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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, September 19th, 2016

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Wunderdog

Chicago @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -122

This is the fourth straight road game for Chicago, and they are a bad road team. They've lost the last two here by a combined 13-5, part of a 17-37 run on the road. The White Sox are 64-132 away against a team with a winning record. Chicago goes with lefty Carlos Rodon (7-9), who was ripped for six runs on nine hits and three walks in five innings by Cleveland on Wednesday. Batters are hitting .281 off him for the season (.287 on the road), and the White Sox are 3-7 in his last 10 road starts. Kansas City is 16-7 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, plus 46-22 versus the AL Central. Kansas City starter Yordano Ventura has a winning record at home, and the Royals are 10-3 when he faces a team with a losing record. The team is also 16-6 in Ventura's last 22 home starts. Chicago is a bad offensive team, #24 in runs scored, #22 in slugging, and on-base percentage. With the White Sox 15-36 against the Royals, grab the home team.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 1:48 pm
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Chris Jordan

I'm giving you the Philadelphia Eagles tonight, strictly as an opinion play, over the Chicago Bears tonight.

I wasn't sure what to make of the Philadelphia Eagles, with so much unrest with the personnel, but I have to admit, I like what I saw from Carson Wentz, the former standout quarterback from North Dakota State.

Yes, that North Dakota State.

Look, I am well aware of how much Vic Fangio is being hyped in Chicago, as the defensive coordinator is expected to have this stop unit revamped for a run through the NFC Central. But tonight, even at home, I think he will have his hands full with Wentz, who carved up Cleveland in his pro-debut last week.

Wentz might even be amped up for this game after his alma mater just knocked off Iowa on Saturday, proving how good the Bison are, and that players like him are no fluke.

Again, this is just an opinion play, and I'd much rather you play my baseball play tonight. But for fun, take a shot on the Eagles Moneyline.

1* EAGLES

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:32 pm
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Brad Wilton

Monday's comp play is the Mets on the Run Line over the Braves.

New York is in prime position now to lock down a Wild Card spot, and perhaps even host the Wild Card game if they stay at the pace they are on!

The Mets have won 20 of their last 27 games after sweeping their interleague series with Minnesota over the weekend, and now they will face an Atlanta team that they have taken 4 of their last 6 against.

Noah Syndergaard is on a 3-1 run his last 5 starts with a 1.06 ERA, and he will be facing the winless Aaron Blair for Atlanta.

Blair is now 0-6 with an 8.28 ERA for the season, and is 0-2 with an over 8 ERA in his 3 starts against the Mets this season.

Despite a rash of injuries to their pitching staff - de Grom the latest to be lost for the season! - the Mets continue to surge.

Lay the run and a half with the Metropolitans tonight at Citi Field.

3* N.Y. METS -1.5

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:33 pm
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Scott Delaney

My free play for tonight is on those pesky Colorado Rockies, at home against the St. Louis Cardinals. While the Redbirds are trying to stay relevant in their quest for the postseason, the Rockies are simply scrapping to stay alive.

They've won three in a row, and are 40-35 in Denver, where they own pitchers.

Colorado, which is seven games back in the National League wild-card race, leads the majors with a home batting average of .303. The Rockies have also belted 108 home runs at Coors Field - tied for second most at home in the bigs - but sit atop the majors with a whopping 478 runs scored in the Mile High City. Only two other teams (Boston and Cleveland) have scored at least 400 runs in their own park.

The Cardinals, granted, are the No. 1 scoring team on the road, but I think the surging Rockies get the edge in this one.

4* ROCKIES

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:33 pm
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Jeff Benton

Your Monday freebie is the Red Sox over the Orioles in the start of this key four game set from Camden Yards.

Boston just put the wraps on a four game home sweep of the New York Yankees, and they will have the game's only 20-game winner of the hill tonight in Rick Porcello.

Porcello did lose his last outing against Baltimore, as he allowed a solo homer to Mark Trumbo, and that proved to be the difference in the 1-0 O's win.

Dylan Bundy will go for the home team, and he did defeat Boston his last time out, and stands at 2-0 over his last 3 starts. Bundy's ERA though is a little high for my liking at 4.91 in those 3 assignments.

This should be a fun week in Charm City, but with a 3 game lead now in the division, I will ride the Red Sox for this series opener on Monday.

2* BOSTON

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:34 pm
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Dave Price

New York Mets -1.5 -130

The New York Mets continue playing great baseball as they try and close in on a wild card spot in the National League. They are 20-7 in their last 27 games overall and saving their best baseball for last. Now they should have no problem beating the Braves by 2 runs or more today, so we'll back them on the run line. Ace Noah Syndergaard is 13-8 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 28 starts, including 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Aaron Blair has yet to earn a win this season, going 0-6 with an 8.23 ERA and 1.775 WHIP in 12 starts. Blair is 0-2 with an 8.05 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Mets, all of which have come this season.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:34 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

CHICAGO -3 over Philadelphia

The Eagles and their new rookie QB played a solid 60 minutes of football in their season opener against Cleveland. The Eagles were a small 3½-point choice over the Earthtones and covered easily in a 29-10 victory. Well, if there is one thing we learned from yesterday and something we mentioned several times in our Week 2 analysis is that one should never put a lot of emphasis on one game, especially the first one of the year. In other words, if last week never happened and Philadelphia was opening in Chicago, the Bears would likely be a-6 point choice this week instead of the current price of -3. That provides us with an opportunity.

