Free Picks for Monday, September 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
SPORTS WAGERS
Dallas -3 over ARIZONA
Dallas got whacked by the Broncos 42-17, but the biggest story coming out of that game on the Cowboys' side was the shade thrown on running back Ezekiel Elliot after he quit on a pair of Dak Prescott interceptions, one of which led to a touchdown when he could have made a tackle on the return. Zeke also had his worst rushing day as a pro with eight yards on nine carries. The Cowboys are a premier team and just about everything that happens in Big D is blown out of proportion. Dallas was a small road favorite going into Denver after coming off a high-profile Sunday night win over the Giants, but now that New York is 0-2 after an embarrassing loss of its own on Monday night, that victory over Big Blue doesn't hold as much weight in the market as it maybe did a week ago. We've heard this week that the blueprint is now out on how to beat the Cowboys, stop Zeke and make Prescott throw. These are the same guys that were slobbering all over Dak after he threw just four interceptions all of last season. In a week to week league like the NFL we are always looking for over and under-reactions and a lopsided loss like the one the ‘Boys suffered in Denver really stands out when you are supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. There is no shame in losing in the Mile High City, as the Broncos have been the best home team in the NFL for over four decades. The unpleasant way in which it went down should only motivate the Cowboys to be better this week when they take a big step down in competition with the entire country watching on a Monday night game in the desert.
Our fade of the Cardinals continues this week. Arizona is also 1-1 but they’ve played two of the ugliest games of football we’ve ever seen to open a season. They’ve lost their best player with running back David Johnson out for at least a couple of months and what remains of their offense looks old and busted. Carson Palmer is at the end of the line and looks like he couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn right now, His 54.8 completion percentage this season proves it. Palmer has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2) and the only reason the Cardinals aren’t taking as much heat as the Giants are is because nobody without a stake has bothered to watch either of their games. It's not just the surface stats that are showing Palmer's decline but his numbers under the hood as well. When looking at Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (which gives the value of a QB's performance compared to a replacement level, and then translated into yardage) Palmer is a -35, which puts him 25th in the league, sandwiched between Mike Glennon and Jacoby Brissett, not exactly elite company. What's more, the Cardinals offense as a whole has a negative DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rating of -24% which ranks 27th in the league and puts them with the likes of the Jets and Texans through two games, but neither of those clubs had the high preseason expectation of the Cardinals. Arizona was very fortunate to have won last Sunday, as the undermanned Colts led for most of that game. The Cards were able to capitalize on a Jacoby Brissett interception early in overtime in Colts territory. Arizona was lucky to take the game into OT and just as fortunate to win it.
We’re always preaching not to overreact to one or two performances so one has to question whether we’re overreacting to Arizona’s two ugly performances. That’s a fair question that requires an answer. We started attacking Arizona right out of the gate and suggested that this year is a carryover from last season in which the Cardinals got progressively worse each week. We’re reacting to a 16-game schedule last plus two games this year in which the Cardinals more often than not looked sloppy and old and were the inferior team on the field most weeks. Arizona has not improved while Dallas is an outstanding football team that is coming off one bad week. We absolutely love that Zak Prescott took responsibility for last week’s debacle, as that shows leadership and inspires everyone to rally. The overreaction here is to Dallas getting torched last week but great teams rebound big time and Dallas couldn’t have handpicked a softer opponent than the incapable and disheveled group that they’ll see here. Rarely are we in favor of spotting road points but there are exceptions from time to time and we trust that the market is way off on this one.
