Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Monday, September 12th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
PIRATES VS. PHILLIES
PLAY: PHILLIES +125
Gerrit Cole returns to action tonight for the Pirates following a stint on the DL with elbow issues. This has not been a season to remember fondly for the Pittsburgh righty. He’s had trouble staying healthy and while his numbers are by no means awful, I think it’s fair to say Cole has been a disappointment.
As for the Pirates, they’ve been a disaster pretty much since the team’s upper management told the players they didn’t care about winning at the trade deadline. There was a brief glimmer of hope when the Bucs scored a sweep at San Francisco and played well at Los Angeles against the Dodgers. But that was a mirage, and the standing tell the story with this team now. The Pirates are now four games below .500 and the season probably cannot end soon enough for the players.
The Phillies aren’t exactly setting the world on fire and Jeremy Hellickson, tonight’s starting pitcher, has hit the skids lately. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hellickson let down a bit at the trade deadline, as he was widely speculated to be on his way to a contender and instead never got moved. Whether or not that’s an accurate guess is unknown, but the bottom line is the righty has not been sharp lately.
If it sounds like I don’t really like either starting pitcher to much extent here, that’s very much the case. But what I do like is the potential value in the betting line. The Pirates aren’t playing even remotely well enough to be justified as this much chalk on the road from this vantage point. In a true play out the string type of matchup, I’d rather have the side that is at least displaying a little more interest, and from where I sit that’s the host entry. I’ll side with the Phillies as home dogs.
Sleepyj
SF Giants -1.5 -105
Here come the Giants....Now winners of 3 in a row and the tide has turned for them the last few games...It was only a matter of time before they started playing well again...Padres send out Clemens who has a 5.44 ERA...Clemems isn't very good and he could get bounced around here on the road...Giants haven't had a look at him yet, but tagging him for 3 or 4 runs seems doable...He doesn't go deep usually because he finds himself in all kinds of jams...He can walk guys and that has been an issue along with low strikeout games..Giants bats have been hitting as they have now scored a total of 23 runs the last three games..I don;t trust the Padres bullpen either...Those of you that know me well know I don;t back Samardzija late in the season..I'll go against myself here though....He has his late season struggles back in late July for sure..That's just his MO...He looks dialed in here though right now...The Giants need him to be..That's why he is here in SF...His last 6 starts have been very good and his strikeouts have been rather high..He has only given up 1 HR and has been limiting hits...If you watched him pitch the last 6 starts, you will notice he has found a few new things..He has been able to locate his pitches and has been using one that got away from him for a long time..It has really helped him battle down the stretch...I think he pitches well here and the Padres bats have been rather dull...High line to back Samardzija, but the RL offers the best value in this game..I'll go with it.
Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota at Detroit
Play: Detroit -154
Detroit has won 10 of the 12 meetings with Minnesota this year and tonight they qualify in a solid league wide system that is 50-15. We are playing on home favorites off a home favored loss, vs an opponent like,the Twins that arrive off a home dog loss. Very simple and effective. The Twins are 19-43 vs Division teams and 0-4 on the road off a home loss where they scored 2 or less runs.. D. Norris for Detroit is 2-0 with a 2.70 Era vs the Twins and Santana has lost 10 of his 13 night starts. Look for Detroit to take the opener.
Don Anthony
Steelers vs. Redskins
Play: Steelers -143
Most of my long-term guys know this but I am a Washington Redskins fan. I will actually be going to this game at the “Most expensive place in the NFL to watch a Football game” Fed Ex Field. This team has zero home field advantage. Almost the entire upper deck is gone now and it just looks like a building that hasn’t finished construction. To make matters worse is that there are always a ton of visiting team fans that go to these games. We already know the Steelers have the best traveling fans in the NFL but they really flock to DC. There are a TON of folks from Pennsylvania that come to the District for work. They go to every Penguins, Steelers, and Pirates game they can. I went to the last MNF game these two teams played at Fed Ex and I thought the game was at Heinz Field with all the terrible towels flying. The Steelers won that game 23-6. I expect a similar result Monday.
The Redskins didn’t win a game against a team with a winning record all season last year. They went just 1-8 if they trailed by more than 4 during any game last season and went 1-8 when they had a lead of less than 6, were tied, or trailing at the half. Washington has also covered just 1 time in their last 5 Monday Night Football games. Big Ben should have a field day against the Redskins, picking apart the zone coverage the Skins love to play. He led the NFL in passing yards per game last season and he should easily throw for 300+ here. I also think the OVER is a great play and personally will be teasing it down to 43.
