David Banks
Pittsburgh @ Washington
Pick: Washington +3
The Steelers begin their quest to recapture the AFC North Division title with a trip to the nation’s capital to take on the Redskins, which surprisingly won the NFC East last season. Washington wants to prove that its 9-7 record from a year ago was no fluke. Quarterback Kirk Cousins enjoyed his best season as a pro and emerged as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Cousins completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 4,166 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2015.
Cousins would also like to prove that Washington is capable of beating some of the NFL’s best. The Steelers have been to the postseason in 16 of the past 24 seasons and they don’t play Washington very often. The last time the two teams met at FedEx stadium was in 2008. That was on Monday Night Football and the Redskins were clearly outplayed in a 23-6 loss to the Steelers. In fact, the Redskins haven’t beaten Pittsburgh in the past five meetings between the two teams.
Washington cornerback Josh Norman, the NFL’s highest-paid at his position, will face the insurmountable task of taking on wide receiver Antonio Brown. Brown tied for the NFL lead in receptions with 136 and is viewed by many as the league’s best. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed a career-high 68 percent of his passes last season for 3,938 yards and 21 touchdowns. He did miss five games because of injury. Healthy, Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing game is difficult to slow down.
The Steelers defense is also well known for its ability to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Pittsburgh was not as good against the pass as they were under legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, but they were fifth in the NFL against the run and 11th in scoring defense yielding 19.9 points per game.
Brandon Lee
Cubs/Cardinals Under 8
I expect this one to have a bit of a playoff type atmosphere, as the Cubs are trying to clinch the NL Central and the Cardinals want to make sure that doesn't happen on their home field. More than anything, I love the pitching matchup here and look for both teams to struggle offensively. Chicago sends out Kyle Hendricks, who shockingly continues to be undervalued despite his 2.04 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in 26 starts. Hendricks has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last couple months and has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in 19 straight starts, 17 of those he's allowed 2 or less. Cardinals counter with Mike Leake, who comes in with a solid 3.12 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 3.24 ERA in 21 career starts against the Cubs. UNDER is 23-9 in Hendrick's last 32 starts in a night game and 21-8 in the Cardinals last 29 home games after a loss by 2 runs or less.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Brewers +107
The Milwaukee Brewers are showing great value as road underdogs to the lowly Cincinnati Reds Monday. They have the clear advantage on the mound in this one and should not be underdogs because of it.
Wily Peralta has pitched very well here down the stretch, going 2-2 with a 3.35 ERA in his last six starts since returning from nearly two months at Triple-A Colorado Springs. Milwaukee's starting pitchers have a 2.83 ERA in the last 20 games. Peralta is 5-4 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in 12 career starts against Cincinnati as well.
Keyvius Sampson hasn't made much success at all in his two seasons in the big leagues. He is 2-7 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.689 WHIP in 13 starts and 15 relief appearances. Two of those starts have come against Milwaukee, where Sampson has gone 0-1 with a 10.79 ERA and 2.549 WHIP while allowing 8 earned runs and 17 base runners over 6 2/3 innings.
The Reds are 1-6 in Sampson's last seven starts. Cincinnati is 0-4 in its last four home games. The Reds are 0-5 in their last five Monday games. The Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. Milwaukee is 5-1 in Peralta's last six starts vs. Reds.
Jimmy Boyd
Twins/Tigers Under 9
I really like the value here on the total in Monday's AL Central matchup between the Twins and Tigers. Both of these teams struggled to get their offense going in their weekend series and I look for that to continue here with two quality starters facing off.
Detroit will send out Daniel Norris, who has a strong 1.154 WHIP over his last 3 starts and while he doesn't go deep in games, he has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in a single start this season. He was especially good in his lone outing against the Twins, allowing just 2 runs on 6 hits with 0 walks in 6 1/3 innings, giving him a 2.70 ERA in two career starts against them. Minnesota counters with veteran Ervin Santana, who is coming off a strong outing against the Royals, where he allowed just 3 hits in 6 innings. Santana has pitched his best on the road, where he's got a 3.42 ERA in 12 starts. He's also 9-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Tigers.