Randall The Handle
Cowboys (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1)
The Cardinals have lulled everyone to sleep after a pair of lackluster efforts in first two with last week’s narrow win over hapless Colts being most alarming. Expect a bounce back as Arizona returns to the desert for home debut and on a Monday night to boot. The Cowboys are hurting at various positions and this after looking less than ordinary after drubbing in Denver last week. Dallas’ strong offensive line from a year ago took a hit this offseason and is not nearly as effective as it was in 2016. Ezekiel Elliot is putting up pedestrian numbers so far and Dallas’ secondary was exposed as the suspect unit many had identified. Cowboys have now lost four straight on road along with just two covers in past nine games overall. They hardly deserve to be chalk in this one. TAKING: CARDINALS +3
Mike Lundin
Astros vs. Rangers
Play: Astros -123
The Houston Astros have already clinched the division, but they're still trying to catch Cleveland for the best record in the American League. The Rangers meanwhile need to sweep Astros to have postseason chance, but I think they'll take a loss already here in the first game of the series.
The Astros hand the ball to Collin McHugh (3-2, 3.44 ERA) who has been lights-out of late. He's coming off a 3-1 win over the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday, when he allowed one run on five hits in five innings to improve to 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA over his last five starts. The Astros are a sensational 31-6 in McHugh's last 37 starts vs. American League West opponents.
Texas turns to Andrew Cashner (10-10, 3.44 ERA) who has been tagged with eight runs on 12 hits and eight walks in 10 1/3 innings through his last two starts. He's 1-4 with a 4.06 ERA in five starts against Houston on the season.
The Astros are 6-2 in McHugh's last eight starts against Texas, and this looks like a good spot to back the visitors.
Alex Smart
Mariners vs. A's
Play: A's +105
The A's , feature a roster packed with promising young talent, which is evident by a current 7 game win streak and a 14-3 run over their past 17 games. The As just completed a three-game series sweep of the Texas Rangers with an 8-1 route on Sunday afternoon at the Coliseum . The hungry looking Athletics once again look like viable candidates to deliver the cash this Monday evening vs a downtrodden Mariners team that has lost 8 of their L/9 games. I know they go against a Seattle icon in Felix Hernandez, but the former all star and Cy Young award winner, has been dealing with arthritic issues in his shoulder all season long, and has been laboring of late recording a 7.30 ERA in his L/3 starts.
OAKLAND is 7-0 L/7 against the money line in home games after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival this season winning by an average of 3.6 rpg. OAKLAND is 25-16 against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League West.Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Athletics are 8-0 in their last 8 home games.Athletics are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.
MLB team like the As - after 5 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49%) are 45-16 dating back 25 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Also MLB team like the As - after 7 or more consecutive wins, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a losing team are 31-12 for a 72% conversion rate dating back 20 season!
Scott Rickenbach
Braves / Mets Under 9 Game 1
With this being part of a double-header and with it being a match-up of two teams just "playing out the string" on the season, you definitely could see some "ugly" lineups in Game 1 on warm afternoon for late September in New York. Some of the better players will likely sit this one out and play in the evening match-up. Either way, there is not much intensity right now from these teams and the Braves 2-0 loss (easy under) was their 4th straight under. Overall, Atlanta is on an 8-2 run to the under in their last 10 games. Though this pitching match-up features two young pitchers who lack good numbers on the season, both these starters have spent some recent time in the bullpen that has helped them work back into proper form. The Braves Lucas Sims has allowed just 8 hits in his last 11.1 innings and that included a solid start last week. As for the Mets Chris Flexen, he has allowed just 3 hits in 5 innings working out of the bullpen this month. Also, he has gone at least 5 innings while allowing 3 earned runs or less in each of his 3 home starts this season. A pair of rookie hurlers facing two struggling lineups today as the Braves have been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 games and the Mets have been held to an average of just 3.3 runs per game in their last 6 games. The under is on a 16-8 run in Braves games against teams with a losing record. The Mets have been a big "over team" this season but not in day games. They've actually had more unders than overs in day games this season and I look for this late afternoon game to stay under the total as well.
Cappers Club
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½
The Red Sox and the Blue Jays face off on Monday, and with this game looking like a blowout, we like the Red Sox at -1.5.
On the mound for the Blue Jays is Brett Anderson who has been terrible since coming over from the Cubs.
In his last start against the Royals he only went 1.1 innings and gave up eight hits and seven earned runs.
The Red Sox are a much better offense then the Royals and I expect them to do the same type of damage in this one.