Ray Monohan
Los Angeles Rams -2.5
The era officially reopens for football back in Los Angeles as the Rams head into San Francisco on Monday night.
Los Angeles holds value here for a few reasons.
They are certainly going to want to get this new era underway with style. Head coach Jeff Fisher is certainly on the hot seat and getting this season off with a win against a weaker opponent is extremely vital.
The 49ers don't have much to work with offensively. They will start Blaine Gabbert, who doesn't have anything dynamic, nor overpowering about him. The Rams will put a lot of pressure on him and cause a lot of havoc here.
Some trends to note. 49ers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games on grass. 49ers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC West. This is a nice fade spot on the 49ers.
They have plenty of distractions and are very weak on both sides of the ball. Look for the Rams to take advantage of that.
Matt Josephs
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rays +1½
The Rays begin a series in Toronto against the Jays. Francisco Liriano is back on the mound after coming out of the bullpen. The southpaw is 7-12 with a 5.21 ERA in 25 starts between Pittsburgh and Toronto. Liriano's last start was August 26th so who knows how deep he'll be able to go. Tampa Bay is hitting .319 in six games in Toronto this season winning four of them. The Jays bullpen has been a bit of an issue at times with 27 losses and 16 blown saves. Jake Odorizzi is 4-2 in 13 road starts for TB. He has beaten Toronto in one of his two starts there giving up six runs and 10 hits in just over 10 innings against them. Toronto's offense is scuffling a bit as of late and hard to trust. I think there is some runline value with the road team with an uncertain starter on the mound for the Jays.
Mike Lundin
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Under 9
The Los Angeles Angels will host the Seattle Mariners Monday night, and I think we'll see a low-scoring contest between the two AL West foes.
Ricky Nolasco (5-13, 4.90) takes the ball for the Halos. He's coming off back-to-back quality starts with just a total of three runs allowed through 16 innings of work. The 33 year old right-hander has posted a 3.97 ERA in a pair of meetings with Seattle on the season. Each of Nolasco's last six starts have gone under the total.
The Mariners turn to left-hander Ariel Miranda (3-1, 4.79 ERA) who held the Rangers to three unearned runs and three hits over six-plus innings his last time out. The 27-year-old is 1-0 with a 5.73 ERA in two career starts against the Angels, but he Halos have struggled to produce run lately, scoring just a total of 12 through their last five games.
Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings at Angel Stadium of Anaheim and the under is 4-1 in Angels last five overall.
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
The Rangers and Astros open a three-game series in Houston on Monday with Texas 9 1/2 games ahead of Houston in the AL West. The Astros only have 19 games left to their season, so even a three-game sweep would leave them 6 1/2 games back with just 16 games remaining. Houston’s only plausible hope of playing baseball past October 2 is by earning a wild card berth. However, it’s a VERY crowded field. The Blue Jays and Orioles are both 78-64 and currently hold down the two wild card spots. Houston is one of FIVE teams within four games of those two, sitting 3 1/2 games behind AL wild-card co-leaders Toronto and Baltimore.
The Rangers are 13-3 against the Astros this season and their magic number to clinch the division is 10. Martin Perez (10-10, 4.25 ERA) will start Monday for the Rangers and he’s 5-3 with a 2.45 ERA over eight career starts against the Astros. His opposite number is Doug Fister (12-11, 4.14 ERA), who owns career-long woes against the Rangers. Fister is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA in four starts against the Rangers this season and 6-6 with a 4.95 ERA over 15 career starts against them (teams are 6-9). Fister comes in off three consecutive losses, posting a 10.95 ERA while allowing 26 hits and five walks over just 12.1 innings.
However, it’s impossible to ignore Perez’s home/away dichotomy here in 2016. The lefty is 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA at home but 2-8 with a 6.00 ERA on the road. The Astros are due (OVERDUE) to win a game or two vs the Rangers. That’s the bet here.
Scott Spreitzer
Pirates at Phillies
Pick: Pirates
Both teams are on three-game losing streaks, however, Pittsburgh still has a remote chance of a wild card spot while Philadelphia's young team has run out of gas. Gerrit Cole will make his first start since Aug. 24 after going on the disabled list due to elbow inflammation. This looks like the right opponent for Cole's return as he allowed one run in six innings against the Phillies this season and he had a 2.08 ERA against them last year in 13 innings pitched. Jeremy Hellickson appears to be a tired pitcher as the Phillies have lost his last three starts by a combined score of 26-5 and he has given up 13 runs, 12 earned and 21 hits in 16 innings. The Pirates have won five of the last six meetings and they actually have been better on the road than at home winning eight of their last 11 away from home. Philly has lost seven straight home games.