UNDER is 29-13 in the Twins last 42 road games after scoring 2 runs or less, 12-3-1 in Santana's last 16 starts during game 1 of a series and 7-1-1 in his last 8 starts on 5 days of rest. UNDER is also 12-2-2 in the Tigers last 16 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers -139
After losing 4 of their 5 games, the Detroit Tigers are now 2 games back in the wild card race. Fortunately they have a great shot at getting back on track now with a home series against the Minnesota Twins, who have the worst record in baseball at 53-90. Daniel Norris has pitched well for the Tigers this season, going 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in 9 starts. Norris has never lost to the Twins, going 1-0 (2-0 money line) with a 2.70 ERA and 0.700 WHIP in two starts. The Twins are 7-24 in their last 31 overall. Minnesota is 1-10 in its last 11 road games. The Twins are 8-19 in Ervin Santana's last 27 starts. The Tigers are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA -111 over Miami
Andrew Cashner suffered through a rough August with a 5.18 xERA to go along with his horrible control. His inability to find the zone early (53% first-pitch strike) continued to hurt his numbers. Cashner and the Marlins are getting way too much credit here because the market shies away from betting Atlanta but this is a case where the chalk is much undervalued. Over the past six weeks, Atlanta is a top-10 offense. Andrew Cashner has a 6.89 ERA in his past 11 road games and he’s walked 19 batters over his past 25 frames. A sure sign of fatigue is a loss of control and right now Cashner is running on fumes.
Regular readers of this space are quite aware of our keenness for Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz was a +210 pooch in his last start in Washington and left with a 3-1 lead in the seventh before the Braves pen let us down. That’s not going to deter us from coming right back on this future ace. Mike Foltynewicz continues to turn his good raw stuff into skills. In spite of a 4.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, Foltynewicz has posted an impressive collection of skills that include nearly a strikeout per inning and an increasing groundball rate that has improved 2% every month for the past four months. His struck out eight Nationals in six innings in his last start. Even more impressive was his 14.1% swing and miss rate. In addition to his mid-90s fastball that has been highly regarded by scouts, Foltynewicz is getting a 10%+ swing and miss rate on four additional pitches. Folty and the Braves are being offered at a bargain basement price against Cashner and it thus becomes a rare value play on a favorite.
Tampa Bay +156 over TORONTO
We’re not going to discuss Jake Odorizzi much because this wager has little to do with backing him. Just note that Odorizzi is very serviceable with a 3.66 ERA and a BB/K split of 50/148 in 166 innings. Also note that the Rays are a big pest that nobody wants to face and can compete with every team in MLB.
The Blue Jays continue to come in overpriced daily, especially when they are at home. Thus, we see no reason to ease up on fading them, as they continue to get untimely hitting and pitching. Toronto has now lost seven of nine. Its two wins over that span came five days apart and one of them was against these Rays in a game they trailed 3-1 in the eighth inning. The other win came on Saturday with the winning run scoring on an Aaron Hill error. We could easily be talking about a nine-game losing streak and now the Jays will send out Francisco Liriano to try and right this ship.
Liriano is coming off back-to-back relief appearances in which he was tagged for three runs combined after facing 10 hitters combined. In his last start, Liriano threw 102 pitches in five innings. In the six games that he’s appeared in since arriving here, Toronto has lost four of them. Liriano has the potential to throw a great game but he’s also a big risk because he does not pitch deep into games anymore because he pitches deep into counts as well. Liriano has walked 79 batters in 138 innings for the highest walk rate in the majors among starters. Pitching for a team that is on the verge of choking, spotting a price like this with an erratic Liriano on the mound is a bad gamble that should not be made, regardless of outcome.
