Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, September 19th, 2016

Rob Vinciletti

Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 6

This game pits Bumgarner vs Kershaw in a good old fashioned pitchers duel. The Game has a 91% Totals system from the database that is based the Dodgers road loss and the Giants home loss. LA has gone under in 11 of the last 15 and Kershaw has gone under in 6 of 8 at home and has a 1.31 Home era. Bumgarner has a 2.70 Era this year. Look for a low scoring game that goes under the total.

Scott Spreitzer

Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Red Sox -125

This price feels like the linesmaker must be anticipating a letdown by the Boston Red Sox after their four-game sweep of the Yankees as Rick Porcello has been installed as a relatively small favorite over Dylan Bundy. Porcello is 20-4 and allowed a run and four hits in eight innings against Baltimore on Wednesday in a 1-0 Red Sox loss. The Orioles have a .192 team batting average versus Porcello this season and he has a 2.05 ERA so far in September. Meanwhile, Bundy escaped with a 6-3 win over the Sox on Tuesday while giving up three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings, but overall this season, the right-hander has allowed 10 runs and 25 hits in 15 innings against Boston. The Red Sox have won five of their last seven games in Baltimore.

Big Al

Atlanta vs. New York
Pick: Under

By any measure, Noah Syndergaard's first full season in the Majors has been a resounding success. There were some injury concerns with the young RH ace mid-way through the season, but Syndergaard has shrugged those off and continues to be a workhorse for his team in the thick of a playoff race. Syndergaard has logged 13 wins, a sparkling 2.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, and has reached 200 strikeouts. Earlier concerns about fatigue have been laid to rest, which is very important right now in light of the starting pitching injuries hampering this team (the latest being ace Jacob deGrom). Syndergaard is a deserving huge favorite tonight, but that doesn't mean he's going to win in a rout. The Mets offense hasn't been firing lately as they managed to plate just five runs in their three-games series against the Nats and just nine in their three weekend games vs. the lowly Twins. In fact, the Mets and Braves are exactly tied for 14th place in the NL in run production this season at 582 runs (only the Phillies are worse). The under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Power Sports

Washington vs. Miami
Pick: Washington

Back in April & May, the Nationals & Marlins met a total of 13 times (Wash went 7-6. Under 9-3-1). Interestingly, the division rivals haven't met since. What we've seen is the respective seasons pretty much go "according to script" w/ the Nats pacing the NL East & Miami hanging on the fringes of playoff contention.

I'd say to go w/ the Nats here. Yes, they did just drop a pair of games in Atlanta. But Miami lost two of three over the weekend as well, to the other division also-ran, Philadelphia. While a 6-2 loss, it should be pointed out that the Nats' game on Sunday was rain-shortened to seven innings. Something else that should be noted is Washington has the third best road record in baseball at 42-33. Miami is 4-12 as a home dog this year when priced between +100 and +125 on the ML.

For a sixth time, A.J. Cole will be called into starting duty for the Nats. He's faced the other three NL East teams, but not Miami. In two road starts, Cole has a 0.923 WHIP, which is very good. Going into yday, Washington had allowed an average of just 2.3 rpg its L7 games. Two things that are key factors here, and both will assist Cole, is that the Nats are #1 in baseball in both fielding percentage and bullpen ERA.

Miami pitching had been hit hard prior to Sunday. They'd given up 5.6 rpg over the last week w/ an opp batting average of .281. Wei-Yin Chen has not been a great addition to the staff w/ his 5.51 ERA and 1.421 WHIP at home. Washington is 18-13 in games this year vs. LH starters. They've also won 23 of 37 games vs. teams w/ a losing record.

Jim Feist

Arizona at San Diego
Pick: Over

Arizona shaking up the front office personnel with the firing of senior VP De Jon Watson. Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart may be next. A lot was expected of the D'backs this season after acquiring Zack Grienke. Branden Shipley will start tonight at San Diego, with a 4-3 record, 5.56 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Shipley takes the place of Rubby De La Rosa, who will not pitch the final two weeks. The Padres will start Paul Clemens, who is 3-5 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. The Padres hit right handers well, evidenced by their 10-3-1 O/U record in their last 14 games vs rightys. The D'backs have been a very good over team, posting a 35-14-2 O/U mark in their last 52 games. In addition, not only have five of the last six meetings gone OVER in San Diego, but the two clubs are 21-8 in their last 29 overall meetings.

Brandon Lee

Red Sox/Orioles Under 9

The books have set the total too high for tonight's AL East showdown between the Red Sox and Orioles. Both of these teams are known for their offenses, but this one has a pitchers duel written all over it. Boston will send out Cy Young candidate Rick Porcello, who is 20-4 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 30 starts. Porcello comes into this one in great form, having posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.682 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Baltimore will counter with talented youngster Dylan Bundy, who has been lights out at home this season. Bundy has a 2.67 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 6 starts at Camden Yards this season. UNDER is 11-2 in the Orioles last 13 against a team with a winning record, 23-5-1 in their last 29 home games and 5-1 in Bundy's last 6 home starts.