What we know for sure is that the Eagles defeated a dumpster fire team that blew a 20-2 lead yesterday and that didn’t even bother showing up against Philly in Week 1. In the process of that 29-10 victory last week, the market got a good look at Carson Wentz and liked what they saw. While Wentz may turn out to be solid, one game does not make a career and now in his first road start, he and the Eagles are getting the pity-three that a home team gets awarded in a “toss up” game. That is not right at all.

While the Eagles were beating up on the Brownies, the Bears were 9-point losers in Houston but there was a lot to like about Chicago. First, they only took four penalties the entire game, which shows a dedication to discipline. Second, they had 146 yards in kick return yardage, which could help set them up in some very good field position here. On the road, Chicago was in that game the entire way and even took a 14-10 lead into the break. Houston’s defense has proven through the first two weeks to be tough as shoe leather so we have to trust that the Eagles defense will be much more to Jay Cutler’s liking.

Bears Coach, John Fox has now brought in enough new guys on defense to start getting it together. The Bears also have one game under their belt and it was actually a good one, as they allowed just 23 points and just 215 yards through the air. It cannot be stressed enough that Fox has built a run-stuffing pass-rushing front seven in an effort to swallow the Vikings, minimize Eddie Lacy’s efforts and force Rodgers to make every drive count. The linebackers should be much better and the secondary has the potential to be better too. Overall, the Bears defense looks like it will be much better in 2016 as it evolves and they are putting a lot of emphasis on this game because a loss to Philly means a step backward. After Philadelphia won in Week 1, they now become an attractive fade in Week 2. Chicago is figuring things out at the positions that cost them big last year. The Bears have far better unity than last season's squad, though, and, despite unimpressive early returns, they have the coaching and QB to make some noise in the “Black and Blue” Division. Jay Cutler is everyone’s favorite whipping boy but selling him short here would likely be a mistake.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:35 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

North America -½ +134 over Russia

Regulation only. The first game of this event for the Russians highlighted a lot of the problems they seem to have in international competition. For nearly three periods, the Russians looked uninspired and were unable to capitalize on a late goaltending change for the Swedes that saw Jacob Markstrom replace Henrik Lundqvist. The Russians trailed 2-0 heading into the final minute before Alex Ovechkin scored on a wrist shot with 33-seconds to go. Ovi thought he had tied it with 8-seconds left but that goal was overturned because he batted the puck with his hand. That's become the story of the game for Russia but it's overshadowing an otherwise poor performance. In the end, it is the same ‘ol same ‘ol for Russia with that being a collection of really strong talent that lacks the intangibles it takes to beat the other powers that be. Excuses for Alex Ovechkin’s teams’ in big games are becoming redundant too.

There has never been a team “North America” so perhaps that is why they are not getting the credit they deserve. This is without question the greatest collection of young talent ever assembled. Having never played together before, the North Americans looked near unbeatable against Finland last night. The final score was 4-1 but it might as well have read 10-1 because that’s how dominant these kids were. Creating a multiple of quality scoring chances and applying the pressure for 60 minutes, this was one of the greatest displays of how hockey was meant to be played. There is an old adage in hockey that says there is no defense for speed and in that regard, the North Americans have an abundance of it and that, too, was on full display last night. Lastly, with several Canadians on the squad, including Auston Matthews, David McConnor, Jack Eichel and others, this crowd in Toronto is rooting for the North Americans as much as they are for the Canadians. The joint was electric last night and these kids responded with a focused, determined and near flawless effort last night. An even better perfromance is likely tonight now that they know how much fun this is going to be.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:36 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

SEATTLE +102 over Toronto

The Blue Jays went into Anaheim this past weekend and lost the final two games to an Angels’ team that had previously lost 12 of 13 games, which included getting swept in a four-game set by Toronto’s opponent tonight, the Mariners. The Jays took the first two games in Anaheim against two very weak starters in Jered Weaver and rookie Daniel Wright (7.62 ERA) but could not carry that momentum into Saturday and Sunday. In fact, it was so bad that Toronto scored one lousy run combined against two more weak starters, Ricky Nolasco (4.78) and Alex Meyer (5.62 ERA). Facing perhaps the worst four starters in succession that is possible at this level, not to mention a horrible bullpen, the Jays did nothing to help their playoff chances and will now take a huge step up in class when facing Seattle and Taijuan Walker. That Toronto is favored here is insane.

Walker was sent down to Triple-A in early August due to maturity issues. It's a fact that will give him some nice profit potential in 2017 and down the stretch this year, especially given the skills he posted in the first half. Walker has filthy stuff. He has outstanding control with a BB/K split of 26/103 in 118 innings. His outstanding command has come against both LH and RH bats, which is rare for most. It's all here; stuff, skills, size, and pedigree so the next step is using this late-season demotion as a motivational tool. This kid can pitch.