PHILADELPHIA +124 over Pittsburgh
The choice here is an easy one for us. On one hand we have the Pirates, a team that checked out mentally about two weeks ago and that has dropped 11 of their past 13 games. Collectively, the Pirates cannot wait for this season to end and most of them will probably be more interested in watching the football game than playing in a meaningless game in Philadelphia. On the other hand, we have the enthusiastic Phillies, a collection of young and hungry players that work hard every night and want to win badly.
Next, we have Pirates starter Gerrit Cole coming off the DL to make his first start since August 24. Cole has been out with elbow inflammation that has been a nagging issue all year. We highly doubt that he’ll be long for this game, as the Pirates will very likely have him on a strict pitch-count in such a meaningless game. Cole is a big part of the Pirates long-term plans so they are not going to risk doing damage in his first game back. That would not make any sense whatsoever. Prior to his DL stint, Cole posted a 1-3 record and a 6.08 ERA over 22 innings.
Then there’s Jeremy Hellickson, who pitches half his games at a hitter friendly park, leading many bettors to lay off him at home. Don't follow suit. Hellickson has a strong 3.66/3.51 ERA/xERA split and 1.14 WHIP at home. Those skills have the complete support of his underlying numbers too. Hellickson has also been electric when facing RH bats with 9.4 K’s/9 and 51% grounders. The best thing about this game however, is that we’re being offered a tag. Damn straight we’ll take it.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON +112 over Pittsburgh
It would be real easy to make a case for Steelers here. They are one of the true powers of the NFL, not to mention a model franchise that defines loyalty, dedication to winning and hard work. Pittsburgh is in the Super Bowl discussion at the start of every year and this year is no different, as many are predicting them to be the team to beat. However, we are not in the habit of recommending spotting road points on Monday Night because of the low win percentage that it has produced over the years. Besides that, the Redskins may be a lot tougher than most realize. Washington is just about ready to take that next step into the upper echelon of NFL teams and it could very well start here. The window to buy low on the ‘Skins will close quickly so we’re suggesting to get in now.
Remember, the Redskins won the NFC East last year at 9-7.Kirk Cousins finally got enough starts to become an NFL caliber quarterback and finished fifth in passer rating. One thing that no-one seems to be talking about is the Redskins hired Magic Man, Scot McCloughan before last year’s draft so by the time the season starts today about half the roster will have been turned over by him. One only needs to see what McCloughan did in San Fran and subsequently in Seattle to realize how good he is at what he does. In the words of his former mentor and boss, Ron Wolf, “Scot McCloughan has an exceptional...uncanny" gift. When Scot was young, he would sit in the basement and watch film on players with his father. He would also skip school to watch film.
Game film holds the most importance to McCloughan. Not the Combine, not Pro Days, not running routes on air with your team's former quarterback throwing you passes. To Scot, it's about toughness, heart and commitment. It's the thankless work a player does when the ball isn't in his hands. It's watching how a guy explodes off blocks, jumps up and down on the sideline when a teammate makes a big play, or throwing a block downfield to spring a teammate loose. Words like quick-twitch reflexes and low center of gravity frequent his vocabulary. This is now McCloughan’s team. He put together nearly 100% of this roster. The ‘Skins picked up Josh Norman but they also signed a few under-the-radar guys on defense. There are also 16 of Scot McCloughan’s draft picks (eight offense/eight defense) on the 53-man roster. With Kirk Cousins having come into his own last season, an evolving offensive line and a bevy of pass catchers at wide receiver and tight end, it is the ‘Skins offense that the opposition better fear. Washington is every bit as good as the Steelers and maybe even superior. Nobody knows it yet but they will soon enough. Redskins outright is the call.