On the mound for the Red Sox is Drew Pomeranz who has been the second best pitcher all year for the team.
He comes into this game off a start where he went 6.1 innings against the Orioles and gave up five hits and zero runs.
Ben Burns
Chicago at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -117
On Friday, Ben Burns easily won his free play on Winnipeg. Saturday's complimentary release resulted in a "never in doubt cover" on Boston College. Yesterday's free ticket saw the Bills beat Denver, outright. Of course, Burns was also busy winning his "big" plays. He'd follow up a 4-2 Saturday by delivering a PERFECT 6-0 "SWEEP" on Sunday, 5-0 in the NFL.
Also on a 20-2 HEATER at the ballpark, Ben takes a look at Monday's Cubs/Cards contest:
Lester got roughed up last time out, surrendering seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. He'd walk three batters without recording a strikeout. That gives him 11 walks his last three starts, more than his 10 K's.
By comparison, Weaver has 20 K's against ZERO strikeouts, over his last three starts.
Not surprisingly, Weaver has an awesome 1.08 ERA and 0.84 WHIP his last three. Lester, on the other hand, has a poor 5.31 ERA and an ugly 1.837 WHIP over his last three.
Talk about making the most of one's opportunity. Since Wainwright's injury freed up a spot in the rotation, Weaver has recorded a 1.49 ERA. In fact, he's the first Cards' rookie since the 1940's to win seven straight decisions.
While its true that Lester has enjoyed success in this series overall, he did lose his last start here at St. Louis. Given the venue and current form of the starters, I feel the Cards are a bargain. Consider St. Louis.
Mike Anthony
Kansas City vs. New York
Play: New York -165
Sabathia picked up the victory in his last start, hurling six innings of two-run, six-hit ball to defeat the Twins at Yankee Stadium. He faced Kansas City on May 16, holding the Royals scoreless on five hits over 6 2/3 frames. Yanks and their strong bullpen get the win on Monday afternoon.
Dallas vs. Arizona
Play: Under 47
Dallas and Arizona bear deserved reputations as potent offensive teams. Both are blessed with playmakers, but are dealing with injury issues. Arizona star running back David Johnson is out injured, while Dallas QB Dak Prescott was banged up Sunday against the Broncos. Moreover, both clubs have been stout on the defensive side thus far. Arizona is allowing just 2.8 yards per carry, fourth fewest in the NFL. If the Cardinals’ defense remains stingy against the run, the gimpy Prescott will be compelled to create plays. Look for Dallas to establish the rushing attack and this game to stay under.
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Oakland
Pick: Seattle -109
A check of the standings will show that the Oakland A's are 72-83, leaving them in last-place in the AL West, 23 games back of first-place Houston. However, with a roster packed with promising rookies, Oakland has gone 14-3 over its last 17 games. The A's just completed a three-game home sweep of the Texas Rangers with Sunday's 8-1 victory, which all but eliminated the Rangers from postseason contention. Texas is now 5 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second American League wild card with Sunday's loss and has just seven games remaining in the season. Speaking of playoff elimination, the 75-81 Mariners were officially eliminated from wild card contention with Sunday's 4-2 loss against Cleveland, Seattle's eighth loss in its last nine games.
It's been exciting," Oakland manager Bob Melvin said before Sunday's game. "This is probably the best feeling we've had as a team all year, here recently. It's the Matt Chapmans and the Matt Olsons and the Chad Pinders, all these guys that have come up and really given us hope and an expectation and confidence going into next season." Oakland goes for an eighth consecutive win tonight against Seattle, with rookie Daniel Gossett (4-9, 5.38 ERA) squaring off against Seattle's Felix Hernandez (5-5 4,.57 ERA). Gossett is coming off a no-decision at Detroit on Tuesday, despite allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks over just 4.2 innings. However, he had allowed three runs or less in each of his previous four starts, but pitching with a lack of support, went only 1-3 in that span.