We’re not even going to go over Marco Estrada here. You all know our position on him and it has not changed. Estrada has been a big fade target of ours since last season and this year it has paid off in spades. If he wins here, so be it but he’s a #5 starter (at best) that is priced like he’s as good as Marcus Stroman when he’s worse than James Shields.

OAKLAND +111 over Houston

Brad Peacock is another starting pitcher that cannot be favored on the road, especially when he pitches for a team that is under .500 on the road. Peacock is 28-years old. He wasn't even on the Astros depth chart when this season began but several injuries to the Astros combined with poor results from their other promoted starters has resulted in Peacock getting a chance. Peacock has mostly pitched in the minors for the past six years. He suffered a left intercostal strain in April of last year, which effectively ended his season. The outlook wasn't promising prior, though, given all those fly balls and little control of his offerings, which is a risky combo. Once a promising farmhand with strikeout rate upside (a long time ago) Peacock’s 5.06 career xERA assures us that an investment is not warranted anymore.

The A’s are one of the hottest teams in the majors. They have won six of their past seven games with only loss over that span occurring on Friday in a game they led 6-0. Oakland won six of those seven against Kansas City and Texas. The A’s have scored five runs or more in seven straight and own the league’s best BA and OPS over that span. Another order of business for the A’s would be to crush the Astros hopes of making the playoffs.

Jharel Cotton has made just two starts with one being of the pure quality variety. Cotton was obtained via trade from the Dodgers at the trade deadline and has a knack for production on the hill. After showing sublime peripherals (9.8 K’s/9, 1.16 WHIP) in the High-A California League two seasons ago, the 5-foot-11 right-hander snowballed his momentum into a 2015 campaign in which he compiled 11.1 K’s/9 and a 2.19 ERA across four levels of the minors. Cotton remains far from a finished product on the mound, but with a tailing mid-90s fastball and a plus, whiff-inducing changeup to his credit, he has excelled at every level and is very worthy of backing as a dog here. We get the better pitcher, we get the home team, we get the team in better form that is seeing beach balls at the plate and we also get a price. Pencil us in for that.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:36 pm
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Bruce Marshall

Angels at Rangers
Pick: Angels

The Angels continue their strange hot-and-cold pattern, reviving over the weekend vs. the Blue Jays to win the last two of that series after looking awful in losing their previous five. Lo and behold, journeyman starter Jhoulys Chacin looks capable of providing the Halos with a real shot to pester division-leading Texas tonight after a very solid six innings last Wednesday vs. the Mariners.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:37 pm
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Harry Bondi

Eagles / Bears Under 42.5

We had a nice winner here on Sunday with the under in the Bengals-Steelers game and tonight we’ll call for another low-scoring affair. Carson Wenz and the Eagles offense played well last week, but that was at home against the Brown. Tonight, the rookie QB gets his first road start under the Monday Night Football spotlight against a team that has actual game film on him, which Cleveland did not have last week in the opener. The Bears have also gone under in 10 of their last 16 home games and aren’t exactly a team that is going to light up the scoreboard this season.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:38 pm
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Bob Balfe

Mariners -105

The Mariners are on a roll right now heading down the stretch. Toronto is fading fast and in a race to the finish line I am always going to go with the team that has their foot on the gas. Seattle should take care of a Toronto team at home that is not hitting the ball well the last few games.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 2:39 pm
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Bruce Marshall

Rockies +102

The Cards are back in the NL wild card mix after scrambling for a split of the 4-game weekend set at San Francisco. But this is a tricky assignment tonight in Denver vs. a Rockies team that stirred over the weekend in an impressive sweep of the Padres. Colorado starter Tyler Anderson is 5-1 at home this season, off of solid Coors Field efforts vs. the Dodgers and Giants (just 2 ER allowed in 13 2/3 IP).

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 4:47 pm
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Buster Sports

Los Angeles at Texas
Play: Texas -148

The Texas Rangers have lost 3 of their last 4 games and tonight they start a 3 game series against the LA Angels. Although the Rangers have a nice comfortable lead in the AL West you never want to go into the playoffs playing terrible baseball. Tonight we believe they have a nice matchup to get them back on their winning ways. The starters for tonight's game are for the Angels RH Jhoulys Chacin (5-8, 5.43 ERA) and he faces the Rangers LH Martin Perez (10-10, 4.20 ERA) Chacin has actually been pitching well of late for the Angels,but those games have been all at home.Today however its a road game, and Chacin has been a horror show on the the road. He has a 1-6 record with a 7.40 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.796 in 11 road starts. Not good. As for Perez, he has been lights out of late. In his last 3 starts he has a 1.96 ERA with a WHIP of 1.30. At home Perez has been pitching excellent all year. In 15 home starts he has a 2.65 ERA with a WHIP of 1.36. We had this line at 170 we are getting great value only laying 148 and we will lay it. Backing our selection is the fact that the Rangers are 10-1 in Perez's last 11 home starts.

 
Posted : September 19, 2016 4:48 pm
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