SAN FRANCISCO +3 over Los Angeles
For once the circus surrounding a Chip Kelly coached team wasn't created by the man himself. After bailing on Oregon before the heat got white hot and dismantling the Eagles while alienating his entire locker room before he was canned, we weren't sure if we'd see “Philly Chip” anytime soon. But he's back and looking to turn around a 49ers team that is only a few years removed from a Super Bowl appearance. We could discuss the X's and O'x about how Blaine Gabbert will run the “Duck” offense or if Carlos Hyde can emerge as an elite runner but all the attention in this game will be on backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick. While we don't discuss religion or politics, this topic has become the elephant in the room. Coaches hate distractions and also hate anything else that seemingly interferes with their desire for absolute control but the 49ers are in a tough spot. Sure, they'd love to cut Kaepernick but it has less to do with his anthem stance and more to do with the millions of dollars they still owe him. San Fran doesn't want to pay Kaepernick to ride the pine but they are handcuffed here and a roster move involving him now will be about much more than football, even if it's all about football. Frisco Chip is an egomaniac that would probably trade his mother for a win here to “show up” the entire football world. We can’t even imagine the time he’s put in to prepare for a win on opening night. If you think it is 10 hours a day, you can probably double that.
Rams Coach Jeff Fisher was lucky to keep his job after another 8-8 season. Only a playoff berth could get Fisher another contract and that's not likely to happen, as the books have the Rams pegged for 6½ wins so it’s not looking so hot for him. The biggest shock from Rams camp is the progress of first overall pick Jared Goff, who won't even dress for tonight's game. Meanwhile, the man the Rams passed on, Carson Wentz already has an NFL win under his belt. Fair or not, these two QBs will be written about in tandem for as long as they are in the league together after going number one and number two in the draft. Fisher is desperate for wins and he knows a rookie QB has a low percentage chance to succeed early so he's covering his own ass with the devil he knows under center, Case Keenum. By the time Goff is ready to play, Fisher will likely be long gone. With distractions surrounding both teams it's easy to forget the unrealistic expectations Fisher set out for himself and his team. He's already gone out on a limb and said the Rams are capable of a 10-6 season or better. Anything less would be unacceptable for a group this talented. All of the pressure to perform well is on L.A. in this one.
San Fran has very low expectations as well but their season win odds are nearly right in line with the Rams at 5½. According to the books, what we have here are two teams headed down a similar road to avoid the basement in the AFC West. While the 49ers problems off the field have been discussed ad nauseam, maybe it’s a blessing that the attention has been off the 52 other players on their roster. The 49ers may be free to play fast and loose in this one with a heavily hyped visitor coming to town. The Rams are expected to win here but to ask them to cover points on the road in a division game is not something we are in favor of getting behind, especially on a Monday night. It's been a year since the 49ers have played a meaningful game. One could argue their last big game came in this exact same spot last season when they opened the year in the late game on MNF as a small home dog to another sexy offseason pick in the Vikings. San Fan rolled to a 20-3 victory and a similar result here would be of no surprise whatsoever.
Note: We are going to wait on this one and see where the line goes before pulling the trigger. We expect this number to settle in at +3 -105. We’ll update it and tweet it out when it’s official.
Power Sports
Colorado vs. Arizona
Pick: Colorado
I'll side with the Rockies here as they are - by far - the better team and available at a pretty short price. I feel for this team being under .500 b/c they've actually outscored opponents by 17 runs this season. They did just take two of three on the road from San Diego, however. Meanwhile, Arizona's problems at home continued over the weekend as they were swept by the Giants. Overall, the D'backs have lost six in a row.
I like Tyler Anderson, who starts here for Colorado. He has a 1.93 ERA his L3 starts and doesn't deserve to be winless on the road given his 1.013 WHIP there. His last start on the road saw him strikeout 10 hitters in just five innings. He followed that w/ 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Dodgers, at home. Last time out was another quality start, against the Giants, even though the team lost that one by a score of 3-2. Colorado is 5-1 this season at Chase Field, by the way.