Seattle's Hernandez just returned from the DL in mid-September and in an oddity, has made his last three starts, all against Texas. He started against Texas back on July 31, then spent about six weeks on the DL and since his return, his two starts back have also come against the Rangers. It's been an injury-plagued season for the former Cy Young winner but he's 24-9 with a 2.62 ERA over 45 careers starts against the A's (team is 31-14).
Sure, the A's are "having fun" playing with no pressure but Hernandez's 24 wins against the A's are his most victories vs any team in his career. Meanwhile, the 24-year-old Gossett is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Mariners, both coming here in 2017. Yes, the A's are enjoying their longest winning streak since a nine-game run in April of 2013 but tonight, I'm betting on the 'King!'
Jimmy Boyd
Houston vs. Texas
Play: Texas +113
I like the value here with Texas as short home dog against division rival Houston on Monday. The Astros are in a difficult spot here coming off a loss to the Angels at home on Sunday Night Baseball. I look for the Rangers to take advantage of that opportunity and keep their season alive with a win here. Texas' playoff hopes are hanging on by a threat, as they need to basically win out and get some help. I just don't see this team throwing in the towel until it's official.
I also like the pitching matchup here for the Rangers. Texas sends out Andrew Cashner, who has a sensational 2.71 ERA in 12 home starts and also owns a respectable 3.65 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Astros. Houston counters with Collin McHugh, who has an ugly 5.28 ERA in 6 road starts this season and a 4.71 ERA in his career against Texas.
Rangers are 7-3 in their last 10 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and are an impressive 9-2 in their last 11 against a top level team that is winning more than 60% of their games.
Teddy Davis
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -134
The Nationals don't have much to play for here and I believe that is why we are seeing the Phillies as such big favorites here. Nola is coming off back to back gem outings here at home going 7 innings in both and only giving up a total of 3 earned runs. He is 9-4 on the season at home with a 2.98 ERA.
Joey Juice
It's the Mets versus the Braves in the first of a double-header on Monday from Queens, New York.
Two youngsters on the mound for this one, the Braves will go with Lucas Sims the 23 year-old right-hander, while the Mets will go with Chris Flexen, also 23, and also a right-hander.
A look inside the number shows that the over is the only way to go in this game, especially on Monday. The over is 20-6-2 in the Braves last 28 games on Monday.
When the Braves play against the right-hander the game almost always goes over, as they are16-7 in their last 23 road games against a right-hander.
It's similar for the Mets. The New York Mets have gone over to the tune of 15-6-1 in their last 22 games against a right-handed starter.
More importantly the Mets have gone over in 6 of their last 8 games in the first game of a series and they have gone over 18 of their last 27 games overall.
Play Game 1 over.
2* ATLANTA-N.Y. METS OVER - GAME 1
Jeff Benton
My Monday freebie is the Yankees on the Run Line over the Royals.
It does not appear likely that the Yanks will be able to catch the Red Sox for the A.L. East crown, but New York is the # 1 Wild Card seed at this writing, and they still need to secure the home-field advantage for that game next Tuesday, October 3rd, so look for the Pinstripers to stay hot in the Bronx.
The Yankees are on an 8-1 run their last 9 games played at home, and they will turn to CC Sabathia who has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts on the hill.
New York has won 6 of the past 8 series meetings, and they are a dominant 42-16 at home against Kansas City over the years.
Jakob Junis will counter for the Royals who have dropped 5 of their last 8 games heading into this quick one-game make-up contest.
Yanks to roll by 2 runs or more.
3* N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Chip Chirimbes
Cowboys at Cardinals
Play: Cardinals +3
For the most part I would love to 'fade' both these clubs. First, it is easy to play against Dallas as the Cowboys are the media and public darlings but I know how bad the Cardinals really are. After their performance last time out and with the scrutiny that has been focused on Ezekiel Elliot's lack of hustle Dallas should have a more concerted effort. Arizona, meanwhile staged a narrow come-from-behind win at Indianapolis which exploited their weaknesses after an opening loss at Detroit. This is the Cardinals first game at home in over a month and that will help.