he still walks far too many batters (four per nine innings) and that's a dangerous proposition against a team like the Royals. Veteran RHP Jason Hammel will get his 29th start for Kansas City and despite a losing record at 8-10, Hammel has been pretty good lately for his team, going 3-1 in his last four starts. KC has been producing some runs lately, scoring 11 on Sunday and 37 in their last five games. This will be Hammel's first start vs. the Sox this season, but in his lone start against them in 2016, he went seven strong innings in an 8-1 rout. The Royals are 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Jim Feist

Yankees at Rays
Pick: Over

This is a good home run park and a strong New York offense is in town. New York is 7-1 over the total on the road. C.C. Sabathia got pounded by Baltimore on the road in his last start, a 7-6 defeat. Tampa Bay is 17-7 over the total at home vs. a team with a losing road record. Starter Jake Odorizzi (4.58 ERA) has a 4.71 ERA at home and the over is 11-4 when he starts.

Brandon Lee

Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Rays +127

Tampa Bay is worth a look here in Monday's series opener against the Yankees, which is going to be played at CitiField to the hurricane. Most will see this as an advantage for the Yankees, but I look for the Rays to respond well in this spot and I like the pitching matchup. Tampa Bay will send out Jake Odorizzi, who comes in with a red-hot 3.52 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Yankees counter with veteran C.C. Sabathia, who has shown signs of wearing down and is fresh off an ugly outing at Baltimore, where he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in just 5 1/3 innings of work. It's also worth noting that New York put up a bunch of runs in yesterday's win over the Rangers, but are just 4-11 in their last 15 road games after scoring 9 or more runs.

Jack Jones

Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -131

The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners are both within 3 games of the Twins for the final wild card spot in the American League. This is a big series for both teams, and I'm going to back the home team in Game 1 with the better starting pitcher on the mound.

Cole Hamels hasn't lost at home yet this season, going 6-0 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in nine starts. He'll be opposed by Ariel Miranda, who is 5-3 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in 15 road starts this year. Miranda gave up 5 runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 1-5 loss at Texas on August 2nd in his last start against the Rangers.

The Rangers are 46-18 in Hamels' last 64 starts, including 25-6 in his last 31 home starts. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last five road games. Texas is 4-1 in Hamels' last five home starts vs. Seattle. The Mariners are 3-9 in their last 12 meetings in Texas.

Micah Roberts

Saints at Vikings
Play: Saints

I like both of these teams to have better success than last year, but what stands out most of all to me is how competitive New Orleans was on the road last season. They were underrated all year but went 11-5 ATS. The road success thing has been an on-going matter as they've gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 away. For whatever its worth, Minnesota has gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine MNF games. The top play here is the Saints taking the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA -3 over New Orleans

Their uniforms are ugly. The quarterback isn't much to look at and you know what they say about the weather in Minneapolis, but while they don't look sexy on paper or in person, the Vikings appear to be a decent pick in Week 1. We'll limit our expectations for this team to a week to week basis, as we are not nearly as bullish as some on their status as a Super Bowl sleeper. Their backfield has gone over a major overhaul with the departure of Adrian Peterson, the one-time face of the franchise. He's been replaced by former Raider Latavius Murray but all eyes will be on rookie runner Dalvin Cook, the Florida State standout from a season ago. The strength of this team will again be a defense that finished in the top-10 in DOVA in 2016. It's a unit made up of players that are either in their prime or are going to be soon. The only elder statesman is Terrance Newman, who is still contributing at 39. A great defense can still create misery for the best offenses in today's NFL and the Vikings will have a chance to prove that here.

Minnesota is typically fast out of the gate before their annual drop-off in November. That’s a good trait to begin with but that’s even close to being the main reason for this choice. We’re always looking for other reasons to get behind a team and Adrian Peterson provided us another one here to fade the Saints. Peterson, who is now a Saint, couldn’t help himself, when he claimed that he can’t wait to “stick it to the Vikings”. Firing up a superior opponent by opening up your cake-hole is about the worst thing a player can do. That’s locker room material right there.