Jack Jones

Seattle Mariners +102

The Seattle Mariners get to face the team they are trailing for the final wild card spot in the American League in this series. They trail the Toronto Blue Jays by just two games, making this a huge series for the Mariners. Look for them to take Game 1 here tonight.

Taijuan Walker is having a solid season with a 4.28 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 22 starts. He is coming off his best start of the year, a 3-hit shutout in an 8-0 road win over the Angels. He struck out 11 batters in that game and has to be full of confidence coming into this one.

Marco Estrada has really struggled here down the stretch for the Blue Jays. He is 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA and 1.975 WHIP in his last three starts, giving up 12 earned runs and 25 base runners over 12 2/3 innings pitched.

Walker sports a 3.66 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in three career starts against Toronto, while Estrada has never beaten the Mariners, going 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Matt Josephs

Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Nationals -125

AJ Cole takes the mound as Washington tries to bounce back after losing a series in Atlanta. Cole has pitched well on the road and has 31 strikeouts to just nine walks. The righty has never faced the Marlins who are coming off losing a series in Philadelphia. The Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game at home. The Nats bullpen has just 12 blown saves this season. Wei-Yin Chen is coming off the DL to make the start. It'll be his first work since July 20th and he's only expected to throw 70-80 pitches. Chen has a 5.51 ERA in nine starts at home. Washington is 18-13 against left-handed starters hitting .261 in those games. They are averaging nearly five runs per game on the road. The Marlins bullpen has 27 losses and 26 blown saves. I like the Nats to get the win on Monday.

Jimmy Boyd

Seattle Mariners +102

Seattle is showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Blue Jays on Monday. The Mariners have been playing some of their best baseball down the stretch, as they come into this game having won 9 of their last 11 and fresh off a 7-3 win on Sunday.

This one all comes down to the starting pitching matchup, which I give a big edge to Seattle. The Mariners will send out Taijuan Walker, who since making a minor change after getting rocked on 9/3 by the Angeles has looked like a completely different pitcher. He was absolutely dominant in his last outing, giving up just 3 hits with 11 strikeouts over a complete game shutout.

He takes on a Blue Jays offense that has scored a combined 1 run in their last 2 games. Toronto counters on the mound with Marco Estrada, who has really struggled of late. Estrada has a 8.53 ERA and 1.975 WHIP in his last 3 outings and has allowed 4 or more runs 5 of his last 6 outings. On top of that, he's 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.647 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Mariners.

Sean Murphy

Angels vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -149

We're being asked to lay some chalk with the Rangers as they open their series with the Angels on Monday night, but the line is warranted, and perhaps lower than it actually should be, as far as I'm concerned. Jhoulys Chacin will take the ball for the Angels. He was a hard luck loser against the Mariners in his most recent start, allowing just one earned run over six innings in a 2-1 loss. That was at home, however. In his most recent road start he was tagged for five earned runs on seven hits over just four innings against those same Mariners. While there have been a few bright spots for the veteran right-hander, he's struggled for the most part in 2016 and faces a tough challenge against the Rangers in Arlington on Monday. Texas will counter with Martin Perez. At 10-10 with a 4.20 ERA, he's not going to garner much positive attention, but the fact is, he's pitched well lately, giving up two earned runs or less in each of his last three starts, lasting at least six innings each time out. The bottom line is, the Rangers are winning games with Perez on the hill - three in a row, in fact. Meanwhile, the Halos come in riding high off of back-to-back wins - but those came against the struggling Blue Jays at home. I like Texas' chances at a reasonable price on Monday.

Larry Ness

Boston vs. Baltimore
Pick: Boston

The Baltimore Orioles welcome the Boston Red Sox to Camden yards on Monday for a four-game series which will help shape the AL East race, as well as the wild card chase. Baltimore has hit more HRs (236) than any team in MLB, which has helped them to a ‘healthy’ 47-27 home record (the Orioles own MLB’s second-best home moneyline mark of plus-$1557). The Red Sox come to town off a four-game sweep of the hated-Yankees, the team's first sweep of a series of four or more games since June of 1990. The Orioles were only able to earn a split of their four-game home series against the last-place Rays and the weekend results leave Boston three games upon the 2nd-place Orioles in the division, with Baltimore owning a one-game advantage over Toronto for the the No. 1 wild card spot.

Boston’s Rick Porcello (20-4, 3.12 ERA) takes the mound Monday night searching for win No. 21, opposed by Baltimore rookie Dylan Bundy (9-5, 3.88 ERA). Bundy opened the season with 22 relief appearances but tonight’s start will be his 13th consecutive start. His first 2016 start came back on July 17 and he’s earned a decision in all but one of those starts, going 7-4 (team is 7-5). He’ll take the mound tonight, having won six of his last eight decisions, with FOUR of the victories coming against division leaders. Porcello had his six-game winning streak snapped by the Orioles last Wednesday at Fenway 1-0, losing despite allowing just four hits over eight innings (the ‘killer’ was a solo HR by Trumbo).