In the offseason, Shelby Miller and Zack Greinke were both brought in to anchor what was supposed to be an improved Arizona rotation. The results have instead been disastrous, especially with Miller. Things in fact got so bad that he was demoted to Triple A right around the All-Star Break. This will be his third time starting since being called back up and last time out showed no signs of improvement as he allowed five runs and 11 hits in 4 1/3 IP. Miller is 0-2 in three starts vs. Colorado this year (9.19 ERA) and the D'backs' 25-45 home record needs to be reiterated.
Bruce Marshall
Pirates / Phillies Over 7.5
Gerrit Cole returns to the Pirates rotation after three weeks on the DL, with Clint Hurdle hoping his form has improved in the interim. Cole was struggling at the time he went on the shelf with elbow issues, allowing 17 ER over 21 2/3 IP (7.06 ERA) in his last four starts. Meanwhile Philly starter Jeremy Hellickson seems to have run out of gas, with the Phils losing his last three starts in which Hellickson has a 6.00 ERA.
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Under in the Steelers-Redskins game.
Going against the grain in this first Monday nighter of the season, as I think the absence of Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant for the Steelers, and the addition of Josh Norman to the Redskins secondary are enough "pieces-wise" to prevent this game from going over the very high total at FedEx Field.
Remember that it took a little while for the Redskins to find their groove last season, as they opened with an Under at home to Miami, and saw 4 of their first 5 overall stay Under the posted price.
As for the Steelers, they ended last year with Unders played in each of their last 4 games - playoffs included.
I know there are weapons a-plenty on the field this evening, and I certainly do expect this game to come close to landing Over the total, but in the end, I will look for this one to stay just Under the posted price on Monday night.
2* PITTSBURGH-WASHINGTON UNDER
Brad Wilton
The Rams and 49ers closed out the regular season last year with a 19-16 Under played at Levis Stadium, and I see them picking up right where they left off last season.
3 straight in this series, and 5 of the last 7 in the series have stayed Under the total, and while the Niners now have up-tempo Chip Kelly leading them, I don't see the talent level being there for San Francisco to put too many points on the scoreboard.
L.A. has played Under the total in 6 of their last 7 games, and each of their last 4 played against the N.F.C. West have also held Under the total.
San Francisco has held Under the total in 6 of their last 7 games played on natural grass.
Late night low-scoring game from Levis.
3* L.A. RAMS-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free play for Monday night is on the Washington Nationals, as they open a crucial series with the defending National League champion New York Mets. The Nationals have a nine-game lead over the New York Mets in the National League East race, but the defending pennant winners are in the midst of the N.L. wild card race.
The Nationals know the Mets have to win this series, so I expect Washington to take the Mets as a must-win series.
It's a good thought, since the Nationals need to finish with a flurry if they want to finish with the second-best record on the senior circuit. If that happens, they would get a possible homefield advantage for the playoffs.
Cheap price here, as the Nationals will get things done. Don't list pitchers in this one.
5* NATIONALS
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals, as they host the struggling Oakland Athletics. We're getting down to crunch time, and with the Royals just four games off the pace in the American League Wild Card race, it's series likes this they have to take advantage of.
Oakland has lost 27 of his last 40, and has dropped to a season-worst 22 games below .500 after a 3-2 setback to the Seattle Mariners yesterday. With 20 games left, the A's are assured of a losing record for a second straight season.
The Royals embark on an eight-game homestand they need to sweep - literally. There is no margin for error if the World Series champs want to defend their title in the postseason.
2* ROYALS -1.5
Bill Biles
Rams -2½
Rams have more talent on their roster than the 49ers and it will show on the field. 49ers like to run the ball a lot and the Rams have one of the best front 4 in the NFL. Look for the 49ers to struggle vs the run and the Rams make the niners to beat them by throwing with Gabbert. It wont happen.
Bob Balfe
Marlins +105
Miami has one more shot to push for that last wild card spot. This team has 6 games against the Braves and the Phillies over the next week. Win these games and you are right there in the mix the last few days of the season. This is a team I think can sneak in, but they need to win games against the worst team in the National League. I like them at this price.