At this point, you know what you're getting with the Saints. A high powered offense that typically plays better indoors at the Super Dome and they generally struggle on the road. The Saints have followed that same formula for nearly all of the Sean Payton, Dree Bree era. Sporting a top rated offense but unable to stop anybody when it matters, New Orleans has to play near flawless football if the other team doesn’t make foolish mistakes. Since 2014, only one team with a top five offense has missed the playoffs and that was the Saints. Not much is likely to change, as New Orleans will send out one of the youngest secondaries in the league with an average age of just 23 years. Covering a division full of elite receivers is a lot to ask of a young and unproven group. Another thing working against the Saints' defensive backs is the team's increased commitment to blitz which began last season. In 2015 New Orleans sent five or more pass rushers just 26.8% of the time but that number was way up last season at 41.6%. The Saints have tried everything to improve their defense over the years but it hasn't worked yet. That change in blitzing schemes moved them from last in the league in yards per pass allowed in 2015 (7.9) to 23rd (7.3) last year, a marginal improvement at best. This D-unit was also very fortunate in 2016 after recovering 12 out of 15 opposing teams fumbles but as we've discussed before, turnovers are not a skill based stat and the pendulum can come swinging back the other way just as hard. We can understand that taking points with the high powered New Orleans offense might be appealing but this isn't fantasy football. New Until we see otherwise, we must play the Saints for what we know they are and that's a team that is beatable on its best day and that doesn't typically play its best football on the road.

San Diego +130 over DENVER

18 months removed from celebrating a Super Bowl championship, our assessment on the Broncos is dark (compared to most other sites) and reflects a conceivably grim reality for this franchise. In fact, if the juice wasn’t so high, we would’ve bet the Broncs to go under the posted total of 8½ faster than fantasy players were picking up Kareem Hunt. Some early injury issues have the potential to further push this recently elite operation toward the league’s lower middle class.

Most of Denver’s defensive line suffered injuries during the preseason, and the team’s best facet — the Von Miller-fronted pass-rush crew — is suddenly vulnerable. Miller’s high-end sidekicks are depleted. Shaq Barrett is set but he missed months with a mysterious hip injury. This group being compromised could limit the effectiveness of the Broncos defense, and given how much will be asked of that unit again this season, that would begin a domino effect to mediocrity. Seems a lot will be placed on the offensive line and ground game, with the former comprised of another new group with questions and the latter consisting almost entirely of injury-prone cogs. All of the issues would qualify as additional concerns if this veteran-led operation had an answer at quarterback but they don’t. The signing of Brock Osweiler as backup is the Broncos warning us that their QB situation is not good. The Broncos might have the best receiving tandem in the AFC West but they have the worst quarterback. Marcus Siemian led the Broncos to eight wins last season, which may inspire hope, but here’s the important thing. Just one of those victories came against a playoff team that had its starting quarterback healthy and ironically, that lone victory came against the Houston Texans with the now-departed Brock Osweiler starting. There’s a reason seventh-round picks don’t typically commandeer starting quarterback jobs and through little fault of his own, Siemian could be at the forefront of the Broncos’ steady descent. A lack of a viable alternative thrust Siemian, who would be a backup for most teams, into a difficult spot, making the Broncos a team you do not want to spot spots with against quality opposition like the one they’ll face here.

We’d be playing the Chargers over their posted win total but we don’t play overs in football because every over bet is vulnerable to injuries. If we did play overs, this one would’ve been at the top of our list. The numbers for the Chargers were onto something last season. The one notable exception was their won/loss record, as they seemed likely to vault forward after a 4-12 season in 2015 in which they went 3-8 in one-score games.

While the 2016 Chargers did improve by one win, nobody could argue that they looked better in those close contests. San Diego was an incredible 1-8 in games decided by one touchdown or less. It's one thing for the Chargers to blow a league-high five games they led at halftime. It's another to give away four games in which they either led or were in a tie game with the ball at the two-minute warning. Some of these losses blend together, but it's worth reiterating how many ways the Chargers blew games last season:

In Week 1, they lost to the Chiefs after going up 27-10 with 13 minutes to go, aided by a 17-yard punt inside the two-minute warning that set up the Chiefs with excellent field position.

Two weeks later, the Chargers had a two-point lead against a Colts team facing fourth-and-7 on its own 20-yard line. They allowed a conversion and a 63-yard touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton three plays later.