One could be troubled by Porcello's career record against Baltimore which is 3-8 with a 5.19 ERA in 14 starts (teams are 5-9) but Porcello has made a believer of me in 2016. He’s 13-2 in 17 starts since June 18 (Red Sox are 14-3) and he pitches for a team which leads all of MLB in runs scored (5.57 per), BA (.286) and OPS (.821). The Red Sox all but ended the Yankees' postseason hopes this past weekend and now can separate themselves from the Orioles these next four days in Baltimore. First things first. Porcello and Boston win tonight.

Mark Franco

Eagles vs. Bears
Play: Eagles +3

Carson Wentz showed he could handle the big stage in his much-ballyhooed NFL debut, but the lights will be even brighter when he leads the Philadelphia Eagles on the road to face the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. Wentz, the No. 2 overall pick overall pick out of North Dakota State, earned raved reviews nationally after guiding Philadelphia to a 29-10 win over Cleveland in its season opener. While Wentz is the new darling of Philadelphia his jersey was the No. 1 seller nationally after his starry debut. Jordan Matthews had a big first game with seven catches for 114 yards and a TD.

Chicago's offensive line struggled to protect quarterback Jay Cutler, who was sacked five times and pressured repeatedly while throwing for 216 yards with one touchdown and a costly interception. Speedy wide receiver Kevin White, the No. 7 overall pick in 2015 who missed his entire rookie campaign with a shin injury, had three receptions for 34 yards in his NFL debut and accepted the blame for running the incorrect route on Cutler's pick. The Bears' defense, which ranked in the bottom third of the league against the rush (120.9 yards per game) last season, allowed Houston to control the ball for more than 36 minutes.

Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September and are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.

David Banks

Philadelphia @ Chicago
Pick: Chicago -3

The last time the Chicago Bears faced the Philadelphia Eagles things did not turn out so well. In December of 2013 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, the Eagles, under then head coach Chip Kelly, got a nearly flawless performance from quarterback Nick Foles and 133 rushing yards from LeSean McCoy in a 54-11 destruction of the Bears. Kelly, Foles, and McCoy have all moved on from Philadelphia and it will be new head coach Doug Pederson and his rookie quarterback, Carson Wentz, heading to Soldier Field on Monday night.

The Bears would like to relive the last meeting between the two teams at Soldier Field, a Chicago victory in 2010, but will have to make significant strides in order to put a W in the win column. The Bears led Houston in Week 1 14-10 at the half, but gave up 13 unanswered points in the second in a 23-14 defeat.

It was a crucial Jay Cutler interception that proved to be too much for the Bears to overcome. Deep in their own territory in the third quarter, Cutler, who completed 16-of-29 passes for 216 yards on the day, looked for Chicago wide receiver Kevin White.

The second-year player, who missed all of last season with a stress fracture, stopped his route short, but Cutler thought he should have continued. Cutler appeared to throw to no one in particular, though Texans defensive back Andre Hal happened to be in the right place at the right time for the costly interception.

Houston would eventually score on a Nick Novak 28-yard field goal to give the Texans a 14-13 lead, one that they would not relinquish.

Wentz, who was the Eagles No. 3 QB just a few short weeks ago, became the starter when Philadelphia decided to trade Sam Bradford to Minnesota. The former North Dakota State star performed admirably in his NFL debut, a 29-10 victory over Cleveland, completing 22-of-37 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns. More importantly for Pederson and his staff, the young rookie committed zero turnovers. He handled the Browns pressure very well and even led a touchdown drive on his first NFL possession.

The Bears will have to find a way to protect Cutler – the Texans sacked him five times – and a way to run the football. Chicago managed just 73 yards on the ground last week. For the Eagles, another big performance from their rookie quarterback could leave them at 2-0 heading into a huge Week 3 showdown with in-state rival, Pittsburgh.

Kyle Hunter

Eagles vs. Bears
Play: Bears -3

The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Cleveland Browns at home last weekend. Carson Wentz looked good in his debut. It is really important to keep things in perspective though. Wentz was going up against the Cleveland Browns defense. At the end of the year, the Browns are likely to have one of the 3 or 4 worst defenses in the NFL.

Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have the same luxury this week. They are playing on the road at Soldier Field against a much improved Chicago Bears defense. The Bears went out and got Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman to form a tremendous duo at the linebacker position.

Chicago will be much improved this year, especially against the run. I see this price being an overreaction to a solid week one performance by the Eagles. Jay Cutler improved last year, and I see him having a similar season to last year again. The Bears have enough weapons around him to allow him to not have to do everything himself.

In the early going here, we have the sharps solidly lining up with the Bears. Though about 60% of the bets are on the Eagles, a little more than 75% of the money is on the Bears. Lay the short price with the home team here.