Jim Feist
Rangers at Astros
Pick: Over
The Rangers took two of three from the Angels over the weekend, losing the final game, 3-2. With a comfortable lead in the AL West, the Rangers can concentrate on the postseason. Martin Perez toes the rubber tonight for the Rangers, with a 10-10 record and 4.25 ERA. Perez has been inconsistent, throwing two quality starts after allowing 12 runs over 11.2 innings. The Rangers offense is top 5 in baseball in runs, Batting average and Slugging. Houston trails their intra-state rivals by 9.5 games. The Astros really have their eye on the Wildcard, as they trail by 3.5 games. It's been a tough stretch for the Astros, playing their last 10 games against 1st place teams. That streak continue tonight as they host the Rangers. These teams met in early September, with the Rangers taking two of three and each game totaling more than 13 runs.
Mark Franco
Steelers – 3
Following their surprise run to the NFC East title in 2015, expectations are heightened for the Washington Redskins as they prepare to host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night in the season opener for both teams. Washington is looking to build upon its closing run a year ago, when it finished the regular season with four consecutive victories.
Once renowned for its Steel Curtain defense, Pittsburgh has evolved into an offensive juggernaut, with Roethlisberger leading the league with an average of 328.2 yards per game last season and Brown hauling in a mind-boggling 375 receptions and 31 touchdown catches in the past three years. Look for them to continue to have success here on Monday night.
One knock against Washington last season, aside from being the only team to finish above .500 in its division, was not beating one opponent with a winning record.
Pittsburgh's 41 wins on Kickoff Weekend are the most by any AFC team.
Randall The Handle
Steelers (0-0) at Redskins (0-0)
Defence usually trumps offence and, while you can’t simply apply that theory to every game, it fits well here. Firstly, we have a home underdog under the lights of Monday prime-time game. Secondly, the Steelers are without star running back Le’Veon Bell and receiver Martavis Bryant, both suspended. That allows for Washington’s off-season acquisition Josh Norman to blanket WR Antonio Brown all night. Lastly, Pittsburgh’s secondary is young, inexperienced and lacks playmakers. This unit is a work in progress as Steelers allowed the third-most passing yards in the league last season. That should suit Washington QB Kirk Cousins just fine with his arsenal of fine ball catchers. Cousins has won five straight as a home underdog. TAKING: REDSKINS +3
Rams (0-0) at 49ers (0-0)
People on the east coast will be glad they are asleep when this one finally ends. Blaine Gabbert beat out Colin Kaepernick for the starting quarterback job in San Fran. Gabbert has won eight of 35 starts. The Rams, with their own abysmal quarterback situation, have been favoured three times in five years when travelling and managed one cover during those trips. Points will be at a premium with two teams whose offences averaged under 18 points per game. That makes it very difficult to give away points, no matter how few. Niners were horrible last year, but you may remember a similar opener when a decent Minnesota squad was same 2½ points in here before leaving at tail end of 20-3 loss. TAKING: 49ERS +2½
Wunderdog
Chicago @ St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis +134
Chicago is way ahead in the division with little to prove. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is great at home, but his ERA almost triples on the road (3.09 ERA) where he's walked 27 batters in 75+ innings (as opposed to 14 walks in 89+ innings at home). Hendricks is also 0-2 in six career starts against St. Louis. He faces a St. Louis offense that is outstanding at sixth in baseball in runs scored, #11 in on-base percentage, and fourth in slugging. The Cardinals go with veteran Mike Leake, who is 9-3 in 21 career starts against the Cubs. The Cardinals remain in the thick of the NL Wild Card race as they sit one-half game behind the New York Mets for the second spot. St. Louis is 7-6 in the season series against the Cubs, plus 17-5 when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game, so back the motivated and talented home dog.
James Manos
Rams at 49ers
Play: 49ers +3
How quickly people forget how the same lowly 49'ers played as a home dog on opening night last season. This 49'ers squad is better than that one and have a much better coach in new HC Kelly. Rams relocated in the offseason have a weak starting QB and have struggled as faves under HC Fisher. The Rams defensive line is a concern to San Fran but this should be a lower scoring game, making the points even more valuable. No reason to think that San Fran can't win this game outright.