The next week, San Diego was up 13 points on the Saints with the ball and 6:50 to go. The Chargers fumbled away the ball on each of their next two plays from scrimmage, setting up the Saints for two short touchdowns.

A week later, the Chargers were stuffed on third-and-2, down three points with 3:05 to go. Punter Drew Kaser subsequently muffed the hold on the ensuing 36-yard field goal attempt, costing the Chargers a shot at tying the game. Three weeks later, the Chargers couldn't punch the ball in with four chances from the 2-yard line down eight late against the Broncos.

With 1:13 left in a tie game against the Dolphins, the Chargers needed a few more yards to advance from the Miami 42-yard line and set up a game-winning field goal attempt. Philip Rivers threw a slant under duress to Kiko Alonso, who took it to the house for a game-winning Miami touchdown.

Josh Lambo missed a 45-yard field goal that would have sent the Chargers to overtime against the Browns. Check that again: They lost to the Browns.

That's an unreal string of brutal losses, with three in the first month of the season alone. There was a decent team here. Four of their five wins came against teams with winning records, including a 33-30 victory over the Falcons in Atlanta. The Chargers are 4-16 (.200) in one-score games over the past two seasons. That’s a ringing endorsement that the Chargers are very likely to be much better this year because they’re good and because luck evens out over time. No organization since 1989 has lost more one-score games over a two-year span than the 2015-16 Chargers but the good news is that teams’ who were bad at this got better. The 29 teams who lost 12 or more one-win games over a two-year stretch were a combined 154-423 (.267) during their period in the wilderness. The following year, those same teams posted a winning record in close games, going 123-113 (.521) and they improved their overall win-loss record by an average of 3.2 wins. Perhaps most notably is that the Chargers have more talent than any of those teams, thus, they’re in line for a dramatic win increase.

The Chargers are in a much better place in terms of personnel too. For one, they won't be without star pass-rusher Joey Bosa for the first four games of the season. By the time Bosa made his debut, injuries had sapped the Chargers of several key contributors. Pro Bowl cornerback Jason Verrett went down for the season after four games, while fellow starting corner Brandon Flowers missed 10 games with a pair of concussions. The receiving corps was even further picked apart. Stevie Johnson hit injured reserve with a torn meniscus before the season even began. Star wideout Keenan Allen tore his ACL during the first half of Week 1. Receiving back Danny Woodhead suffered his own season-ending knee injury the following week. Philip Rivers was throwing to afterthoughts like Dontrelle Inman, Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry for most of the season. Flowers, Johnson and Woodhead are gone but Verrett and Allen are ready to go here. Furthermore, the Chargers look awful deep at several critical positions and if you give Rivers time and some talented playmakers, he instantly becomes one of the NFL’s best. Simply put, the Chargers are too good to keep losing games and getting off to a good start is absolutely on the table here against an inferior opponent. Chargers outright get this call.

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +101 over TORONTO

Ubaldo Jimenez has been a fade target of ours for a few years now but for whatever reason, he absolutely shines when facing the Blue Jays. Current Toronto batters have hit a mere .216 against Jimenez in 305 combined AB’s (that’s over 100 innings) with a horrible .693 OPS. The Jays continue to make a lot of weak pitchers look good and even had their hands full with the free-falling Tigers this past weekend. The Jays are not in a good place right now and this is not a good matchup for them.

It’s always good to be known for something. Marco Estrada’s known for generating pop-ups and fly-balls, making his high fly-ball rate not seem like much of a problem. That seemed to work for him in his first 11 starts, when he posted a 3.14 ERA but he’s fallen apart since then, with a 6.85 ERA in his last 18 starts. Other than a few more walks and a few more strikeouts, 2017 looks like a carbon copy of 2016 with the only difference being luck. The main difference between 2016 and 2017 is Estrada’s BABIP and strand rate, both of which are luck-driven stats. Those extra runners didn’t come around to score last year but this year they are and that is the absolute only difference between the two seasons, one of which looks great and one of which looks awful. When you bet on or against Marco Estrada, luck, whether it’s good or bad, will play a massive role in the outcome of the game and while Jimenez is in the same boat, Baltimore is in better form than Toronto, they have a superior ‘pen and they’re not the team spotting a tag.

Scott Rickenbach

Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -1½

The Brewers, despite some recent slumps at the plate, have remained alive in the divisional race and certainly still have playoff hopes. While it may seem "uncomfortable" laying the -1.5 runs consider Milwaukee's general lack of scoring, note that they have scored well in recent match-ups with left-handed starters. This should come as no surprise as they do rank 6th in the National League for batting average versus southpaw pitching. Their last two games against a left-handed starter Milwaukee won by a combined margin of 16 runs and they pounded out 25 hits in the two games. The Brewers should have no trouble with the offerings of Pittsburgh's Steven Brault. The southpaw has a 5.40 ERA in his two career starts at Milwaukee. Also, in his first start this year he was fortunate that he allowed only 3 earned runs in 5 innings as he did give up 8 hits and 2 walks while recording 0 strikeouts. The Brewers will have Brandon Woodruff on the mound in this one and he has a stellar 1.52 ERA in his 4 starts this season plus this is his first ever start against the Pirates so that is an edge for him over Pittsburgh sticks that are not familiar with facing him. The Brewers have won 3 straight and all 3 victories came by at least 2 runs. The Pirates are 7-12 in their last 19 games and 10 of the 12 losses have come by 2 runs or more.

John Martin

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Over 9

We have two potent offenses here in a hitter's ballpark with a total of just 9 in this game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies. These are two teams capable of scoring 9 runs on their own, and the likely candidate today would be the Diamondbacks. Kyle Freeland is 5-3 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 road starts this year. He's 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Zack Greinke is having a very good year, but he hasn't exactly shut down the Rockies, going 9-5 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 23 previous starts against them. He has allowed a total of 7 homers in his last five starts against Colorado. The OVER is 6-0 in Rockies last six games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last seven home games.

Dave Price

Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Orioles +101

The Baltimore Orioles at 71-72 are still alive in the wild card chase, just 3 games back of the Twins. The Blue Jays have been out of it for a week or so now and are 66-77 on the year. The Orioles clearly have the edge in motivation today and should not be dogs to the Blue Jays. Ubaldo Jimenez is 8-5 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 17 lifetime starts vs. Toronto. In his last two starts against the Blue Jays, Jimenez has gone 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA while pitching 14 2/3 shutout innings.

Jimmy Boyd

Saints vs. Vikings
Play: Under 48

A lot of people just instantly look to take the OVER in any game that involves the Saints. However, historically Drew Bree’s and Sean Payton’s offense hasn’t been as lethal on the road. Another big part of that is they have had no choice but to try and outscore teams with how bad their defense has been.

I really thought New Orleans was going to take a bigger step forward than they did on the defensive side of the ball last year. While the numbers weren’t great, I saw a lot of good things in the first year under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. This could be the year they breakout. The addition of 1st round pick Marshon Lattimore at corner should help improve a secondary that ranked dead last against the pass.

You also have to factor in that the Vikings aren’t a team that figures to be an offensive juggernaut. They ranked just 28th with 315.1 ypg and 23rd in scoring at 20.4. They were also in the bottom half of the league in 3rd down conversions. They should be better now that Bradford has had time to really learn the offense. Plus they improved the offensive line. Still, Zimmer is more of a ball control guy that wants to keep his defense fresh.

Hard to blame him given how well his stop units have played both here and previous when he was the defensive coordinator with the Bengals. Minnesota suffered all kinds of injuries on this side of the ball last year and still finished 3rd in yards allowed (314.9 ypg) and 6th in scoring (19.2 ppg). You can bet he’ll have his unit fired up for this one. Let’s also not forget they get a shot at going against their former star in Adrian Peterson.

I have a hard time seeing the Saints changing up their offense, but maybe they want to control the ball a little more. Why else would you bring in a guy like AP, who needs his touches to be effective and isn’t a huge threat in the passing game.

As you can see, I think defense will be the story line in this one. UNDER is an impressive 17-5 in all Vikings games in the 1st half of the season since Zimmer took over and 17-5 in Minnesota’s last 22 home games in the first two weeks of the season.